UPeter Kuznick ngokubaluleka kwesiVumelwano sokuThintelwa kwezixhobo zenyukliya

By World BEYOND War, Oktobha 27, 2020

UPeter Kuznick uphendule le mibuzo ilandelayo evela ku-Mohamed Elmaazi we-Sputnik Radio kwaye wavuma ukuyivumela World BEYOND War papasha isicatshulwa.

I-1) Kubaluleke ngantoni ukuba iHonduras ibe lilizwe lakutshanje lokujoyina iSivumelwano se-UN kwiThintelo lwezixhobo zeNyukliya?

Olunjani uphuhliso olothusayo kunye noluyindinisa, ngakumbi emva kokuba i-US ibicinezele abo batyikitye ama-49 bangaphambili ukuba barhoxise imvume yabo. Kufanelekile ukuba iHonduras, "iRiphabhlikhi yasebhanana" yoqobo, yayityhalela ngapha nangapha - ikukudla okumnandi ukuya kwinkulungwane yokuxhaphaza e-US kunye nokuxhaphaza.

I-2) Ngaba isenokuba sisiphazamiso esithile ukugxila kumazwe angenamandla enyukliya?

Hayi ncma. Esi sivumelwano simele ilizwi lokuziphatha koluntu. Isenokungabi nayo inkqubo yokunyanzeliswa kwendalo iphela, kodwa icacisa gca ukuba abantu bale planethi bayakwenyanya ukulambela amandla, ukupheliswa okusongela amandla amandla alithoba enyukliya. Ukubaluleka komfuziselo akunakugqithwa.

I-3) Sele kukho uMnqophiso weSivumelwano seNyukliya esingaSasazisiyo owaqala ukusebenza ngo-1970 kwaye phantse ilizwe ngalinye kulo mhlaba liyinxalenye yalo. Ngaba i-NPT iyaphila?

I-NPT iye yahlala kumgangatho omangalisayo ngamagunya angengawo enyukliya. Kuyamangalisa ukuba amazwe amaninzi awakhange ahambe ngendlela yenyukliya. Ihlabathi linethamsanqa lokuba abaninzi abakwenzanga oko kuxhuma ngexesha apho, ngokuka-El Baradei, ubuncinci amazwe angama-40 anamandla obuchwephesha okwenza njalo. Abona banetyala lokwaphula umthetho ngabatyikityi abahlanu bokuqala-iUS, Russia, China, Britain, ne France. Abalihoyanga kwaphela iNqaku 6, elifuna ukuba izizwe ezinezixhobo zenyukliya zinciphise zize zisuse ezo zixhobo. Inani elipheleleyo lezixhobo zenyukliya lisenokuba linciphisiwe ukusuka kwi-70,000 ephambeneyo ukuya kwi-13,500 ephambeneyo kancinci, kodwa oko kusanele ukuphelisa ubomi kwiplanethi amaxesha amaninzi ngaphezulu.

I-4) Ukuba ayisiyiyo, yeyiphi into elungileyo esiya kuthi esinye isivumelwano, njengale yaseHonduras isandula ukujoyina, sibe kwimeko enjalo?

I-NPT ayikhange ibe nayo, uphuhliso, ukuhambisa, kunye nesoyikiso sokusebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya ngokungekho semthethweni. Umnqophiso omtsha wenza kwaye ngokucacileyo kunjalo. Esi sisiqwenga esingumfuziselo. Ngelixa ingazukubeka iinkokheli zezixhobo zenyukliya kwimeko yamatyala yiNkundla yamaTyala oLwaphulo-mthetho lwaMazwe ngaMazwe, iya kubeka uxinzelelo kubo ukuba bathobele uluvo lwehlabathi njengoko bekunjalo ngezixhobo zamachiza, imigodi yomhlaba kunye nezinye izivumelwano. Ukuba i-US ibingaxhalatyiswanga ziziphumo zolu xinzelelo, kwakutheni ukuze yenze umzamo onje wokuthintela ukwamkelwa komnqophiso? Njengoko i-Eisenhower kunye ne-Dulles bobabini babesitsho nge-1950s, yayiyindlela yehlabathi yenyukliya eyabamisa ekusebenziseni izixhobo zenyukliya amatyeli aliqela. Uxinzelelo lwehlabathi lokuziphatha lunokubanyanzela abenzi-bubi kwaye ngamanye amaxesha bade babanyanzele ukuba babe ngabadlali abalungileyo.

Ngo-2002 ulawulo lwase-US lukaGeorge W Bush Jr lwarhoxa kwisivumelwano se-ABM. Ulawulo lukaTrump lurhoxile kwi-INF Treaty ngo-2019 kwaye kukho imibuzo malunga nokuba ingaba isivumelwano esitsha se-START siza kuhlaziywa na phambi kokuba siphele ngo-2021. Zombini ezi zivumelwano ze-ABM kunye ne-INF zatyikitywa phakathi kwe-US ne-Soviet Union ukunciphisa umngcipheko imfazwe yenyukliya.

5) Chaza iziphumo zokurhoxa e-US kwizivumelwano eziphambili zolawulo lwenyukliya ezinje nge-ABM kunye nesivumelwano se-INF.

Iziphumo zokurhoxa e-US kwiSivumelwano se-ABM zazikhulu kakhulu. Kwelinye icala, ivumele i-US ukuba iqhubeke nokuphumeza iinkqubo zayo zokukhusela imijukujelwa ezingabonakaliswanga kwaye zibiza kakhulu. Kwelinye, inyanzelise amaRussia ukuba aqale uphando kunye nokuziphucula iindlela zokulwa. Ngenxa yale mizamo, ngo-Matshi 1, 2018, kwidilesi yakhe yeSizwe, uVladimir Putin wabhengeza ukuba amaRussia ngoku enze izixhobo zenyukliya ezintlanu, zonke ezinokuthintela iinkqubo zokhuselo zaseMelika. Yiyo loo nto ukurhoxiswa kwesiVumelwano se-ABM kunike i-US imo engeyiyo yezokhuseleko kwaye ngokubeka iRussia kwindawo esesichengeni, yenze ukuba izinto ezintsha zaseRussia zibeke i-US kwimeko ebuthathaka. Ngokubanzi, oku kuye kwenza ukuba umhlaba ube yingozi ngakumbi. Ukurhoxiswa kwesiVumelwano se-INF ngokufanayo kukhokelele ekungenisweni kwemijukujelwa eyingozi ngakumbi enokuthi ibambe ubudlelwane. Yiyo le nto eyenzekayo xa oonokrwece ababona kude, abafuna inzuzo benza umgaqo-nkqubo kwaye hayi abo bakwimeko efanelekileyo.

6) Kutheni ucinga ukuba i-US ibisuka kwezi zivumelwano zolawulo lwengalo zenyukliya ezazisayinwe neSoviet Union? Ngaba khange bayifeze injongo yabo?

Abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo wolawulo lukaTrump abafuni ukubona i-US inyanzelwa zizivumelwano zehlabathi. Bakholelwa ukuba i-US iyakwazi kwaye iyakuphumelela ugqatso lweengalo. UTrump uthethe ephindaphinda. Kwi-2016, wabhengeza, "Makube ngumdyarho weengalo. Siza kubakhawulela ngaphezulu kwabo bonke abafundi kwaye sibadlula bonke. ” Kule nyanga iphelileyo, umxoxisi ophambili kulawulo lwezengalo kaTrump, uMarshall Billingslea, naye watsho, "Singayichitha iRussia ne China elubanjweni ukuze siphumelele ugqatso lwezixhobo zenyukliya." Bobabini baphambene kwaye kufuneka bathathwe ngamadoda enxibe iidyasi ezimhlophe. Ngo-1986, ngexesha lomdyarho weengalo zangaphambili ngaphambi kokuba uGorbachev, ngoncedo oluncinci emva kwexesha kuReagan, afake ubungqingili emhlabeni, amagunya enyukliya aqokelele malunga nezixhobo zenyukliya ezingama-70,000, ezilingana neebhombu zeHiroshima ezimalunga nesigidi esi-1.5. Ngaba ngokwenene sifuna ukubuyela kuloo nto? USting ucule ingoma enamandla ngeminyaka yoo-1980 ngamazwi athi, “Ndiyathemba ukuba abantu baseRussia bayabathanda nabantwana babo.” Sibe nethamsanqa ukuba benzile. Andicingi ukuba uTrump uyakwazi ukuthanda nabani na ngaphandle kwakhe kwaye unendlela ethe ngqo kwiqhosha lenyukliya kungekho mntu umi endleleni yakhe.

7) Sithini iSivumelwano sokuQala esitsha kwaye singena njani kuko konke oku?

ISivumelwano esitsha sokuQala silinganisela inani lezixhobo zenyukliya ezisetyenzisiweyo ukuya kwi-1,550 kwaye linciphisa inani lezithuthi zokuqalisa. Ngenxa yobugcisa, inani lezixhobo liphezulu kakhulu. Yiyo yonke into eseleyo kulwakhiwo lwezixhobo zenyukliya oluthathe amashumi eminyaka ukumiswa. Kukho konke okumi endleleni yenyukliya kunye nomdyarho weengalo ezintsha ebendithetha nje ngazo. Imiselwe ukuba iphelelwe ngoFebruwari 5. Ukusukela kusuku lokuqala lukaTrump e-ofisini, u-Putin ebezama ukuba uTrump ayongeze ngokungenamiqathango kangangeminyaka emihlanu njengoko isivumelwano sivuma. UTrump wahlazisa umnqophiso kunye nokuseka iimeko ezingenakwenzeka zokuhlaziya. Ngoku, enqwenela ukuphumelela umgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle ngobusuku bonyulo, uzamile ukuthetha-thethana nokongezwa. Kodwa uPutin uyala ukwamkela imigaqo ecetywayo nguTrump noBillingslea, isenza umntu azibuze ukuba uPutin uqiniseke kangakanani kwikona kaTrump.

8) Ungathanda ukubona abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo besuka apha, ngakumbi phakathi kwamandla amakhulu enyukliya?

Okokuqala, kufuneka bandise iSivumelwano sokuQala esitsha seminyaka emihlanu, njengoko uBiden ethembisile ukuba uyakwenza. Okwesibini, kufuneka baphinde babuyisele i-JCPOA (isivumelwano se-Iran) kunye neSivumelwano se-INF. Okwesithathu, kufuneka bathathe zonke izixhobo kwizinwele ezikhubazayo. Okwesine, kufuneka balahle zonke ii-ICBM, zezona ndawo zisemngciphekweni we-arsenal kwaye zifuna ukumiliselwa kwangoko ukuba umjukujelwa ongenayo ubhaqiwe njengoko kwenzekile amaxesha amaninzi kufunyanwa ukuba zii-alarms ezingezizo. Okwesihlanu, kufuneka batshintshe umthetho kunye nolawulo ukuqinisekisa ukuba ezinye iinkokheli ezinoxanduva kufuneka zisayine ngaphandle komongameli ngaphambi kokuba izixhobo zenyukliya zisetyenziswe. Okwesithandathu, kufuneka banciphise izixhobo ezingaphantsi komda wobusika benyukliya. Okwesixhenxe, kufuneka bajoyine i-TPNW kwaye baphelise izixhobo zenyukliya ngokupheleleyo. Okwesibhozo, kufuneka bathathe imali abebeyichitha kwizixhobo zokubhubhisa kwaye bazityale kwiindawo ezizokuphakamisa ubuntu kunye nokuphucula ubomi babantu. Ndingabanika iingcebiso ezininzi malunga nokuba baqala phi ukuba bafuna ukumamela.

UPeter Kuznick unguNjingalwazi weMbali kwiYunivesithi yaseMerika, kunye nombhali we Ngaphandle kweLebhu yeLebhu: Oososayensi njengabasebenzi bezopolitiki kwi-1930s eMelika, umbhali-mbhali kunye no-Akira Kimura  Ukuhlaziya i-Atomic Bombings yaseHiroshima neNagasaki: amaJapan kunye nama-American Perspectives, umbhali-mbhali kunye noYuki Tanaka Amandla eNyukliya kunye neHiroshima: Inyaniso ebangela ukuba kuqhubeke ngoxolo ukusetyenziswa kweNuklea, kunye nomhleli-mhleli kunye noJames Gilbert Ukuhlaziya iNkcubeko yeMfazwe yeCold. Kwi-1995, wasungula iNyukliya ye-American University ye-Nuclear Studies Institute, eyayiyalela. Kwi-2003, uVuznick waququzelela iqela labaphengululi, ababhali, abaculi, abafundisi, nabasemagqabini ukuba babhikishe isibonakaliso sikaSmithsonian se-Enola Gay. Yena kunye nombonisi wefilimu u-Oliver Stone wabhalisa i-12 inxalenye ye-Showtime yechungechunge lweefilimu kunye neencwadi ezibini Imbali engekhoyo ye-United States.