IINTLOKO ZINYE ZINYE, KUNYE ZIQEQESHE NGOKUQINISWA

"Andiyi kuba ngumongameli wokuqala ukuba aphelelwe yimfazwe," wafunga uLyndon Johnson.

"Ndiya kubona ukuba iUnited States ayilahlekanga. Ndibeka ngokucacileyo. Ndiya kuchaneka. INingizimu Vietnam ilahleka. Kodwa iUnited States ayikwazi ukulahlekelwa. Oko kuthetha ukuba, ngokwenene, ndenze isigqibo. Nantoni na eyenzekayo eMzantsi Vietnam, siya kwiCream North Vietnam. . . . Kuba kanye kufuneka sisebenzise amandla amakhulu kweli lizwe. . . nxamnye neli lizwe elincinci lembongolo: ukunqoba imfazwe. Asikwazi ukusebenzisa igama elithi 'ukunqoba.' Kodwa abanye banako, "watsho uRichard Nixon.

Kakade, uJohnson noNixon "balahlekile" loo mpi, kodwa bebengabongameli bokuqala ukulahlekelwa yimfazwe. Imfazwe yaseKorea yayingazange iphele ngokusinqoba, nje ingqungquthela. "Hamba umtya," kuchaza imikhosi. I-United States yalahlekelwa yimfazwe eyahlukeneyo kunye namaMerika aseMelika kunye neMfazwe ye-1812, kwaye kwixesha laseVietnam i-United States yabonisa ngokuphindaphindiweyo ukukhupha uFidel Castro waseCuba. Ayikho yonke imfazwe inokunqoba, kwaye iMfazwe yaseVietnam ifana neenkqubela ezilandelayo kwi-Afghanistan nase-Iraq umgangatho othile wokungazinzi. Umgangatho ofanayo unokuthi ufumaneke kwiintlanganiso ezincinci ezingaphelelanga njengeenkathazo zokubamba i-Iran kwi-1979, okanye kwimigudu yokukhusela ama-ambassade ase-United States kunye ne-United States phambi kwe-2001, okanye ukugcinwa kweziseko kwiindawo ezingenakuzinyamezela , njengePhilippines okanye i-Saudi Arabia.

Ndiyathetha ukuba ndibonise into ecacileyo kunokuba nje iimfazwe ezingabonakaliyo. Kwiimfazwe ezininzi zangaphambilini, mhlawumbi ngeMfazwe yehlabathi II kunye neMfazwe yaseKorea, imbono yokuphumelela yayiqulethe intshaba yokulwa kwintlango kunye nokuyithatha insimu yabo okanye ibenzela ukuba iimeko zabo ziza kwenzeka. Kwiimfazwe ezahlukahlukeneyo kunye nemininzi yemfazwe yethu yakutshanje, iimfazwe zalwa namawaka eekhilomitha ukusuka ekhaya zichasene nabantu kunokuba zichasene nemikhosi, umgaqo wokuwina uye waba nzima ukuchaza. Njengoko sifumana sihlala kwelinye ilizwe, ngaba oko kuthetha ukuba sele sineyonto, njengoko uBush wathi nge-Iraq ngoMeyi 1, 2003? Okanye ngaba siyakwazi ukulahlekelwa nguxosho? Okanye ingaba uloyiso luya kufika nini kwaye ukuba ukunyanzelwa kobundlobongela kuncitshiswe kumgangatho othile? Okanye ngaba urhulumente ozinzile othobela iimfuno zaseWashington kufuneka amiswe ngaphambi kokuba anqobe?

Olu hlobo loloyiso, ukulawula ulawulo lwalunye ilizwe elinokumelana nobudlova obuncinane, kunzima ukuza. Iimfazwe zomsebenzi okanye i-counter-insurgency zixutyushwa kaninzi ngaphandle kokukhankanywa kweli nqanaba eliphambili kwaye libonakala libalulekileyo: bahlala belahleka. UWilliam Polk wenza isifundo sokuhlaselwa kweemfazwe kunye neenkwenkwezi zokulwa apho ajonga khona i-American Revolution, ukumelana neSpain ngokubhekiselele kwisiFrentshi, uvuko lwasePhilippines, umzabalazo wase-Ireland wokuzimela, ukuxhathisa kwe-Afghan kwabaseBrithani kunye namaRashiya, kunye nokulwa eYugoslavia, eGrisi, eKenya naseAlgeria, phakathi kwabanye. IPolk ibhekisele kwinto eyenzekayo xa singabomvu kunye nabanye abantu ngabakholoni. Ku-1963 wanikela inkcazo kwiKholeji yeSizwe yeMfazwe eyashiya abaphathi apho bevutha ngumsindo. Wabatshela ukuba imfazwe yenkwenkwezi yenziwa ngezopolitiko, ukulawula kunye nokulwa:

"Ndixelele abaphulaphuli ukuba sele siphumelele umcimbi wezopolitiko - uHo Chi Minh ube ngumfanekiso welizwe laseVietnam. Oko, ndacetyiswa, ngaba malunga neepesenti ze-80 zemizabalazo yonke. Ngaphezu koko, iVi Viet Min okanye iVuong, njengoko sasifikile ukuyibiza, yayiye yaphazamisa ukuphathwa kwe-Vietnam yaseMzantsi Vietnam, yabulala amaninzi amagosa ayo, ukuba yayiphelile ukwenza imisebenzi eyintloko. Oko, ndaqagela, ndafumana enye yeepesenti ze-15 yomzabalazo. Ngoko ke, ngeepesenti ze-5 kuphela, sasiphethe isiphelo esifutshane seqhenqa. Kwaye ngenxa yenkohlakalo ephazamisayo kaRhulumente waseMzantsi Vietnam, njengoko ndandinethuba lokuzibonelela, nokuba loo mbindi yayisengozini yokuphuka. Ndalumkisa amagosa ukuba imfazwe sele ilahlekile. "

NgoDisemba 1963, uMongameli uJohnson wamisela iqela elisebenzayo elibizwa ngokuba yiSullivan Task Force. Iziphumo zalo zahluke kwiPolk ngokuthe tye kunye nenjongo kunezinto ezibonakalayo. Leli qela lembutho libhekise phambili ekuqhubeni imfazwe nge-"Rolling Thunder" ephambili yokuqhuma ibhomu eMntla ngokuthi "ukuzibophezela ukuhamba yonke indlela." Enyanisweni, "isigwebo esipheleleyo seKomiti yeSullivan kukuba ukukhankanywa kwebhola kuya kubangela imfazwe engapheliyo , ngokuqhubekayo kwanda, kunye namacala omabini angena ephazameni obungunaphakade. "

Oku akufanele kube yiindaba. Isebe likaRhulumente wase-US liyazi ukuba iMfazwe yaseVietnam ayinakuyiphumelela njengoko i-1946, njengoko iPolk ibika:

"UJohn Carter Vincent, owawunobungozi obunokubangela ukunyaniseka kwakhe kwiVietnam naseTshayina, wayengumqondisi weSebe leMpuma Ekude kwiSebe likaRhulumente. NgoDisemba i-23, i-1946, wabhala ngokugqithiseleyo unobhala wombuso 'ongenamandla, kunye noluntu lukarhulumente, lukarhulumente olwenziwe lukhulu ngokuhlukana kwangaphakathi, amaFransi azame ukufezekisa e-Indochina ukuba yiyiphi i-Britain eyomeleleyo kunye ebumbene ufumene kungengqiqo ukuba uzame eBurma. Ukunikezelwa kwezinto ezikhoyo kwiimeko, imfazwe yegandlila inokuqhubeka ngonaphakade. '"

Uphando lukaPolk lwe-guerrilla imfazwe ehlabathini lonke lufumene ukuba ukuxhatshazwa kwabantu abangaphandle kwamanye amazwe akupheli kuze kube yilapho bephumelela. Oku kuvumelana neziphumo ze-Carnegie Endowment yoxolo lwamazwe ngamazwe kunye ne-RAND Corporation, zombini ekhankanywe kwisahluko sesithathu. Izibhengezo ezivela kumazwe anobuthathaka abahlali baphumelele. Oorhulumente abathabatha umyalelo kwi-capital city angaphandle bathe babe buthathaka. Iimfazwe uGeorge W. Bush zaqala e-Afghanistan kunye ne-Iraq ngoko phantse ngokuqinisekileyo iimfazwe eziya kulahleka. Umbuzo oyintloko yindlela esiza kuchitha ngayo ixesha elide, kwaye nokuba i-Afghanistan iya kuqhubeka iphila ngokuya kuthiwa "ngcwabeni lamagunya."

Omnye akudingeki ukuba acinge ngeemfazwe kuphela ngokuwina okanye ukulahlekelwa, nangona kunjalo. Ukuba iUnited States kufuneka ikhethe amagosa kwaye ibanyanzele ukuba bayithobele iinqwenela zoluntu kunye nokuthatha umhlalaphantsi kwiintlanga zamanye amazwe, sonke siza kuba ngcono. Kutheni kwihlabathi kufuneka loo mfuno efunwayo kuthiwa "ukulahleka"? Sibone kwisahluko ezimbini ukuba ummeleli we-Afghanistan akanakukwazi ukuchaza oko kuphumelela kubonakala ngathi. Ingaba kukho nawuphi na umqondo ekuziphatheni njengokungathi "ukuphumelela" kukukhetha? Ukuba iimfazwe ziya kugqitywa ukuba zibe yimikhankaso ebalulekileyo kunye neyobuqaqawuli beenkokeli zobuqhawe kwaye ibe yinto ephantsi komthetho, oko kukuthi ulwaphulo-mthetho, ngoko kufuneka iilwimi ezihlukileyo. Awukwazi ukuphumelela okanye ukulahlekelwa ulwaphulo-mthetho; ungaqhubeka kuphela okanye uyeke ukwenza oko.

Icandelo: INKCUKACHA ENYE KWENKQUBO

Ubuthathaka bokubambisana, okanye kunokuba bangaphandle kwamanye amazwe, kukuba ababoneleli abantu kumazwe ahleliweyo nantoni na eyifunayo; Ngokuchasene noko, bacaphukisa baze benzakalise abantu. Oku kushiya ukuvulela okukhulu kwimikhosi yokutshutshisa, okanye kunjalo ukuchasana, ukuphumelela inkxaso yabantu kwicala labo. Ngexesha elifanayo lokuba umkhosi waseMelika wenze izinto ezinobuthathaka kwiindlela eziqhelekileyo zokuqonda le ngxaki kunye nokuxubusha ukukhwabanisa ukufumana "iintliziyo neengqondo," ithengisa ubuninzi bemithombo ngendlela echasene ngqo ekujoliswe kuyo ukuphumelela abantu, kodwa kubabetha ngokukhawuleza kangangokuthi balahlekelwa konke ukuzimisela. Le ndlela inembali emide kwaye imiselwe ukusilela kwaye ingaba yintsikelelo engundoqo emva kwezicwangciso zemfazwe kunezinto ezinjengezoqoqosho kunye nokudakalisa. Kodwa iholele ekufeni okukhulu nokufuduka, oku kunokukunceda umsebenzi nangona ivelisa iintshaba kunokuba ngabahlobo.

Imbali yakutshanje yembali yokuqhawulwa kweentshaba zifana neembali zebhomu. Ekubeni ngaphambi kokuba iindiza zenziwe kwaye zakuba zide zikhona, abantu baye bakholwa, kwaye baqhubeke bekholelwa, ukuba iimfazwe zinokunciphisa ngokubhobhoza abantu bomoya ngokukhawuleza ukuba bayakhala "umalume". umsebenzi awunomqobo wokuqamba kabusha nokuyibuyisela kwakhona njengesiqili kwimfazwe nganye entsha.

UMongameli uFranlin Roosevelt utshele uNobhala weNondyebo uHenry Morgenthau kwi1941: "Indlela yokukhohlisa uHitler yindlela endandiyithetha ngayo isiNgesi, kodwa abayi kundiphulaphula." URoosevelt wayefuna ukubetha iidolophu ezincinci. "Kufuneka kubekho uhlobo lwefektri kuzo zonke iidolophu. Leyo yindlela kuphela yokuphula umgaqo weJamani. "

Kwakukho iingcamango ezibini eziyimpembelelo ngolu hlobo, kwaye ziye zahlala zibalalele ekucwangciseni imfazwe. (Andithandi ukucinga ukuba iibhomu zethu zingawutshaya umkhiqizo; ukuba ziza kuphinda ziphosakeke ngokungenokwenzeka ukuba ingongoma kaRoosevelt.)

Esinye isicatshulwa sobuxoki kukuba ukubhubhisa amakhaya abantu kunempembelelo yengqondo kubo abafana nelo lijoni lamajoni kwimfazwe. Amagosa okucima amabhomu e-dolophu kwiMfazwe Yehlabathi II yayikulindele ukuba imihlambi "yokugubha iindlovu" iguqulwe kwinqabhoko. Kodwa abahlali abaphila kwiimibhobho abazange bahlangabezane nesidingo sokubulala abanye abantu, okanye "umoya wenzondo" okukhulunywe ngayo kwisahluko esisodwa - ukuba ukukhathazeka okukhulu kwabanye abantu bazama ukukubulala. Enyanisweni, iidolophu zokuqhuma izibhamu azikhathazi wonke umntu ukuya kwindawo yokutya. Esikhundleni salokho kuyanzima ukuba iintliziyo zalabo basindayo kwaye bazinzile ukuzimisela ukuqhubeka bexhasa imfazwe.

Izigqeba zokufa emhlabeni zingalimaza abantu, kodwa zibandakanya inqanaba elithile lomngcipheko nokuzibophelela kunokuba ibhomu liqhume.

Isibini sesicatshulwa sobuxoki kukuba xa abantu bechasene nemfazwe, urhulumente wabo unokwenza umonakalo. Oorhulumente balala indlela eya kwiimfazwe kuqala, kwaye ngaphandle kokuba abantu besongela ukuba basuse emandleni, banokukhetha ukuqhubeka nokulwa nxamnye neenkcaso zikawonkewonke, into eyenziwa yi-United States ngokwayo eKorea, Vietnam, eIraq, kwaye Afghanistan, phakathi kwezinye iimfazwe. Imfazwe yaseVietnam yagqitywa emva kweenyanga ezisibhozo emva kokuba umongameli waphoxiswa ngaphandle kweofisi. Akunjalo noorhulumente abaninzi bayafuna ukuzimela ngokwabo, njengokuba amaMerika alindele ukuba amaJapan enze kwaye amaJamani ayelindele ukuba iBritish iyenze. Sasibetha amaKorea neesiVietnam ngakumbi nangakumbi, kodwa ayikazange ayeke. Akukho mntu wamothusa kwaye wayenomdla.

I-theorists abafudumalayo abaqulunqa ibinzana elithi "ukuthuthumela kunye neloyiko" kwi-1996, uHarlan Ullman noJames P. Wade, bakholelwa ukuba indlela efanayo eyahlulekayo kwiminyaka eminyaka yayiza kusebenza, kodwa ukuba sinokufuna ngaphezulu. Ibhomu le-2003 laseBaghdad lalingapheli kwinto u-Ullman acinga ukuba iyadingeka ukuze abantu bamhlonele. Kunzima, nangona kunjalo, ukubona apho iimbono ezinjalo zidweba umgca phakathi kwabantu abangabonakaliyo ngaphambili, kwaye babulala abaninzi abantu, abanomphumo ofanayo kwaye benziwe ngaphambili.

Inyaniso kukuba iimfazwe, sele ziqalile, zinzima kakhulu ukulawula okanye ukuqikelela, ngaphantsi kokuncinci. Amadoda amaninzi aneebhokisi zeebhokisi angathabatha izakhiwo zakho ezinkulu, kungakhathaliseki ukuba uninzi kangakanani i-nukes. Kwaye iqela elincinci labavukeli abangaqeqeshiweyo kunye neebhomu ezenziweyo ezikhutshwe ngamafowuni ezilahlayo zingakwazi ukunqoba i-trillion ye-dolophu yamagosa eye yazama ukubeka ivenkile kwilizwe elingalunganga. Into ebalulekileyo apho uthabathelo luhlala kubantu, kwaye oko kukhula kunzima ukuqondisa ngakumbi umbutho osebenzayo uzama ukuwulathisa.

Icandelo: UKUTYENZISWA KWEVICTO NGOKWENZA

Kodwa akukho mfuneko yokuvuma ukunqotshwa. Kulula ukufumana ibango lokuba ufuna ukushiya lonke ixesha, ukunyusa imfazwe okwethutyana, kwaye emva koko ukubiza ukuba uya kushiya ngenxa ye "mpumelelo" engafaniweyo yokunyuka kwangoko. Leli bali, lichazwe ukuba lizwakale lincinci, lingaba lula ngathi lincinci kunokuba libaleke ngophethiloli ephahleni kwi-ambassy.

Ngenxa yokuba iimfazwe ezedlulileyo zahluleka kwaye zilahlekile, kwaye ngenxa yokuba inkohlakalo yolwaphulo-mali idla ngokukodwa kulo mxholo, abacwangcisi bemfazwe bacinga ukuba ezo zikhetho zimbini kuphela. Ngokusobala bafumana enye yezo zigqibo ukuba zingenakuze zithengeleke. Baye bakholelwa ukuba iimfazwe zehlabathi zanqotshwa ngenxa yokunyuka kwamabutho ase-America. Ngoko ke, ukuphumelela kuyimfuneko, kunokwenzeka, kwaye kuya kufumaneka kumzamo omkhulu. Ngulo myalezo ozakukhishwa, nokuba ingaba inyaniso iyabambisana, kwaye nabani na othetha into eyahlukileyo uyalimaza umzamo wemfazwe.

Ukucinga ngokwemvelo kukukhokelela ekumangaliseni ngokuwina, amabango amanga ukuba ukunqoba kuphezu kwekona, ukucaciswa koyiso njengoko kuyadingeka, kwaye ukwenqaba ukuchazela ukunqoba ukuze ukwazi ukufaka isicelo kungakhathaliseki ukuba yintoni. Iindaba ezilungileyo zeemfazwe zenza ukuba nantoni na ifuthe ibe yinkqubela phambili ekuphumeleleni ngelixa likhokela kwelinye icala ukuba baya kulwa. Kodwa ngamacala omabini asoloko ebanga inkqubela phambili, umntu kufuneka aphosakele, kwaye inzuzo ekukhombiseni abantu mhlawumbi iya kwicala elithetha ulwimi lwabo.

UHarold Lasswell wachaza ukubaluleka kokusasazwa kwe-propaganda kwi-1927:

"Inkolelo yokunqoba kufuneka inondliwe ngenxa yokuxhamla okuthe ngqo phakathi kokuqinileyo nokulungileyo. Iimpawu zokuqala zokucinga ziqhubeka ziphila kwanamhlanje, kwaye iimfazwe ziba zilingo ukuze ziqinisekiswe ukuba ziyinyaniso kwaye zilungile. Ukuba siphumelele, uThixo uphakathi kwethu. Ukuba silahleka, uThixo unokube ekho ngaphesheya. . . . [D] efeat ufuna into enkulu yokuchaza, ngelixa uloyiso lithetha. "

Ngoko ke, ukuqala imfazwe ngesiseko sobuxoki obungenangqondo obungayi kukholwa kwinyanga esebenzayo, kungekudala nje ngenyanga ungatshengisa ukuba "uyaphumelela."

Ukongezelela ekulahlekelweni, into enye efuna into eninzi yokuchaza iyinto engapheliyo. Iimfazwe zethu ezitsha zihamba ixesha elide kuneemfazwe zehlabathi. I-United States yayiseMfazwe Yehlabathi I ngomnyaka nesiqingatha, kwiMfazwe Yehlabathi II kwiminyaka emithathu nesiqingatha, kunye neMfazwe yaseKorea iminyaka emithathu. Lezo ziimfazwe ezide kwaye eziyingozi. Kodwa iMfazwe yaseVietnam yathatha ubuncinane iminyaka eyisibhozo nesigxina-okanye ixesha elide, kuxhomekeke kwindlela olinganisa ngayo. Iimfazwe e-Afghanistan nase-Iraq zazihamba iminyaka engama-9 kunye nesibhozo seminyaka ngokulandelana ngexesha lo kubhala.

Imfazwe e-Iraq yayininzi ixesha elide elikhulu kunye negazi leemfazwe ezimbini, kunye nabamkeli bezoxolo base-United States bafuna ukurhoxiswa. Ngokuqhelekileyo saxelelwa ngabaxhasi bemfazwe ukuba ukuxhotyiswa kwezinto ezinokuthi zivelise amashumi amabini emikhosi e-Iraq, kunye nezixhobo zazo, kuya kufuna iminyaka. Eli bango libonakaliswe lobuxoki kwi-2010, xa amanye amabutho e-100,000 ahoxiswa ngokukhawuleza. Kutheni oko kwakungeke kwenzeke iminyaka ngaphambili? Kutheni le nto imfazwe kufuneka idonsele phambili kwaye iqhubeke, kwaye ikhuphuke?

Yintoni eya kuza kwiimfazwe ezimbini e-United States ekulingeni njengoko ndibhalela oku (ezintathu ukuba sibala iPakistan), ngokwemigqaliselo ye-ajenda yabenzi bemfazwe, ihlala ibonakala. Abo bazuza kwiimfazwe kunye "nokwakhiwa kabusha" baye bazuza kule minyaka emininzi. Kodwa ngaba kuya kusekelwa ngamanani amaninzi aseMelika nase-Afghanistan ngokungapheliyo? Okanye ngaba amawaka eenqwelo-mali eziqeshwe yiSebe lase-US elijongene nokulinda ama-ambassade aphezulu kunye neengcali kufuneka zanele? Ngaba iUnited States iya kulawula uorhulumente okanye izibonelelo zeentlanga? Ngaba ukutshatyalaliswa kuya kupheleleyo okanye kuyingxenye? Oku kuhleliwe ukuba kuqinisekiswe, kodwa yinyani ukuba iincwadi zembali zase-United States aziyi kubakho inkcazo yokutshatyalaliswa. Baza kuxela ukuba le mpi ziyimpumelelo. Yaye yonke inkcazelo yokuphumelela iya kubandakanya into ebizwa ngokuthi "ukunyuka."

Icandelo: INGABE UNGAFUNA UKUPHATHA?

"Siphumelele e-Iraq!" - USenat John McCain (R., Ariz.)

Njengoko imfazwe engenamthemba idlulela iminyaka emva konyaka, ngokusindiswa okungenakucingwa kwaye kungenakucingwa, kukho impendulo yokungabi nququko, kwaye loo mpendulo ihlala i "thumela imikhosi emininzi." Xa ulwalamlo luhla, kukho imfuneko emininzi yokwakha kwimpumelelo. Xa ubundlobongela bukhuphuka, kukho imfuneko yamanzi ukuze udibanise.

Imithintelo kwinani lemikhosi esele ithunyelwe inezinto ezininzi zokwenza ukungabikho kwemikhosi yemikhosi yeminye imikhosi yokusetyenziswa kakubi kunye nokuhamba kweyesibini neyesithathu kunokuba kuchasene nezopolitiko. Kodwa xa kuyimfuneko indlela entsha, okanye ubuncinane bembonakalo yodwa, i-Pentagon inokufumana i-30,000 imikhosi eyongezelelweyo ukuba iyithumele, ibize ngokuthi "ukunyuka," kwaye ivakalise ukuba imfazwe iphinde izalwe njengezilwanyana ezahlukileyo kunye nezilwanyana. Utshintsho kwisicwangciso esaneleyo, eWashington, DC, njengempendulo kwimfuno zokupheliswa ngokupheleleyo: Asikwazi ukuhamba ngoku; sizama into eyahlukileyo! Siza kwenza okuthe kancinci kwento esiyenzayo kwiminyaka embalwa edlulileyo! Kwaye umphumo uya kuba noxolo nentando yeninzi: siya kugqiba imfazwe ngokunyuka!

Le ngcamango yayingeyona entsha kunye ne-Iraq. Ukuqhunyiswa kwamabhomu eHanoi kunye noHaiphong okukhankanywe kwisahluko yesithandathu ngowomnye umzekelo wokuphelisa imfazwe ngokungabonakali kokuqina kongeza. Njengoko iVietnam yayiya kuvuma imiqathango efanayo phambi kokuba ibhomu livumelane emva koko, urhulumente wase-Iraq uza kwamkela nayiphi na isivumelwano esenza iUnited States kwiminyaka yokuhoxiswa ngaphambi kokunyuka, ngaphambi kwayo okanye ngexesha layo. Xa iPalamente yase-Iraq yavuma ukubizwa ngokuba yiSimo seSivumelwano seMigangatho kwi-2008, yenze njalo kuphela ukuba imeko yokubhenela kawonkewonke ibanjwe ukuba ingawunqumli umnqophiso kwaye ikhethe ukuhoxiswa ngokukhawuleza endaweni yokubambezeleka kweminyaka emithathu. Lo mboniso awuzange ugcinwe.

Isivumelwano sikaMengameli uBush sokuba ashiye iIraq - nangona ukulibaziseka kweminyaka emithathu kunye nokungaqiniseki malunga nokuba iUnited States yayiya kuhambelana nesivumelwano - ayizange kuthiwa yintshatyalali kuphela ngenxa yokuba kwakukho ukunyuka kwexesha eliye labizwa ngokuba yimpumelelo. Kwi-2007, iUnited States yathumela amanye amabutho e-30,000 e-Iraq enobudlova obukhulu kunye nomlawuli omtsha, uGeneral David Petraeus. Ngoko ukunyuka kwakwenene ngokwaneleyo, kodwa kuthekani ngokuphumelela kwayo?

INgqungquthela kunye noMongameli, amaqela okufundisisa kunye neengcinga zamathangi baye babeka "iiphonkmarks" zokuba zilinganise impumelelo e-Iraq ukusuka kwi-2005. UMongameli kulindelwe yiCongress ukuhlangabezana neempawu zayo ngoJanuwari 2007. Akazange ahlangane nabo ngeso sihlandlo sokugqibela, ekupheleni "kokunyuka," okanye ngexesha elashiya isikhundla ngoJanuwari 2009. Kwakungekho nomthetho weoli ukufumana inzuzo enkulu kwiinkampani zeoli, akukho myalelo wokuhlambalaza, akukho ukuhlolwa kwakhona komgaqo-siseko, kwaye akukho lukhetho lwephondo. Enyanisweni, kwakungekho uphuculo kumbane, amanzi, okanye ezinye iindlela zokuqala zokubuyisela e-Iraq. "Ukunyuka" kwakukuqhubela phambili le "zibonakaliso" kunye nokudala "indawo" ukuvumela uxolo kunye nokuzinzo kwezopolitiko. Kungakhathaliseki ukuba akunjalo okanye kuqondwa njengekhowudi yokulawula ulawulo lwe-Iraq, i-cheerleaders ye-overge ivuma ukuba ayizange iphumelele nayiphi na inkqubela yezopolitiko.

Umlinganiso wempumelelo "wokunyusa" wancitshiswa ngokukhawuleza ukuba ubandakanye into enye kuphela: ukunciphisa ubundlobongela. Oku kwakulungile, okokuqala ngenxa yokuba kucinyiwe kwimemori yaseMelika nantoni na eyenye ekufuneka yenziwe, kwaye okwesibini ngenxa yokuba ugqirha wayonwabile kunye nexesha elide lokuhla kobundlobongela. Uqhaqho lwaluncinci kakhulu, kwaye ifuthe lalo kwangoko isenokuba kukwenyuka kobundlobongela. UBrian Katulis noLawrence Korb bachaza ukuba, “'Ukunyuka' kwemikhosi yase-US e-Iraq ibikukunyuka nje okuthe chu kweepesenti ezili-15- kwaye kuncinci xa kuthathelwa ingqalelo inani elincitshisiweyo leminye imikhosi yamanye amazwe, eye yehla ukusuka kwi-15,000 ngo-2006 iye kutsho kuma-5,000 2008 ngo-20,000. ” Ke, sidibanise inzuzo engama-30,000 XNUMX, hayi ama-XNUMX.

Imikhosi eyongezelelweyo yayise-Iraq ngo-Meyi 2007, kwaye ngoJuni noJulayi kwakukho inyanga ebudlobongela kakhulu kwiimfazwe zemfazwe yonke loo nto. Xa ubundlobongela behla, kwakukho izizathu zokunciphisa okungazange kuthathe nantoni na "ukunyuka." Ukuhla kwehla kwakuncinane, kwaye inkqubela phambili yayixhomekeke kumanqanaba amaninzi okugonyamelo ekuqaleni kwe2007. Ngokuwa kwe-2007 eBaghdad kwakukho ukuhlaselwa kwe-20 ngosuku kunye nabahlali be-600 babulawa kwindlobongela yezopolitiko inyanga nganye, kungabalwa amajoni okanye amapolisa. Ama-Iraqi aqhubeka ekholelwa ukuba iimbambano zazibangelwa yimisebenzi yase-US, yaye baqhubeka befuna ukuba iphele ngokukhawuleza.

Amaxhoba emikhosini yaseBrithani eBasra yehla ngokuphawulekayo xa amaBritani ayeka ukulandelela amaziko oluntu kwaye ashukuthela kwisikhululo. Akukho nxaxheba ebandakanyekayo. Ngokuchasene noko, ngenxa yokuba ubudlova obuninzi buye buqhutyelwa ngumsebenzi, ukukhawuleza umsebenzi oye wachaphazelekayo kubangele ukunciphisa ubundlobongela.

Ukuhlaselwa kweGerrilla kwiphondo lase-Anbar liye laphuma kwi-400 ngeveki ngoJulayi 2006 ukuya kwi-100 ngeveki ngoJulayi 2007, kodwa "ukunyuka" e-al-Anbar kwakunomkhosi omtsha we-2,000. Enyanisweni, enye into ichaza ukuhla kobudlova kwi-al-Anbar. Ngomhla kaJanuwari 2008, uMichael Schwartz wazithathela inkolelo yokuba "ukunyuka kuye kwaholela ekuncincikeni kweendawo ezinkulu zePhondo lase-Anbar naseBaghdad." Nakhu oko wabhala:

“Ukuzola nokuzola ayisiyonto inye, kwaye ngokuqinisekileyo le yimeko yokuthula. Ngapha koko, ukuncitshiswa kobundlobongela esibubonayo sisiphumo sokuba i-US iyeke uhlaselo lwayo olubi kumhlaba wabavukeli, ekuye kwasekuqaleni kwemfazwe-owona mthombo mkhulu wobundlobongela kunye nokubulawa kwabantu e-Iraq. Olu hlaselo, olunongenelo lwasekhaya lokukhangela abarhanelwa abarhanelwa, kubangela ukubanjwa ngokungenalusini kunye nokuhlaselwa ngamajoni aseMelika axhalabileyo ngokuchasana, ukulwa ngemipu xa iintsapho zingavumi ukungena emakhayeni abo, kwaye iibhombu ezisecaleni kwendlela zibekelwe ukuthintela nokuphazamisa uhlaselo. . Nanini na xa ama-Iraqi esilwa nxamnye nolu hlaselo, kukho umngcipheko wokulwa nemipu eqhubekayo, ethi yona ivelise izixhobo zase-US kunye nomoya ohlaselayo, otshabalalisa izakhiwo kunye neebhloko zonke.

"Ukunyuka 'kuye kunciphisa lo bulwaphulo, kodwa kungekhona ngenxa yokuba ama-Iraqi ayekile ukumelana nokuhlaselwa okanye ukuxhasa uxolo. Ubundlobongela buncitshisiwe kwiidolophu ezininzi zase-Anbar nasezidolophini zaseBaghdad kuba i-US ivumelekile ukuyeka ukuhlaselwa; oko kukuthi, i-US ayiyi kuphinda ifune ukubamba okanye ukubulala abavukeli bakaSunni abaye balwela iminyaka emine. Ukutshintshisana nabavukeli bavuma ukuba amapolisa abo abahlala kuwo (okwakusenziwa njalo, ngokuchasene ne-US), kunye nokukhusela iibhomu ze-jihadist.

"Isiphumo kukuba amabutho ase-US ngoku ahlala ngaphandle kweendawo ebezifudukile, okanye ahambe ngaphandle kokuhlasela nasiphi na izindlu okanye ahlasele nayiphi na izakhiwo.

"Ngoko ke, ngokugqithiseleyo, le mpu melelo ayizange ilukhuthaze le mimandla, kodwa ivume ukuba inkokheli yezobugandxi phezu koluntu, kwaye yanikezela ngokuhlawula kunye nezixhobo zokugcina nokunyusa ulawulo lwabo kuluntu."

IUnited States ekugqibeleni yenza okulungileyo kunokuba kuthintele ukuhlaselwa kwimizi yabantu. Kwakunxibelelwano nenjongo yalo, kungekudala okanye kamva, phuma kweli lizwe. Uxolo lwama-United States lwakha ukwesekwa okuqhubekayo kwiCongress yokurhoxisa phakathi kwe-2005 kunye ne-2008. Unyulo lwe-2006 lwathumela umyalezo ocacileyo kwi-Iraq ukuba ama-Amerika ayifunayo. I-Iraqi inokuphulaphula ngokugqithiseleyo loo myalezo kunokuba amalungu e-US Congress ayenayo. Nangona iqela le-Iraq Study Study e-2006 lixhasa ukuhoxiswa ngokukhawuleza. UBrian Katulis noLawrence Korb bathi,

". . . isigidimi sokuthi ukuzinikela kweMelika e-Iraq kwakungeyona impi eshukumisayo evulekile evulekile efana ne-Sunni Awakenings kwiphondo lase-Anbar ukusebenzisana ne-US ukulwa ne-Al Qaeda kwi-2006, intshukumo eyaqala ixesha elide ngaphambi kokuba i-2007 iqhube ngamandla eMelika. Isigijimi sokuba amaMerika ashiya nawo ashukumisela iArajis ukuba ibhalisele iikhosi zezokukhusela zelizwe kumanani okurekhoda. "

Ngethuba likaNovemba 2005, iinkokheli zamaqela ahlomileyo aseSunni zazama ukuxoxisana noxolo ne-United States, eyayingenomdla.

Ukugqithisa okukhulu kwindlobongela kwafika ekuzinikeleni kwe-2008 emva kwe-2011 ukuzibophelela ngokupheleleyo ekupheleni kwe-2009, kwaye ubundlobongela buwa ngaphezulu emva kokurhoxiswa kwemikhosi yase-US ukusuka kwiidolophu zasehlotyeni ze-XNUMX. Akukho nto iyenyuka imfazwe njengokwenyuka kwemfazwe. Ukuba le nto inokuguqulwa njengento yokunyuka kwemfazwe ithi into ethile malunga nenkqubo yokunxibelelana koluntu yaseUnited States, apho siya kutshintsha kwisahluko seshumi.

Esinye isizathu esibalulekileyo sokunciphisa ubundlobongela, okwakungekho nantoni na "ukunyuka," kwakuyisigqibo sikaMoqtada al-Sadr, inkokeli yokhuselo olukhulu kunabo bonke, ukulungiselela ukuyeka ukuphela komlilo. Njengoko uGareth Porter wabika,

"Ekupheleni kwe2007, ngokuchasene negosa elisemthethweni lase-Iraq, urhulumente wase-al-Maliki kunye nolawulo lwe-Bush babememezela esidlangalaleni i-Irani ngokunyanzela iSadr ukuba bavumelane nokuphela komlilo wokungabikho komnye - ukuhlaselwa kukaPetraeus. . . . Ngoko kwakuyi-restraint ye-Iran - kungeyiyo isicwangciso sobuqili sikaPetraeus - esaphelisa ngokuphumelelayo isisongelo esiphezulu seShiya. "

Omnye amandla amakhulu okunciphisa ubundlobongela baseIraq bekubonelelwa ngeentlawulo zemali kunye nezixhobo kwiSunni "Iimvumba zokuvusa" -iyindlela yokutywala kunye ne-80,000 Sunnis, ininzi kubo bantu bafana bahlasele i-US. Ngokomphengululi uNir Rosen, inkokeli yeminye impi eyayibhalwe kwi-payroll yaseUnited States "yamkela ngokukhululekile ukuba amanye amadoda akhe ayengama-Al Qaeda. Bajoyina amabutho aseMerika axhaswe, yena sa [id], ukuze babe nekhadi lesazisi njengokhuseleko xa bebanjelwa. "

I-United States yayihlawula i-Sunn yokulwa namabutho ama-Shiite ngelixa ivumela amaPolisa alawulwa yiShiite ukuba agxininise kwiindawo ze-Sunni. Isicwangciso sokuhlula kunye nokulibala sasingekho indlela ethembekileyo yokuzinza. Kwaye kwi-2010, ngeli xesha lo kubhala, ukuzinza kwakungenakwenzeka, urhulumente wayengakulwanga, iinjongo zokungazange zidibene kwaye zazikhunjulwe kakhulu, ukhuseleko lwaluyingozi, kwaye ulwaphulo-mthetho lwamazwe nolwase-US lwalulokhu lukhona. Ngelo xesha amanzi kunye nombane babengenanto, kwaye izigidi zababaleki zazingakwazi ukubuyela emakhaya abo.

Ngexesha "ukuqhuma" kwi-2007, amabutho ase-US ajikeleze kwaye avalelwa ngamashumi amawaka emaduna asebukhosini. Ukuba awukwazi ukubetha 'em, kwaye awukwazi ukusifumbathisa, ungayifaka' emva emva kweebha. Oku ngokuqinisekileyo kwanenjongo yokunciphisa ubundlobongela.

Kodwa imbangela enkulu yokunciphisa ubundlobongela ingancinci kwaye incinci ikhulume ngayo. Phakathi kukaJanuwari 2007 kunye noJulayi 2007 idolophu yaseBaghdad yatshintsha ukusuka kwi-65 ipesenti yeShiite kwi-75 yepesenti yaseShiite. Ukuvota kwe-UN kwi-2007 yababaleki base-Iraq baseSiriya bafumene ukuba i-78 ekhulwini yayisuka eBaghdad, kwaye phantse ukuba izigidigidi zababaleki ziye zafudukela eSiriya zivela e-Iraq kwi-2007 yodwa. NjengoJuan Cole wabhala ngoDisemba 2007,

". . . le datha ibonisa ukuba ngaphezu kwe-700,000 abahlali baseBaghdad babalekele esi sixeko se-6 yezigidi ngexesha le-US ',' nangaphezulu kwe-10 ekhulwini labantu. Phakathi kweziphumo eziphambili 'zokuhamba' kuye kwaba ukuguqula iBaghdad kwisixeko esibukrakra saseShiite kwaye ikhuphe amakhulu eminyaka aseAraqs ukusuka kwinqununu. "

Isiphelo sikaCole sixhaswa zizifundo zokukhutshwa kokukhanya okuvela kwindawo eziseBaghdad. Iindawo zaseSunni zaba mnyama njengoko abahlali babo babulawa okanye bakhutshwa, inkqubo eyathi yaphakama phambi “konyukelo” (ngoDisemba 2006 - Januwari 2007). Ngo-Matshi 2007,

". . . kunye nabantu abaninzi baseSunni bashiya ebalekela kwiphondo lase-Anbar, eSiriya naseJordani, kwaye intsalela yahlala kwiindawo zokuhlala zaseSunni eziseNtshona Baghdad kunye neenxalenye ze-Adhamiyya empuma yeBaghdad, ukuphazamiseka kwegazi. AmaShia aphumelele, ahla phantsi, kwaye ukulwa kwaphela. "

Ekuqaleni kwe-2008, uNir Rosen wabhala ngeemeko zase-Iraq ekupheleni kwe2007:

Usuku olubandayo, olumnyama ngoDisemba, kwaye ndihamba ngaphantsi kweSithandathu iSitalato kwisithili saseDora saseBaghdad, enye yezobudlobongela kunye nokwesabisa kwimihlaba engenazo. Ukuxhatshazwa yiminyaka emihlanu yokuxabana phakathi kwamabutho aseMelika, amabutho aseShiite, amaqela okunyuka kwamaSunni kunye ne-Al Qaeda, ubuninzi beDora ngoku liyidolophu yokuphila. Oku kukuthi 'ukunqoba' kubonakala kwiindawo ezikhethileyo zase-Iraq. Iintaba zotywala zihlala zimanzi. Uninzi lweefestile kwimimbala enemibala ephuhlileyo, kwaye umoya uphuzula kubo, ukubethela umkhosi.

"Indlu emva kwendlu ishiywe, imingxuma yombhobho yokubeka iindonga zayo, iingcango zayo zivulekile kwaye zingagcinwa, ezininzi zinefenitshala. Ziziphi iimpahla ezimbalwa ezihlala zihlanganiswa ngothuli olunqamlekileyo oluhlasela yonke indawo e-Iraq. Ukufika phezu kwamakhaya iindonga zokhuseleko eziphakamileyo ezilishumi elinambini ezakhiwe ngabantu baseMelika ukuba bahlule amaqela aphikisayo kwaye baxake abantu kwindawo yabo. Ukuxhotyiswa nokutshatyalaliswa yimfazwe yombango, ekhutshwe nguMongameli uBush u-"stealing", "u-Dora uvakalelwa kakhulu njengengxube eyincithakalo, engasemva kwe-konkthaptic yeendawo zokukhonkxa kuneendawo eziphilayo, ezihlala kuyo. Ngaphandle kwamanyathelo ethu, kukho ukuthula okupheleleyo. "

Oku akuchazi indawo apho abantu babekho uxolo. Kule ndawo abantu babefile okanye bafuduka. I-US "yonyuka" imikhosi yakhonza ukutywina izakhamuzi ezazisanda kuqeshana zisuka komnye. Iimbutho zamaSunni "zavusa" kwaye zihambelane nabahlali, kuba amaShiites asondele ekubhubhiseni ngokupheleleyo.

Ngo-Matshi i-2009 abavusi bevusiwe babuyela ekulweni namaMelika, kodwa ke ngoko kwakusungulwa inkolelo-mfundiso. Ngaloo ndlela, uBarack Obama wayengumongameli, ekuthiwa ngumviwa ukuba uphumelele "ngaphaya kwamaphupha ethu asendle." Ingqungquthela yokugqithiswa kwangoko yafakwa ekusebenziseni into eyayingenakwenzeka ukuba yenzelwe - ukubonisa ukunyuka kwamanye iimfazwe. Emva kokuba sele ehlulwe e-Iraq njengokunqoba, kwakuyixesha lokutshintshela ukuba i-propaganda idlulisele kwiMfazwe yase-Afghanistan. U-Obama wabeka igosa elidlulayo, uPeterraus, ophethe i-Afghanistan kwaye wamnika umkhosi wamasosha.

Kodwa akukho zizathu zangempela zokunciphisa ubudlova e-Iraq zazikhona e-Afghanistan, kwaye ukunyuka ngokwakho kwakunokwenzeka ukuba kwenzeke izinto zibe zibi nakakhulu. Ngokuqinisekileyo oko kwakungamava emva kokukhula kwe-2009 ka-Obama e-Afghanistan kwaye mhlawumbi iya kuba kwi-2010. Kuhle ukucinga ngenye indlela. Kuyinto enomdla ukucinga ukuba ukuzinikezela kunye nokunyamezela kuya kwenza ukuba kuphumelele isizathu esifanelekileyo. Kodwa imfazwe ayikho imbangela efanelekileyo, impumelelo kuyo akufanele ilandelwe nangona i-plausibly ifumaneka, kwaye ngohlobo lweemfazwe esizifumanayo ngoku "impumelelo" ayiyiqondi.