NguGuinness Madasamy, World BEYOND War, NgoMeyi 7, 2023
Njengoko sisazi kakuhle, iRashiya isoyikise ukusebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya ukuthintela amanye amazwe ukuba aphazamise uhlaselo lwaseUkraine. Kwakukho neengxelo zokuba uMongameli uPutin uyalele ukuba enze amalungiselelo okuba zisetyenziswe kwimeko yongxamiseko. Isisongelo esibangelwa zizixhobo zenyukliya zaseRashiya asinto ingenamsebenzi.
Isizathu soloyiko kukuba iRashiya inelona nani likhulu lezixhobo zenyukliya ehlabathini. Kunikelwa ingxelo yokuba amazwe asithoba anezixhobo ezininzi zenyukliya. La mazwe aneentloko zenyukliya ezimalunga ne-12,700. Kodwa iRussia kunye ne-US zine-90% yezixhobo zenyukliya zehlabathi. Kwezi, iRashiya inezixhobo zenyukliya ezingama-5,977 1,500, ngokutsho kwamanani akhutshwe yiFederation of American Scientists (FAS), umbutho olandela umkhondo wezixhobo zenyukliya. Ezili-4,477 1,588 kwezi ziphelelwe lixesha okanye zilindele intshabalalo. Kwi-812 eseleyo, i-FAS ikholelwa ukuba i-576 isetyenziswe kwizixhobo ezicwangcisiweyo (i-200 kwimijukujelwa ye-ballistic, i-977 kwi-missile ye-ballistic elaunched kwi-submarine, kunye ne-1,912 kwiziseko zebhomu). Izixhobo zobuchule ezingama-XNUMX kunye nezinye izixhobo ezili-XNUMX zigciniwe.
I-FAS iqikelela ukuba i-US iya kuba nezixhobo zenyukliya ezingama-5428. Ngokutsho kwe-FAS, i-1,800 yeentloko ze-nyukliya ze-5,428 zizonke zifakwe kwizixhobo ezicwangcisiweyo, i-1,400 yazo ifakwe kwi-missile ye-ballistic, i-300 kwiziseko ze-bomber e-US, kunye ne-100 kwiziseko zomoya eYurophu. Ama-2,000 kukholelwa ukuba abekwe kwindawo yokugcina.
Ukongeza, malunga ne-1,720 ephelelwe lixesha igcinwe kwiSebe lezaMandla kwaye ilindele ukutshatyalaliswa, ngokweengxelo.
Emva kweRussia kunye ne-US, i-China inesona sixhobo sikhulu sezixhobo zenyukliya, malunga ne-350 yemfazwe yenyukliya. I-China ine-280 imijukujelwa ye-ballistic eyaziswa emhlabeni, imijukujelwa engama-72 eyaziswa elwandle kunye neebhombu zenyukliya ezingama-20 ezisetyenziselwa zona. Kodwa kukwakho neengxelo zokuba iChina yandisa ngokukhawuleza izixhobo zayo zenyukliya. Ngokwengxelo ye-2021 ye-Pentagon, i-China iceba ukunyusa i-arsenal yayo yenyukliya ukuya kwi-700 ngo-2027 kunye ne-1,000 ngo-2030.
Kunye ne-US, iFransi ithathwa njengelona lizwe licacileyo malunga nezixhobo zenyukliya. Ukugcinwa kweFransi kwezixhobo zenyukliya ezimalunga nama-300 bekunjalo kule minyaka ilishumi idluleyo. Owayesakuba nguMongameli uFrançois Hollande uthe ngo-2015 ukuba iFransi isebenzise izixhobo zenyukliya kwi-submarine-launched missiles ballistic kunye neenkqubo zokuhanjiswa kwe-ASMPA.
IFransi yayinezixhobo zenyukliya ezimalunga nama-540 ngowe-1991-1992. Owayesakuba nguMongameli waseFransi uNicolas Sarkozy wathi ngo-2008 ukuba izixhobo zenyukliya ezikhoyo ngoku ezingama-300 zisisiqingatha sobukhulu beMfazwe ebandayo.
IBritani inezixhobo zenyukliya ezimalunga nama-225. Malunga ne-120 kwezi sele zilungele ukuthunyelwa kwimijukujelwa ephuma kwiinkwili ezimiliselwe phezulu. I-FAS iqikelele eli nani ngokusekelwe kulwazi olufumaneka esidlangalaleni kunye neencoko kunye namagosa ase-UK.
Ubungakanani obuchanekileyo bempahla yenyukliya yase-UK ayikakhululwa, kodwa ngo-2010 owayesakuba nguNobhala Wezangaphandle uWilliam Hague wathi isitokhwe esipheleleyo sexesha elizayo akufuneki sidlule kwi-225.
Kukho uqikelelo oluninzi malunga nesitokhwe senyukliya sakwaSirayeli, kodwa kukholelwa ukuba phakathi kwe-75 kunye ne-400 yezixhobo zenyukliya. Nangona kunjalo, uqikelelo oluthembekileyo lungaphantsi kwekhulu. Ngokutsho kweFAS, kukho izixhobo zenyukliya ezingama-90. Kodwa u-Israyeli akazange avavanye, abhengeze esidlangalaleni, okanye asebenzise amandla enyukliya.
INorth Korea yenze inkqubela phambili enkulu ekuphuhliseni izixhobo zayo zenyukliya. Kodwa i-FAS iyathandabuza ukuba iNorth Korea ikwazile ukuphuhlisa isixhobo senyukliya esisebenza ngokupheleleyo esinokuthi sisetyenziswe kumjukujelwa omude we-ballistic. INorth Korea ukuza kuthi ga ngoku yenze iimvavanyo zenyukliya ezintandathu kwaye yavavanya imijukujelwa ye-ballistic.
Baqikelela ukuba uMntla Korea usenokuba uvelise izixhobo ezaneleyo zokwakha izixhobo zenyukliya ezingama-40 ukuya kwezingama-50, kwaye unokwakha izixhobo ezili-10 ukuya kwezingama-20.
Noko ke, iFAS ngokwayo icacile ukuba elona nani lichanekileyo lezixhobo zenyukliya ezikwilizwe ngalinye liyimfihlelo yelizwe nokuba amanani akhutshiweyo asenokungachani.
Kukwavakala nokuba iinkokeli zala mazwe mabini zixhalabile ukuba ukujongana ngezikhondo zamehlo kwe-India-Pakistan kungajika kube yimfazwe yenyukliya, nto leyo eyoyikisayo kumntu oqhelekileyo. I-Indiya nePakistan zinezixhobo zenyukliya ezili-150 inye. Ngo-2025, inani labo liya kuba ubuncinane be-250 nganye. Uqikelelo luthi ukuba kukho imfazwe phakathi kwabo, i-1.6 ukuya kwi-3.6 yeetoni ze-soot (amasuntswana amancinane ekhabhoni) aya kusasazeka emoyeni.
Izixhobo zenyukliya zinamandla okunyusa ubushushu bomoya ojikeleze umhlaba. Emva kweentsuku emva kogqabhuko-dubulo lwazo, i-20 ukuya kwi-25% imitha yelanga engaphantsi ibetha emhlabeni. Ngenxa yoko, kuya kubakho ukuhla kwe-2 ukuya kwe-5 kwiqondo lokushisa lomoya. I-5 ukuya kwi-15% yezinto eziphilayo zaselwandle kunye ne-15 ukuya kwi-30% yezityalo ezisemhlabeni ziya kufa.
Inokuqinisekiswa ukuba ukuba amazwe omabini aneebhombu zenyukliya ezinamandla e-15 kilotons xa kuthelekiswa neetoni ezingaphezu kwe-100 ezisetyenziswa eHiroshima, i-50 ukuya kwi-150 yezigidi zabantu baya kufa ukuba basebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya.
IRashiya, igunya lokuqala lenyukliya emhlabeni, iye yakha iziko lokuqala lenyukliya elidadayo ehlabathini. Inqanawa yeemitha ezili-140 ubude kunye neemitha ezingama-30 ububanzi inokuvelisa iimegawathi ezingama-80 zombane.
Ngelixa ummandla weArctic ngokubanzi usengxakini yendalo, iziko lamandla enyukliya elidadayo kulo mmandla liya lisiba sesinye isoyikiso. Izazinzulu ezidumileyo zoyika ukuba ukuba iziko lamandla enyukliya belinokusilela nangayiphi na indlela, oko bekuya kubangela imeko embi ngakumbi kwiArctic kuneChernobyl.
Kwaye urhulumente waseRashiya akavumi ukuba ukunyuka kwemigodi kwingingqi ye-Arctic ngoncedo lwesityalo kuya kukwenza nzima ngakumbi ukulinganisela kommandla.
Iinkokeli azivumi ukuba iindlela ezithathwe yi-Indiya, iPakistan, i-US kunye neRashiya kwintsimi yenyukliya zinefuthe elikhulu elibi kwindalo yehlabathi. Iinkokeli zehlabathi kufuneka zize ngaphambili zilungise ukuma kwazo kulo mba.
Ngelixa izizwe zizama okanye zizama ukuba ngamagunya enyukliya, ukufa ngenxa yendlala kuyanda, ngakumbi kumazwe aseAfrika.
Ngenxa yoko, ndibongoza iinkokeli zehlabathi ukuba zihlanganise inani elikhulu leebhombu zokutya, eziya kuphelisa indlala kumazwe enu, endaweni yokunyusa izixa ezikhulu zezixhobo zenyukliya. Kwakhona ndicela zonke iinkokeli zehlabathi ukuba zisayine isivumelwano sokuthintelwa kwezixhobo zenyukliya ukusindisa umhlaba wethu njengoko sinomhlaba omnye kuphela.
