Ukoyikiswa kweMfazwe ka-1983: Elona xesha liyingozi kakhulu kwiMfazwe yoMlo?

Lo Mgqibelo uphelileyo ibisisikhumbuzo seminyaka engama-77 yomhla wesi-6 kuAgasti, 1945 ukuqhushumba kwebhombu yeathom yaseHiroshima, ngoxa ngoLwesibini kwakusisikhumbuzo sokudubula kweNagasaki ngo-Agasti 9, kuboniswe apha. Kwihlabathi apho ukungavisisani phakathi kwamagunya amakhulu axhobe ngenyukliya kukwinqanaba eliphezulu, kunokubuzwa ngokunyanisekileyo enoba siya kufikelela kwindawo yama-78 ngaphandle kokuba kuphinde kusetyenziswe iibhombu zenyukliya. Kubalulekile ukuba sikhumbule izifundo zomnye wemfazwe yenyukliya esondeleleneyo xa, njenganamhlanje, unxibelelwano phakathi kwamagunya enyukliya lwaqhawuka.

NguPatrick Mazza, IRaven, Septemba 26, 2022

Umnxeba osondeleyo wenyukliya we-Able Archer '83

Ecaleni ndingazi

Elo yayilixesha lokruthakruthwano olwandayo phakathi kweUnited States neSoviet Union, xa amajelo onxibelelwano ayesonakala yaye icala ngalinye lalitolika ngendlela engeyiyo iintshukumisa zelinye. Kube nesiphumo sento enokuba yeyona ikufutshane nembubhiso yenyukliya kwiMfazwe Yomlomo. Okubi nangakumbi kukuba, elinye icala alizange liyiqonde ingozi de kube semva kwenyani.

Kwiveki yesibini kaNovemba ka-1983, i-NATO yaqhuba i-Able Archer, umthambo ofanisa ukunyuka kwimfazwe yenyukliya kungquzulwano lwaseYurophu phakathi kwentshona kunye neeSoviets. Ubunkokeli beSoviet, boyika ukuba i-US yayicwangcisa ugwayimbo lwenyukliya lokuqala kwiSoviet Union, kurhanelwa ngamandla ukuba uAble Archer wayengengomthambo, kodwa isigqubuthelo sento yokwenyani. Iinkalo ezintsha zale nkqubo zomeleza ukholo lwabo. Ibutho lenyukliya laseSoviet liye lalumkisa ngentloko yeenwele, kwaye iinkokeli zisenokuba zicinga ngogwayimbo lwangaphambili. Umkhosi wase-US, uyazi ngezenzo ezingaqhelekanga zeSoviet kodwa ungayazi intsingiselo yazo, waqhubeka nomsebenzi.

Ixesha lithathwa ziingcali ezininzi njengomzuzu weMfazwe ebandayo kunye nengozi enkulu yongquzulwano lwenyukliya ukusukela kwi-1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, xa i-US yajongana neSoviet malunga nokubekwa kwemijukujelwa yenyukliya kweso siqithi. Kodwa ngokwahlukileyo kwingxaki yaseCuba, i-US yayinoloyiko kwingozi. URobert Gates, owayesakuba ngusekela-mlawuli weCIA, kamva wathi, "Inokuba besisecicini lemfazwe yenyukliya kwaye singayazi nokuyazi."

Kuthathe iminyaka ukuba abasemagunyeni basentshona baqonde ngokupheleleyo ingozi ilizwe elijongene nayo kwi-Able Archer '83. Abazange baqonde ukuba iinkokeli zaseSoviet zoyika ngokwenene ugwayimbo lokuqala, kwaye zachitha imiqondiso evela kwakamsinya emva kokwenza umsebenzi njengepropaganda yaseSoviet. Kodwa njengoko umfanekiso usiya ucaca ngakumbi, uRonald Reagan waqaphela ukuba intetho yakhe evuthayo kwiminyaka emithathu yokuqala yolawulo lwakhe lomongameli wondla uloyiko lweSoviet, kwaye endaweni yoko waphumelela ukuthethathethana ngezivumelwano kunye neeSoviet zokunciphisa izixhobo zenyukliya.

Namhlanje ezo zivumelwano ziye zarhoxiswa okanye zixhasa ubomi, ngelixa iingxabano phakathi kwentshona kunye nelizwe elilandela iSoviet Union, iRussian Federation, zikwinqanaba elingenakuthelekiswa nanto nakwiMfazwe Yomlomo. Unxibelelwano luqhawukile kwaye iingozi zenyukliya ziya zisanda. Ngeli xesha, ukungavisisani kuyanda kunye neTshayina, elinye ilizwe elinezixhobo zenyukliya. Kwiintsuku emva kwe-77th yesikhumbuzo se-6 ka-Agasti, ibhombu ye-athomu ye-1945 yase-Hiroshima kunye ne-9 ka-Agasti yokukhutshwa kwe-Nagasaki, ihlabathi linezizathu ezivakalayo zokubuza ukuba siya kufikelela kwi-78th ngaphandle kokuba izixhobo zenyukliya zisetyenziswe kwakhona.

Ngexesha elinjalo, kubalulekile ukukhumbula izifundo zika-Able Archer '83, malunga nokwenzekayo xa ukungavisisani phakathi kwamagunya amakhulu kukhula ngelixa unxibelelwano luphela. Ngethamsanqa, kwiminyaka yakutshanje kuye kwapapashwa iincwadi ezininzi eziphanda nzulu kule ngxaki, into ekhokelele kuyo, kunye neziphumo zayo. Ngowe-1983: iReagan, iAndropov, kunye neHlabathi liseBrink, nguTaylor Downing, kunye I-Brink: uMongameli uReagan kunye neMfazwe yeNyukliya ye-1983 nguMark Ambinder, xelela ibali ukusuka kwii-engile ezahlukeneyo. I-Able Archer 83: Umthambo we-NATO oMfihlo ophantse wabangela iMfazwe yeNyukliya nguNate Jones yingxelo ehlangeneyo ngakumbi yentsomi ehamba nomthombo wemathiriyeli yoqobo ethathwe koovimba bemfihlo.

I-advanteji yogwayimbo lokuqala

UViktor Surikov, igqala kwisakhiwo sokwakha imijukujelwa yaseSoviet, kamva waxelela udliwanondlebe neSebe lezoKhuselo lase-US uJohn Hines, ukuba ngenxa yolu lwazi, iiSoviets zitshintshele ekubeni zicwangcise ugwayimbo. Ukuba babecinga ukuba i-US yayilungiselela ukusungula, ngeba baqalise kuqala. Ngapha koko, balinganisa ulungiselelo olunjalo kuqheliselo lweZapad 1983.

U-Ambinder ubhala athi, “Njengoko ugqatso lwezixhobo lwalukhula ngokukhawuleza, izicwangciso zemfazwe zaseSoviet zavela. Abazange balindele ukuphendula kwisiteleka sokuqala esivela e-US Endaweni yoko, zonke izicwangciso zeemfazwe ezinkulu zazicinga ukuba iiSoviets ziya kufumana indlela yokubetha kuqala, kuba, ngokulula, icala elihlasele kuqala liya kuba nethuba elihle lokuphumelela. .”

AmaSoviet akholelwa ukuba i-US nayo yayinayo. USurikov wathi wayekholelwa ukuba abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo wenyukliya base-US babesazi kakuhle ukuba kukho umahluko omkhulu kumanqanaba omonakalo e-United States phantsi kweemeko apho iUnited States yaphumelela ekubetheni imijukujelwa yeSoviet kunye neenkqubo zokulawula ngaphambi kokuba iqalise . . , “ ubhala uJones. Hines wavuma “ukuba iUnited States ‘ngokuqinisekileyo yenze uhlolisiso olunjalo’ kugwayimbo lokuqala olwandulela iSoviet Union.”

I-US eneneni yayiphumeza iinkqubo "zokwazisa ngesilumkiso" xa uhlaselo lubonwa njengolusondele. Ukuqhuba izicwangciso zenyukliya yayiluloyiko olubonakalayo phakathi kweenkokeli kumacala omabini ukuba ziya kuba zizokuqala ekujoliswe kuzo kuhlaselo lwenyukliya.

“ . . . njengoko iMfazwe yoMlomo yayiqhubela phambili, omabini amagunya amakhulu azibona esengozini yoqhankqalazo lwenyukliya,” ubhala watsho uJones. Elinye icala liza kuzama ukuphumelela imfazwe yenyukliya ngokususa ubunkokeli phambi kokuba likhuphe imiyalelo yokuziphindezela. “Ukuba iUnited States inokuphelisa ubunkokeli ekuqaleni kwemfazwe, inokumisela imiqathango yokupheliswa kwayo . . ,” ubhala watsho uAmbinder. Xa iinkokeli zaseRussia ngaphambi kwemfazwe yangoku zabhengeza ubulungu be-Ukraine ye-NATO "umgca obomvu" ngenxa yokuba imijukujelwa ebekwe apho ingabetha iMoscow ngemizuzu embalwa, yayiyinto yokuphinda yoyike.

I-Ambinder yenza eyona nto ineenkcukacha zokuntywila kwindlela omabini la macala ahlangabezana ngayo noloyiko lokunqunyulwa kwentloko kwaye acetywe ukukhusela amandla okuziphindezela. I-US yayisiya ixhalaba kukuba iinqanawa ezintywilayo zaseSoviet zazingasabonakali kwaye zinokubamba umjukujelwa ukusuka elunxwemeni ukuba ubethe iWashington, DC malunga nemizuzu emithandathu. UJimmy Carter, eyazi kakuhle le meko, wayalela ukuba kuphononongwe kwakhona kwaye wabeka inkqubo yokuqinisekisa ukuba umntu oza kungena ezihlangwini zakhe uya kukwazi ukuyalela impindezelo kwaye alwe nasemva kokuba i-White House yakhe yabethwa.

Uloyiko lwaseSoviet luyanda

"IiSoviets zazikholelwa ukuba iiPerhing II zinokufika eMoscow," ubhala uAmbinder, nangona oku kwakungenjalo. “Oko kwakuthetha ukuba ubunkokeli beSoviet bunokuba kude nemizuzu emihlanu ukusuka ekuthotyweni nangawuphi na umzuzu xa sele bethunyelwe. UBrezhnev, phakathi kwabanye, wakuqonda oku emathunjini akhe.

Kwintetho yakhe enkulu kwiinkokeli zeWarsaw Pact ngowe-1983, uYuri Andropov, owangena ezihlangwini zikaBrezhnev emva kokusweleka kwakhe ngowe-1982, wayibiza loo mijukujelwa ngokuthi “'ngumjikelo omtsha kugqatso lwezixhobo' owawahluke kakhulu kunewangaphambili,” ubhala watsho uDowning. "Kwakucacile kuye le mijukujelwa yayingeyonto 'yokunqanda' kodwa 'yenzelwe imfazwe yexesha elizayo,' kwaye yenzelwe ukunika i-US amandla okuthatha ubunkokeli beSoviet 'kwimfazwe yenyukliya elinganiselweyo' eyayikholelwa yiMelika. ‘ziya kusinda zize ziphumelele kungquzulwano lwenyukliya oluthatha ixesha elide.’”

UAndropov, phakathi kweenkokeli eziphezulu zaseSoviet, nguye owayekholelwa ngokunyanisekileyo ukuba i-US yayifuna imfazwe. Kwintetho eyimfihlo ngoMeyi ka-1981, xa wayeseyinkosi ye-KGB, wamgxeka uReagan kwaye "kothuka uninzi lwababekhona, wathi kukho ithuba elinamandla logwayimbo lwenyukliya lwe-US," ubhala u-Downing. UBrezhnev wayengomnye wabo babekweli gumbi.

Kulapho iKGB kunye nogxa wayo emkhosini, iGRU, baphumeza inzame yezobuntlola yehlabathi ephambili ukujongisa kwangethuba imiqondiso yokuba i-US nentshona bezilungiselela imfazwe. Eyaziwa ngokuba yi-RYAN, isifinyezo saseRashiya sogwayimbo lwezixhobo zenyukliya, lubandakanya amakhulukhulu ezalathisi, yonke into ukusuka kwintshukumo kwiziseko zomkhosi, ukuya kwiindawo zobunkokeli besizwe, ukuya kwiidrive zegazi nokuba i-US ibihambisa iikopi zokuqala zeSibhengezo seNkululeko kwaye Umgaqo-siseko. Nangona iintlola zazinamathandabuzo, inkuthazo yokuvelisa iingxelo ezazifunwa bubunkokeli yavelisa ucalucalulo oluthile, oluzama ukomeleza uloyiko lweenkokeli.

Ekugqibeleni, imiyalezo ye-RYAN eyathunyelwa kwisikhululo sozakuzo se-KGB eLondon ngexesha le-Able Archer '83, ekhutshwe yi-arhente ephindwe kabini, iya kubonisa kwiinkokeli zasentshona ezithandabuzayo ukuba iiSoviets zazisoyika kangakanani ngelo xesha. Loo nxalenye yebali iza kuza.

UReagan unyusa ubushushu

I-rhetoric kaReagan ibonisa ukujika kwi-détente esele iqalile phantsi koLawulo lweCarter ngohlaselo lwaseSoviet e-Afghanistan. Kwinkomfa yakhe yokuqala noonondaba, wathi “i-détente ibiyindlela enye esetyenziswa yiSoviet Union ukuphumeza iinjongo zayo . . . "Wayethetha ukuba akunakwenzeka ukuhlalisana," ubhala uJones. Kamva, ethetha nePalamente yaseBritani ngowe-1982, uReagan wahlaba ikhwelo “lomngcelele wenkululeko nowedemokhrasi owawuza kushiya ubuMarx nobuLenin kwimfumba yembali . . . “

Noko ke, akukho ntetho ibonakala inempembelelo enkulu kwingcamango yeSoviet ngaphezu kwaleyo wayithethayo ngoMatshi 1983. Iphulo lokumisa izixhobo zenyukliya liye lakhuthaza izigidi ukuba zinyanzelise ukuba kumiswe izixhobo ezitsha zenyukliya. UReagan wayekhangela iindawo zokuchasa oko, kwaye enye yazinikela ngohlobo lwendibano yonyaka yeNational Association of Evangelicals. Le ntetho ayizange ihlolwe liSebe likaRhulumente, elathi ngaphambili layithomalalisa intetho kaReagan. Le yayiyintsimbi egcweleyo uRonald.

Ekuqwalaseleni umkhenkce wenyukliya, uReagan uxelele iqela, abakhuphisana nabo kwiMfazwe yeCold abanakujongwa ngokulinganayo ngokuziphatha. Ubani wayengenakuyityeshela “impembelelo endlongondlongo yobukhosi obungendawo . . . uze ngaloo ndlela uzikhwebule kumlo phakathi kokulungileyo nokubi nokulungileyo nokubi.” Wayikhulula kumbhalo wokuqala, ebiza iSoviet Union ngokuthi "injongo yobubi kwihlabathi lanamhlanje." UAmbinder unikela ingxelo yokuba uNancy Reagan kamva “wakhalazela umyeni wakhe ukuba uye wagabadela. 'Babubukumkani obungendawo,' waphendula uReagan. “Lixesha lokuyivala.”

Imigaqo-nkqubo neentetho zikaReagan “zaboyikisa iinkokeli zethu,” ucaphula uJones uOleg Kalugin, intloko yemisebenzi yeKGB yaseUnited States de kwangowe-1980.

Iimpawu ezixubeneyo

UReagan wayekholelwa ukuba unokufumana kuphela ukuncitshiswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya ngokuzakha kuqala, ngoko ke kwanqunyanyiswa idiplomacy eninzi kwiminyaka emibini yokuqala yolawulo lwakhe. Ngowe-1983, waziva ekulungele ukubandakanyeka. NgoJanuwari, wenza isindululo sokuphelisa zonke izixhobo zoluhlu oluphakathi, nangona iiSoviets zaqale zalandula, zicinga ukuba zazisoyikiswa ziinukes zaseFransi naseBritane. Ke ngoFebruwari 15 waba nentlanganiso ye-White House kunye noNozakuzaku weSoviet uAnatoly Dobrynin.

“Umongameli wathi wayemangalisiwe kukuba iiSoviet Union zazicinga ukuba 'ungumxhasi ophambeneyo.' 'Kodwa andifuni mfazwe phakathi kwethu. Oko bekuya kuzisa iintlekele ezininzi,’” ubalisa uAmbinder. UDobrynin uphendule ngeemvakalelo ezifanayo, kodwa wabiza ukwakhiwa komkhosi kaReagan, olona likhulu kwimbali yase-US ngexesha loxolo ukuza kuthi ga ngelo xesha, “njengesisongelo sokwenyani kukhuseleko lwelizwe lethu.” Kwiinkumbulo zakhe, uDobrynin wavuma ukubhideka kweSoviet “ngokuhlasela okuqatha kukaReagan esidlangalaleni kwiSoviet Union” ngoxa “ethumela ngokufihlakeleyo . . . imiqondiso efuna ubudlelwane obuqhelekileyo. "

Omnye umqondiso weza ngokucacileyo kwiiSoviets, ubuncinane ekutolikeni kwazo. Kwiiveki ezimbini emva kwentetho "yobukhosi obubi", uReagan ucebise "i-Star Wars" yokukhusela imijukujelwa. Ngokwembono kaReagan, yayilinyathelo elalinokuvula indlela yokupheliswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya. Kodwa emehlweni eSoviet, kwakukhangeleka ngathi linyathelo elinye elingakumbi lokuya kugwayimbo lokuqala kunye nemfazwe yenyukliya “enokuphumelela”.

"Ngokubonakala ngathi i-US ingasungula ugwayimbo lokuqala ngaphandle koloyiko lokuziphindezela, uReagan wenze elona phupha libi laseKremlin," ubhala watsho uDowning. "U-Andropov wayeqinisekile ukuba eli nyathelo lamva nje lisondeza imfazwe yenyukliya. Kwaye yayiyi-United States eyayiza kuyiqala. ”