Okukodwa: Ubhukuqo-mbuso oluxhaswa yi-US e-Ukraine ngo-2014 lwabangela iMfazwe eNtsha eCold kunye neRussia, kodwa uMongameli uTrump unokurhoxisa ukungavisisani ngesicwangciso sobuchule sokusombulula i-Ukraine, ubhala uJonathan Marshall.
NguJonathan Marshall, News Consortium
Ukuba uDonald Trump ufuna ukwenza uphawu oluqinisekileyo nolwakhayo kumgaqo-nkqubo wamazwe angaphandle wase-US kwasekuqaleni kobongameli bakhe, akukho ndawo ingcono yokuqalisa kunokuncedisa ukuphelisa imfazwe ekhohlakeleyo e-Ukraine. kwafa abantu abamalunga ne-10,000 XNUMX.
Ulawulo luka-Obama yanceda ekuvuseni loo mfazwe ngokuzama ukukhupha i-Ukraine kwi-orbit yaseRussia kunye nokhuseleko lwaseNtshona kunye noqoqosho. Ukusebenza kunye ne-European Union, iWashington yaqhubela phambili uqhanqalazo lwasezitalatweni olukhokelela kwi-putsch enobundlobongela ngokuchasene norhulumente onyuliweyo waseKiev ngoFebruwari 2014. I-Moscow yaphendula ngokudibanisa (okanye, ngokuxhomekeke kwimbono yakho, ukudibanisa kwakhona) neCrimea ethetha isiRashiya, ekwayiyo. Ikomkhulu le-Black Sea Fleet yaseMoscow, kunye nenkxaso ye-pro-Russia separatists kwimimandla esempuma yeDonetsk naseLuhansk.
Ukusukela ngoko, la macala mabini aye alwa kwade kwaphalala igazi. Ngaphandle kokubulala amawaka abemi, imfazwe iye yabulala lutshonise uqoqosho lwaseUkraine kwaye ikhuliswe urhwaphilizo oluxhaphakileyo. Izohlwayo zase-US kunye ne-EU ziye zatsala uqoqosho lwaseRussia kwaye zaphazamisa intsebenziswano phakathi kweWashington neMoscow kwezinye iithiyetha. Ukunyuka kwengxabano phakathi kwe-NATO kunye neRashiya kunyuse kakhulu amathuba okuba ukujongana ngomkhosi ngengozi phakathi kwawona mazwe mabini anamandla enyukliya.
Elona themba lihle nge-Ukraine - kunye nentsebenziswano yaseMpuma-ntshona ehlaziyiweyo-yiMinsk Protocol, esayinwe ngamaqela ase-Ukraine, eRashiya, kunye naseYurophu kwikomkhulu laseBelarus ngoSeptemba 5, 2014. Isivumelwano sabonelela ngokuyeka ukulwa, ukutshintshiselana kwamabanjwa. , kunye nesakhelo sokuhlaliswa kwezopolitiko esekelwe ekunikeni imimandla yaseDonetsk neLuhansk "isikhundla esikhethekileyo."
Eso sivumelwano saqhawuka phakathi komlo de la maqela atyikitya iSivumelwano saseMinsk-2 ngoFebruwari 12, 2015. Salungiselela uhlaziyo lomgaqo-siseko, unyulo kwiiriphabliki ezimbini, nokubuyiselwa kolongamo lwaseUkraine kwimida yayo. Kodwa iKiev ayenzanga ntshukumo inzulu yokuqonda imeko ekhethekileyo yemimandla eqhekekileyo, kwaye la macala mabini abandakanyeka kwimfazwe engapheliyo ukusukela ngoko.
Amazwi okugqibela
Umongameli u-Obama kunye noPutin batshintshiselana ngento enokuba ibiyeyokugqibela, ukudelela magama kumxholo kwi-Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit ePeru kule nyanga. U-Obama "ubongoze uMongameli uPutin ukuba abambelele kwizibophelelo zaseRussia phantsi kwezivumelwano zeMinsk," ngelixa isithethi saseRashiya sathi la madoda mabini "abonise ukuzisola kuba kwakungenakwenzeka ukwenza inkqubela e-Ukraine."
Njengoko ungcoliseko lwangoku lomgaqo-nkqubo wamazwe angaphandle luhamba, nangona kunjalo, i-imbroglio yaseUkraine inokubonelela ngawona mathuba okucoca okuvuzayo. Ukwenza njalo kuya kufuna ukuba omabini amacala avume impazamo ethile kwaye afumane iindlela zobuchule zokusindisa ubuso.
Ngethamsanqa, uMongameli-onyuliweyo uTrump udale ukuvulwa kwendawo yokuhlala ngokufikelela kuPutin ngexesha lokhankaso lonyulo kunye. ukwehla ngokucacileyo ukutyhola iRussia ngokuthimba kwayo iCrimea (eyayilandela uhlolo-zimvo olwalulungiswe ngokukhawuleza apho iziphumo ezisemthethweni zabonisa ukuba ama-96 ekhulwini abavoti akhetha ukuyishiya iUkraine aze abuyele eRashiya).
Kukwakho nemiqondiso emincinci yenkqubela phambili enika ithemba. Isivumelwano esilinganiselweyo sokususa emkhosini sityikitywe ngoSeptemba kukhokelele ekurhoxeni ngumkhosi waseUkraine kunye nabazahluleli be-Russia abazahlula kwisixeko esincinci kwimpuma yeUkraine. Ukuhoxiswa kwaqinisekiswa ngababukeli abavela kuMbutho woKhuseleko kunye neNtsebenziswano eYurophu (OSCE), iqela kwizivumelwano zeMinsk. Okwangoku, i-Ukraine, iJamani, iFransi kunye neRashiya ukusebenza kwimaphu yendlela entsha ukomeleza ukupheliswa kokudubula.
Iimeko zoXolo
NgoJuni 2015 udliwano-ndlebe noCharlie Rose, uPutin yabeka iimeko ezicacileyo nezifanelekileyo ukwenza isivumelwano seMinsk intonga:
“Namhlanje kufuneka ngokuyintloko sithobele zonke izivumelwano ekufikelelwe kuzo eMinsk ... Kwangaxeshanye, ndingathanda ukuzoba . . . ingqalelo yawo onke amahlakani ethu kwinto yokuba asinakuyenza loo nto sicalanye. Sihlala siva into efanayo, ngokuphindaphindiweyo njenge-mantra - ukuba iRashiya kufuneka ibe nefuthe kumzantsi-mpuma we-Ukraine. Singo. Nangona kunjalo, akunakwenzeka ukusombulula ingxaki ngempembelelo yethu kumzantsi-mpuma kuphela.
“Kufuneka kubekho impembelelo kumagunya akhoyo ngoku eKiev, nto leyo esingenakuyenza. Le yindlela ekufuneka amahlakani ethu aseNtshona ayithathe – lawo aseYurophu naseMelika. Masisebenze kunye. …Sikholelwa ukuba ukusombulula imeko kufuneka siphumeze izivumelwano zaseMinsk, njengoko benditshilo. Iinkalo zokuzinziswa kwezopolitiko zingundoqo apha. Kukho ezininzi. . . .
"Eyokuqala yinguqu yomgaqo-siseko, kwaye izivumelwano zaseMinsk zithetha ngokucacileyo: ukubonelela ngokuzimela okanye, njengoko bethetha, ukuhanjiswa kwamandla. . .
“Into yesibini ekufuneka yenziwe—umthetho owawiswa ngaphambilana ngewonga elikhethekileyo . . . ILuhansk neDonetsk, iiriphabliki ezingaziwayo, kufuneka zenziwe. Kwapasiswa, kodwa akwenziwanga manyathelo. Oku kufuna isisombululo se-Supreme Rada - iPalamente yase-Ukraine - ekwabandakanywa kwizivumelwano zeMinsk. . . .
“Into yesithathu ngumthetho woxolelo. Akunakwenzeka ukuba ube nengxoxo yezopolitiko nabantu abasongelwa ngentshutshiso yolwaphulo-mthetho. Kwaye ekugqibeleni, kufuneka bawise umthetho wonyulo loomasipala kule mimandla kwaye bazenzele ngokwabo unyulo. Konke oku kuchazwe kwizivumelwano zeMinsk. . . .
"Ndiyaphinda, kubalulekile ngoku ukuba nengxoxo ngqo phakathi kweLuhansk, iDonetsk kunye neKiev - le nto ayikho."
Ikamva laseCrimea
Naluphi na ulungiso oluhlala luhleli luya kufuna ukuthomalalisa malunga neCrimea, apho uPutin afunge ukuba akasoze arhoxe.
NjengoRay McGovern, owayesakuba ngumhlalutyi oyintloko weCIA waseRussia, u phawule, ukufakwa kweCrimea kwaphula isibambiso esenziwa yiRashiya kwi-1994 - kunye ne-Great Britain kunye ne-United States - "intlonipho yokuzimela kunye nolongamo kunye nemida ekhoyo ye-Ukraine," njengomqathango wokuba i-Ukraine inikezele izixhobo zayo zenyukliya. Kakade ke, iUnited States kunye ne-EU zazisele zaphule isibhambathiso esifanayo ngokuxhasa ubhukuqo-mbuso nxamnye norhulumente onyuliweyo welizwe.
UMcGovern ucaphule ezinye "iimeko ezongezelelekileyo, ezibandakanya i-alamu phakathi kwamaCrimea malunga nokuba ukugxothwa kukamongameli wase-Ukraine ngokungekho kumgaqo-siseko kungathetha ntoni kubo, kunye nephupha elibi laseMoscow elingenasihlahla lokuthatha indawo enkulu yaseRussia, kunye namanzi ashushu kuphela, isiseko somkhosi waselwandle eSevastopol eCrimea. .”
Ukuxhasa ukuthinjwa, abasemagunyeni baseRashiya nabaseCrimea nabo balatha koko kungxama Sompempe eyayibanjelwe eCrimea ngo-Matshi 2014, nto leyo eyaphumela kwinkxaso yeepesenti ze-96 zokuhlanganisana kunye neRashiya, ubudlelwane obuqala kwiNkulungwane yeshumi elinesibhozo. Okulandelayo iivoti zoluvo Crimean, eqhutywe ngamafemu aseNtshona, baye baqinisekisa kakhulu inkxaso ye-referendum ye-2014 ngokubuyela eRashiya. Kodwa i-referendum ayizange ibe nabakhi-mkhanyo bamazwe ngamazwe kwaye ayizange yamkelwe yi-United States kunye nezinye iintlanga zaseNtshona.
Ukugxeka isihlomelo kwi-a intetho enyukayo malunga “nolawulo lomthetho” kunye nokuzinikela kweMelika kwimigaqo yehlabathi jikelele, uMongameli u-Obama wathelekisa iCrimea neKosovo, leyo iNATO yaqhawula ngenkani eSerbia ngowe-1999.
U-Obama uthe, “iKosovo ishiye iSerbia kuphela emva kokuba uhlolo lwezimvo luququzelelwe ngaphandle kwemida yomthetho wamazwe ngamazwe, kodwa ngokusebenzisana ngononophelo neZizwe eziManyeneyo kunye nabamelwane baseKosovo. Akukho nanye kwezi ekufutshane ukuba yenzeke eCrimea. ”
Ngokwenyani, akukho nanye kwezi esondele eKosovo, nayo. Ibali lika-Obama laliyintsomi, kodwa yaqinisekisa ukuba semthethweni okunamandla okunikelwa yi-referenda ethandwayo, njengabo base-Great Britain phezu kokuzimela kwe-Scottish okanye i-Brexit.
Nangona kunjalo, njengenxalenye yesisombululo esisisigxina sengxaki enkulu yaseUkraine, abasayinileyo baseMinsk banokuvuma ukubamba enye, i-referendum ebophelelayo eCrimea phantsi kweliso lamazwe ngamazwe ukuba ithathe isigqibo sokuba ingaba ihlala phantsi kolawulo lwaseRashiya okanye ibuyele e-Ukraine.
Ukufumana ukuthengwa kweRussia, iUnited States kunye namahlakani ayo aseYurophu kufuneka bavume ukuphakamisa izohlwayo ukuba iMoscow iyayithobela ireferendamu kunye neminye imiqathango yesivumelwano saseMinsk. Bafanele bavume ukukhupha ukufakwa kwe-Ukraine kwi-NATO, isono sokuqala esahlwayela imbewu yentlekele phakathi kweRashiya neNtshona. IRashiya, nayo, ingavuma demilitarize umda wayo kunye Ukraine.
Imiqobo ekuHlaziyweni
UMongameli uPutin uye wabonisa ukuzimisela kwakhe ukulalanisa ngeendlela ezininzi, kuquka nokudubula intloko yakhe hardline abasebenzi, Sergei Ivanov, kunye kwamkela ubukho bababukeli abaxhobileyo abavela kwi-OSCE ukubeka iliso kwisivumelwano seMinsk.
Kodwa imiqobo emikhulu isaphazamisa inkqubela. Enye yi Ukumiswa kukaMongameli Petro Poroshenko ebusweni nenkcaso kwiMinsk ngokwesivumelwano Abemi baseUkraine. I-Kiev kufuneka inikwe ukhetho oluqinileyo: hamba yedwa, okanye udibanise ukuba ufuna ukuqhubeka nokuxhaswa kwezoqoqosho kwi-United States naseNtshona Yurophu. Ulawulo luka-Obama luthe cwaka bongozwa urhulumente wasePoroshenko ukuba ahloniphe isivumelwano saseMinsk, kodwa akazange abeke amazinyo emva kwezibongozo zakhe.
Omnye umqobo omkhulu bubutshaba obuvela kumajoni aseNtshona acebisa ukuxhobisa i-Ukraine ukuze iqubisane neRussia. Imizekelo ephambili ibandakanya umenzi womgaqo-nkqubo weSebe likarhulumente eUkraine, UVictoria Nuland; owayesakuba yiNkumanda ye-NATO Gen. Philip Breedlove, owaba u ngcolisa ngokukhupha izilumkiso eziphakamileyo malunga nokusebenza komkhosi waseRashiya; USihlalo weKomiti yeSenethi yeeNkonzo zesiXhobo uJohn McCain; kwaye UStephen Hadley, Ilungu lebhodi Raytheon kunye nomcebisi wangaphambili wezokhuseleko wesizwe kuMongameli uGeorge W. Bush, owathi zihlalo i-Orwellian ebizwa ngokuba yi-United States Institute for Peace.
Kodwa uTrump uya kuba nenkululeko enkulu njengomphathi oyintloko wokukhaba iingcebiso zabo kwaye abeke umkhombandlela omtsha womgaqo-nkqubo we-NATO eUkraine naseRussia ngokubanzi. Unayo yonke into yokuzuza ngokuqhawula umjikelo wengxabano yezopolitiko kunye neMoscow.
Umlingane e-Kremlin uya kuwaphucula ngokungenakulinganiswa amathuba akhe okwenza izivumelwano kuMbindi Mpuma, ukufumana indlela yokuphuma e-Afghanistan, kunye nokulawula i-China.
Kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezizayo kufuneka zisixelele ukuba uTrump unokuzimela, ukucinga, kunye nokufuna ukwenza into elungileyo.
