nguHyun Lee, Thunti, UDisemba 29, 2020
Kangangamashumi eminyaka, abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo base-US babuze, "Siyenza njani iNorth Korea ukuba iyeke izixhobo zenyukliya?" benyuka belambatha. Njengoko abalawuli beBiden belungiselela ukuthatha isikhundla, mhlawumbi lixesha lokubuza umbuzo owahlukileyo: "Sifumana uxolo njani noMntla Korea?"
Nantsi ingxaki ejongene neWashington. Kwelinye icala, i-US ayifuni ukuvumela iNorth Korea ukuba ibe nezixhobo zenyukliya kuba oko kunokukhuthaza amanye amazwe ukuba enze okufanayo. (IWashington sele ixakekile izama ukumisa amabhongo e-Iran ngenyukliya, ngelixa inani elikhulayo lamazwi agciniweyo eJapan naseSouth Korea nawo afuna ukufumana ezawo ii-nukes.)
I-US izamile ukufumana iNorth Korea ukuba inikezele izixhobo zayo zenyukliya ngoxinzelelo kunye nezohlwayo, kodwa loo ndlela iye yabuyisela umva, yenza lukhuni isigqibo sikaPyongyang sokuphucula iteknoloji yenyukliya kunye ne-missile. INorth Korea ithi ekuphela kwendlela eya kunikela ngayo izixhobo zayo zenyukliya kukuba i-US "iyawushiya umgaqo-nkqubo wayo okhohlakeleyo," - ngamanye amazwi, ithatha amanyathelo ahambelanayo ekunciphiseni izixhobo - kodwa ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, iWashington ayizange ishukume okanye ibonise nayiphi na injongo. ukuya kolo sukelo. Enyanisweni, ulawulo lweTrump luqhubekile ukwenza uqheliselo lwemfazwe oludibeneyo kunye noMzantsi Korea kunye unyanzeliso oluqinisiweyo yezohlwayo ngokuchasene neNorth Korea ngaphandle kwayo ukuzibophelela eSingapore ukwenza uxolo nePyongyang.
Ngena uJoe Biden. Iqela lakhe liza kuyicombulula njani le ngxaki? Ukuphindaphinda indlela efanayo engaphumelelanga kwaye ulindele iziphumo ezahlukeneyo - ke, uyazi ukuba lihamba njani ilizwi.
Abacebisi bakaBiden bayavumelana ukuba indlela yolawulo lukaTrump "yonke okanye akukho nto" - efuna ukuba iNorth Korea inikezele zonke izixhobo zayo - ayiphumelelanga. Endaweni yoko, bacebisa "indlela yokulawula iingalo": kuqala ukukhenkceza ukusebenza kwe-plutonium yaseNorth Korea kunye ne-uranium kwaye emva koko kuthathwe amanyathelo ongezelelweyo ukuya kwinjongo yokugqibela yedenuclearization epheleleyo.
Le yindlela ekhethwa ngunobhala welizwe u-Anthony Blinken, okhuthaza isivumelwano sethutyana sokuvala izixhobo zenyukliya zaseNorth Korea ukuze kuthengwe ixesha lokwenza isivumelwano sexesha elide. Uthi kufuneka sifumane amahlakani kunye neTshayina ebhodini ukuze sicinezele iNorth Korea: "cudisa uMntla Korea ukuze uyifumane kwitafile yothethathethwano.” "Kufuneka sinqumle iindlela zayo ezahlukeneyo kunye nokufikelela kwizixhobo," utshilo, kwaye abameli baxelele amazwe anabasebenzi abandwendwela baseNyakatho Korea ukuba babathumele ekhaya. Ukuba i-China ayizukusebenzisana, uBlinken ucebisa ukuba i-US isoyikise ngokhuseleko lwemijukujelwa ethunyelwe phambili kunye nokuzilolonga emkhosini.
Isindululo sikaBlinken sahluke kakhulu kwindlela engaphumelelanga yexesha elidlulileyo. Isengumgaqo-nkqubo woxinzelelo kunye nokwahlukaniswa ukufikelela kweyona njongo iphambili yokukhulula unilaterally iNorth Korea - umahluko kuphela kukuba abalawuli beBiden bazimisele ukuthatha ixesha elingakumbi ukuya apho. Kule meko, iNorth Korea iya kuqhubeka iqhubela phambili kwizixhobo zayo zenyukliya kunye nokukwazi ukuphosa. Ngaphandle kokuba i-US itshintshe kakhulu isikhundla sayo, ingxabano ehlaziyiweyo phakathi kwe-US kunye neNorth Korea ayinakuphepheka.
Endaweni yokujonga indlela yokufumana iNorth Korea ukuba iyeke ii-nukes zayo, ukubuza ukuba ungafikelela njani kuxolo olusisigxina eKorea kunokukhokelela kwiimpendulo ezahlukeneyo nezisisiseko. Onke amaqela - hayi iNorth Korea kuphela - anoxanduva lokuthatha amanyathelo okunciphisa izixhobo.
Emva kwayo yonke loo nto, i-US isenayo i-28,000 yamajoni eMzantsi Korea, kwaye kude kube mva nje, ibisoloko iqhuba umlo omkhulu wokuzilolonga obandakanya izicwangciso zogwayimbo lwangaphambi koMntla Korea. Uqeqesho lwangaphambili lwemfazwe oludibeneyo luquke ukubhabha i-B-2 iziqhushumbisi, eziyilelwe ukuwisa iibhombu zenyukliya kwaye zibiza abarhafi baseMelika malunga ne-130,000 yeedola ngeyure ukubhabha. Nangona i-US kunye noMzantsi Korea baye banciphisa ukuzilolonga kwabo ukususela kwingqungquthela ye-Trump-Kim kwi-2018, uMphathi we-US Forces Korea, u-Gen. Robert B. Abrams, uye ebizwa ukulungiselela ukuqaliswa kwakhona koqeqesho olukhulu lwemfazwe edibeneyo.
Ukuba abalawuli beBiden baqhubela phambili noqeqesho lwemfazwe ngo-Matshi olandelayo, luya kuhlaziya iingxwabangxwaba zomkhosi kwiPeninsula yaseKorea kwaye zonakalise naliphi na ithuba lokuthethathethana neNorth Korea kungekudala.
Indlela yokufumana uxolo kwiPeninsula yaseKorea
Ukunciphisa isoyikiso semfazwe yenyukliya kunye neNorth Korea kunye nokugcina ukhetho lokuphinda kuqhutywe iingxoxo kwixesha elizayo, ulawulo lwe-Biden lunokwenza izinto ezimbini kwiintsuku zokuqala ze-100: enye, ukuqhubeka nokunqunyanyiswa kwemfazwe enkulu yase-US-South Korea. iidrills; kunye nesibini, qalisa uphononongo lwesicwangciso somgaqo-nkqubo wayo waseNyakatho Korea oqala ngombuzo othi, "Sifumana njani uxolo olusisigxina kwiPeninsula yaseKorea?"
Inxalenye ebalulekileyo yokuseka uxolo olusisigxina kukuphelisa iMfazwe yaseKorea yahlala ingaconjululwa iminyaka engama-70, kunye nokutshintsha i-armistice (ukupheliswa kwemfazwe okwethutyana) ngesivumelwano soxolo esisisigxina. Yile nto iinkokeli ezimbini zaseKorea zavuma ukwenza kwiNgqungquthela yePanmunjom yembali kwi-2018, kwaye ingcamango inenkxaso yamalungu angama-52 e-US Congress ehlangene ne-House Resolution 152, ebiza ukuphela ngokusemthethweni kweMfazwe yaseKorea. Iminyaka engamashumi asixhenxe yemfazwe engasonjululwanga ayikhange ibangele ugqatso lweengalo olungapheliyo phakathi kwamaqela akwingxabano, idale nomda ongangenekiyo phakathi kweeKorea ezimbini ezigcine izigidi zeentsapho zahlukene. Isivumelwano soxolo esibophelela onke amaqela kwinkqubo ngokuthe ngcembe yokubeka izixhobo zawo phantsi siya kudala iimeko zoxolo ukuze la maKorea mabini aqalise ukusebenzisana kwakhona aze amanyanise iintsapho ezahlukeneyo.
Abantu abaninzi e-US bacinga ukuba iNorth Korea ayifuni uxolo, kodwa ukujonga emva kwiingxelo zayo ezidlulileyo kubonisa enye into. Ngokomzekelo, emva kweMfazwe yaseKorea, eyaphela ngo-1953, iNorth Korea yayiyinxalenye yeNkomfa yaseGeneva, eyayibizwe ngamaGunya amane - iUnited States, i-USSR yangaphambili, i-United Kingdom kunye neFransi - ukuxoxa ngekamva. yaseKorea. Ngokwengxelo engachazwanga yeGqiza lase-US, owayesakuba nguMphathiswa Wezangaphandle waseMntla Korea, uNam Il, kule nkomfa wathi "Umsebenzi ophambili kukuphumeza umanyano lwaseKorea ngokuguqula umbutho wemfazwe ube ngumanyano olunoxolo oluhlala luhleli [lwe] Korea kwimigaqo yedemokhrasi." Watyhola i-US “ngoxanduva kulwahlulo lwaseKorea nokubamba unyulo olwahlukeneyo phantsi ‘kwengcinezelo yamapolisa.’ ( Amagosa ase-US uDean Rusk noCharles Bonesteel bayahlulahlula iKorea nge38th parallel ngo-1945 ngaphandle kokubonisana nabaphi na abantu baseKorea, yaye I-US yayityhalele unyulo olwahlukileyo emazantsi nangona uninzi lwabantu baseKorea babenqwenela iKorea emanyeneyo, ezimeleyo.) Nangona kunjalo, uNam waqhubeka, "imfazwe yowe-1953 ngoku yavula indlela yomanyano olunoxolo." Ucebise ukurhoxiswa kwayo yonke imikhosi yangaphandle kwisithuba seenyanga ezintandathu kunye "nesivumelwano kulo lonke unyulo lwaseKorea ukuseka urhulumente omele ilizwe lonke."
INkomfa yaseGeneva ngelishwa yaphela ngaphandle kwesivumelwano saseKorea, ngenxa yenxalenye enkulu ye-US echasayo kwisindululo sikaNam. Ngenxa yoko, i-Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) phakathi kweeKorea yaba ngumda wamazwe ngamazwe.
Isikhundla esisisiseko seNorth Korea - ukuba i-armistice kufuneka ithatyathelw' indawo sisivumelwano soxolo "esivula indlela yomanyano olunoxolo" - siye savumelana kule minyaka ingama-70 idlulileyo. Yiloo nto kanye eyacetywa yiNdlu yeeNgwevu yase-US emva phaya ngowe-1974. Yiloo nto kanye eyayibhalwe kwileta yaseMntla Korea eyayithunyelwe ngowayesakuba yinkokeli yeSoviet Union uMikhail Gorbachev eyayisiya kuMongameli waseUnited States uRonald Reagan kwingqungquthela yabo eyayiseWashington ngowe-1987. oko abantu baseNyakatho baseKorea bazisa ngokuphindaphindiweyo kwiingxoxo zabo zenyukliya kunye noBill Clinton kunye noGeorge W. Bush.
Ulawulo lwe-Biden kufuneka lujonge emva-kwaye lwamkele-izivumelwano i-US esele zisayine kunye neNorth Korea. I-US-DPRK Joint Communique (esayinwe ngu-Clinton yolawulo kwi-2000), iNgxelo yeSix-Party Joint (esayinwe ngu-Bush yolawulo kwi-2005) kunye neSitetimenti esiHlangeneyo saseSingapore (esayinwe nguMongameli Trump kwi-2018) zonke zineenjongo ezintathu ezifanayo. : ukuseka ubudlelwane obuqhelekileyo, ukwakha uxolo olusisigxina kwiPeninsula yaseKorea kunye ne-denuclearize kwiPeninsula yaseKorea. Iqela leBiden lidinga imephu yendlela echaza ngokucacileyo ubudlelwane phakathi kwezi njongo zintathu zibalulekileyo.
Ulawulo lwe-Biden ngokuqinisekileyo lujongene nemiba emininzi ecinezelayo eya kufuna ingqalelo yalo kwangoko, kodwa ukuqinisekisa ukuba ubudlelwane be-US-North Korea abubuyeli emva kobuqhetseba obusizise kumda wenzonzobila yenyukliya ngo-2017 kufanele kube yeyona nto iphambili.
