NguDavid P. Barash, ngoJanuwari 14, 2018
Kwiklasi yakhe I-Evolution yeSicwangciso seNyukliya (1989), uLawrence Freedman, umphathi wababhali-mbali basemkhosini baseBritani namagcisa obuchule, waqukumbela ngelithi: ‘UMlawuli uDeterrence usenokuba akanampahla, kodwa usenguMlawuli.’ Nangona ubuze bakhe, lo mlawuli uyaqhubeka ejikeleza, efumana isidima asimfanelanga, ngelixa ebeka umhlaba wonke emngciphekweni. Uthintelo lweNyukliya luluvo oluye lwaba yingcamango enokuba yingozi, leyo ehlala inempembelelo nangona iye yandelwa ngokungathenjwa.
Ngaloo ndlela, uthintelo lwenyukliya lwazalwa, ilungiselelo elibonakala lisengqiqweni ekwakuza kuvela ngalo uxolo nozinzo ngesisongelo sokutshatyalaliswa okuqinisekisiweyo (MAD, ngokufanelekileyo ngokwaneleyo).
UWinston Churchill wayichaza ngo-1955 ngamandla ophawu: 'Ukhuseleko luya kuba ngumntwana oqinileyo woloyiko, kunye nokusinda kwiwele lembubhiso.'
Okubalulekileyo kukuba, uthintelo aluzange lube liqhinga nje ekuthethwa ngalo, kodwa zezona zizathu oorhulumente bezithethelela ngazo izixhobo zenyukliya. Wonke urhulumente ngoku onezixhobo zenyukliya uthi uyaluthintela uhlaselo ngesisongelo sempindezelo eyintlekele.
Nangona uviwo olufutshane, nangona kunjalo, lubonisa ukuba ukuthintela akukho kude njengomgaqo onyanzelisayo njengoko igama libonisa. Kwinoveli yakhe Ama-ambassadors(1903), uHenry James wachaza ubuhle obuthile 'njengelitye elinqabileyo eliqaqambileyo neliqinileyo', ngokukhawuleza ukuqhwanyaza kunye nokungcangcazela, wongezelela ukuba 'into eyayibonakala yonke ingaphezulu umzuzu omnye ibonakala inzulu ngokulandelayo'. Uluntu luye lwahlaziywa yimbonakalo ecwebezelayo yokuthintela, kunye nesithembiso salo samandla, ukhuseleko kunye nokhuseleko. Kodwa oko kuchazwa njengobunzulu beqhinga lobunzulu buyawohloka ngokulula okumangalisayo xa kujongwa ngokunzulu.
Masiqale ngokuqwalasela undoqo wethiyori yokuthintela: ukuba isebenzile.
Abameli bokuthintela inyukliya bagxininisa ukuba kufuneka siyibulele into yokuba imfazwe yehlabathi yesithathu iye yaphetshwa, naxa iingxabano phakathi kwamagunya amabini amakhulu - i-US kunye ne-USSR - yayiphezulu.
Abanye abaxhasi bade bathi ukuthintelwa kwabeka iqonga lokuwa kweSoviet Union nokoyiswa kobuKomanisi. Kule ngxelo, isithintelo senyukliya saseNtshona sithintele i-USSR ekuhlaseleni iYurophu esentshona, kwaye yahlangula umhlaba kwisoyikiso sobuzwilakhe bobuKomanisi.
Kukho, nangona kunjalo, iingxoxo ezinyanzelisayo ezicebisa ukuba i-US kunye ne-Soviet Union yangaphambili yayinqanda imfazwe yehlabathi ngenxa yezizathu ezininzi ezinokwenzeka, ngakumbi ngenxa yokuba akukho cala lifuna ukuya emfazweni. Ewe, i-US kunye neRussia azizange zilwe imfazwe ngaphambi kwexesha lenyukliya. Ukukhetha izixhobo zenyukliya njengesizathu sokuba iMfazwe Yomlomo ingazange ibe shushu ngandlel’ ithile kufana nokuthi inqwelo-mafutha emdaka, engenanjini okanye amavili, ayizange ibaleke iqashiso kuba kungekho mntu ujike isitshixo. Ukuthetha ngokusengqiqweni, akukho ndlela yokubonisa ukuba izixhobo zenyukliya zigcine uxolo ngexesha leMfazwe Yomlomo, okanye zikwenza oko ngoku.
Mhlawumbi kwabakho uxolo phakathi kwala magunya mabini ngenxa nje yokuba ayengenangxabano eyayithethelela umlo otshabalalisayo, kwanemfazwe eqhelekileyo.
Akukho bungqina, umzekelo, bokuba iinkokeli zaseSoviet zakha zacinga ngokuzama ukoyisa intshona yeYurophu, ingasathethi ke ngokuba yayithintelwe yiNtshona yezixhobo zenyukliya. Iposi factor iingxoxo-ngakumbi ezigxekayo-zinokuba yimali yeepundits, kodwa akwenzeki ukungqina, kwaye akukho siseko siqinileyo sokuvavanya ibango elingeyonyani, kucingwa ukuba kutheni kukho into eyenzekileyo. hayi yenzekile.
Ngokwentetho, ukuba inja ayikhonkothi ebusuku, ngaba sinokutsho siqinisekile ukuba akukho mntu udlulayo endlwini? Abo bathanda ukunqandwa bafana nalaa mfazi wayetshiza ingca kwingca yakhe rhoqo kusasa. Xa ummelwane owayedidekile wabuza ngesi senzo singaqhelekanga, waphendula wathi: 'Ndikwenzela ukuba iindlovu zingabikho.' Ummelwane waqhankqalaza wathi: 'Kodwa akukho ndlovu kumgama weekhilomitha ezingama-10,000 XNUMX ukusuka apha,' emva koko isiqholo sesiqholo saphendula sathi: 'Uyabona, siyasebenza!'
Akufunekanga sivuyisane neenkokeli zethu, okanye ithiyori yokuthintela, ngakumbi izixhobo zenyukliya, ngokugcina uxolo.
Esinokuthi, ukusukela ngale ntsasa, abo banamandla okutshabalalisa ubomi abakakwenzi oko. Kodwa oku akuthuthuzeli kwaphela, yaye nembali ayisaqinisekisi. Ixesha 'loxolo lwenyukliya', ukusuka kwiMfazwe yeSibini yeHlabathi ukuya ekupheleni kweMfazwe yoMlomo, lathatha ixesha elingaphantsi kwamashumi amahlanu eminyaka. Ngaphezu kweminyaka engama-20 yahlula iMfazwe yokuQala neyeSibini yeHlabathi; ngaphambi koko, bekukho iminyaka engaphezu kwama-40 yoxolo phakathi kokuphela kweMfazwe yeFranco-Prussian (1871) neMfazwe Yehlabathi Yokuqala (1914), neminyaka engama-55 phakathi kweMfazwe yamaPrussia aseFransi nokoyiswa kukaNapoleon eWaterloo (1815). ).
KwanaseYurophu ethandwa ziimfazwe, amashumi eminyaka uxolo alunqabile kangako. Ngalo lonke ixesha, xa uxolo luphela kwaye kwaqala imfazwe elandelayo, imfazwe yayibandakanya izixhobo ezazikho ngelo xesha - leyo, enkulu elandelayo, yayinokuthi ibandakanye izixhobo zenyukliya. Ekuphela kwendlela yokuqinisekisa ukuba izixhobo zenyukliya azisetyenziswa kukuqinisekisa ukuba azikho izixhobo ezinjalo. Ngokuqinisekileyo akukho sizathu sokucinga ukuba ubukho bezixhobo zenyukliya buya kuthintela ukusetyenziswa kwazo. Inyathelo lokuqala lokuqinisekisa ukuba abantu abavelisi imbubhiso yenyukliya inokuba kukubonisa ukuba i-Emperor Deterrence ayinampahla-nto leyo eya kuthi ivule ithuba lokutshintsha inkohliso ngento efanelekileyo.
Kusenokwenzeka ukuba uxolo lwasemva ko-1945 lwase-US-Soviet lweza 'ngamandla', kodwa oko akufuneki ukuba kuthethe ukuthintelwa kwenyukliya. Ayinakuphikiswa into yokuba ubukho bezixhobo zenyukliya kwisixhobo sokuxhobisa iinwele ezikwaziyo ukufikelela kwilizwe lasemzini ngemizuzu kwenze omabini la macala arhabaxa.
I-Cuban Missile Crisis ka-1962 - xa, ngazo zonke ii-akhawunti, ihlabathi lasondela kwimfazwe yenyukliya kunalo naliphi na elinye ixesha-ayibo bungqina bokusebenza kokuthintela: ingxaki yenzeka ngenxa yezixhobo zenyukliya. Kusenokwenzeka ukuba sisindisiwe kwimfazwe yenyukliya hayi ngenxa yothintelo kodwa naphezu kwayo.
Kwanaxa zikho icala elinye, izixhobo zenyukliya azikhange zizithintele ezinye iintlobo zemfazwe. Uhlaziyo lwaseTshayina, lwaseCuba, lwaseIran kunye neNicaragua zonke lwenzeka nangona i-US enezixhobo zenyukliya ixhasa oorhulumente ababhukuqiweyo. Ngokufanayo, i-US yaphulukana neMfazwe yaseVietnam, kanye njengoko iSoviet Union yaphulukana ne-Afghanistan, ngaphandle kokuba omabini la mazwe engenazo izixhobo zenyukliya kuphela, kodwa kunye nezixhobo ezingcono eziqhelekileyo kuneentshaba zabo. Kwaye izixhobo zenyukliya azizange zincede iRussia kwimfazwe yayo engaphumelelanga ngokuchasene nabavukeli baseChechen ngo-1994-96, okanye ngo-1999-2000, xa izixhobo zesiqhelo zaseRashiya zayonakalisa iRiphabhliki yaseChechen.
Zixhobo ze nyukliya Ayizange incede i-US ukuba ifezekise iinjongo zayo e-Iraq okanye e-Afghanistan, eziye zaba yintlekele enkulu yokusilela kwilizwe ngezona zixhobo ziphezulu zenyukliya. Ngaphezu koko, ngaphandle kwezixhobo zayo zenyukliya, i-US ihleli yoyika uhlaselo lwasekhaya lwabanqolobi, olunokuthi lwenziwe ngezixhobo zenyukliya kunokuba luthintelwe zizo.
Ngamafutshane, akukho semthethweni ukuphikisa ukuba izixhobo zenyukliya zithintele ikhona uhlobo lwemfazwe, okanye baya kukwenza oko kwixesha elizayo. Ebudeni beMfazwe Yomlomo, icala ngalinye labandakanyeka kwiimfazwe eziqhelekileyo: iiSoviet, ngokomzekelo, eHungary (1956), eCzechoslovakia (1968), naseAfghanistan (1979-89); amaRashiya aseChechnya (1994-96; 1999-2009), Georgia (2008), Ukraine (2014-ngoku), kwakunye neSiriya (2015-ngoku); kunye ne-US eKorea (1950-53), iVietnam (1955-75), iLebhanon (1982), iGrenada (1983), iPanama (1989-90), iPersian Gulf (1990-91), iYugoslavia yangaphambili (1991- 99), Afghanistan (2001-ngoku), kunye Iraq (2003-ngoku), ukukhankanya nje iimeko ezimbalwa.
Kananjalo izixhobo zabo azikhange zikuthintele uhlaselo lwamazwe axhobe ngenyukliya ngabachasi abangezonyukliya. Ngo-1950, i-China yema iminyaka eli-14 ukusuka ekuphuhliseni nasekusebenziseni izixhobo zayo zenyukliya, ngelixa i-US yayinezixhobo zeathom eziphuhliswe kakuhle. Nangona kunjalo, njengoko iMfazwe yaseKorea yayiguquguquka kakhulu ngokuchasene neNyakatho, ukuba i-arsenal ye-nyukliya yase-US ayizange iyithintele i-China ukuba ithumele ngaphezu kwe-300,000 yamajoni ngaphaya koMlambo i-Yalu, okukhokelela ekugxininiseni kwi-peninsula yaseKorea eyahlulayo ukuza kuthi ga namhlanje, kwaye iye yabangela ukuba iChina ithumele amajoni angaphezu kwama-XNUMX. kubangele ukuba kubekho ukruthakruthwano oluyingozi ehlabathini olungasonjululwanga.
Ngo-1956, i-United Kingdom eyayixhobe ngenyukliya yalumkisa i-Egypt engeyiyo eyenyukliya ukuba iyeke ukwenza iSuez Canal ibe yelizwe. Akukho nto: i-UK, i-France kunye ne-Israel ziphelile ngokuhlasela iSinayi ngemikhosi eqhelekileyo. Ngo-1982, iArgentina yahlasela iZiqithi zaseFalkland ezaziphethwe yiBritane, nangona i-UK yayinezixhobo zenyukliya kwaye iArgentina yayingenazo.
Ukulandela uhlaselo olwalukhokelwa yi-US ngo-1991, i-Iraq eyayixhobe ngesiqhelo ayizange ithintelwe ekubambeni imijukujelwa ye-Scud ku-Israel oxhobe ngenyukliya, engazange aphindezele, nangona yayinokuzisebenzisa izixhobo zayo zenyukliya ukutshabalalisa iBaghdad. Kunzima ukucinga ukuba ukwenjenjalo bekuya kuba yingenelo njani kuye nabani na. Ngokucacileyo, izixhobo zenyukliya zase-US azizange zithintele uhlaselo lwabanqolobi kwi-US ye-11 kaSeptemba 2001, kanye njengoko izixhobo zenyukliya zase-UK naseFransi zingakhange zithintele uhlaselo oluphindaphindiweyo lwabanqolobi kuloo mazwe.
Ukuthintela, ngokufutshane, akuthinteli.
Ipateni inzulu kwaye isasazeke ngokwejografi. IFransi exhobe ngenyukliya ayikwazanga ukuyoyisa i-Algerian National Liberation Front engeyiyo eyenyukliya. Izixhobo zenyukliya zaseMelika azizange zithintele emantla ekorea ekubambeni inqanawa yokuqokelela ubuntlola yase-US, i-USS ePueblo, ngowe-1968. Nanamhlanje, eli phenyane lisesezandleni zoMntla Korea.
I-nukes yase-US ayizange ivumele i-China ukuba ifumane iVietnam ukuba iphelise uhlaselo lwayo lwe-Cambodia ngo-1979. Kwaye izixhobo zenyukliya zase-US azizange zithintele i-Iranian Revolutionary Guards ekubambeni oonozakuzaku base-US kwaye bababambe (1979-81), kanye njengoko uloyiko lwezixhobo zenyukliya zase-US zenzanga. 'Ukuxhobisa i-US kunye namahlakani ayo ukunyanzela i-Iraq ukuba irhoxe eKuwait ngaphandle komlo ngo-1990.
In Izixhobo zeNyukliya kunye neDiplomacy yokuNyanzeliswa (2017), izazinzulu zezopolitiko uTodd Sechser noMateyu Fuhrmann bavavanya iingxabano zomhlaba ezingama-348 ezenzeka phakathi ko-1919 no-1995. Basebenzisa uhlalutyo lwamanani ukubona ukuba ngaba amazwe axhobileyo enyukliya aphumelele ngakumbi kunamazwe aqhelekileyo ekunyanzeliseni iintshaba zawo ngexesha leengxabano zemimandla. Babengekho.
Ayiphelelanga apho, kodwa izixhobo zenyukliya azizange zibakhuthaze abo bangabanini bazo ukuba banyuse amabango; ukuba nantoni na, amazwe anjalo ngandlel’ ithile Ngaphantsi baphumelele ekufumaneni indlela yabo. Kwezinye iimeko, uhlalutyo luphantse luhlekise. Ke, phakathi kwamatyala ambalwa kakhulu apho izoyikiso ezivela kwilizwe elinezixhobo zenyukliya zazibhalwe njengenyanzelise umntu ochasayo yayikukunyanzeliswa kwe-US, ngo-1961, ukuba iRiphabhlikhi yaseDominican ibambe unyulo lwedemokhrasi emva kokubulawa kukazwilakhe uRafael Trujillo, ngokunjalo. Imfuno yase-US, ngo-1994, ilandela ukubhukuqa komkhosi waseHaiti, ukuba iikholoneli zaseHaiti zibuyisele uJean-Bertrand Aristide kulawulo. Ngo-1974-75, iChina yenyukliya yanyanzela iPortugal engeyonyukliya ukuba inikezele ibango layo kwiMacau. Le mizekelo ibandakanyiwe kuba ababhali bafuna ngokunyanisekileyo ukuqwalasela zonke iimeko apho ilizwe elinezixhobo zenyukliya lafumana indlela yalo kwi-non-nuclear. Kodwa akukho mkhi-mkhiqizi uzimiseleyo oya kuthi kubanjwe iPortugal okanye iRiphabhlikhi yaseDominican kwizixhobo zenyukliya zase China okanye zase-US.
Konke oku kukwabonisa ukuba ukufunyanwa kwezixhobo zenyukliya yi-Iran okanye iNorth Korea akunakwenzeka ukuba la mazwe akwazi ukunyanzela amanye, nokuba 'izinto ajolise kuzo' zixhobile ngenyukliya okanye izixhobo eziqhelekileyo.
Yinto enye ukugqiba kwelokuba uthintelo lwenyukliya alukhange luthintele, kwaye alubonelelanga ngamandla okunyanzeliswa – kodwa imingcipheko yalo engaqhelekanga idelela ngakumbi.
Okokuqala, ukuthintela ngezixhobo zenyukliya akuthembeki. Ipolisa elixhobe ngobhaka isixhobo senyukliya alinakufane lithintele umphangi: 'Yeka egameni lomthetho, kungenjalo ndiza kusiqhumisa sonke!' Ngokufanayo, ngexesha leMfazwe Yomlomo, iinjengele ze-NATO zakhala ngelithi iidolophu zaseNtshona Jamani zazingaphantsi kweekhilothoni ezimbini ngaphandle - oko kwakuthetha ukuba ukukhusela iYurophu ngezixhobo zenyukliya kuya kuyitshabalalisa, kwaye ke ibango lokuba uMkhosi oBomvu uza kuthintelwa ngeendlela zenyukliya. engakholelekiyo. Isiphumo yaba kukucaciswa kwezixhobo ezincinci, ezichanekileyo ezinokusetyenziswa ngakumbi kwaye, ngenxa yoko, ukuqeshwa kwabo kwimeko yobunzima kuya kuthembeka ngakumbi. Kodwa izixhobo ezisetyenzisiweyo ezisebenzisekayo ngakumbi, kwaye ke zithembeke ngakumbi njengezithintelo, zinoxanduva ngakumbi lokusetyenziswa.
Okwesibini, uthintelo lufuna ukuba iqela leqela ngalinye lihlale lingenabungozi ekuhlaselweni, okanye ubuncinci olo hlaselo lunokuthintelwa kangangoko ixhoba elinokubakho ligcine amandla 'lokubetha okwesibini' lokuziphindezela, elaneleyo ukunqanda uhlaselo olunjalo kwasekuqaleni. Ngokuhamba kwexesha, nangona kunjalo, imijukujelwa yenyukliya iye yachaneka ngakumbi, iphakamisa inkxalabo malunga nokuba sesichengeni kwezi zixhobo kugwayimbo 'lokulwa'. Ngamafutshane, amazwe anenyukliya aye ekwazi ngakumbi ukujolisa utshaba lwawo kwizixhobo zenyukliya ukuze atshabalalise. Kwithiyori egqwethekileyo ye-argot of deterrence theory, oku kubizwa ngokuba semngciphekweni kwe-counterforce, kunye 'nobuthathaka' ngokubhekisele kwizixhobo zenyukliya ekujoliswe kuzo, hayi abemi bayo. Esona siphumo sicacileyo sezixhobo zenyukliya ezisanda zichaneka kunye necandelo 'le-counterforce vulnerability' yethiyori yokuthintela kukwandisa amathuba okuba kugwayimbo lokuqala, ngeli lixa ikwanyusa ingozi yokuba ixhoba elinokubakho, lisoyika isiganeko esinjalo, linokuhendeka ukuba likhuphe ugwayimbo lwangaphambili. ngogwayimbo lwayo lokuqala. Imeko enesiphumo – apho icala ngalinye libona i-advanteji enokwenzeka ekubetheni kuqala – ayizinzanga ngokuyingozi.
Okwesithathu, ithiyori yothintelo ithatha ulwazelelelo oluphezulu kwicala labenzi bezigqibo. Icingela ukuba abo baneminwe kwizivusi zenyukliya bangabadlali abanengqondo abaya kuthi nabo bahlale bezolile kwaye bengenasiphako ngokwasengqondweni phantsi kweemeko ezinoxinzelelo olugqithisileyo. Ikwacingela ukuba iinkokeli ziya kuhlala zilawula imikhosi yazo kwaye, ngaphezu koko, ziya kuhlala zilawula iimvakalelo zabo, zithatha izigqibo ezisekelwe kuphela ekubaleni okupholileyo kweendleko zobuchule kunye neenzuzo. Ithiyori ye-Deterrence igcina, ngokufutshane, ukuba icala ngalinye liya kuyoyikisa ibhulukhwe kwelinye ngethemba leyona miphumo imbi kakhulu, engenakucingelwa, kwaye emva koko iya kuziphatha ngeyona ngqiqo iphezulu kwaye ichanekileyo. Phantse yonke into eyaziwayo malunga neengqondo zabantu ibonisa ukuba oku akukho ngqiqweni.
In Imvana eMnyama kunye neNkowane eNtovu: Uhambo oludlula eYugoslavia (1941), uRebecca West waphawula ukuba: 'Inxalenye yethu kuphela ephilileyo: inxenye yethu kuphela ethanda ulonwabo kunye nemini ende yolonwabo, ifuna ukuphila ukuya kutsho kwiminyaka yama-90 kwaye ife ngoxolo ...' abantu basoloko besenza izinto ngeembono ezingezizo, umsindo, ukuphelelwa lithemba, impambano, inkani, impindezelo, ikratshi kunye/okanye ukuqiniseka ngokungqongqo. Ngaphezu koko, kwiimeko ezithile - njengaxa elinye icala liqinisekile ukuba imfazwe ayinakuphepheka, okanye xa iingcinezelo zokuphepha ukulahlekelwa ubuso zibukhali kakhulu - isenzo esingenangqiqo, esibandakanya esibulalayo, sinokubonakala sifanelekile, singenakuphepheka.
Xa wayalela ukuba kuhlaselwe iZibuko iPearl, umphathiswa wezokhuselo waseJapan wathi: ‘Maxa wambi kuye kufuneke ukuba ubani avale amehlo aze atsibe kwiqonga leTempile yaseKiyomizu [indawo eyaziwayo yokuzibulala]. Ebudeni beMfazwe Yehlabathi Yokuqala, uKaiser Wilhelm II waseJamani wabhala eludinini loxwebhu lwaseburhulumenteni esithi: ‘Kwanokuba siyatshatyalaliswa, iNgilani ubuncinane iya kuphulukana neIndiya.
Ngelixa wayesebunkeleni bakhe, ngeentsuku zokugqibela zeMfazwe yeSibini yeHlabathi, uAdolf Hitler wayalela into awayenethemba lokuba yayiya kutshatyalaliswa ngokupheleleyo iJamani, kuba wayevakalelwa kukuba amaJamani ‘amhlulekile’.
Cinga, ngokunjalo, umongameli wase-US obonisa iimpawu zokugula ngengqondo, kwaye iingxelo zakhe kunye neetweets zihambelana ngendlela eyoyikisayo kunye nesifo sengqondo esixhalabisayo okanye ingqondo yokwenyani. Iinkokeli zelizwe – zixhobe ngenyukliya okanye azinazo – azikhuselekanga kwizigulo zengqondo. Ukanti, ithiyori yokuthintela icinga ngenye indlela.
Okokugqibela, akukho ndlela yokuba iinkokheli zasekuhlaleni okanye zasemkhosini zazi xa ilizwe labo liqokelele izixhobo zokudubula zenyukliya ngokwaneleyo ukwanelisa imfuneko yokuba 'nesithinteli esisebenzayo'. Ngokomzekelo, ukuba elinye icala lizimisele ukutshabalaliswa kuhlaselo, alunakuthintelwa, kungakhathaliseki ukuba kusongelwa impindezelo. Kungenjalo, ukuba elinye icala liqinisekile ngobutshaba belinye, okanye ngokungakhathali ekuphulukaneni nobomi, akukho sixhobo sinokwanela. Ayisiyiyo loo nto kuphela, kodwa okoko nje izixhobo eziqokelelayo zenza imali kwiikontraka zokhuselo, kwaye okoko nje kuyilwa, ukuvelisa kunye nokusasaza 'izizukulwana' ezintsha zezinto zenyukliya eziqhubela phambili imisebenzi, inyani malunga nethiyori yokuthintela iya kuhlala ifihliwe. Nkqu nesibhakabhaka asinasiphelo; amajoni afuna ukubeka izixhobo kwindawo engaphandle.
Kangangokuba izixhobo zenyukliya zikwasebenza ngokomfuziselo, iimfuno zengqondo, ngokubonisa impumelelo yetekhnoloji yesizwe kwaye ngaloo ndlela idlulisa ubuqiniso kwiinkokeli kunye namazwe angakhuselekanga, emva koko, kwakhona, akukho ndlela isengqiqweni yokuseka ubuncinci (okanye i-cap the maximum) ubungakanani besixhobo somntu. Ngaxa lithile, uqhushululu olongezelelweyo luza ngokuchasene nomthetho wokunciphisa imbuyekezo, okanye njengoko uWinston Churchill wabonisayo, ngokulula 'benza inkunkuma iqhume'.
Ukongezelela, ukuthintela ukuziphatha yi-oxymoron. Abafundi bezakwalizwi bayazi ukuba imfazwe yenyukliya ayinakuze ihlangabezane nento ebizwa ngokuba 'yimfazwe nje'. Ngowe-1966, iBhunga lesiBini laseVatican laqukumbela ngelithi: ‘Nasiphi na isenzo semfazwe esijoliswe ekutshatyalalisweni kwezixeko okanye imimandla emikhulu kunye nabemi bazo sisenzo solwaphulo-mthetho kuThixo nakubantu. Ifanele igwetywe ngokuphandle nangokungathandabuzekiyo.' Yaye kwileta eyabhalwa ngabafundisi ngowe-1983, oobhishophu bamaKatolika baseUnited States bongezelela besithi: ‘Esi sigwebo, ngokwembono yethu, sisebenza kwanakukuziphindezela kwezixhobo ezihlasela izixeko eziziintshaba emva kokuba ezethu zibethiwe.’ Bahlabela mgama besithi, ukuba kukho into engafanelekanga ukuyenza, ngoko kukuziphatha okubi ukusongela. Kumyalezo oya kwiNkomfa ye-Vienna ye-2014 kwi-Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons, uPapa uFrancis wachaza ukuba: 'Ukunqandwa kweNyukliya kunye nosongelo lokutshabalalisa okuqinisekisiweyo akunakuba sisiseko sokuziphatha kobuzalwana kunye nokuhlalisana ngokuthula phakathi kwabantu kunye namazwe.'
IBhunga looBhishophu abaManyeneyo bamaWesile lihambela phambili ngakumbi kunoogxa balo bamaKatolika, laqukumbela ngowe-1986 ngelithi: ‘Ukuthintela akumele kuphinde kufumaneke iintsikelelo zeecawa, kwananjengesiqinisekiso sokwexeshana sokugcinwa kwezixhobo zenyukliya.’ Kwi Imfazwe Yobulungisa (1968), ingcaphephe yemigaqo yobuProtestanti uPaul Ramsey yacela abafundi bakhe ukuba bacinge ukuba iingozi zendlela kwisixeko esithile ziye zancitshiswa ngokukhawuleza zaya kutsho ku-zero, emva koko kwafunyaniswa ukuba wonke umntu kwafuneka abophe usana olusandul’ ukuzalwa kwibhampa yemoto nganye.
Mhlawumbi eyona nto yoyikisa kakhulu ngothintelo lwenyukliya ziindlela zakho ezininzi zokusilela. Ngokuchaseneyo noko kucingelwa ngokubanzi, okuncinci okunokwenzeka luhlaselo lwe-'bolt out of the blue' (BOOB). Ngeli xesha, kukho imingcipheko emikhulu eyayanyaniswa nokunyuka kwemfazwe eqhelekileyo, ukusetyenziswa ngengozi okanye okungagunyaziswanga, ukusetyenziswa ngokungekho ngqiqweni (nangona kunokuthiwa ikhona ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya kuya kuba yinto engekho ngqiqweni) okanye izilumkiso ezingeyonyani, ezenzeke ngokoyikisa rhoqo, kwaye zinokukhokelela 'ekuziphindezeleni' kuhlaselo olungazange lwenzeke. Kukwakho 'iingozi zotolo olwaphukileyo' - ukusungulwa ngengozi, ukudubula, ukubiwa okanye ukulahleka kwesixhobo senyukliya - kunye neemeko apho iziganeko ezifana nomhlambi wamarhanisi, ukugqabhuka kwemibhobho yerhasi okanye iikhowudi zekhompyutha ezingalunganga zitolikwe njenge. ukuqaliswa kwe-missile enobutshaba.
Oku kungasentla kuchaza kuphela ezinye zeentsilelo kunye neengozi ezithe ngqo ezibangelwa kukunqanda, i-fulcrum yemfundiso elawula izixhobo zenyukliya, isoftware, ukusasazwa, ukuqokelela kunye nokunyuka. Ukuphelisa ingcamango-ukumelana nezakwalizwi-yokunqanda akuyi kuba lula, kodwa akukho kuphila phantsi kwesoyikiso sentshabalalo yehlabathi. Njengoko imbongi uTS Eliot yakha yabhala, ngaphandle kokuba ungaphezulu kwentloko yakho, wazi njani ukuba ubude bakho? Kwaye xa kufikwa kuthintelo lwenyukliya, sonke siphezu kweentloko zethu.
