NguWinslow Myers, ngoJanuwari 15, 2018.
Kumgwebo wam njengommi onomdla, kukho iqondo eliphefumlayo lokukhanyela kunye nenkohliso kwihlabathi leqhinga lenyukliya, macala onke. UKim Jong Un ukhohlisa abantu bakhe ngepropaganda engcolileyo malunga nokutshabalalisa iUnited States. Kodwa abantu baseMelika bakwajongele phantsi amandla omkhosi waseMelika, kunye namandla amanye amandla enyukliya-inqanaba lentshabalalo enokuthi iphele. Ukukhanyela, ukucingela okungathandabuzekiyo, kunye nokukhukuliseka kuguqulwe njengomgaqo-nkqubo onengqiqo. Ukubeka uthintelo lwemfazwe kuqala kugutyungelwe yi-paradigm ye-bellicosity eqhelekileyo.
Ukunika ukuba iNorth Korea iqalise imfazwe yaseKorea, i-80% yaseNorth Korea yatshatyalaliswa ngaphambi kokuba iphele. Intloko yeStrategic Air Command, uCurtis Lemay, wawisa iibhombu ezininzi kuMntla Korea kunezo zaziqhushumbisiwe kulo lonke iqonga laseAsia-Pacific ebudeni beMfazwe Yehlabathi II. Uqoqosho lwaseNyakatho Korea lwehlile kwaye ngokuyinxenye luphinde lwachacha. Kwabakho indlala ngeminyaka yoo-1990. Akukho kuvalwa, akukho sivumelwano sisesikweni soxolo. Ingqondo yaseNyakatho Korea yeyokuba sisesemfazweni-isizathu esifanelekileyo sokuba iinkokeli zabo zihlasele i-US, ziphazamisa iingqondo zabemi babo ngotshaba lwangaphandle-i-trope yakudala yobukhosi. Ilizwe lethu liyaqhubekeka ukudlala kanye kule meko.
Usapho lukaKim Jong Un lubandakanyeke ekuthengiseni izixhobo ezingekho mthethweni kunye neheroin, ukwenza imali yomgunyathi, intlawulo yentlawulelo eye yaphazamisa ngenkohlakalo umsebenzi wezibhedlele kwihlabathi liphela, ukubulawa kwezalamane, ukuvalelwa ngokungekho mthethweni, kunye nokungcungcuthekiswa kwabachaseneyo kwiinkampu ekusetyenzwa nzima kuzo.
Kodwa ingxaki yethu yangoku kunye neNorth Korea ngumzekelo othile wemeko yeplanethi jikelele, enye enzima ngokulinganayo kwingxabano yaseKashmir, umzekelo, ebeka i-nyukliya yase-India ngokuchasene nePakistan yenyukliya. Kunjengokuba uEinstein wabhalayo ngowe-1946, “Amandla akhululwayo eathom aye atshintsha yonke into ngaphandle kweendlela zethu zokucinga, yaye ngaloo ndlela siphethukela kwintlekele engenakulinganiswa nanto.” Ngaphandle kokuba sifumana indlela entsha yokucinga, siza kujongana nee-North Koreas ezininzi ezantsi ngexesha.
Konke ukuntsonkotha kweqhinga lenyukliya, kunokwenziwa zibe mbini izinto ezinokubakho: Kudala sodlula umda opheleleyo wamandla atshabalalisayo kwaye akukho nkqubo yobuchwepheshe iyilwe ngabantu ebisoloko ingenazimpazamo.
Ibhombu ye-thermonuclear yaqhushumba ngaphezu kwaso nasiphi na isixeko esikhulu inokuthi ngemizuzwana nje inyuse iqondo lobushushu libe ngama-4 okanye ama-5 ngaphezulu kwelanga. Yonke into emalunga nekhulu leemayile ezisikweri ngokujikeleze ubhubhani iya kuvutha ngoko nangoko. Isiphango somlilo siza kuvelisa imimoya eyi-500 yeemayile ngeyure, ekwazi ukufunxa emahlathini, kwizakhiwo nakubantu. Uthuthu olunyuka luye kwi-troposphere ukusuka ekuqhunyisweni kwembalwa njenge-1% ukuya kwi-5% yezixhobo zehlabathi kunokuba nefuthe lokupholisa iplanethi yonke kunye nokuncipha kweshumi leminyaka amandla ethu okukhulisa into esiyidingayo ukuze sizondle. Iibhiliyoni zaziza kufa yindlala. Andizange ndive malunga naziphi na iindibano zeCongress ezithetha ngale nto inomdla-nangona ingelolwazi olutsha. Kwiminyaka engama-33 eyadlulayo, umbutho wam, iBeyond War, waxhasa ngenkxaso-mali yenkcazo ngobusika benyukliya eyanikelwa nguCarl Sagan kuonozakuzaku bezizwe ezimanyeneyo abangama-80. Ubusika beNyukliya bunokuba ziindaba zakudala, kodwa ukuphambukisa kwayo intsingiselo yamandla omkhosi kuhlala kungazange kubonwe ngaphambili kunye nokutshintsha komdlalo. Iimodeli ezihlaziyiweyo zicebisa ukuba ukuze kuthintelwe ubusika benyukliya, onke amazwe axhobe ngenyukliya kufuneka anciphise izixhobo zawo zokulwa zibe malunga nama-200 eentloko zemfazwe.
Kodwa nokuncipha okunje akuzisombululi ingxaki yempazamo okanye ukubala kakubi, nto leyo-eqinisekiswe yi-alamu yobuxoki yaseHawaii-yeyona ndlela inokwenzeka ukuba imfazwe yenyukliya neNorth Korea iqale. I-clich yobudlelwane boluntu kukuba umongameli uhlala enaye iikhowudi, amakhonkco ezenzo ezivumelayo, kuphela kwendlela enokuqaliswa ngayo imfazwe yenyukliya. Ngelixa oku kukuphakamisa iinwele ngokwaneleyo, inyani isenokudanisa ngakumbi. Akukho nto yase-US okanye yaseRashiya yokuthintela, okanye iNorth Korea ngaloo nto, iya kuba nokuthembeka ukuba iintshaba zikholelwa ukuba imfazwe yenyukliya inokuphumelela ngokuthatha ikomkhulu lotshaba okanye intloko yelizwe. Ezi nkqubo ke ngoko ziyilelwe ukuqinisekisa impindezelo evela kwezinye iindawo, kwaye kwakhona phantsi ikhonkco lomyalelo.
Ngexesha lentlekele ye-missile yaseCuba, uVasili Archipov wayeligosa kwinqanawa yaseSoviet apho umkhosi wethu waselwandle wawulahla izinto ezazibizwa ngokuba ziibhombu zokuziqhelanisa, ukuze zifikelele phezulu. IiSoviets zazicinga ukuba iibhombu zazizityholo ezinzulu ngokwenene. Amagosa amabini afuna ukutshisa i-torpedo yenyukliya kwindawo ekufutshane yokuthwala inqwelomoya yaseMelika. Ngokutsho kwenkqubo yomkhosi waselwandle waseSoviet, amagosa amathathu kwafuneka avume. Akukho namnye owayekhwele inkwili owayefuna ikhowudi yokuya phambili evela kuMnu. Khrushchev ukuze athabathe inyathelo eliyingozi eliya ekupheleni kwehlabathi. Ngethamsanqa, uArchipov akazange afune ukuvuma. Ngobulumko obufanayo obufanayo, abazalwana bakaKennedy bamnqanda uGeneral Curtis Lemay okhankanywe ngasentla ekuqhubhiseni iCuba ngexesha lentlekele. Ukuba ukungxama kukaLemay bekukhona ngo-Okthobha ka-1962, ngebe sihlasela zombini izixhobo zenyukliya ezinobuchule kunye nemijukujelwa yoluhlu oluphakathi eCuba enezixhobo zenyukliya esele zixhonywe kuzo. Robert McNamara: “Kwixesha lenyukliya, iimpazamo ezinjalo zinokuba yintlekele. Akunakwenzeka ukuxela kwangaphambili ngokuzithemba iziphumo zezenzo zomkhosi ngamagunya amakhulu. Ngoko ke, kufuneka siphumelele ukuphepha ingxaki. Loo nto ifuna ukuba sizibeke ezihlangwini zomnye nomnye.”
Ngelixa lokukhululeka emva kwentlekele yaseCuba, isiphelo esinengqondo sathi “akukho cala liphumeleleyo; ihlabathi liphumelele, masiqinisekise ukuba asisokuze sisondele kwakhona.” Nakuba kunjalo—sazingisa. USosiba weLizwe uRusk ngovuyo wenza isifundo esiphosakeleyo: “Siye sajongana neso laza elinye icala laqhwanyaza.” I-juggernaut yomkhosi-yemizi-mveliso kumagunya amakhulu nakwezinye iindawo yaqengqeleka. Ubulumko bukaEinstein abuzange buhoywe.
Ukuthintela iNyukliya kuqulethe oko iintanda-bulumko zikubiza ngokuba kukuchasana okusebenzayo: Ukuze zingaze zisetyenziswe, izixhobo zomntu wonke kufuneka zigcinwe zilungele ukusetyenziswa ngoko nangoko, kodwa ukuba zisetyenziswa, sijongene nokuzibulala kweplanethi. Ekuphela kwendlela yokuphumelela asikokudlala.
Ingxabano yokutshatyalaliswa eqinisekisiweyo kukuba imfazwe yehlabathi ithintelwe iminyaka engama-73. UChurchill wakuthethelela oko ngobuciko bakhe obuqhelekileyo, kule meko exhasa ingcamango yenkohliso: “Ukhuseleko luya kuba ngumntwana owomeleleyo woloyiko, yaye ukusinda kuya kuba liwele lentshabalalo.”
Kodwa uthintelo lwenyukliya aluzinzanga. Ivalela izizwe kumjikelo ongapheliyo wokwakha/zakhayo, kwaye siyakhukuliseka koko iingcali zengqondo zithi ukufunda ukungakwazi ukuzinceda. Ngaphandle kwengcinga yethu yokuba izixhobo zethu zenyukliya zikhona kuphela ukuthintela, kuphela njengokhuselo, abongameli abaninzi base-US bazisebenzise ukusongela iintshaba. Ngokucacileyo uGeneral MacArthur wayecinga ukuzisebenzisa ngexesha lemfazwe yaseKorea, kanye njengokuba uNixon wayezibuza ukuba izixhobo zenyukliya zinokutshintsha ukoyisa okuzayo eVietnam. Inkokeli yethu yangoku ithi kunceda ngantoni ukuba nazo ukuba asikwazi ukuzisebenzisa? Loo nto ayithethi ukubanqanda. Leyo yintetho yomntu ongaqondi ngokupheleleyo ukuba izixhobo zenyukliya zahluke ngokupheleleyo.
Ngo-1984, imijukujelwa yoluhlu oluphakathi yathunyelwa eYurophu ngabo bobabini kunye ne-USSR yexesha lokuthatha izigqibo ze-NATO kunye neeSoviets zacuthwa zaba yimizuzu. Ihlabathi lalisele liphelile, njengokuba kunjalo namhlanje. Nabani na owayephila kwi-reds-under-the-bed hysteria yexesha likaMcCarthy uya kukhumbula ukuba iingcamango ezininzi malunga neSoviet Union njengolwaphulo-mthetho, ububi kunye nokungahloneli Thixo zaziphindwe kaliwaka kunokuba siziva namhlanje ngoKim kunye nelizwe lakhe elincinci. .
Ngo-1984, ukuhlonipha ooGqirha baMazwe ngaMazwe okuThintelwa kweMfazwe yeNyukliya, umbutho wam, uNgapha kweMfazwe, waseka “ibhulorho yesiphekepheke” kamabonwakude phakathi kweMoscow neSan Francisco. Abaphulaphuli abaninzi kuzo zombini ezi zixeko, abahlulwe kungekuphela nje ngamaxesha alishumi elinesibini kodwa nangamashumi eminyaka emfazwe ebandayo, baphulaphule izibongozo zoomongameli be-IPPNW, zoxolelwaniso phakathi kwe-US kunye neSoviets. Owona mzuzu ungaqhelekanga wafika ekupheleni xa sonke kubo bobabini abaphulaphuli ngokuzenzekela saqalisa ukuwangawangisana.
Umgxeki wabhala uhlahlelo olubi lomsitho wethu kwiWall Street Journal, esithi i-US, incediswa ngaphaya kobuqhetseba obuluncedo bemfazwe, iye yaxhatshazwa kubhengezo lobuxoki lobukomanisi. Kodwa ibhulorho yasemajukujukwini yajika yangaphezulu nje komzuzu wembaya. Ukuphuhlisa abafowunelwa bethu, siye sahlanganisa amaqela amabini ezazinzulu zenyukliya ezikwinqanaba eliphezulu ezisuka eUnited States naseSoviet Union ukuba zibhale incwadi ethetha ngemfazwe yenyukliya eyenzeka ngengozi, ebizwa ngokuba “yiNtshukumo.” UGorbachev wayifunda. Umsebenzi wezigidi zabaqhankqalazi, ii-NGOs ezifana ne-Beyond War, kunye namagosa enkonzo yangaphandle aqeqeshiweyo aqala ukuvelisa isiqhamo kwisiqingatha sesibini se-1980. Ngowe-1987 uReagan noGorbachev batyikitya isivumelwano esibalulekileyo sokuthotywa kwezixhobo zenyukliya. Udonga lwaseBerlin lwawa ngowe-1989. UGorbachev noReagan, ngexesha elibuhlungu lokuziva besempilweni, badibana ngowe-1986 eReykjavik yaye bade bacinga ngokutshabalalisa zonke izixhobo zenyukliya zamazwe amabini anamandla. Amanyathelo anjalo ukusuka kwi-1980s ahlala ebaluleke kakhulu kumngeni waseNyakatho Korea. Ukuba sifuna iNorth Korea itshintshe, kufuneka sihlole eyethu indima ekudalweni kwegumbi le-echo logrogriso kunye nesoyikiso.
Ukusweleka kuka Dr. Wanxulumanisa amachaphaza phakathi kobuhlanga bethu kunye nemfazwe yethu. Okubalulekileyo, uGeneral Curtis Lemay, umqhushumbisi womlilo waseTokyo kwiMfazwe yesibini yeHlabathi, isibetho saseKorea, esiphantse sabangela imfazwe yamandla enyukliya ngexesha lentlekele yaseCuba, yaphinda yavela kwimbali enye kwakhona, ngo-1968, kwangaloo nyaka kwabulawa uKumkani—njengoko uGeorge Wallace esitsho. umgqatswa wesekela mongameli. Ukucinga ukwenza ePyongyang ngo-2018 into esiyenzileyo e-Hiroshima ngo-1945 ifuna ukuthotywa kwabantu abazizigidi ezingama-25 baseNyakatho Korea. Ukuthetheleleka kukaLemay ngokufa kwabantu abaninzi kuvela kwindawo yengqondo efanayo nobuhlanga bukaGeorge Wallace (kunye noMongameli Trump).
Abantwana baseNorth Korea bafanele ubomi njengobethu. Akunjalo kumbaya. Lo ngumyalezo ekufuneka iNorth Korea iwuve kuthi. Ukuba uKumkani wayesekunye nathi, wayeya kududuma ukuba iirhafu zethu zihlawule ukubulawa kwabantu abaninzi kwinqanaba eliza kwenza ukuba imbubhiso yamaYuda ibukeke njengepikiniki. Angatsho ukuba kukuphepha ukuziphatha ukucinga ukuba ii-nukes zethu zilungile kuba zilawulwa yidemokhrasi, kwaye uKim bubi ngenxa yokuba bangoozwilakhe. Ilizwe lethu kufuneka lijonge ubuncinci kumxholo wemigangatho ephindwe kabini, apho sithintela izixhobo zenyukliya e-Iran naseNyakatho Korea kodwa hayi ngokwethu. INorth Korea kunye ne-Iran kufuneka zithintelwe ubulungu kwiklabhu yenyukliya, kodwa ke kufuneka kube njalo kuthi sonke.
Ukucinga okutsha kufuna ukuba sibuze nabalinganiswa abangathandekiyo njengoKim Jong Un, "ndingakunceda njani ukuba usinde, ukuze siphile sonke?" Bonke abafowunelwa, kubandakanywa neeOlimpiki zaseSeoul, zibonelela ngamathuba oqhagamshelwano. Ukuba sinomonde ngobuchule, iNorth Korea iya kuvela ngaphandle kwemfazwe yaseKorea. Oku sele kusenzeka njengoko amandla entengiso kunye netekhnoloji yolwazi ngokuthe ngcembe besebenza ngendlela yabo kwinkcubeko yabo evaliweyo.
Olona thintelo lugqibeleleyo lwemfazwe yenyukliya, noMntla Korea okanye nabani na ongomnye, lufuna ukucuthwa okupheleleyo, okuphindaphindanayo, okuqinisekisiweyo kwezixhobo zenyukliya zomntu wonke, kuqala phantsi komda wobusika benyukliya emva koko, ixesha elide, ukuhla ukuya kuthi ga kwiqanda. Ilizwe lethu kufuneka likhokele. UMnu. Trump kunye noMnu. Putin banokusebenzisa ubudlelwane babo obungaqhelekanga ngokuqalisa inkomfa esisigxina yokuchithwa kwezixhobo zenyukliya, ngokuthe ngcembe babhalise ukuthatha inxaxheba kwamanye amagunya enyukliya e-7. Ihlabathi liphela beliya kuba lizingela impumelelo, endaweni yokuba lisoyike njengoko linjalo ngoku. Iintshukumo zokwakha ukuzithemba zinokwenzeka. Owayesakuba nguNobhala wezoKhuselo uWilliam Perry uye waxoxa ukuba i-United States iya kuba ngaphezulu, hayi ngaphantsi, ikhuseleke ngakumbi ukuba singazicima ngokuzimeleyo ii-ICBM zethu ezingama-450 kwii-silos, umlenze osekwe emhlabeni we-triad yethu yenyukliya.
Ababhali abanjengoSteven Pinker kunye noNick Kristof bachonge uninzi lweendlela ezibonisa ukuba iplanethi iyahamba ngokuthe ngcembe emfazweni. Ndifuna ilizwe lam lincede ukukhawulezisa ezo ndlela, zingacothi, okanye uthixo asincede, azibuyisele umva. Bekufanele ukuba sixhase, kunokuba sikwale, isivumelwano samva nje se-UN esivala izixhobo zenyukliya. Amazwe ali-122 kwali-195 asityikityile eso sivumelwano. Isivumelwano esinjalo ekuqaleni sinokubonakala singenamazinyo, kodwa imbali isebenza ngeendlela ezingaqhelekanga. Ngowe-1928, amazwe ali-15 atyikitya isivumelwano sikaKellogg-Briand, esathi sayivala yonke imfazwe. Yavunywa, ukuba unokukholelwa, yi-senate yase-United States kwivoti ye-85 kwi-1. Isebenza ngokusemthethweni, nangona ihamba ngaphandle kokuthetha ukuba ihlonishwe ngakumbi kwi-fraction kunokuba igcinwe. Kodwa olo xwebhu ekwakusithiwa luyi-pie-in-the-sky lwaba sisiseko esisemthethweni sokugwebela amaNazi ngolwaphulo-mthetho olunxamnye noxolo ebudeni betyala laseNuremberg.
Ii-injini ezifanayo ezisebenzisa amandla imijukujelwa yethu nazo ziye zasiqhubela emajukujukwini, zisivumela ukuba siwubone umhlaba njengento ephilayo enye—umfanekiso ophilileyo, onamandla nopheleleyo wokuxhomekeka kwethu omnye komnye. Izinto esizenzayo kwiintshaba zethu sizenza kuthi. Kungumsebenzi wexesha lethu ukwenza le ngcinga intsha nakwezona zibalo zethu zokusinda zikaMachiavellian-ukuzibeka ezihlangwini zomnye njengoko watshoyo uNobhala uMcNamara. Ummandla wendalo awuzange uzise isijikelezi-langa sethu kwinkqubo yeminyaka eyi-13.8 yeebhiliyoni ukuze siwuphelise ngokuzibulala. Ukungasebenzi kakuhle kwenkokeli yethu ekhoyo kusebenza kuphela ekucaciseni ukungasebenzi kakuhle kwenkqubo yokuthintela yenyukliya iyonke.
Abameli bethu badinga ukuva uninzi lwethu lucela iingxoxo ezivulekileyo malunga nomgaqo-nkqubo wenyukliya, ngakumbi ubusika benyukliya, impambano yokuzoyisa "yamacebo" anjengokuqaliswa kokulumkisa, kunye nokuthintela imfazwe yenyukliya ngempazamo.
Umbono wehlabathi osekiweyo kukuba abantu abalungileyo bazama ukwakha uluntu oluthandekayo lukaKumkani, kwaye ukuthintela inyukliya kukhusela uluntu olubuthathaka kwihlabathi eliyingozi. UKumkani wayenokuthi ukuthintela inyukliya ngokwayo yinxalenye enkulu yengozi. Ukuba thina apha e-United States siye safikelela kwisono sokuqala sobuhlanga kunye nobundlobongela bethu, besiya kujonga umngeni waseNyakatho Korea ngamehlo ahlukeneyo, kwaye banokusibona ngendlela eyahlukileyo nathi. Sithi sikhukuliseka siye kwintlekele engenakuthelekiswa nanto okanye senza konke okusemandleni ethu ukwakha uluntu oluthandwayo lukaKumkani—ehlabathini lonke.
Winslow Myers, uMartin Luther King Day, ngo-2018
