NguAlice Slater, NgaseNkululekweni, UJanuwari 15, 2025
I-Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, ngengcebiso ka-Albert Einstein kunye nezinye izazinzulu ezivela kwiProjekthi yaseManhattan eyaphuhlisa ibhombu yeathom, yaseka iClock yeDoomsday, ngo-1947, ukubonisa ingozi etshabalalisayo umhlaba ojongene nayo ukususela ekudalweni kwebhombu yenyukliya. . Ngelo xesha, iwotshi yayibekwe kwimizuzu yesi-7 ukuya ezinzulwini zobusuku, uqikelelo lwabo lokuba lingakanani ixesha esasisele ngaphambi kwemfazwe yenyukliya eyayiza kwenza umonakalo omkhulu kwisijikelezi-langa sethu nakuzo zonke izinto eziphilayo ezikhoyo.
Ukutyhubela iminyaka, izandla zewotshi ziye zahlengahlengiswa, phambili nangasemva, njengoko izazinzulu kunye nabaqulunqi bemigaqo-nkqubo baqikelela ukuba ingozi yenyukliya yakhawuleza kangakanani na, ngokusekelwe kwiingozi ajamelene nazo amanye amazwe ekufumaneni izixhobo zenyukliya kwakunye neendlela ezintsha zokulawula izixhobo, izixhobo. Unyino, kunye nezivumelwano, ngakumbi phakathi kwe-US neRussia kumanyathelo okunciphisa izixhobo. Elona themba liphezulu, izandla zeDoomsday zasiwa kwimizuzu eli-17 ukuya ezinzulwini zobusuku ngo-1991 xa i-US kunye ne-USSR zabhengeza ukuyekiswa ngokupheleleyo kovavanyo lwenyukliya.
Okothusayo kukuba, nangona iminyaka yamanyathelo olawulo lwezixhobo zenyukliya, okukhokelela kwizixhobo zomkhosi ezantsi ukusuka phezulu kwiibhombu ezingama-70,000 kwincopho yokuphambana kwenyukliya yehlabathi, ukuya malunga ne-12,000 namhlanje, i-11,000 yayo e-US naseRussia phantse i-4,000 imile kwaye ilungele ukwenza. hamba, kunye nenye i-1000 ebanjwe ngamanye amazwe amathandathu ezixhobo zenyukliya-UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea- iwotshi ayizange ibekwe kufutshane neDoomsday kunanamhlanje—Ngemizuzwana engama-90 ukuya ezinzulwini zobusuku!1
Lixesha lokuguqula iwotshi kwaye utshintshe incoko! Izilumkiso ezimbi malunga noMhla weDooms azenzenga nto ingako ukunyusa ukhuseleko lwehlabathi kule minyaka ingama-77. Lixesha lokuba sithethe ngamathuba amaninzi kunye namathuba alahlekileyo okudala ukukhanya okutsha koSuku loXolo, ukutshintsha iwotshi yentshabalalo ibe yiwotshi enokuthi iphawule izisombululo ezininzi ebezingahoywa kwaye zingakhathalelwa. Kufuneka siyeke ukunika intsikelelo kunye nemvume yethu. ukuya kumanyathelo angapheliyo “okulawula” iingalo ezikhokelela kwingozi engakumbi njengoko kuboniswa yiwotshi eyalupheleyo yeDoomsday.
Endaweni yoko, kufuneka sifune ukuba zipheliswe, njengoko sisiya kwihlabathi elingenanyukliya elinoxolo elingakhathazwa yimbubhiso eyintlekele. Inene, abaphengululi ababhala ibali elilusizi lothethathethwano olungenasiphelo lokulawula izixhobo kodwa bangaze balubhangise baye baqulunqa igama elitsha lamanyathelo angenantsingiselo ukuya naphi na--anti-preneurism-apho endaweni yokuba i-US iphakamise ukupheliswa, okanye ukuthotywa kwezixhobo ngokupheleleyo kunye nokupheleleyo, okanye ukupheliswa kwezixhobo, ihlala iphakamisa amanyathelo amatsha angenantsingiselo ukuya kwinkqubela-phambili yobuqhetseba!2
Ukuqala incoko entsha yokupheliswa, kufuneka sivume amathuba esiwaphosileyo kunye nezithembiso ezaphukileyo ukusukela ekuqaleni kwexesha lenyukliya. Kwasekuqaleni, ngo-1945, uStalin wacela uTruman ukuba abeke ibhombu yenyukliya phantsi kolawulo lwamazwe ngamazwe kwiZizwe eziManyeneyo ezisanda kusekwa. I-US yakhaba isiphakamiso saseRashiya kwaye iRashiya yafumana ibhombu!3
Xa udonga lwehla eJamani kwaye i-Gorbachev yachitha iSivumelwano saseWarsaw kwaye yakhulula yonke indawo yaseMpuma Yurophu, wacebisa uReagan ukuba i-US neRashiya ziphelise zonke izixhobo zethu zenyukliya, ngaphandle kokuba i-US iya kuphelisa inkqubo yayo ye "Star Wars" yokulawula kunye. lawula ukusetyenziswa kwendawo yasemkhosini. UReagan wamlahla kwaye uGorbachev wasirhoxisa isithembiso saseRussia.4
UGorbachev, enexhala malunga nekamva leMpuma Jamani, wabongoza uReagan ukuba angayithathi iJamani edibeneyo kwiNATO. AmaRashiya alahlekelwa ngabantu abazizigidi ezingama-27 kuhlaselo lwamaNazi lweMfazwe Yehlabathi II! I-US yamqinisekisa ukuba i-NATO ayizukwandisa "i-intshi enye ukuya empuma."5
Ngaphandle kwesicelo esiphindaphindiweyo kwi-US evela kuMongameli waseRashiya u-Putin ukuba ahloniphe ezo zithembiso zase-US ezenziwe e-Gorbachev kwaye kwakhona e-Yeltsin, e-US, eqhutywa yimibono yoBukhosi ngokuthe ngcembe yandisa iNato ngasempuma. Yaqala ngokwandiswa kukaClinton kwiNATO ukuya ePoland, eHungary, naseCzech Republic ngo-1999, yalandelwa yiBulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia neSlovenia ngo-2004, kunye neAlbania, Croatia, Montenegro kunye noMntla Macedonia phakathi ko-2009 kunye no-2017.6. Kwaye ngexesha lemfazwe yaseUkraine, iSweden neFinland zajoyina i-NATO.
I-US imisa izixhobo zenyukliya kwiindawo ezi-5: eJamani, eNetherlands, eItali, eBelgium naseTurkey. IRashiya, ngexesha lemfazwe yaseUkraine, yabeka izixhobo zenyukliya eBelarus.
UClinton ukhokele i-NATO ekuqhunyisweni kwebhombu e-Kosovo ngo-1999, egqitha i-veto yaseRashiya kwiBhunga lezoKhuseleko, ephula isivumelwano se-UN esisayine ukuba singaze senze imfazwe yobundlobongela kwelinye ilizwe ngaphandle kokuba phantsi kwesoyikiso sokuhlaselwa;
UClinton wala unikezelo lukaPutin lokuba ngamnye anqumle izixhobo zethu ezinkulu zenyukliya kwiibhombu ezili-1000 nganye kwaye abize bonke abanye etafileni ukuze baxoxisane ngokupheliswa kwabo, ngaphandle kokuba siyekile ukuphuhlisa iziza zemijukujelwa eRomania;
UBush waphuma kwi-1972 ye-Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty kwi-2002 kwaye u-Obama wabeka isiseko esitsha se-missile e-Romania ngelixa i-Trump yakha enye ePoland;
U-Obama wenze isibhambathiso esingaphezulu kwetriliyoni enye yeedola kwiminyaka engama-30 ezayo kwiifektri ezimbini zebhombu yenyukliya, imijukujelwa, iinqanawa ezintywila emanzini, iinqwelomoya kunye neentloko zemfazwe eziye zanyuswa nangakumbi nguTrump noBiden.7
Ngaphandle kwezicelo eziphindaphindiweyo ezivela eRashiya naseChina ukuxoxisana nezivumelwano zokuvala izixhobo kwindawo kunye ne-cyberwar kwizigqibo ze-UN kunye neeforamu zokuxoxisana, i-US iyala ukusebenzisana.8
Sikwinqanaba lokuguquka kwembali. Lixesha lokuba utshintshe incoko ngeziphakamiso ezitsha ezinesibindi. Iziphakamiso eziqinisekisiweyo ukuba zisizisele ukuphumla kwintlupheko ekhulayo. Izindululo eziza kuzisa utshintsho kwingqondo yeplanethi esivumela ukuba siphendule ngokubambisana kwintlekele yemozulu yentlekele ezayo phantsi kwendlela! Izindululo eziya kuthi zingenise isifingo kwaye zitshintshe iWotshi yeDoomsday ibe yiwotshi entsha yoSuku loXolo. Umama woMhlaba uphelelwa ngumonde kubudenge boluntu.
Nalu uluhlu lwamanyathelo anokuthi akhokelela kuxolo emhlabeni ukuba i-US ilungele ukuhlanganisana ngokuchasene noko kuchazwe njenge-MICIMATT (i-Military, i-Industrial, i-Congressional, i-Intelligence, iMedia, i-Academic Think Tank complex) kunye nomsebenzi uxolo.
- Thatha izindululo eziphindaphindiweyo zaseRashiya naseTshayina kwizivumelwano zokuvala izixhobo kwindawo kunye ne-cyberwar
- Buyisela iSivumelwano seMisile ye-Anti-Ballistic ye-1972 kunye neRashiya kwaye ususe imijukujelwa yase-US esuka eRomania nasePoland
- Susa izixhobo zenyukliya zase-US kumazwe amahlanu e-NATO kwisivumelwano sokuba iRussia isuse izixhobo zayo zenyukliya ezisanda kubekwa eBelarus
- Thatha zonke izixhobo zenyukliya ziphapheme kwaye zahlule iimfazwe kwiinkqubo zazo zokuhambisa njengoko iTshayina isenza- ubulumko baseMpuma.
- Khubaza i-NATO kwaye uhloniphe kwaye uhloniphe iZizwe eziManyeneyo
Akukho mathandabuzo amancinci okuba iRussia neTshayina ziya kuba ngamaqabane azimiseleyo kula manyathelo. Baye babacebisa e-United States kwaye babavotela kwi-UN iminyaka engaphezu kweshumi.
1 https://fas.org/initiative/status-world-nuclear-forces/
2 https://www.academia.edu/77004279/Resistance_to_the_emergent_norm_to_advance_progress_towards_the_complete_elimination_of_nuclear_weapons?email_work_card=thumbnail
3 https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/soviet-union-and-baruch-plan/
4 https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/history/reagan-and-gorbachev-reykjavik-summit/
5 https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early/
6 https://ndisc.nd.edu/news-media/news/the-addition-of-nato-members-over-time-1949-2023/
7 https://fpif.org/president-obamas-twisted-nuclear-weapons-legacy/#!
8 https://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/disarmament-fora/cd/2014/cd-reports/8908-russia-and-china-table-new-draft-treaty-to-prevent-weapons-in-space
