Oku kuPhumelela kweNyukliya Kubeka iHlabathi esichengeni

Ngexesha lokukhula kwengxabano phakathi kwamagunya enyukliya - iRashiya kunye ne-NATO eYurophu, kunye ne-US, North Korea, kunye ne-China e-Asia - iWashington iye yaphucula i-arsenal yayo yezixhobo zenyukliya ukuze idale, ngokutsho kwezazinzulu ezintathu eziphambili zaseMelika, "kanye yintoni enye. ungalindela ukubona, ukuba ilizwe elixhobe ngenyukliya liceba ukuba namandla okulwa kwaye liphumelele imfazwe yenyukliya ngokuhlutha izixhobo ngogwayimbo lokuqala. ”

Ukubhala kwi I-Bulletin ye-Atomic Scientists, uHans Kristensen, umlawuli weProjekthi yoLwazi lweNyukliya ye-Federation of American Scientists, uMateyu McKinzie weNational Resources Defense Council, kunye ne-physicist kunye ne-ballistic missile ingcali uTheodore Postol ugqiba ngelithi "Ngaphantsi kwesikhuselo senkqubo yolwandiso lobomi obungekho mthethweni. ,” umkhosi wase-US uye wawandisa kakhulu “amandla okubulala” kwiintloko zawo zemfazwe kangangokuba “ngoku unokutshabalalisa zonke iisilo ze-ICBM zaseRashiya.”

Uhlaziyo - yinxalenye yolawulo luka-Obama lwe-1 yetriliyoni yezigidi zeedola zenyukliya yaseMelika - ivumela iWashington ukuba itshabalalise izixhobo zenyukliya zaseRussia ezisekwe emhlabeni, ngelixa igcina iipesenti ezingama-80 zemfazwe yase-US kwindawo yokugcina. Ukuba iRashiya ikhethe ukuziphindezela, iya kuncitshiswa ibe luthuthu.

Ukusilela Kokucinga

Nayiphi na ingxoxo ngemfazwe yenyukliya idibana neengxaki ezinkulu eziliqela.

Okokuqala, kunzima ukucinga okanye ukuqonda ukuba kuya kuthetha ntoni kubomi bokwenyani. Sibe nemfazwe enye kuphela ebandakanya izixhobo zenyukliya- ukutshatyalaliswa kwe-Hiroshima kunye neNagasaki ngo-1945- kwaye inkumbulo yezo ziganeko iye yaphela iminyaka. Enoba kuyintoni na, iziqhushumbisi ezibini ezithambise ezo zixeko zaseJapan azinanto yakwenza nokubulawa kwezixhobo zenyukliya zezi mini.

Ibhombu yaseHiroshima yaqhushumba ngamandla eekilotons ezili-15, okanye kt. Ibhombu yaseNagasaki yayinamandla ngakumbi, malunga ne-18 kt. Phakathi kwabo, babulala abantu abangaphezu kwama-215,000. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, esona sixhobo sixhaphakileyo senyukliya kwi-arsenal yase-US namhlanje, i-W76, inamandla adubulayo e-100 kt. Ilandelayo ixhaphake kakhulu, i-W88, ipakisha i-475-kt punch.

Enye ingxaki kukuba uninzi loluntu lucinga ukuba imfazwe yenyukliya ayinakwenzeka kuba omabini amacala aya kutshatyalaliswa. Lo ngumbono osemva komgaqo-nkqubo we-Mutually Assured Destruction, obizwa ngokufanelekileyo ngokuthi “MAD.”

Kodwa iMAD ayisiyomfundiso yasemkhosini yase-US. Uhlaselo "lokuqala" luhlala lungundoqo kucwangciso lomkhosi wase-US, kude kube kutshanje. Nangona kunjalo, kwakungekho siqinisekiso sokuba uhlaselo olunjalo luya kukhubaza umchasi ukuba akakwazi - okanye angafuni, ngenxa yemiphumo yokutshatyalaliswa ngokupheleleyo - ukuziphindezela.

Isicwangciso-qhinga esisemva kogwayimbo lokuqala – ngamanye amaxesha olubizwa ngokuba luhlaselo “lokulwa” – asikokutshabalalisa amaziko abantu abachasayo, kodwa kukuphelisa izixhobo zenyukliya zamanye amacala, okanye uninzi lwazo. Iinkqubo zokuthintela imijukujelwa ziya kuthi ke zithintele uqhankqalazo olubuthathaka lokuziphindezela.

Impumelelo yobugcisa eyenza ukuba oku kwenzeke ngequbuliso yinto ebizwa ngokuba yi "super-fuze", evumela ukutshiswa ngokuthe ngqo kwentloko yemfazwe. Ukuba injongo kukuqhushumba isixeko, ukuchaneka okunjalo akuyomfuneko. Kodwa ukukhupha isisele somjukujelwa esomeleziweyo kufuna intloko yemfazwe ukuze isebenzise amandla obuncinci obungama-10,000 eeponti nge-intshi nganye yesikwere kwithagethi.

Ukuza kuthi ga kwinkqubo yophuculo ka-2009, ekuphela kwendlela yokwenza oko yayikukusebenzisa awona anamandla kakhulu - kodwa alinganiselwe ngamanani - i-W88 warhead. Ifakwe i-super-fuze, nangona kunjalo, i-W76 encinci ngoku inokuwenza umsebenzi, ikhulula i-W88 kwezinye iithagethi.

Ngokwemveli, imijukujelwa esekwe emhlabeni ichanekile ngakumbi kunemijukujelwa esekwe elwandle, kodwa ezokuqala zisengozini ngakumbi kuqhankqalazo lokuqala kunolo lwamva, kuba iinkwili zilungile ekuzifihleni. I-super-fuze entsha ayikonyusi ukuchaneka kwemijukujelwa yangaphantsi kolwandle i-Trident II, kodwa iyenza loo nto ngokuchaneka kwendawo apho isixhobo siqhushumba. “Kwimeko ye-100-kt Trident II intloko yemfazwe,” kubhala izazinzulu ezithathu, “amandla abulalayo aphindwe kathathu kumandla enyukliya asetyenziswa kuwo.”

Phambi kokuba i-super-fuze isetyenziswe, kuphela ngama-20 epesenti ye-subs yase-US ekwaziyo ukutshabalalisa ii-silos eziphinda zinyanzeliswe. Namhlanje, bonke banaloo mandla.

Imijukujelwa ye-Trident II ihlala ithwala ukusuka kwiimfazwe ezine ukuya kwezintlanu, kodwa inokwandisa ukuya kuthi ga kwisibhozo. Ngelixa umjukujelwa ukwazi ukubamba iimfazwe ezininzi njenge-12, olo lungelelwaniso luya kwaphula izivumelwano zangoku zenyukliya. Iinkwili zase-US ngoku zisebenzisa iintloko zemfazwe ezingama-890, apho ezingama-506 zii-W76 kunye nama-384 zii-W88.

I-ICBMs ezisekelwe kumhlaba ziyi-Minuteman III, nganye ixhobe ngeemfazwe ezintathu - i-400 iyonke - ukusuka kwi-300 kt ukuya kwi-500 kt nganye. Kukwakho nemijukujelwa yenyukliya enencam yomoya kunye nolwandle kunye neebhombu. Imijukujelwa yokuhamba ngenqanawa yaseTomahawk esandul' ukubetha iSyria inokumiselwa ukuba ithwale intloko yemfazwe yenyukliya.

Umsantsa weTekhnoloji

I-super-fuze ikwanyusa ukubakho kongquzulwano lwenyukliya ngengozi.

Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, ihlabathi likwazile ukuyiphepha imfazwe yenyukliya, nangona ngexesha lentlekele ye-missile yaseCuba yowe-1962 yasondela ngokudakumba. Kuye kwakho ezininzi iziganeko ezoyikisayo xa imikhosi yase-US kunye neSoviet yaya kwisilumkiso esipheleleyo ngenxa yemifanekiso ye-radar ephosakeleyo okanye iteyiphu yokuvavanya umntu awayecinga ukuba iyinyani. Ngelixa umkhosi uzijongela phantsi ezi ziganeko, owayesakuba nguNobhala wezoKhuselo UWilliam Perry Uxoxa ngelithi lithamsanqa ukuba siye saluphepha utshintshiselwano ngenyukliya – kwaye ukubakho kwemfazwe yenyukliya kukhulu namhlanje kunokuba kwakunjalo ekuphakameni kweMfazwe yoMlomo.

Ngokuyinxenye, oku kungenxa yomsantsa weteknoloji phakathi kwe-US neRashiya.

NgoJanuwari 1995, iradar yaseRashiya yokulumkisa kwangethuba kuSingasiqithi weKola yathabatha inqwelomoya evela kwisiqithi saseNorway ekhangeleka ngathi ijolise eRashiya. Ngapha koko, i-rocket yayisingise kwi-North Pole, kodwa iradar yaseRussia yayiphawula njenge-missile ye-Trident II evela kuMntla we-Atlantiki. Le meko yayisengqiqweni. Ngelixa uhlaselo lokuqala loqhankqalazo lunombono wokusungula inani elikhulu lemijukujelwa, abanye bafuna ukudutyulwa kwentloko enkulu yemfazwe kwindawo ekujoliswe kuyo malunga neekhilomitha ezingama-800 ukuphakama. Ukubetha kwemitha yemitha ye-electromagnetic eveliswa lugqabhuko-dubulo lunokumfamekisa okanye luqhwalelise iinkqubo zerada kwindawo ebanzi. Oko kungalandelwa ngogwayimbo lokuqala.

Ngelo xesha, iintloko ezipholileyo zazilawula yaye amaRashiya arhoxa, kodwa kangangemizuzu embalwa iwotshi yemini yentshabalalo yasondela ezinzulwini zobusuku.

Ngokutsho I-Bulletin ye-Atomic Scientists, ingxaki yowe-1995 ibonisa ukuba iRashiya ayinayo “inkqubo yokulumkisa kwangaphambili ngesathelayithi esekelwe emajukujukwini nesebenzayo.” Endaweni yoko, iMoscow igxile ekwakhiweni kweenkqubo ezisekelwe emhlabeni ezinika abantu baseRussia ixesha elingaphantsi kwesilumkiso kunesekwe kwisathelayithi. Oko kuthetha ukuba ngelixa i-US yayiza kuba nemizuzu engama-30 yexesha lokulumkisa ukuba iphande ukuba ngaba uhlaselo lwenzeka ngokwenene, amaRashiya aya kuba nemizuzu eyi-15 okanye ngaphantsi.

Oko, ngokutsho kwephephancwadi, kusenokuthetha ukuba “iinkokeli zaseRashiya azinakwenza nto ingako ngaphandle kokudlulisela igunya lenyukliya kwangaphambili kumanqanaba asezantsi omyalelo,” ngenkankulu imeko ebiya kuba kukhuseleko lwelizwe nakweliphi na ilizwe.

Okanye, kulo mbandela, ihlabathi.

A kwamva nje yafumanisa ukuba imfazwe yenyukliya phakathi kweIndiya nePakistan kusetyenziswa izixhobo ezilingana neHiroshima iya kuvelisa ubusika benyukliya obunokwenza kube nzima ukulima ingqolowa eRashiya naseKhanada kuze kucuthwe imvula yaseAsia nge-10 ekhulwini. Umphumo uya kuba kukufa kwabantu abafikelela kwi-100 lezigidi ngenxa yendlala. Khawucinge ukuba isiphumo siya kuba yintoni ukuba izixhobo bezinobukhulu obusetyenziswa yiRashiya, iChina, okanye i-US

Kubantu baseRussia, ukuphuculwa kwemijukujelwa esekwe elwandle yase-US kunye ne-super-fuze iya kuba luphuhliso olubi. "Ngokutshintshela amandla kwiinqanawa ezingaphantsi kwamanzi ezinokufudukela kwindawo yokuqalisa imijukujelwa kufutshane noko bekujoliswe kuko kunemijukujelwa esekwe emhlabeni," ezi nzulu-lwazi zithathu zaqukumbela ngelithi, "umkhosi wase-US uzuze amandla amakhulu okwenza uqhankqalazo lokuqala olumangalisayo ngokuchasene ne-ICBM yaseRussia. iisililo.”

Inkwili yodidi lwase-Ohio yase-US ixhobe ngemijukujelwa engama-24 ye-Trident II, ithwele iintloko zemfazwe ezili-192. Imijukujelwa inokundululwa ngaphantsi komzuzu.

AmaRashiya namaTshayina aneenkwili ezidubula imijukujelwa ngokunjalo, kodwa azininzi kangako, kwaye ezinye sele ziphelelwe lixesha. I-US ikwahlwayele iilwandle kunye neelwandle zehlabathi ngothungelwano lwezinzwa ukugcina umkhondo wezo subs. Nakweyiphi na imeko, ngaba amaRussia okanye amaTshayina angaziphindezela ukuba ebesazi ukuba i-US isawugcinile uninzi lomkhosi wayo wenyukliya? Bejongene nokukhetha ukuzibulala kwesizwe okanye ukubamba umlilo wabo, banokukhetha owokuqala.

Enye into kule nkqubo yokuphucula imeko yeRussia neTshayina sisigqibo solawulo luka-Obama sokubeka iinkqubo zokulwa nemijukujelwa eYurophu naseAsia, kunye nokuthumela iinkqubo zokulwa nemijukujelwa ezisekelwe kwiinqanawa zase-Aegis kunxweme lwePasifiki naseAtlantiki. Ngokwembono yaseMoscow - kunye neBeijing ngokunjalo - ezo zithinteli zilapho ukuze zifunxe imijukujelwa embalwa enokuthi iphoswe lugwayimbo lokuqala.

Enyanisweni, iinkqubo ze-antimissile zihle kakhulu. Nje ukuba zifuduke kwiibhodi zokuzoba, ukusebenza kwabo okuyingozi kwehla kakhulu. Enyanisweni, uninzi lwabo alukwazi ukubetha icala elibanzi leshedi. Kodwa elo asilothuba lokuba amaTshayina namaRussia angakwazi ukulithatha.

Ethetha kwiForam yamazwe ngamazwe yaseSt. Petersburg ngoJuni 2016, uMongameli waseRashiya uValdimir Putin wamangalela ukuba iinkqubo ze-antimissile zase-US ePoland naseRomania azijoliswanga e-Iran, kodwa eRashiya naseChina. "Isoyikiso sase-Irani asikho, kodwa iinkqubo zokukhusela imijukujelwa ziyaqhubeka nokumiswa." Wongeze wathi, "inkqubo yokukhusela imijukujelwa yenye yezona zinto zinamandla okuhlaselayo emkhosini."

Ukucalulwa kwezivumelwano zeArms

Ingozi apha kukuba izivumelwano zezixhobo ziya kuqalisa ukuqhawuka ukuba amazwe athatha isigqibo sokuba asengozini ngequbuliso. Kubantu baseRussia kunye namaTshayina, esona sisombululo silula kwimpumelelo yaseMelika kukwakha imijukujelwa emininzi kunye neentloko zemfazwe, kwaye izivumelwano ziya kutshatyalaliswa.

Umjukujelwa omtsha wokuhamba ngenqanawa waseRussia unokucinezela iSivumelwano soMkhosi weNyukliya woLuhlu oluPhakathi, kodwa ikwayimpendulo yendalo kwinto eyiyo, ngokwembono yaseMoscow, inkqubela-phambili eyothusayo yezobuchwepheshe eyenziwa yi-US Ukuba ulawulo luka-Obama lwalusirhoxisile isigqibo sika-2002 sikaGeorge W. Bush. Ulawulo lokurhoxa ngokuzimeleyo kwiSivumelwano soMjukujulwa se-Anti-Ballistic, uhambo olutsha ngenqanawa ngengazange lumiselwe.

Kukho inani lamanyathelo akhawulezileyo anokuthi athathwe yi-US kunye namaRussia ukuze anciphise uxinzelelo olukhoyo. Okokuqala, ukususa izixhobo zenyukliya kwimo yazo yokuqalisa iinwele kuya kunciphisa ngoko nangoko ukubakho kwemfazwe yenyukliya ngengozi. Oko kunokulandelwa sisibhambathiso se "Akusetyenziswanga kuqala" yezixhobo zenyukliya.

Ukuba oku akwenzeki, ngokuqinisekileyo kuya kubangela ukuba kukhawuleziswe umkhosi wezandla zenyukliya. “Andazi ukuba yonke le nto iza kuphela njani,” utshilo uPutin kubameli baseSt. “Into endiyaziyo kukuba kuza kufuneka sizikhusele.”

Umgaqo-nkqubo waMazwe angaPhandle ekuGxininisa kuwo umbhali wemihlathi uConn Hallinan unokufundwa apha www.dispatchesfromtheedgeblog.wordpress.com kwaye www.middleempireseries.wordpress.com. Ishicilelwe kwakhona imvume evela Umgaqo-nkqubo weNgaphandle.