nguMichael T. Klare, ngoNovemba 19, 2017
ukusuka TomDispatch
Mhlawumbi ubucinga ukuba izixhobo zenyukliya zaseMelika, kunye namawaka-waka okutshatyalaliswa kwesixeko, okunokuthi kutshabalalise impucuko-yemfazwe ye-thermonuclear, yayininzi ngokwaneleyo ukunqanda naluphi na umchasi onokucinga ukuba ahlasele i-US ngee-nukes zabo. Ewe, kufumaniseke ukuba ubungalunganga.
I-Pentagon iye yakhathazeka ukuba i-arsenal iyoyikisa ngokwaneleyo. Emva kwayo yonke loo nto - ke ingxabano iyahamba - izaliswe zizixhobo ezindala (ezinokuthi zithembeke) zamandla atshabalalisayo kangangokuba mhlawumbi, mhlawumbi, noMongameli uTrump unokuthandabuza ukuzisebenzisa ukuba utshaba lusebenzise ii-nukes ezincinci, ezingenabungozi kwidabi elizayo. . Ngokufanelekileyo, abacwangcisi bemfazwe base-US kunye nabavelisi bezixhobo bazimisele ukwenza loo mkhosi “usebenziseke” ngakumbi ukuze banike umongameli “ukhetho” olongezelelekileyo lwenyukliya kulo naliphi na ibala ledabi elizayo. (Ukuba awukaziva ngathi uxhalabile okwangoku, kufanele ukuba unjalo.) Ngelixa kuthiwa oku kuyakwenza ukuba uhlaselo olunjalo lube luncinci, kulula kakhulu ukucinga ukuba izixhobo ezitsha kunye nezicwangciso zokusungula zinokunyuka njani. umngcipheko wokubhenela kwangethuba kwizixhobo zenyukliya ngexesha longquzulwano, okulandelwa kukwanda okuyintlekele.
Ukuba uMongameli uTrump angakwazi ukwenza izixhobo zenyukliya zaseMelika ukuba zisebenziseke ngakumbi, akumele kumangalise, kuba kubonakala ngathi. ukuthathakunye nemiboniso yamandla amakhulu omkhosi. (Ebe vuyiswa xa, ngo-Epreli ophelileyo, enye yeenjengele zakhe yayalela, okokuqala, esona sixhobo sinamandla esingenanyukliya i-US inaso. ehlile e-Afghanistan.) Phantsi kwemfundiso yenyukliya ekhoyo, njengoko kucingelwa lulawulo luka-Obama emva kowama-2010, eli lizwe laliza kuphumelela. sebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya kuphela “kwiimeko ezinzima” ukukhusela izinto ezibalulekileyo zelizwe okanye amahlakani alo. Eyayingavumelekanga yayikukusebenzisa zona njengesixhobo sezopolitiko sokuhlanganisa amazwe abuthathaka kumgca. Nangona kunjalo, kuDonald Trump, indoda esele ikhona yongelwa ukuzisa kuMntla Korea “umlilo noburhalarhume obungazange bubonwe lihlabathi,” indlela enjalo ingqineka ingqongqo gqitha. Yena kunye nabacebisi bakhe, kubonakala ngathi, bafuna ii-nukes ezinokuthi ziqeshwe kulo naliphi na inqanaba elinokubakho lengxabano yamandla amakhulu okanye abonakaliswe njenge-apocalyptic elingana neklabhu enkulu yokwesabisa abalingane abancinci.
Ukwenza i-arsenal yase-US isebenziseke ngakumbi kufuna iindidi ezimbini zotshintsho kumgaqo-nkqubo wenyukliya: ukuguqula imfundiso ekhoyo ukuze kupheliswe izithintelo ezinokuthi zisetyenziswe njani izixhobo ezinjalo ngexesha lemfazwe kunye nokugunyazisa uphuhliso nokuveliswa kwezizukulwana ezitsha zezixhobo zenyukliya ezikwaziyo, phakathi kwezinye izinto. ugwayimbo lwedabi lobuchule. Konke oku kulindeleke ukuba kudityaniswe kuphononongo lokuqala lolawulo lwenyukliya (NPR), oluza kukhutshwa ekupheleni kwalo nyaka okanye ekuqaleni kuka-2018.
Imixholo yayo ayizukwaziwa de kube ngoko - kwaye nangona kunjalo, uluntu lwaseMelika luya kufumana ukufikelela kuphela kolona xwebhu lulinganiselweyo loxwebhu oluhlelwe kakhulu. Okwangoku, ezinye zeempawu ze-NPR sele zicacile kwizimvo ezenziwe ngumongameli kunye nabaphathi bakhe abaphezulu. Kwaye inye into ecacileyo: izithintelo ekusetyenzisweni kwezixhobo ezinjalo ebusweni besixhobo esinokubakho sokutshabalalisa abantu abaninzi, kungakhathaliseki ukuba ingakanani na intshabalalo, iya kupheliswa kwaye eyona sixhobo senyukliya sinamandla kwesi sijikelezi-langa siya kwenziwa ngakumbi. .
Ukutshintsha iNgqondo yeNyukliya
Isikhokelo sobuchule esibonelelwe yiNPR entsha yolawulo kusenokwenzeka ukuba sibe neziphumo ezide. NjengoJohn Wolfsthal, owayesakuba ngumlawuli weBhunga leSizwe loKhuseleko kulawulo lwezixhobo kunye nokunganyangeki, Yibeke kwinkupho yakutshanje yeArms Control Today, olu xwebhu luya kuchaphazela “indlela iUnited States, umongameli wayo, namandla ayo enyukliya abonwa ngayo ngamahlakani neentshaba ngokufanayo. Okubaluleke ngakumbi, uphononongo luseka isikhokelo sezigqibo ezixhasa ulawulo, ukugcinwa, kunye nokuphuculwa kwezixhobo zenyukliya kwaye ziphembelela indlela iCongress ejonga ngayo kwaye ixhase ngemali amandla enyukliya.
Unale nto engqondweni, qwalasela i khokelo ibonelelwe luphononongo lwemeko yenyukliya yexesha lika-Obama. Ikhutshwe ngomzuzu xa i-White House yayikulangazelela ukubuyisela isidima seMelika kwihlabathi emva kokuhlasela kukaGeorge W. Bush e-Iraq kunye neenyanga ezintandathu emva kokuba umongameli efumene. wonngeBhaso likaNobel ngozimiselo lwakhe lokuphelisa izixhobo ezinjalo, oko kwenza ukungazaliswa kwezixhobo kube yeyona nto iphambili. Kuthe kusenjalo, yakujongela phantsi ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya phantsi kwayo nayiphi na imeko malunga nalo naliphi na ibala ledabi elinokucingeleka. Yathi eyona njongo yayo iphambili yayikukunciphisa “indima yezixhobo zenyukliya zaseUnited States kukhuseleko lwelizwe laseUnited States.”
Njengoko uxwebhu lubonisile, kwakukhe kwaba ngumgaqo-nkqubo waseMelika ukucinga ukusebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya ngokuchasene nokwakhiwa kwetanki yaseSoviet, umzekelo, kwingxabano enkulu yaseYurophu (imeko apho i-USSR yayikholelwa ukuba inenzuzo kwisiqhelo, amandla angeyonyukliya). Ngowama-2010, loo mihla yayisele ihambile, njengokuba yayinjalo iSoviet Union. IWashington, njengoko i-NPR yaphawula, ngoku inethuba elikhulu kwizixhobo eziqhelekileyo. “Ngokutshoyo,” iqukumbelele ngelithi, “iUnited States iya kuqhubeka isomeleza amandla aqhelekileyo kwaye inciphise indima yezixhobo zenyukliya ekuthinteleni uhlaselo olungelulo lwenyukliya.”
Isicwangciso senyukliya esijolise ngokukodwa ekuthinteleni uqhankqalazo lokuqala oluchasene neli lizwe okanye amahlakani alo akufuneki ukuba kubekho imfumba enkulu yezixhobo. Kangangokuba, indlela enjalo yavula indlela yokuncipha okungaphaya kobukhulu be-arsenal kwaye ikhokelele ekubeni ngo-2010 kusayinwe i-arsenal. Isivumelwano esitsha sokuQala kunye namaRussia, egunyazisa ukuncitshiswa kabukhali kweentloko zenyukliya kunye neenkqubo zokuhanjiswa kweenkonzo kuwo omabini la mazwe. Icala ngalinye laliza kukhawulelwa kwii-warheads ze-1,550 kunye nendibaniselwano ethile yeenkqubo zokuhanjiswa kwe-700, kubandakanywa imijukujelwa ye-ballistic ye-intercontinental (i-ICBMs), imijukujelwa ye-ballistic eyasungulwa ngaphantsi kolwandle (i-SLBMs), kunye neziqhushumbisi ezinzima.
Indlela enjalo, nangona kunjalo, ayizange ihlale kakuhle nabanye abasemkhosini kunye neetanki zokucinga ezilondolozayo. Abagxeki bolu hlobo bahlala bekhomba kwiinguqu ekucingelwa ukuba zitshintshe kwimfundiso yomkhosi waseRussia ecebisa utyekelo olukhulu lokusebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya kwimfazwe enkulu ne-NATO, ukuba iqale ukuhamba kakubi kwicala labo. Enjalo "uthintelo lweqhinga” (ibinzana elinentsingiselo eyahlukileyo kubantu baseRashiya kunabo baseNtshona) lisenokuphumela ekusetyenzisweni kwezikrweqe zenyukliya “ezinobuchule” ezinemveliso ephantsi nxamnye neendawo ezinqabisekileyo zotshaba, ukuba imikhosi yaseRashiya eYurophu ibibonakala isecicini lokoyiswa. Ukuba le mfundiso ilawula kangakanani ukucinga komkhosi waseRashiya akukho mntu waziyo. Nangona kunjalo icatshulwa rhoqo ngabo baseNtshona bakholelwa ukuba isicwangciso senyukliya sika-Obama ngoku siyingozi ngaphandle kwaye imema iMoscow ukuba yonyuse ukuthembela kwayo kwizixhobo zenyukliya.
Ezo zikhalazo zazidla ngokukhutshwa “kwizinto eziPhambili zoKhuseleko eziSixhenxe zoLawulo olutsha,” ngoDisemba ka-2016. umbiko yiBhodi yeNzululwazi yezoKhuselo (DSB), iqela leengcebiso elixhaswa yiPentagon elinika ingxelo kunobhala wezokhuselo. Yaqukumbela ngelithi: “I-DSB ayikaqinisekanga, ukuba ukujongelwa phantsi kwesithintelo senyukliya selizwe kuya kubangela ukuba namanye amazwe enze okufanayo.” Yathi emva koko yalatha kwisicwangciso esicingelwa ukuba saseRashiya sokusongela ukusebenzisa ugwayimbo lwenyukliya olunesivuno esiphantsi ukunqanda uhlaselo lwe-NATO. Ngelixa abahlalutyi abaninzi baseNtshona baye kubuzwa ukunyaniseka kwamabango anjalo, i-DSB yagxininisa ukuba i-US kufuneka iphuhlise izixhobo ezifanayo kwaye ibe kwirekhodi njengoko ilungele ukuzisebenzisa. Njengoko isitsho le ngxelo, iWashington idinga "ishishini lenyukliya elibhetyebhetye ngakumbi elinokuvelisa, ukuba kuyimfuneko, ukhetho olukhawulezayo, olulungiselelwe ukusetyenziswa kwenyukliya ukuba ukhetho olukhoyo olungezonyukliya okanye lwenyukliya lungqineka lungonelanga."
Olu hlobo lokucinga ngoku lubonakala ngathi luvuselela indlela yolawulo lukaTrump kwizixhobo zenyukliya kwaye lubonakaliswa kwiitweets zikamongameli ngamaxesha athile ngalo mbandela. NgoDisemba wokugqibela wama-22, umzekelo, yena tweeted, "I-United States kufuneka yomeleze kakhulu kwaye yandise amandla ayo enyukliya de kube lixesha apho umhlaba ubuyela ezingqondweni malunga nee-nukes." Nangona engakhange acacise - yayiyi-Twitter, emva kwayo yonke into - indlela yakhe yabonisa ngokucacileyo indawo ye-DSB kunye nento abacebisi bakhe ababemxelela ngayo ngokungathandabuzekiyo.
Kungekudala emva koko, njengomphathi-ntloko osanda kufakwa, uTrump watyikitya i- imemo kamongameli iyalela unobhala wezokhuselo ukuba enze uphononongo lwemeko yenyukliya eqinisekisa ukuba "i-United States isithintelo senyukliya seyangoku, yomelele, ibhetyebhetye, yomelele, ilungile, kwaye ilungiselelwe ngokufanelekileyo ukunqanda izoyikiso zenkulungwane yama-21 kunye nokuqinisekisa abo sisebenzisana nabo."
Ewe kunjalo, asikazazi iinkcukacha zeTrumpian NPR ezayo. Nangona kunjalo, ngokuqinisekileyo iya kuphosa indlela ka-Obama kookrebe kwaye ikhuthaze indima eyomeleleyo yezixhobo zenyukliya, kunye nokwakhiwa komkhosi “oguquguqukayo” ngakumbi, okwaziyo ukunika umongameli ukhetho oluninzi lohlaselo, kubandakanya olusezantsi- ugwayimbo lwesivuno.
Ukuphucula iArsenal
I-Trumpian NPR ngokuqinisekileyo iya kukhuthaza iinkqubo ezintsha zezixhobo zenyukliya ezibizwa ngokuba zibonelela ngabaphathi abakhulu bexesha elizayo "uluhlu" olukhulu lokhetho logwayimbo. Ngokukodwa, ulawulo lu cinga ukuthanda ukufunyanwa “kwezixhobo zenyukliya ezinobuchule obunemveliso ephantsi” kunye neenkqubo ezininzi zonikezelo ezihamba nazo, kuquka imijukujelwa yokuhamba ngenqanawa emoyeni nasemhlabeni. Ingxoxo iya kwenziwa kwangaphambili ukuba izixhobo zolu hlobo ziyafuneka ukuze zihambelane nenkqubela phambili yaseRussia ebaleni.
Ngaphantsi koqwalaselo, ngokutsho kwabo banolwazi lwangaphakathi, kukuphuhliswa kohlobo lwezixhobo ezinobuchule ezinokuthi, zithi, zicime izibuko elikhulu okanye ukufakwa komkhosi, endaweni yesixeko sonke, isimbo saseHiroshima. Njengegosa elinye likarhulumente elingaziwa Yibeke kwiPolitico, "Obu buchule bufanelekile kakhulu." Omnye wongeze wathi, "[I-NPR] kufuneka ibuze ngokuthembekileyo emkhosini ukuba yintoni abayifunayo ukuthintela iintshaba" nokuba izixhobo ezikhoyo "ziya kuba luncedo kuzo zonke iimeko esizibonayo."
Gcina ukhumbula ukuba, phantsi kolawulo luka-Obama (kuyo yonke intetho yayo yokupheliswa kwenyukliya), ucwangciso kunye nomsebenzi wokuqala woyilo weminyaka elishumi, iitriliyoni zeedola-plus "lwanamhlanje” sezixhobo zenyukliya zaseMelika kwakusele kuvunyelwene ngazo. Ke, ngokwezixhobo zokwenyani, inguqulelo kaDonald Trump yexesha lenyukliya yayisele iqhuba kakuhle ngaphambi kokuba angene kwiOfisi ye-Oval. Kwaye ke, eUnited States sele sele u nelayo iintlobo ezininzi zezixhobo zenyukliya, kuquka i-B61 "ibhombu yomxhuzulane" kunye ne-W80 ye-missile warhead enokuguqulwa - ixesha lokuthengisa "licofelwe phantsi" - ukuvelisa ukuqhuma okuphantsi kweekhilotons ezimbalwa (ngaphantsi kwamandla, oko kukuthi, kuneebhombu ezatshabalalisa iHiroshima neNagasaki ngoAgasti 1945). Oko, nangona kunjalo, kuyangqina nantoni na kodwa ngokwaneleyo kubaxhasi bezixhobo zenyukliya “ezilungiselelwe”.
Inkqubo eqhelekileyo yokuhanjiswa kwee-nukes zexesha elizayo ezinokuthi zifumane imvume ekhawulezileyo sisixhobo esimiyo esinexesha elide (LRSO), umjukujelwa ohamba phambili, othululwayo womoya ozakuqhutywa ngabaqhushumbisi be-B-2, abazala babo abadala i-B-52s. , okanye ikamva B-21. Njengoko kubonwa ngoku, i-LRSO iya kuba nakho ukuthwala inyukliya okanye intloko yemfazwe eqhelekileyo. Ngo-Agasti, uMkhosi woMoya yanikezelwa bobabini uRaytheon kunye no-Lockheed Martin $900 yezigidi zeerandi kumsebenzi wokuqala woyilo kwiiprototypes zale nkqubo yonikezelo, kwaye enye yazo inokukhethelwa uphuhliso olupheleleyo, isithembiso ekulindeleke ukuba indleko amawaka ezigidi zeerandi.
Abagxeki bomjukujelwa ocetywayo, kuquka nowayesakuba nguNobhala wezoKhuselo uWilliam Perry, ngxabano ukuba i-US sele inazo ngaphezu kokwaneleyo komlilo wenyukliya ukunqanda uhlaselo lotshaba ngaphandle kwayo. Ukongeza, njengoko ebonisa, ukuba i-LRSO yayiza kusungulwa ngentloko yemfazwe yesiqhelo kumanqanaba okuqala ongquzulwano, umchasi usenokucinga ukuba yayiphantsi kohlaselo lwenyukliya kwaye aphindezele ngokufanelekileyo, ebeka i-scalatory spiral ekhokelela kuyo yonke i-thermonuclear. imfazwe. Abaxhasi, nangona kunjalo, fungayo ukuba imijukujelwa “emidala” yokuhamba ngenqanawa kufuneka itshintshwe ukuze kunikwe umongameli ukuba abe bhetyebhetye ngakumbi ngesixhobo esinjalo, uTrump onengqiqo kunye nabacebisi bakhe baqinisekile ukuba bayakwamkela.
Ihlabathi Elilungele Inyukliya
Ukukhutshwa kophononongo olulandelayo lokuma kwenyukliya ngokungathandabuzekiyo kuya kubangela ingxoxo-mpikiswano malunga nokuba ilizwe elinezixhobo zenyukliya ezinkulu ngokwaneleyo ukutshabalalisa iiplanethi ezinobungakanani boMhlaba zifuna ii-nukes ezintsha, ezinokuthi, phakathi kwezinye iingozi, zivuse ugqatso lwezixhobo zehlabathi kwixesha elizayo. NgoNovemba, iOfisi yeBhajethi yeCongressional (CBO) khululwe Ingxelo ebonisa ukuba iindleko ezinokubakho zokutshintsha yonke imilenze emithathu ye-nuclear triad yase-US (imijukujelwa ye-intercontinental ballistic, imijukujelwa yangaphantsi kolwandle, kunye neziqhushumbisi ezinobuchule) kwisithuba seminyaka engama-30 iya kufikelela kubuncinci be-1.2 yezigidi zezigidi zeedola, kungabandakanywa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okanye Iindleko eziqhelekileyo, ezinokuthi zityhalele elo nani $ 1.7 zezigidi okanye ngaphaya.
Ukuphakamisa imibuzo malunga nesidingo sazo zonke ezi zixhobo zitsha kunye neendleko zazo ezimangalisayo ayinakubaluleka ngakumbi. Emva koko, into enye iqinisekisiwe: nasiphi na isigqibo sokufumana izixhobo ezinjalo, kwixesha elide, kuthetha ukunciphisa uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali kwenye indawo, nokuba kwimpilo, imfundo, iziseko zophuhliso, okanye ukulwa nobhubhane lwe-opioid.
Kwaye imibuzo yeendleko kunye nokusebenza zizinto ezincinci zengqungquthela entsha yenyukliya. Entliziyweni yayo yingcamango "yokusetyenziswa." Xa uMongameli u-Obama wayenyanzelisa ukuba izixhobo zenyukliya zingasetyenziswa kwindawo yedabi, wayengathethi nje kweli lizwe, kodwa kuzo zonke iintlanga. “Ukuphelisa ukucinga ngeMfazwe yoMthandazo,” watsho wathi ePrague ngo-Aprili 2009, "siya kunciphisa indima yezixhobo zenyukliya kwisicwangciso sethu sokhuseleko lwelizwe kwaye sikhuthaze abanye ukuba benze okufanayo."
Ukuba, nangona kunjalo, i-Trump White House yamkela imfundiso evala umgama phakathi kwezixhobo zenyukliya kunye neziqhelekileyo, iziguqule zibe zizixhobo ezisebenziseka ngakumbi zokunyanzeliswa kunye nemfazwe, iya kwenza ukuba amathuba okunyuka ekutshatyalalisweni kwe-thermonuclear kucingeleka ngakumbi. okokuqala kumashumi eminyaka. Akukho mathandabuzo, ngokomzekelo, ukuba isimo esinjalo sinokukhuthaza ezinye izizwe ezixhobe ngenyukliya, kuquka iRashiya, iTshayina, iIndiya, i-Israel, iPakistan, kunye noMntla Korea, ukuba zicwangcise ukusetyenziswa kwangaphambili kwezi zixhobo kungquzulwano oluzayo. Isenokude ikhuthaze amazwe angenazo izixhobo ngoku ukuba acinge ngokuzivelisa.
Ihlabathi elicingelwa nguMongameli Obama apho ii-nukes ziya kuba sisixhobo sokwenyani sokugqibela ngokuqinisekileyo yayiyeyona iqinisekisa ngakumbi. Umbono wakhe wawumele ikhefu elikhulu kwingcinga yeMfazwe ebandayo apho ukubakho kwembubhiso ye-thermonuclear phakathi kwamagunya amakhulu amabini eplanethi kubonakala ngathi yinto ehlala ikhona kwaye izigidi zabantu zasabela ngokubandakanyeka kwiintshukumo zoqhanqalazo.
Ngaphandle kwesoyikiso seArmagedon yemihla ngemihla, inkxalabo malunga nee-nukes ziye zavela kwaye uqhanqalazo lwaphela. Ngelishwa, izixhobo kunye iinkampani owabakhayo akazange. Ngoku, njengokuba indawo ebonakala ingenasoyikiso yexesha lasemva kwenyukliya isondela esiphelweni, ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya okunokwenzeka - ngokungenakucingeka nangexesha leMfazwe ebandayo - sele iza kwenziwa yesiqhelo. Okanye ubuncinane kuya kuba njalo ukuba, kwakhona, abemi besi sijikelezi-langa abahambi ezitratweni beqhankqalazela ikamva apho izixeko zinokuba ngamabhodlo aqhumayo ngoxa izigidi zabantu zibulawa yindlala nokugula ngemitha.
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UMichael T. Klare, a TomDispatch rhoqo, uprofesa woxolo kunye novavanyo lwezokhuseleko lwehlabathi kwiKholeji yaseHalkshire kunye nomlobi weencwadi ze-14 eziquka, ngoku kutshanje, Uhlanga lwezinto ezisekhohlo. Ngoku ugqibezela umsebenzi kwi-All Hell Breaking Loose, incwadi egxile kutshintsho lwemozulu kunye nokhuseleko lwelizwe laseMelika.
