By Erica Chenoweth kunye noHakim Young for Denver Dialogues
ipapashwe kuqala ngupolitikoviolenceataglance ( Ubundlobongela bezoPolitiko@a Glance)
EBrussels, abantu abangaphezu kwe-1,200 baqhankqalaza ngokuchasene nokungafuni kweYurophu ukwenza okungakumbi malunga nengxaki yeembacu kwiMeditera, ngo-Aprili 23, 2015. Amnesty International.
Namhlanje, umntu omnye kwabangama-122 abaphila emhlabeni yimbacu, umphambukeli, okanye umntu ofuna indawo yokusabela. Ngo-2014, iingxwabangxwaba nentshutshiso zanyanzelela intlekele 42,500 abantu ngosuku lokushiya amakhaya abo baye kufuna ukhuseleko kwenye indawo, okukhokelela ekubeni I-59.5 yezigidi zeembacu zizonke kwihlabathi jikelele. Ngokwengxelo ye-UN yeembacu ye-2014 Global Trends (isihloko sithi Yehlabathi kwiMfazwe), amazwe asakhasayo amkela i-86% yezi mbacu. Amazwe aphuhlileyo, anje nge-US kunye nalawo aseYurophu, amkela kuphela i-14% yesabelo sisonke seembacu zehlabathi.
Ukanti iimvakalelo zoluntu eNtshona bekunzima kwiimbacu mva nje. Iinkokeli ezivukelayo kunye neenkokeli zobuzwe zidla ngokudlala kwiinkxalabo zikawonke-wonke malunga neembacu “njengabangoomathuba abonqenayo,” “imithwalo,” “izaphuli-mthetho,” okanye “abanqolobi” ngenxa yengxaki yanamhlanje yeembacu. Amaqela aphambili abakhuselekanga kolu rhetoric nabo, abezopolitiko bayo yonke imivumbo befuna ukonyuswa kolawulo lwemida, amaziko ogcino, kunye nokunqunyanyiswa okwethutyana kwezicelo ze-visa kunye neendawo zokukhosela.
Okubalulekileyo, akukho nanye kwezi mpawu zothusayo zeembacu ezizalwa bubungqina obucwangcisiweyo.
Ngaba Iimbacu Ngamathuba Ezoqoqosho?
Ezona zifundo zithembekileyo zovavanyo Imibutho yeembacu ithi oyena nobangela wokusaba lugonyamelo—kungekhona ithuba lezoqoqosho. Ubukhulu becala, iimbacu zibaleka imfazwe zinethemba lokuhlala kwindawo enogonyamelo olungephi. Kungquzulwano apho urhulumente ejolise ngokusebenzayo kuluntu kwimeko yembubhiso okanye upolitiko, abantu abaninzi khetha ukulishiya ilizwe kunokuba ufune iindawo ezikhuselekileyo ngaphakathi. Uphando luyayingqina le nyaniso kule ngxaki yanamhlanje. E-Syria, omnye wabavelisi abakhulu behlabathi beembacu kule minyaka mihlanu idlulileyo, Iziphumo zovavanyo bacebisa ukuba uninzi lwabemi bayabaleka ngenxa yokuba ilizwe liye laba yingozi kakhulu okanye ukuba imikhosi karhulumente yathatha iidolophu zabo, bebeka ityala kubundlobongela obubi bezopolitiko kurhulumente ka-Assad. (I-13% kuphela ithi babalekile ngenxa yokuba abavukeli bathatha iidolophu zabo, bebonisa ukuba ubundlobongela be-ISIS abukho phantse njengomthombo wokusaba njengoko abanye becebisile).
Yaye iimbacu azifane zikhethe iindawo eziya kuzo ngokusekelwe kumathuba ezoqoqosho; endaweni, 90% of iimbacu ziya kwilizwe elinomda odibanayo (ngaloo ndlela ichaza ukuxinwa kweembacu zaseSiriya eTurkey, eJordan, eLebhanon nase-Iraq). Abo bangahlali kwilizwe eliselumelwaneni badla ngokubalekela kumazwe abaphila kuwo ubudlelwane bentlalo. Ngenxa yokuba ngokuqhelekileyo babalekela ubomi babo, idatha ibonisa ukuba iimbacu ezininzi zicinga ngamathuba ezoqoqosho njengeengcamango zamva kunokuba zikhuthaze ukubaleka. Oko kwathiwa, xa befika kwiindawo zabo, iimbacu ziba njalo ekhuthele kakhulu, ne izifundo zelizwe lonke ecebisa ukuba abafane babe ngumthwalo kuqoqosho lwesizwe.
Kubunzima banamhlanje, “Uninzi lwabantu abafika ngolwandle kumazantsi Yurophu, ngakumbi eGrisi, baphuma kumazwe athwaxwa lugonyamelo nongquzulwano, njengeSiriya, iIraq neAfghanistan; bafuna ukhuseleko lwamazwe ngamazwe kwaye bahlala bediniwe emzimbeni kwaye bonzakele ngokwasengqondweni,” utshilo. Yehlabathi kwiMfazwe.
Ngubani Oyoyikayo “Imbacu Embi Enkulu”?
Ngokubhekiselele kwizisongelo zokhuseleko, iimbacu akufane kwenzeke ukuba zenze ulwaphulo-mthetho kunabemi bokuzalwa. Inyaniso, ukubhala kwiWall Street Journal, UJason Riley uvavanya idatha malunga nekhonkco phakathi kokufudukela kwelinye ilizwe kunye nolwaphulo-mthetho eUnited States kwaye ubiza ulungelelwaniso "yintsomi." NaseJamani, ethathe elona nani liphezulu leembacu ukusukela ngo-2011, Amazinga olwaphulo-mthetho olwenziwa ziimbacu awanyukanga. Ukuhlaselwa ngogonyamelo kwiimbacu, kwelinye icala, ziye zaphinda kabini. Oku kubonisa ukuba iimbacu azithumeli ingxaki yokhuseleko; kunoko, bafuna ukukhuselwa kwizisongelo zogonyamelo ngokwabo. Ngaphezu koko, iimbacu (okanye abo bathi baziimbacu). akunakwenzeka kakhulu ukucwangcisa uhlaselo lwabanqolobi. Kwaye ngenxa yokuba ubuncinci i-51% yeembacu zangoku ngabantwana, njengo-Aylan Kurdi, imbacu yaseSyria eneminyaka emithathu edume ngokurhaxwa kulwandle lweMeditera ngehlobo elidlulileyo, kusenokwenzeka ukuba kuphambi kwexesha ukubamisela kwangaphambili njengabanenzondelelo yempambano, abakhathazi, okanye ukwaliwa ekuhlaleni. .
Ngaphezu koko, iinkqubo zokuhlola iimbacu zingqongqo ngokugqithisileyo kumazwe amaninzi—i-US inawo phakathi kwezona migaqo-nkqubo ingqongqo yeembacu ehlabathini-ngokunjalo kuthintelwa uninzi lweziphumo ezibi ezoyikwa ngabagxeki bemigaqo-nkqubo yemeko yembacu. Nangona ezo nkqubo zingaqinisekisi ukuba zonke izoyikiso ezinokuthi zibe kho azibandakanywanga, ziyawunciphisa kakhulu umngcipheko, njengoko kubonisiwe kukunqongophala kolwaphulo-mthetho olunobundlobongela kunye nohlaselo lobugrogrisi olwenziwa ziimbacu kule minyaka ingamashumi amathathu idlulileyo.
Ngaba yinkqubo eyaphukileyo okanye iNdawo eyaphukileyo?
Ethetha ngengxaki yangoku yababaleki eYurophu, uJan Egeland, owayesakuba nguMthunywa woLuntu we-UN okhokela iBhunga leeMbaleki laseNorway, wathi, "Inkqubo yonakele ngokupheleleyo…Asinakuqhubeka ngolu hlobo.” Kodwa inkqubo ngokuqinisekileyo ayisayi kulungiswa ukuba nje amabali aphukileyo alawula intetho. Kuthekani ukuba siqalisa intetho entsha, esusa ubuxoki obungeembacu ize ixhobise uluntu ukuba luyichase intetho esele ikho ngengxelo ebonisa uvelwano ngendlela ubani abe yimbacu ngayo kwasekuqaleni?
Cinga ngokhetho lokubaleka endaweni yokuhlala kwaye ulwe okanye uhlale kwaye ufe. Uninzi lweembacu ze-59.5 yezigidi ezishiywe kwiingxabano phakathi kwamazwe kunye nabanye abadlali abaxhobileyo-ezifana nezopolitiko zorhulumente waseSiriya kunye nobundlobongela phakathi kwamaqela amaninzi avukelayo asebenza ngaphakathi kweSiriya; I-Syria, iRashiya, i-Iraq, i-Iran, kunye nemfazwe ye-NATO ngokuchasene ne-ISIS; Iimfazwe zaseAfghanistan kunye nePakistan ngokuchasene neTaliban; iphulo le-US eliqhubekayo ngokuchasene ne-Al Qaeda; Iimfazwe zaseTurkey nxamnye namajoni amaKurd; kunye nentaphane yezinye iimeko zobundlobongela kumhlaba jikelele.
Ukunikezelwa kokhetho phakathi kokuhlala kunye nokulwa, ukuhlala kunye nokufa, okanye ukubalekela kunye nokusinda, iimbacu zanamhlanje zibaleke-ithetha ukuba, ngenkcazo, ngokukhutheleyo kunye nenjongo bakhetha ukhetho olungenalo ubundlobongela kumxholo wobundlobongela obuninzi obunzima ngeenxa zonke kubo.
Ngamanye amazwi, indawo yanamhlanje yehlabathi yeembacu ezizizigidi ezingama-59.5 ikakhulu yingqokelela yabantu abakhethe ekuphela kwendlela ekhoyo engenabundlobongela kwiindawo zabo zongquzulwano. Ngeendlela ezininzi, namhlanje iimbacu ezizizigidi ezingama-60 ziye zalandula ugonyamelo, ukuxhatshazwa, nokungabi nakuzinceda ngaxeshanye. Isigqibo sokubalekela kumazwe angaqhelekanga kunye (asoloko enobutshaba) njengembacu asiyonto ilula. Kubandakanya ukuthatha imingcipheko ebalulekileyo, kuquka umngcipheko wokufa. Ngokomzekelo, i-UNHCR iqikelela ukuba iimbacu ze-3,735 zifile okanye zilahlekile elwandle ngelixa zifuna indawo yokukhusela eYurophu ngo-2015. Ngokuchasene nentetho yangoku, ukuba yimbacu kufuneka kuhambelane nokungabi nobundlobongela, isibindi kunye ne-arhente.
Kakade ke, ukhetho lomntu olungenabundlobongela ngaxeshanye alukhethi kwangaphambili ukhetho lomntu olungenabundlobongela kwixesha elizayo. Kwaye njengeendibano ezinkulu ezininzi, akunakuphepheka ukuba iqaqobana labantu liya kuxhaphaza intshukumo yehlabathi yeembacu ukuze baphumeze ezabo iinjongo zolwaphulo-mthetho, ezopolitiko, ezentlalo, okanye ezingokwembono emphethweni-nokuba ngokuzifihla phakathi kwabantu abaninzi ukuze bawele imida. ukwenza izenzo zobundlobongela kumazwe angaphandle, ngokusebenzisa i-polarization yezopolitiko yezopolitiko zokufuduka ukukhuthaza ii-ajenda zabo, okanye ngokuxhaphaza aba bantu ngeenjongo zabo zolwaphulo-mthetho. Phakathi kwabo nabaphi na abemi obu bukhulu, kuya kubakho izenzo zolwaphulo-mthetho apha naphaya, iimbacu okanye hayi.
Kodwa kule ntlekele yanamhlanje, kuya kuba yimfuneko ukuba abantu abanokholo kuyo yonk’ indawo baxhathise umnqweno wokuba izigidi zabantu ezifuna ikhusi kumazwe abo zibangelwa lugonyamelo okanye izenzo zolwaphulo-mthetho zabambalwa. Eli qela lokugqibela alimele iinkcukacha-manani ngokubanzi kwiimbacu ezichongiweyo ngasentla, kwaye aliyikhanyeli into yokuba iimbacu ngokuqhelekileyo ngabantu abathi, kumxholo wokufuduswa kobundlobongela, benze ukhetho oluguqula ubomi, olungenabundlobongela ukuze bazenzele ngokwabo. indlela ebaphosa bona kunye neentsapho zabo kwikamva elingaqinisekanga. Nje ukuba zifike, ngokomlinganiselo isisongelo sogonyamelo chasene Imbacu inkulu kakhulu kunesoyikiso sogonyamelo by imbacu. Ukubaphepha, ukubavalela ngokungathi bazaphuli-mthetho, okanye ukugxothelwa kwindawo edlakazwe yimfazwe kuthumela isigidimi sokuba ukhetho olungenalo ugonyamelo luyohlwaywa—yaye ukwamkela ukuxhatshazwa okanye ukubhenela kugonyamelo kuphela kokhetho oluseleyo. Le yimeko efuna imigaqo-nkqubo equka uvelwano, intlonipho, ukukhuselwa, nokwamkela—kungekhona uloyiko, ukujongelwa phantsi kobuntu, ukuvalelwa ecaleni, okanye ukuchaswa.
Ukubona ukubhabha njengokhetho olungenabundlobongela kuya kuxhobisa ngcono uluntu olunolwazi ukuba lukhuphisane neentetho kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo engabandakanyiyo, kuphakamise intetho entsha exhobisa abezopolitiko abaphakathi, kunye nokwandisa uluhlu lwemigaqo-nkqubo ekhoyo yokuphendula le ngxaki yangoku.
U-Hakim Young (uGqr. Teck Young, Wee) ngugqirha ovela eSingapore owenze umsebenzi wokunceda abantu kunye nentlalontle e-Afghanistan kwiminyaka eyi-10 edlulileyo, kuquka ukuba ngumcebisi kumaVolontiya oXolo e-Afghan, iqela eliphakathi kweentlanga zase-Afghans ezincinci. ezinikele ekwakheni iindlela ezingezizo ubundlobongela endaweni yemfazwe.
