NguMedea Benjamin noNicolas JS Davies, World BEYOND War, UJanuwari 25, 2023
IBulletin yeAtomic Scientists isandula ukukhupha iClock yayo yomhla weDoomsday yowama-2023. mazwi, elibiza eli “xesha lengozi engazange ibonwe ngaphambili.” Iye yaphucula izandla zewotshi yaya kutsho kwimizuzwana engama-90 ukuya ezinzulwini zobusuku, nto leyo ethetha ukuba ihlabathi lisondele kwintlekele yehlabathi kunanini na ngaphambili, ngenxa yokuba ungquzulwano lwaseUkraine luye lwawandisa kakhulu umngcipheko wemfazwe yenyukliya. Olu vavanyo lwenzululwazi kufuneka luvuse iinkokeli zehlabathi kwimfuno engxamisekileyo yokuzisa amaqela abandakanyekayo kwimfazwe yaseUkraine kwitafile yoxolo.
Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, impikiswano malunga neengxoxo zoxolo ukusombulula ingxabano iye yajikeleza kakhulu malunga ne-Ukraine neRussia ekufuneka zilungele ukuzisa etafileni ukuze kupheliswe imfazwe kunye nokubuyisela uxolo. Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yokuba le mfazwe ayikho nje phakathi kweRashiya ne-Ukraine kodwa iyinxalenye "yeMfazwe eNtsha yoCold" phakathi kweRashiya ne-United States, ayisiyiyo iRashiya ne-Ukraine kuphela ekufuneka ithathele ingqalelo into abanokuyizisa etafileni ukuyiphelisa. . I-United States kufuneka kwakhona ithathele ingqalelo amanyathelo enokuthi iwathathe ukusombulula impixano esisiseko neRussia ekhokelele kule mfazwe kwasekuqaleni.
Ingxaki ye-geopolitical eyabeka inqanaba lemfazwe e-Ukraine yaqala ngokuphulwa kwe-NATO thembiso ukuba ingandi eMpuma Yurophu, kwaye yandiswa sisibhengezo sayo ngo-2008 sokuba iUkraine iya ekugqibeleni ukujoyina lo mfelandawonye womkhosi ochasene neRussia.
Emva koko, ngo-2014, i-US-backed ubukuqo-mbuso ngokuchasene norhulumente onyuliweyo waseUkraine kubangele ukuqhekeka kweUkraine. Kuphela yi-51% yabantu baseUkraine abaphononongwayo baxelele i-poll yaseGallup ukuba bayayiqaphela mthethweni karhulumente wasemva kobhukuqo-mbuso, kunye nabaninzi eCrimea naseDonetsk naseLuhansk kumaphondo avotele ukuzikhwebula eUkraine. ICrimea yaphinda yazimanya neRashiya, yaye urhulumente omtsha waseUkraine waqalisa imfazwe yamakhaya nxamnye nelizwe elizibiza ngokuba “liRiphabhliki Yabantu” yaseDonetsk naseLuhansk.
Imfazwe yamakhaya yabulala abantu abaqikelelwa kwi-14,000, kodwa isivumelwano seMinsk II ngo-2015 saseka ukupheliswa komlilo kunye nendawo ekhuselekileyo ecaleni kwendlela yolawulo, kunye ne-1,300 yamazwe ngamazwe. OSCE abahloli bokupheliswa komlilo kunye nabasebenzi. Umgca wokuphelisa imfazwe wawubambe kakhulu iminyaka esixhenxe, kunye neengxwelerha liweyo kakhulu unyaka nonyaka. Kodwa urhulumente waseUkraine akazange asombulule ingxaki yezopolitiko esisiseko ngokunika iDonetsk kunye neLuhansk isikhundla sokuzimela abathembise sona kwisivumelwano seMinsk II.
Ngoku owayesakuba yiNgqonyela yaseJamani uAngela Merkel kunye noMongameli waseFransi uFrancois Holland baye bavuma ukuba iinkokeli zaseNtshona zavuma kuphela isivumelwano seMinsk II sokuthenga ixesha, ukuze babe nokwakha imikhosi exhobileyo yaseUkraine ekugqibeleni ibuyise iDonetsk neLuhansk ngamandla.
NgoMatshi ka-2022, inyanga emva kohlaselo lwaseRashiya, uthethathethwano lokuphelisa imfazwe lwabanjwa eTurkey. ERashiya naseUkraine zoba i-15-point "isivumelwano sokungathathi hlangothi," esathi uMongameli uZelenskyy wabonisa esidlangalaleni kwaye wachaza kubantu bakhe kusasazo lukamabonakude wesizwe ngomhla wama-27 kuMatshi. I-Russia yavuma ukurhoxa kwimimandla ebiyithathile ukusukela kuhlaselo ngoFebruwari ngokutshintshiselana nokuzibophelela kwe-Ukrainian ekungazibandakanyeni ne-NATO okanye ibambe iziseko zomkhosi zangaphandle. Eso sikhokelo siquka izindululo zokusombulula ikamva laseCrimea kunye neDonbas.
Kodwa ngo-Epreli, amahlakani aseNtshona aseUkraine, iUnited States kunye ne-United Kingdom ngokukodwa, ala ukuxhasa isivumelwano sokungathathi hlangothi kwaye aphembelela i-Ukraine ukuba iyeke uthethathethwano neRashiya. Amagosa aseMelika naseBrithani athi ngelo xesha abone ithuba loku "cofa" kwaye “buthathaka” eRashiya, nokuba babefuna ukulisebenzisa kakuhle elo thuba.
Isigqibo esibi sikarhulumente wase-US kunye noorhulumente baseBhritane sokuphelisa isivumelwano sokungathathi hlangothi saseUkraine kwinyanga yesibini yemfazwe kukhokelele kungquzulwano olude nolutshabalalisayo kunye namakhulu amawaka emfazwe. ukulimala. Akukho cala linokuthi liloyise elinye, kwaye konke ukunyuka okutsha konyusa ingozi "yemfazwe enkulu phakathi kwe-NATO neRussia," njengoNobhala Jikelele we-NATO uJens Stoltenberg kutshanje. lumkisa.
Iinkokeli zase-US kunye ne-NATO ngoku Kleyima ukuxhasa ukubuyiswa kwetafile yokuxoxisana abayinyusile ngo-Epreli, kunye nenjongo efanayo yokuphumeza ukurhoxiswa kweRashiya kwintsimi ehlala kuyo ukususela ngoFebruwari. Bayaqonda ngokungagungqiyo ukuba iinyanga ezilithoba ezingakumbi zemfazwe engeyomfuneko negazi-gazi ziye zasilela ekuphuculeni kakhulu ubume bothethathethwano lwaseUkraine.
Endaweni yokuthumela nje izixhobo ezongezelelekileyo zokuphembelela imfazwe engenakoyiswa kwithafa ledabi, iinkokeli zaseNtshona zinoxanduva olukhulu lokunceda ukuqalisa kwakhona uthethathethwano nokuqinisekisa ukuba ziyaphumelela ngeli xesha. Enye i-diplomatic fiasco efana nale bayenze ngo-Epreli iya kuba yintlekele e-Ukraine nakwihlabathi.
Ke yintoni enokuthi i-United States izise etafileni ukunceda ukuya eluxolweni eUkraine kunye nokunciphisa iMfazwe ebandayo yaseRussia?
NjengeCuban Missile Crisis ngexesha leMfazwe ebandayo yantlandlolo, le ngxaki inokusebenza njengento ebangela idiplomacy enzulu ukusombulula ukuqhawuka kobudlelwane base-US-Russia. Endaweni yokubeka emngciphekweni intshabalalo yenyukliya kwilinge “lokuyenza buthathaka” iRussia, iUnited States inokusebenzisa le ngxaki ukuze ivule ixesha elitsha lolawulo lwezixhobo zenyukliya, izivumelwano zokuthotywa kwezixhobo kunye nokuzibandakanya kwezopolitiko.
Kangangeminyaka, uMongameli uPutin wakhalaza malunga nomkhosi omkhulu wase-US eMpuma nakuMbindi Yurophu. Kodwa emva kohlaselo lwaseRussia lwaseUkraine, i-US inenyani yongezwa ubukho bayo emkhosini waseYurophu. Yandisa i ukusasazwa ngokupheleleyo Imikhosi yaseMelika eYurophu ukusuka kuma-80,000 ngaphambi kukaFebruwari 2022 ukuya malunga ne-100,000. Ithumele iinqanawa zokulwa eSpeyin, imikhosi yeenqwelomoya zokulwa eUnited Kingdom, amajoni eRomania nakwiBaltics, kunye neenkqubo zokhuselo lomoya eJamani nase-Itali.
Kwanangaphambi kokuba uhlaselo lwaseRashiya, i-US yaqala ukwandisa ubukho bayo kwisiseko somjukujelwa eRomania ukuba iRashiya iye yachasa ukususela oko yaqala ukusebenza ngo-2016. Umkhosi wase-US uye wakha oko The New York Times. ebizwa "ukufakwa komkhosi wase-US obuthathaka kakhulu” ePoland, ekwiikhilomitha nje ezili-100 ukusuka kummandla waseRashiya. Iziseko zasePoland naseRomania zinerada eziphucukileyo zokulandelela imijukujelwa enobutshaba kunye nemijukujelwa yokuyidubula.
Abantu baseRussia banexhala lokuba olu fakelo lunokuphinda lusetyenziselwe ukudubula imijukujelwa ekhubekisayo okanye nakwinyukliya, kwaye yile nto kanye i-1972 ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile) Unyango phakathi kwe-US kunye neSoviet Union akuvumelekanga, de uMongameli Bush warhoxa kuyo ngo-2002.
Ngelixa i-Pentagon ichaza ezi ndawo zimbini njengezikhuseli kwaye zizenza ngathi azikho eRashiya, uPutin uye. wa gxi ninisa ukuba iziseko zibubungqina besoyikiso esibangelwa kukwanda kwe-NATO empuma.
Nanga amanye amanyathelo anokuthi i-US icinge ngokuwabeka etafileni ukuze iqalise ukuthomalalisa ezi ngxwabangxwaba zisoloko zikhula kwaye ziphucule amathuba okupheliswa komlilo okungapheliyo kunye nesivumelwano soxolo eUkraine:
- I-United States kunye namanye amazwe aseNtshona anokuxhasa ukungathathi hlangothi kwe-Ukrainian ngokuvuma ukuthatha inxaxheba kuhlobo lweziqinisekiso zokhuseleko e-Ukraine naseRashiya bavumile ngo-Matshi, kodwa i-US ne-UK yala.
- I-US kunye namahlakani ayo e-NATO anokwazisa abantu baseRussia kwangethuba kwiingxoxo ukuba bakulungele ukuphakamisa izohlwayo ngokuchasene neRussia njengenxalenye yesivumelwano esibanzi soxolo.
- I-US inokuvuma ukuncitshiswa okubonakalayo kwimikhosi ye-100,000 ngoku enayo eYurophu, kunye nokususa imijukujelwa yayo eRomania nasePoland kwaye inikezele ezo ziseko kwiintlanga zabo.
- I-United States ingazibophelela ekusebenzisaneni neRussia kwisivumelwano sokuphinda kucuthwe ngokufanayo kwizixhobo zabo zenyukliya, kunye nokunqumamisa izicwangciso zezizwe zombini zokwakha izixhobo eziyingozi ngakumbi. Basenokubuyisela kwakhona iSivumelwano kwi-Open Skies, apho i-United States yarhoxayo ngo-2020, ukuze amacala omabini aqinisekise ukuba elinye liyasusa kwaye liyadiliza izixhobo avumayo ukuzisusa.
- I-United States ingavula ingxoxo malunga nokususwa kwezixhobo zayo zenyukliya kumazwe amahlanu aseYurophu apho zikhoyo ngoku esetyenziswe: eJamani, eItali, eNetherlands, eBelgium naseTurkey.
Ukuba iUnited States izimisele ukubeka olu tshintsho lomgaqo-nkqubo etafileni kwiingxoxo kunye neRashiya, oko kuya kwenza kube lula kwiRashiya ne-Ukraine ukufikelela kwisivumelwano sokupheliswa komlilo esamkelekileyo, kunye nokunceda ukuqinisekisa ukuba uxolo abathethana ngalo luya kuzinza kwaye luhlale luhleli. .
Ukunciphisa iMfazwe ebandayo neRussia kuya kunika iRussia inzuzo ebonakalayo ukubonisa abemi bayo njengoko irhoxa eUkraine. Iyakuvumela i-United States ukuba icuthe inkcitho yayo yasemkhosini kwaye ivumele amazwe aseYurophu ukuba alawule ukhuseleko lwawo, njengoko uninzi lwawo. abantu bafuna.
Uthethathethwano lwe-US-Russia aluyi kuba lula, kodwa ukuzinikela okunyanisekileyo ekusombululeni iiyantlukwano kuya kudala umxholo omtsha apho inyathelo ngalinye linokuthathwa ngokuzithemba okukhulu njengoko inkqubo yokudala uxolo izakhela umfutho.
Uninzi lwabantu behlabathi luya kuphefumla ukuze lubone inkqubela phambili ekupheliseni imfazwe e-Ukraine, kunye nokubona i-United States neRashiya zisebenzisana ukunciphisa ubungozi obukhoyo bomkhosi kunye nobutshaba babo. Oku kufanele kukhokhelele kuphuculo lwentsebenziswano yamazwe ngamazwe kwezinye iingxaki ezimandundu ezijongene nehlabathi kule nkulungwane-kwaye inokuqala ukubuyisela umva izandla ze-Doomsday Clock ngokwenza umhlaba ube yindawo ekhuselekileyo kuthi sonke.
UMedea Benjamin kunye noNicolas JS Davies bangababhali be Imfazwe e-Ukraine: Ukwenza ingqiqo yongquzulwano olungenangqiqo, efumaneka kwi-OR Books ngoNovemba 2022.
UMedea uBenjamin ngumseki we CODEPINK yoxolo, kunye nombhali weencwadi ezininzi, kubandakanya Ngaphakathi kwe-Iran: Imbali Yembali kunye nezopolitiko zeRiphabhliki yase-Iran.
UNicolas JS Davies yintatheli ezimeleyo, umphandi nge-CODEPINK kunye nombhali we Igazi ezandleni zethu: Invasion yaseMelika kunye nokuTshatyalaliswa kwe-Iraq.
