Ngaphezulu kweminyaka engamashumi amathathu eyadlulayo, ngo-Oktobha 1986, iinkokeli zaseUnited States kunye neSoviet Union zadibana kwindibano eyimbali kwikomkhulu laseIceland, iReykjavik. Le ntlanganiso yaqalwa yinkokeli yeSoviet uMikhail Gorbachev, owayekholelwa ukuba “ukuwa kokuthembana” phakathi kwala mazwe mabini kunokunqandwa ngokuphinda kuqalise ingxoxo nomongameli wase-US uRonald Reagan ngemiba ephambili, ngaphezu kwayo yonke into emalunga nezixhobo zenyukliya.

Kumashumi amathathu eminyaka, njengoko iinkokeli zaseRussia kunye ne-United States zilungiselela intlanganiso yazo yokuqala ukusukela kunyulo lwe-2016 yase-US, ingqungquthela ye-1986 isasebenza. (Iqela likaMongameli uDonald Trump likhanyele iingxelo zeendaba zokuba intlanganiso inokuthi ibanjwe eReykjavik.) Nangona kungekho sivumelwano esinye esasayinwa nguGorbachev noReagan, ukubaluleka kwembali yentlanganiso yabo kwakukhulu. Ngaphandle kokusilela okubonakalayo kwentlanganiso yabo, inkokeli yelizwe uReagan yabiza “ubukhosi obubi” yaye umongameli wenkqubo yamaKomanisi utshaba olungagungqiyo lwavula indlela entsha yonxulumano phakathi kwamagunya amakhulu enyukliya.

I QALA I Impumelelo

E-Reykjavik, iinkokeli zamazwe amabini anamandla zichaza izikhundla zazo ngokweenkcukacha omnye komnye kwaye, ngokwenza oko, zakwazi ukuthabatha umtsi ophawulekayo kwimiba yenyukliya. Kunyaka nje kamva, ngoDisemba 1987, iUnited States kunye ne-USSR zatyikitya isivumelwano sokuphelisa imijukujelwa yoluhlu oluphakathi kunye nolufutshane. Ngo-1991, batyikitya iSivumelwano sokuqala sokuNcitshiswa kweArms (START I).

Iinzame zokuyila ezi zivumelwano zazinkulu. Ndathatha inxaxheba ekulungiseleleni isicatshulwa kwezi zivumelwano kuzo zonke izigaba zeengxoxo ezivuthayo, kwizinto ezibizwa ngokuba yi-Small Five kunye ne-Big Five ifomathi-emfutshane kwii-arhente ezahlukeneyo zeSoviet ezijongene nokuqulunqa umgaqo-nkqubo. UKUQALA ndithathe ubuncinci iminyaka emihlanu ndisenza umsebenzi onzima. Iphepha ngalinye lolu xwebhu lude lalikhatshwa yintaphane yemibhalo esemazantsi eyayibonisa iimbono eziphikisanayo zala macala mabini. Kwakufuneka kufunyanwe ukuvumelana kuyo yonke ingongoma. Ngokwemvelo, bekungenakwenzeka ukufikelela kwezi zivumelwano ngaphandle kwentando yezopolitiko kumanqanaba aphezulu.

Ekugqibeleni, isivumelwano esingazange sibekho ngaphambili salungelelaniswa saza sasayinwa, nto leyo esenokujongwa njengomzekelo wobudlelwane phakathi kweentshaba ezimbini. Yayisekelwe kwisindululo sokuqala sikaGorbachev sokuthotywa kwezixhobo zobuchule ngama-50 ekhulwini: amaqela avumelanayo ukuba anciphise iintloko zenyukliya eziphantse zibe li-12,000 nganye ziye kuma-6,000.

Inkqubo yokuqinisekisa isivumelwano yayiyinguqu. Isawubhida ingqondo. Ibandakanye malunga nekhulu lohlaziyo olumalunga nobume bezixhobo ezihlaselayo, uninzi lokuhlolwa kwendawo, kunye notshintshiselwano lwedatha yetelemetry emva kokusungulwa ngakunye komjukujelwa we-intercontinental ballistic (ICBM) okanye imijukujelwa ephuma ngaphantsi kolwandle eyaziswa nge-ballistic (SLBM). Olu hlobo lokungafihli kwicandelo eliyimfihlo aluzange lubekho phakathi kwabo babefudula bechasene nabo, okanye kubudlelwane phakathi kwamahlakani asondeleyo afana ne-United States, i-United Kingdom, neFransi.

Akukho mathandabuzo ukuba ngaphandle kwe-START I, ngekhe kubekho i-START Entsha, eyasayinwa ngumongameli wase-US uBarack Obama kunye nomongameli waseRussia uDmitry Medvedev ngo-2010 ePrague. I-START Ndasebenza njengesiseko se-START Entsha kwaye ndanikezela ngamava ayimfuneko kwisivumelwano, nangona olo xwebhu lwalucingelwa kuphela ukuhlolwa kwe-site yeshumi elinesibhozo (iziseko ze-ICBM, iziseko ze-submarine, kunye neziseko zomoya), ukuhlaziywa kwesimo esingamashumi amane anesibini, kunye ne-telemetry emihlanu. utshintshiselwano lwedatha ye-ICBMs kunye ne-SLBMs ngonyaka.

Ngoku ka utshintshiselwano lwedatha yamva nje phantsi kwe-START Entsha, iRashiya okwangoku inee-ICBMs ezisetyenzisiweyo ezingama-508, ii-SLBMs, kunye neebhombu ezinzima ezineentloko zemfazwe eziyi-1,796, kwaye iUnited States inee-ICBM ezingama-681, ii-SLBMs, kunye neebhombu ezinzima ezineentloko zemfazwe eziyi-1,367. Kwi-2018, la macala mabini kufuneka angabikho ngaphezu kwe-700 esetyenzisiweyo yokuqalisa kunye neebhomu kwaye akukho ngaphezu kwe-1,550 warheads. Isivumelwano siya kuhlala sisebenza kude kube ngu-2021.

I-START I-Lifacy Erodes

Nangona kunjalo, la manani awabonisi ngokuchanekileyo imeko yokwenene yobudlelwane phakathi kweRashiya ne-United States.

Ingxaki kunye nokungabikho kwenkqubela phambili kulawulo lwezixhobo zenyukliya akunakuhlukaniswa nokuqhekeka ngokubanzi kubudlelwane phakathi kweRussia kunye neNtshona okubangelwa ziziganeko e-Ukraine naseSiriya. Nangona kunjalo, kwintsimi yenyukliya, ingxaki yaqala nangaphambi koko, phantse kwangoko emva ko-2011, kwaye ayizange ibonwe kwiminyaka engamashumi amahlanu okoko la mazwe mabini aqala ukusebenzisana kule miba. Kwixesha elidlulileyo, ngokukhawuleza emva kokutyikitya isivumelwano esitsha, amaqela abandakanyekayo ebeza kuqalisa iindibano zothetha-thethwano ezitsha ngobuchule bokunciphisa izixhobo. Nangona kunjalo, ukususela ngo-2011, akuzange kubekho uthetha-thethwano. Kwaye okukhona ixesha lihamba, kokukhona amagosa aphezulu esebenzisa isigama senyukliya kwiingxelo zawo zoluntu.

NgoJuni ka-2013, ngelixa wayeseBerlin, u-Obama wamema iRashiya ukuba isayine isivumelwano esitsha esijolise ekunciphiseni iingalo zeqhinga lamaqela ngesinye kwisithathu. Ngaphantsi kwezi zindululo, izixhobo zokuhlasela zaseRashiya kunye ne-US ziya kulinganiselwa kwi-1,000 yeentloko zemfazwe kunye ne-500 esetyenziselwe izithuthi zokuhambisa inyukliya.

Esinye isiphakamiso sikaWashington sokuncitshiswa ngakumbi kwezixhobo zenziwa ngoJanuwari 2016. isibheno kwiinkokeli zala mazwe mabini ngoosopolitiki abaziwayo kunye nezazinzulu ezivela eUnited States, eRashiya naseYurophu, kuquka owayesakuba nguSenator wase-US uSam Nunn, owayesakuba yi-US kunye neentloko zokukhusela zase-UK uWilliam Perry kunye neNkosi uDes Browne, u-Academician Nikolay Laverov, owayengunozakuzaku waseRashiya eUnited States uVladimir Lukin. , unozakuzaku waseSweden uHans Blix, owayesakuba ngunozakuzaku waseSweden eUnited States uRolf Ekéus, ingcali yefiziksi uRoald Sagdeev, umcebisi uSusan Eisenhower, nabanye abaliqela. Isibheno saququzelelwa kwinkomfa edibeneyo yeForam ye-International Luxembourg on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe kunye ne-Nuclear Threat Initiative eWashington ekuqaleni kukaDisemba 2015 kwaye yanikezelwa ngokukhawuleza kwiinkokeli eziphezulu zamazwe omabini.

Eli cebiso lavusa impendulo erhabaxa evela eMoscow. Urhulumente waseRashiya wadwelisa izizathu ezininzi zokuba wayecinga ukuba uthethwano neUnited States luyinto engenakwenzeka. Baquka, okokuqala, imfuneko yokwenza izivumelwano zamazwe ngamazwe namanye amazwe enyukliya; okwesibini, ukuqhubeka kokuthunyelwa kwemijukujelwa yaseYurophu ne-US yehlabathi jikelele; okwesithathu, ubukho besoyikiso esinokubakho sogwayimbo lokuthotywa kwezixhobo zesiqhelo ezichanekileyo ezichasene nemikhosi yenyukliya yaseRashiya; kwaye okwesine, isoyikiso somkhosi wemfazwe. Ekugqibeleni, iNtshona, ikhokelwa yiUnited States, yatyholwa ngokunyanzelisa umgaqo-nkqubo wezohlwayo ezichasene neRashiya ngenxa yemeko yaseUkraine.

Ukulandela le ngxaki, isiphakamiso esitsha sabekwa phambili yi-United States yokwandisa i-START Entsha iminyaka emihlanu, intshukumo enokuthi itolikwe njengesicwangciso sokugcina ukuba akukho sivumelwano esitsha esivunyelweneyo. Olu khetho luqukiwe kokubhaliweyo kwe-START Entsha. Ulwandiso lufanelekile kakhulu ngokweemeko.

Ingxabano ephambili yokwandiswa kukuba ukungabikho kwesivumelwano kususa i-START I kwisakhelo somthetho, esivumele amaqela ukuba alawule ngokuthembekileyo ukuphunyezwa kwezivumelwano amashumi eminyaka. Esi sikhokelo siquka ulawulo lwezixhobo zobuchule zamazwe, uhlobo kunye nokwakhiwa kwezo zixhobo, iimpawu zemimandla yemissile ejulwayo, inani leenqwelo-mafutha ezithunyelweyo kunye neentloko zemfazwe kuzo, kunye nenani lezithuthi ezingasetyenziswanga. Esi sikhokelo somthetho sikwavumela amaqela ukuba abeke i-ajenda yexesha elifutshane.

Njengoko sele kukhankanyiwe ngasentla, kuye kwakho ukuya kuthi ga kwishumi elinesibhozo lohlolo lokujongana ngonyaka ukusukela ngo-2011 kwindawo nganye, ulwandle, kunye neziseko zomoya zenyukliya ezithathu kunye nezaziso ezingamashumi amane anesibini ngobume bebutho labo lenyukliya elinobuchule. Ukunqongophala kolwazi malunga nemikhosi yomkhosi welinye icala ngokuqhelekileyo kubangela ukuba kuqikelelwe ngokugqithisileyo kokubini amandla obungakanani kunye nobunjani bomntu ochasayo, kunye nesigqibo sokuphucula izakhono zomntu ukuze wakhe isakhono esifanelekileyo sokuphendula. Le ndlela ikhokelela ngqo kugqatso lwezixhobo olungalawulekiyo. Iyingozi ngakumbi xa ibandakanya izixhobo zenyukliya ezicwangcisiweyo, kuba oko kukhokelela ekujongeleni phantsi uzinzo lobuchule njengoko kwakuqondwa ngaphambili. Yiyo loo nto kufanelekile ukwandisa i-START Entsha iminyaka emihlanu eyongezelelweyo ukuya ku-2026.

isiphelo

Nangona kunjalo, kuya kuba ngcono ngakumbi ukutyikitya isivumelwano esitsha. Oko kuya kuvumela amaqela ukuba agcine ibhalansi yeqhinga elizinzileyo ngelixa echitha imali encinci kakhulu kunokuba iya kufuneka ukugcina amanqanaba ezixhobo ezichazwe yi-START Entsha. Eli lungiselelo liya kuba luncedo kakhulu eRashiya kuba isivumelwano esilandelayo sisayinwe, njenge-START I kunye nesivumelwano sangoku, siya kubandakanya kuphela ukucutha imikhosi yenyukliya yase-US kwaye ivumele iRashiya ukuba yehlise iindleko zokugcina amanqanaba esivumelwano ngoku. njengokuphuhlisa nokuphucula iindidi ezongezelelweyo zemijukujelwa.

Kuxhomekeke kwiinkokeli zaseRussia nase-United States ukuthatha la manyathelo anokwenzeka, ayimfuneko, nafanelekileyo. Ingqungquthela yaseReykjavik kwiminyaka engamashumi amathathu eyadlulayo ibonisa into enokwenziwa xa iinkokeli ezimbini, ezimazwe ekucingelwa ukuba ziintshaba ezingenakuthetheleleka, zithatha uxanduva kwaye zithathe amanyathelo okuphucula uzinzo nokhuseleko lwesicwangciso sehlabathi.

Izigqibo zolu hlobo zinokuthathwa luhlobo lweenkokeli ezinkulu ngokwenene, ezilusizi, ezinqongopheleyo kwihlabathi langoku. Kodwa, ukuchaza ngenye indlela ugqirha wengqondo wase-Austrian uWilhelm Stekel, inkokeli emi emagxeni esigebenga inokubona ngakumbi kunesigebenga ngokwaso. Akuyomfuneko ukuba benjenjalo, kodwa banako. Injongo yethu kufuneka ibe kukuqinisekisa ukuba iinkokeli zale mihla ezihleli emagxeni eengxilimbela zikhathalele ukujonga kude.