I-US iphinda isebenze kwakhona kubuxoki bayo obukhulu malunga ne-Iraq ukuya kwi-Iran

NguNicolas JS Davies, uJanuwari 30, 2020

Kwiminyaka elishumi elinesithandathu emva kokuhlaselwa kwe-Iraq e-Iraq, uninzi lwabemi baseMelika bayaqonda ukuba yayiyimfazwe engekho mthethweni esekelwe kubuxoki malunga nokungabikho “kwezixhobo zentshabalalo.” Kodwa urhulumente wethu ngoku usoyikisa ngokusirhuqa ukuba siye emfazweni ne-Iran phantse ngendlela efanayo. "Ubuxoki obukhulu" malunga nenkqubo yezixhobo zenyukliyo ezingekhoyo, esekwe kubukrelekrele bepolitiki kumaqela e-CIA afaka i-web ubuxoki ukuzithethelela ngokuhlasela kwe-US nge-Iraq ngo-2003. 

Ngo-2002-3, amagosa ase-US kunye namajelo eendaba eendaba aphinda phinda-phinda ukuba i-Iraq yayinezixhobo ezonakalisayo ezazisongela umhlaba. I-CIA ivelise i-reams yobukrelekrele bobuxoki ukuxhasa umatshi ukuya emfazweni, kwaye i-cherry-ikhethe ezona ndaba zibambekayo ezikhohlisayo zika-Nobhala welizwe. UColin Powell ukunikezela kwiBhunga lezoKhuseleko le-UN ngoFebruwari 5th 2003. NgoDisemba 2002, uAlan Foley, intloko ye-CIA's Weapons Intelligence, Nonproliferation and Arms Control Centre (WINPAC), uxelele abasebenzi bakhe, "Ukuba umongameli ufuna ukuya emfazweni, umsebenzi wethu kukufumana ubukrelekrele bokumvumela ukuba enze njalo."

UPaul Pillar, igosa le-CIA eliliGosa leSizwe lezoBuntlola kwi-Near East nase Mzantsi Asia, wanceda ukulungiselela uxwebhu olunamaphepha angama-25 olwagqithiselwa aMalungu eCongress "njengesishwankathelo" soQikelelo lweNtlola yeSizwe (NIE) Irakh. Kodwa olu xwebhu lwalubhalwe kwiinyanga ngaphambi kokuba i-NIE ibanga ukuba ishwankathele kwaye iqulethe amabango amnandi awayengafumaneki kwi-NIE, njengokuthi i-CIA yayisazi iindawo ezithile ezingama-550 e-Iraq apho kugcinwe khona izixhobo zemichiza nezixhobo zebhayoloji. Uninzi lwaMalungu lufunda kuphela esi sishwankathelo sobuxoki, hayi i-NIE yokwenyani, kwaye bavote ngokungaboniyo emfazweni. Njengoko Intsika kamva yavuma kwii-PBS's Ngaphambili, "Injongo yayikukuqinisa ityala lokuya emfazweni kunye noluntu lwaseMelika. Ngaba kufanelekile ukuba uluntu lwengqondi lupapashe amaphepha ale njongo? Andicingi njalo, kwaye ndiyazisola ngokuba ndiye ndaba nendima kuyo. ”

I-WINPAC yasekwa ngo-2001 ukuze ithathe indawo ye-CIA's Nonproliferation Centre okanye i-NPC (1991-2001), apho abasebenzi abahlalutyi bekhulu le-CIA baqokelela ubungqina obunokubakho benyukliya, imichiza kunye nophuhliso lwezixhobo zebhayoloji ukuxhasa ulwazi lwemfazwe yase-US, isohlwayo kunye notshintsho lolawulo imigaqo-nkqubo echasene ne-Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Libya kunye nezinye iintshaba zase-US.

I-WINPAC isebenzisa isathelayithi yase-US, ukubekwa kweliso kwi-elektroniki kunye nenethiwekhi yamazwe aphesheya yokuhlola ukuvelisa izinto zokondla iiarhente ze-UN ezinje nge-UNSCOM, i-UNMOVIC, uMbutho woThintelo lwezixhobo zeKhemikhali (i-OPCW) kunye ne-Arhente yaMandla eAtomic yaMazwe ngaMazwe. Ukongamela ukungasasazeki kwezixhobo zenyukliya, imichiza kunye nezixhobo zebhayoloji. Imathiriyeli ye-CIA igcine abahloli nabahlalutyi be-arhente bexakekile yimithombo engapheliyo yamaxwebhu, imifanekiso yesathelayithi kunye namabango ngabaphambukeli phantse iminyaka engama-30. Ukusukela oko i-Iraq yazitshabalalisa zonke izixhobo zayo ezazingavunyelwanga ngo-1991, abafumananga bungqina bokuba i-Iraq okanye i-Iran ithathe amanyathelo okufumana izixhobo zenyukliya, ezekhemikhali okanye zebhayoloji.

I-UNMOVIC kunye ne-IAEA zaxelela iBhunga lezoKhuseleko le-UN ngo-2002 ukuya ku-3 ukuba abanakufumana bungqina buxhasa izityholo zokuphuhliswa kwezixhobo ezingekho mthethweni e-Iraq. UMlawuli-Jikelele we-IAEA u-Mohamed ElBaradei wazityhila ii-CIA's I-Niger yellowcake uxwebhu njengombumbulu kumcimbi weeyure. Ukuzibophelela kuka-ElBaradei kwinkululeko nokungakhethi cala kwe-arhente yakhe kuphumelele intlonipho yelizwe, kwaye yena kunye ne-arhente yakhe bawongwa ngokudibeneyo INdel Peace Prize kwi 2005.    

Ngaphandle kokuqanjwa ngokuthe ngqo kunye nobungqina obenziwe ngabom obuvela kumaqela aselubhacweni afana no Ahmad Chalabi I-Iraqi National Congress (INC) kunye neIran I-Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK), uninzi lwezinto i-CIA kunye namahlakani ayo abonelele ngayo kwiiarhente ze-UN ibandakanyeka ekusetyenzisweni kwetekhnoloji, enokusetyenziswa kwiinkqubo zezixhobo ezingavunyelwanga kodwa ikwanokusetyenziswa okusemthethweni. Umsebenzi omninzi womsebenzi we-IAEA eIran ibikukuqinisekisa ukuba nganye yezi zinto isetyenziselwe iinjongo zoxolo okanye ukuphuculwa kwezixhobo eziqhelekileyo endaweni yenkqubo yezixhobo zenyukliya. Kodwa njengakwi-Iraq, ukuqokelelwa kobungqina obungenakuphikiswa, obungenabungqina benkqubo yezixhobo zenyukliya ezinokuthi zisebenze njengesixhobo esibalulekileyo sezopolitiko ukweyisela amajelo eendaba kunye noluntu ukuba kufuneka kubekho into eqinileyo emva komsi kunye nezipili.    

Umzekelo, ngo-1990, i I-CIA yaqala ukwala Imiyalezo yeTelex evela kwiDyunivesithi yaseSharif eTehran nakwiziko loPhando lweFizikiki malunga ne-odolo yeemagnethi zeringi, izixhobo zokuphatha i-fluoride kunye nezixhobo zokuphatha i-fluoride, umatshini wokulinganisa, umatshini wokubonisa ubunzima kunye nezixhobo zokucoca, zonke ezinokusetyenziselwa ukutyebisa i-uranium. Kule minyaka ili-17 izayo, i-CIA's NPC kunye ne-WINPAC bazithathela ingqalelo ezi Telexes njengobunye bobungqina obunamandla benkqubo yezixhobo zenyukliya efihlakeleyo e-Iran, kwaye bachazwa njalo ngamagosa aphezulu ase-US. Kwakungekho kude kube ngu-2007-8 ukuba urhulumente wase-Iranian ekugqibeleni wazikhangela zonke ezi zinto kwiYunivesithi yaseSharif, kwaye abahloli be-IAEA bakwazi tyelela eyunivesithi kwaye baqinisekise ukuba bayasetyenziselwa kuphando kunye nokufundisa, njengoko i-Iran yayibaxelele.

Emva kohlaselo lwase-Iraq e-Iraq ngo-2003, umsebenzi we-IAEA e-Iran uqhubekile, kodwa lonke ukhokelo olwabonelelwa yi-CIA kunye nabalingane bayo kwangqineka kuyinyani, kungenatyala okanye kungathandeki. Ngo-2007, ii-arhente zobuntlola zase-US zapapasha iNational Intelligence Estimate (NIE) e-Iran apho zavuma ukuba i-Iran ayinazo izixhobo zenyukliya. Upapasho lwe Ngo-2007 NIE yayilinyathelo elibalulekileyo ekuthinteleni imfazwe yase-US e-Iran. Njengoko uGeorge W Bush wabhala zakhe iimemori, "… Emva kwe-NIE, ndingachaza njani ndisebenzisa umkhosi ukutshabalalisa izixhobo zenyukliya zelizwe uluntu lwezobuntlola luthi alunazo izixhobo zenyukliya ezisebenzayo?"  

Kodwa ngaphandle kokungabikho kobungqina obuqinisekisayo, i-CIA yenqabile ukuguqula "uvavanyo" ukusuka kwii-NIE zayo zika-2001 kunye no-2005 zokuba i-Iran kungenzeka ukuba ibinayo inkqubo yezixhobo zenyukliya ngaphambi konyaka ka-2003. kunye nezohlwayo njengezixhobo ezinamandla zopolitiko kulawulo lwe-US lokutshintsha umgaqo kwi-Iran.

Ngo-2007, i-UNMOVIC yapapasha a Isihlomelo okanye ingxelo yokugqibela ngezifundo ezifundwe kwi-debacle e-Iraq. Esinye isifundo esingundoqo yayikukuba, "Ukuzimela ngokupheleleyo yinto efunekayo kwiarhente yokuhlola ye-UN," ukuze inkqubo yohlolo ingasetyenziswa, "nokuba kuxhaswe ezinye ii-ajenda okanye ukugcina iqela elihloliweyo likwisimo sobuthathaka esisigxina." Esinye isifundo esiphambili yayikukuba, "Ukungqina into engeyiyo yindlela yokunyamezela ubunzima kunye nokuhlolwa okungapheliyo."

2005 Ikhomishini yeRobb-Silberman ekusileleni kwezobuntlola e-US e-Iraq kwafikelela kwizigqibo ezifanayo, ezifana nezo, “… abahlalutyi bawususa ngokufanelekileyo umthwalo wobungqina, befuna ubungqina bokuba i-Iraq ayinazo iinkqubo ezisebenzayo ze-WMD endaweni yokufuna ubungqina obubungqina bokuba zikhona. Ngelixa imeko yomgaqo-nkqubo wase-US yayikukuba i-Iraq yayinoxanduva lokungqina ukuba ayizithintelanga iinkqubo zezixhobo, uxanduva loLuntu lwezoBukrelekrele kulindeleke ukuba lube nenjongo ethe kratya… Ngokuphakamisa umthwalo wobungqina phezulu kakhulu, abahlalutyi bayilahlekisile inkqubo yohlalutyo ukuya kungqinisiso. kwingcamango yabo yantlandlolo - ukuba i-Iraq yayineenkqubo ezisebenzayo ze-WMD. ”

Kumsebenzi wayo e-Iran, i-CIA iqhube uhlalutyo olungalunganga kunye neenkqubo ezichongwe yi-UNMOVIC Compendium kunye nengxelo yeRobb-Silberman malunga ne-Iraq. Uxinzelelo lokuvelisa ubuntlola bezopolitiko obuxhasa imigaqo-nkqubo yase-US iyaqhubeka kuba yiyo indima eyonakalisayo ukuba iiarhente zobukrelekrele zase-US zidlala kumgaqo-nkqubo wase-US, ukuhlola nakwabanye oorhulumente, Ukuqokelela, ukubeka ityala amazwe kwaye avelise ezopolitiko kunye nokuyila ubukrelekrele ukuyila iingalo zemfazwe. 

Iarhente yezobuntlola esemthethweni yesizwe iya kubonelela ngohlalutyo lweenjongo zobukrelekrele ezinokuthi zenziwe ngabenzi bemigaqo-nkqubo njengesiseko sezigqibo zomgaqo-nkqubo wobuchule. Kodwa, njengoko i-UNMOVIC Compendium isitsho, urhulumente wase-US akathembekanga ekusebenziseni gwenxa ingcinga yezobuntlola kunye negunya lamaziko amazwe afana ne-IAEA "ukuxhasa ezinye ii-ajenda," ngokukodwa umnqweno wakhe wotshintsho kulawulo kumazwe kwihlabathi liphela.

“Enye i-ajenda” yase-US e-Iran yafumana umanyano oluxabisekileyo xa u-Mohamed ElBaradei ethatha umhlala-phantsi kwi-IAEA ngo-2009, endaweni yakhe kwathatyathwa uYukiya Amano waseJapan. A Intambo yeCandelo likaRhulumente Ukusukela nge-10 kaJulayi ka-2009 ekhutshwe nguWikileaks uchaze uMnu Amano njenge "qabane elomeleleyo" e-US ngokusekwe "kwinqanaba eliphezulu lokuhlangana phakathi kwezinto eziphambili kunye ne-ajenda yethu kwi-IAEA." Imemo yacebisa ukuba i-US kufuneka izame "ukubumba ukucinga kuka-Amano ngaphambi kokuba i-ajenda yakhe ingqubane ne-IAEA Secretariat bureaucracy." Umbhali wememo yayinguGeoffrey Pyatt, owathi kamva wazuza ukuqaqamba kwilizwe liphela njenge-Ambass yaseMelika eUkraine eyatyhilwa kukuvuza ukurekhodwa komsindo Ukuceba iyelenqe lika-2014 e-Ukraine kunye noNobhala Wezomnxibelelanisi weLizwe u-Victoria Nuland.

Ulawulo luka-Obama luchithe ikota yalo yokuqala lusukela olungaphumeleli "Mbini-track" indlela yoku I-Iran, apho uthethathethwano lwayo lwasingelwa phantsi yeyona nto iphambili eyathi yalunika umkhondo wendlela efanayo yokunyuka kwezohlwayo ze-UN. Xa iBrazil neTurkey zathi thaca i-Iran ngesakhelo sesivumelwano senyukliya esacetyiswa yi-US, i-Iran yasivuma kwangoko. Kodwa i-US yakwala oko kwakuqalise njengesiphakamiso sase-US kuba, ngelo xesha, yayiya kuba iyasilela kwimizamo yayo yokunyanzela iBhunga lezoKhuseleko le-UN ukuba libeke isohlwayo esiqatha e-Iran. 

Njengoko igosa eliphezulu leSebe likaRhulumente lixelele umbhali uTrita Parsi, eyona ngxaki yayikukuba i-US ayizukuthatha impendulo ngo "Ewe". Kwakukwikota yesibini ka-Obama, emva kokuba uJohn Kerry ethathe indawo ka-Hillary Clinton njengo-Nobhala Wezwe, apho i-US ekugqibeleni yathatha u-Ewe impendulo, ekhokelela kwi-JCPOA phakathi kwe-Iran, i-US namanye amagunya amakhulu ngo-2015. yayingezozigwebo ezixhaswe yi-US ezizise i-Iran etafileni, kodwa ukusilela kwezohlwayo ezizise i-US etafileni.  

Kwakhona ngo-2015, i-IAEA iwugqibile umsebenzi wayo Imicimbi Ebalaseleyo ” malunga nezinto ezidlulileyo zenyukliya ezinxulumene nezinto zenyukliya. Kwimeko nganye yokusetyenziswa kabini kophando okanye iteknoloji yokungenisa ngaphakathi, i-IAEA ayifumananga bungqina bokuba zinxulumene nezixhobo zenyukliya kunokusetyenziswa komkhosi oqhelekileyo okanye ukusetyenziswa koluntu. Phantsi kobunkokheli buka-Amano kunye noxinzelelo lwase-US, i-IAEA "yavavanya" ukuba "uluhlu lwemisebenzi efanelekileyo kuphuhliso lwezixhobo zenyukliya zenziwa eIran ngaphambi kokuphela kuka-2003," kodwa oko "le misebenzi ayizange ihambele phambili izifundo kunye nokufunyanwa kobuchule obufanelekileyo kunye nobuchule. ”

I-JCPOA inenkxaso ebanzi eWashington. Kodwa ingxoxo yezopolitiko yase-US malunga ne-JCPOA khange ihoye ezona ziphumo zomsebenzi we-IAEA e-Iran, indima egqwethayo ye-CIA kuyo kunye nendlela i-CIA ephindaphinde ngayo ucalucalulo lweziko, ukuqiniswa kwemibono, ubuqhetseba, ezopolitiko kunye norhwaphilizo olwenziwa “zezinye ii-ajenda” ebekufanele ukuba zilungisiwe ukunqanda nakuphi na ukuphindwaphindwa kwe-WMD fiasco e-Iraq. 

Abezopolitiko abaxhasa i-JCPOA ngoku bathi bayeke i-Iran ukufumana izixhobo zenyukliya, ngelixa abo bachasene ne-JCPOA besithi izakuvumela i-Iran ukuba iyifumane. Zombini ziphosakele kuba, njengoko i-IAEA igqibile kwaye noMongameli Bush evumile, i-Iran ayinayo inkqubo yezixhobo zenyukliya. Eyona nto imbi kakhulu enokuthethwa yi-IAEA kukuba i-Iran isenokuba yenze uphando ngezixhobo ezisisiseko ezinxulumene nezixhobo zenyukliya ixesha elithile ngaphambi ko-2003-kodwa kwakhona, mhlawumbi ayenzanga.

U-Mohamed ElBaradei wabhala kwimemo yakhe, Ubudala beNkohliso: IDiplati yenyukleyitha kumaxesha obuqili, ukuba iIran ibikhe yaqhuba nophando ngezixhobo zenyukliya, yayiqinisekile ukuba yayilixesha lemfazwe ne-Iraq kuphela, eyaphela ngo-1988, xa i-US kunye nabalingane bayo wanceda Iraq ukubulala ukuya kuthi ga kwi-100,000 yama-Irani ngezixhobo zemichiza. Ukuba izityholo zika-ElBaradei zazichanekile, ingxaki ye-Iran ukusukela ngelo xesha ibinokuthi ayinakuvuma kulomsebenzi kwii-1980s ngaphandle kokujongana nokungathembani okukhulu nobutshaba obuvela e-US nakwimanyano yayo, kwaye babeke emngciphekweni ofanayo ne-Iraq. 

Ngaphandle kokungaqiniseki ngokubhekisele kwizenzo ze-Iran ngeminyaka yoo-1980, iphulo lase-US elichasene ne-Iran liye laphula umthetho izifundo ezizezona zibalulekileyo Amagosa ase-US kunye ne-UN athi afunde kwi-fiasco e-Iraq. I-CIA isebenzise izikrokro zayo ezingenasixhobo malunga nezixhobo zenyukliya eIran njengezizathu zokuba "zixhase ezinye ii-ajenda" kwaye "zigcine iqela elihloliweyo likwimeko esisigxina yokuba buthathaka," kanye njengokuba Ukugqitywa kwe-UNMOVIC yalumkisa malunga nokwenza kwakhona kwelinye ilizwe.

E-Iran njengase-Iraq, oku kukhokelele kulawulo olungekho mthethweni lwe izohlwayo ezibi, apho amawaka abantwana esweleka ngenxa yezifo ezinokuthintelwa kunye nokungondleki, nakwizisongelo zemfazwe engekho mthethweni yase-US eya kuthi igubungele uMbindi Mpuma kunye nehlabathi kwisiphithiphithi esikhulu nangakumbi kunaleyo i-CIA yenze ngokuchasene ne-Iraq.