Ngu-Marc Pilisuk, Okt, 24, 2017
Ngexesha lokuzila okanye uloyiko lwezinto ezisongelayo, ingqondo yomntu iyakwazi ukukhanyela kunye nokungahoyi iingozi ezinokubakho. UMongameli uTrump uphakamise ithemba lokuya kwimfazwe yenyukliya kunye neNyakatho Korea. Kubalulekile ukuba abanye bethu baphikise oku. Kwimfazwe yenyukliya kukho ukuqhuma, umlilo kunye nefuthe lemitha kwaye akukho baphenduli bokuqala okanye iziseko zoncedo zokunceda abasindileyo. Eli lixesha lokujongana nokuthintela okungacingekiyo.
Zixhobo ze nyukliya
Kude kufike ukuqhushumba kwebhombu ye-athomu, imfazwe yayingenaso isiphelo, ngalo lonke ixesha, ukuqhubeka kwabantu okanye ukoyikisa ukuqhubeka kobomi ngokwabo. Iibhombu zeathom eziwe eHiroshima naseNagasaki zivelise okona kubulala kwabantu abaninzi kwangoko kwizixhobo ezizezinye ezaziwayo. Kwiinyanga ezimbini ukuya kwezine zokuqala emva kokuqhushumisa, iziphumo ezibi zokuqhushumba kwebhombu yeathom kwabulala abantu abangama-90,000-146,000 eHiroshima kunye nama-39,000-80,000 eNagasaki; phantse isiqingatha sokufa kwabantu kwisixeko ngasinye senzeke ngosuku lokuqala.
Isongelo sezixhobo zenyukliya siye sanda. Le nyaniso ichazwe nguMongameli uKennedy:
Namhlanje, wonke umntu okhoyo kwesi sijikelezi-langa kufuneka acinge ngemini apho le planethi ingasayi kuhlala khona. Yonke indoda, umfazi, kunye nomntwana uhlala phantsi kwenkemba yenyukliya yaseDamocles, exhonywe ngumkhono wentambo, ekwazi ukunqunyulwa nangaliphi na ixesha ngengozi okanye ngokungalunganga okanye ubuhlanya.[i]
Owayengunobhala wezomkhosi uWilliam J. Perry wathi, "Andikaze ndoyike ukuqhushumbiswa kwenyukliya kunangoku-Kukho amathuba angaphezu kwama-50 eepesenti kuqhankqalazo lwenyukliya kwiithagethi zase-US kwisithuba seminyaka elishumi."[ii] Ingozi ze-apocalyptic ezinje, esaziyo ukuba zikho kodwa silihoyile, qhubeka unefuthe kuthi. Basityhalela kude kunxibelelwano lwexesha elide kwiplanethi yethu, besicinezela ukuba siphilele umzuzwana ngokungathi umzuzu ngamnye ungowokugqibela.[iii]
Ukuqwalaselwa koluntu ngoku kugxile ekuhlaselweni sisixhobo senyukliya ngabanqolobi. Umbutho weRAND uqhube uhlalutyo lokujonga iimpembelelo zohlaselo lobunqolobi olubandakanya ukuqhushumba kwenyukliya kwe-10-kiloton kwizibuko laseLong Beach, eCalifornia.[iv] Iseti yezixhobo zokuxela kwangaphambili zisetyenziselwe ukuvavanya iziphumo zexesha elizayo kunye nexesha elide. Iqukumbele ngelithi akukho mmandla wendawo okanye isizwe ekulungeleyo ukujongana nesoyikiso esinokubakho sesixhobo senyukliya esiziswe e-US ngaphakathi kwinqanawa yesikhongozeli. I-Long Beach lelona zibuko lesithathu lixakekileyo emhlabeni, phantse i-30% yazo zonke izinto zokungenisa kunye nokuthumela kwelinye ilizwe e-US. Ingxelo iqaphele ukuba isixhobo senyukliya esidubuleke kwisikhongozeli sokuhambisa siza kwenza amakhulu amawaka eekhilomitha kwindawo ekuhlalwa kuyo kungenakuhlalwa.Ukuqhushumba okunjalo bekuya kuba neempembelelo zoqoqosho ezingazange zibonwe kwilizwe liphela nakwilizwe liphela. Njengomzekelo omnye, ingxelo iqaphele ukuba iindawo zokucoca ioyile ezininzi ezikufuphi ziya kutshatyalaliswa zigqibe ukubonelelwa kwepetroli kuNxweme oluseNtshona kwiintsuku nje ezimbalwa. Oku kungashiya amagosa esixeko ukuba ajongane nokunqongophala kwangoko kwepetroli kunye nobukho obunamandla bembambano yoluntu. Iziphumo zokuqhambuka ziya kuhamba kunye nezaqhwithi zomlilo kunye nokuwa okungapheliyo kwe-radioactive, konke oku kunegalelo ekuweni kweziseko zophuhliso lwasekhaya. Iimpembelelo kuqoqosho lwehlabathi nazo zinokuba yintlekele ngenxa yezizathu ezibini: okokuqala, ukubaluleka kwezoqoqosho kuthungelwano lokuhanjiswa kweenqanawa, oluya kuthintelwa kakhulu lolo hlaselo, kwaye okwesibini, ubu-ethe-ethe obubhalwe kakuhle beenkqubo zemali zehlabathi.[v]
Ngokwimigangatho yangoku ukuqhushumba kweekiloton ezilishumi kumela isampuli yamandla amakhulu ezikhali zenyukliya ngoku kwindawo yokugcina amazwe. Kunzima nokuba nomfanekiso ngqondweni wokuba isitrayikhi esikhulu senyukliya singathetha ntoni. Omnye owayenguNobhala Wezomkhosi, uRobert McNamara ukhumbula amava akhe ngexesha lengxubakaxaka yemikhosi yaseCuba xa umhlaba wasondela kutshintshiselwano ngezixhobo zenyukliya ezasungulwa yi-US kunye neSoviet Union ngokuchasene. Kwisilumkiso sakhe esingacacanga kwiminyaka emininzi kamva uMcNamara wakhankanya ingxelo ngooGqirha bamazwe ngaMazwe ngokuThintela iMfazwe yeNyukliya, echaza iziphumo zesixhobo esinye se-1-megaton:
Kwi-zero yomhlaba, ukuqhuma kudala i-crater 300 yeenyawo kwaye inzulu ye-1,200 iinyawo. Kwimzuzwana nje omnye, umoya ojikeleza ngokwawo uphumela kwibhola yomlilo engaphezu kwesiqingatha semitha ububanzi. Umphezulu webhola yomlilo ukhanyisa phantse kathathu ukukhanya kunye nobushushu bendawo ethelekisekayo yelanga, ikhupha imizuzwana yonke impilo yonke apha ngezantsi kwaye ibala ngaphandle ngesantya sokukhanya, ibangela ukutshisa okukhulu kwangoko ebantwini phakathi kweekhilomitha ezintathu ukuya kwezithathu. . Ukuqhuma komoya oxineneyo kufikelela kumgama oziimayile ezintathu ngemizuzwana ye-12, iifektri ezicekeceke kunye nezakhiwo zorhwebo. Umdaka oqhutywa yimimoya ye-250 mph ubulala abantu kwindawo yonke. Ubuncinci iipesenti ze-50 zabantu abendawo bafa kwangoko, ngaphambi kwengozi evela kwimisebe okanye isikhululo somlilo esikhulayo.
Ukuba uhlaselo lwe-Twin Towers lubandakanye ibhombu yenyukliya ye-20-megaton, amaza okugqabhuza ngewadlula nayo yonke inkqubo yangaphantsi komhlaba. Ukuya kuthi ga kumgama oziikhilomitha ezilishumi elinesihlanu ukusuka kumdaka ongazukubaleka obonakalayo, ocetyiswa yimpembelelo yokufuduswa kwabantu, ngewukwandisile ukwenzakala. Phantse imililo eyahlukeneyo ye-200,000 iya kuba ivelise isivunguvungu somlilo ngamaqondo obushushu afikelela kuma-1,500 degrees. Ibhombu yenyukliya itshabalalisa ilaphu lezinto zokuhambisa amanzi, ukutya, ipetroli, izithuthi, kunye nezombane. Umonakalo wemitha uyonakalisa kwaye wonakalise izinto eziphilayo zeminyaka ye-240,000.[vi]
Akukho sizathu sokukholelwa ukuba ukuhlaselwa yinyukliya kuya kubandakanya kuphela isixhobo esinjalo. Ngapha koko, imifanekiso elapha ngasentla yibhombu yenyukliya ephantsi kakhulu kwintshabalalo kunakwimibhobho emininzi ekhoyo ngoku kwisimo sokulumkisa. Ezi zixhobo zikhulu ziyakwazi oko uGeorge Kennan akuqwalasele njengobukhulu bentshabalalo njengokujongela phantsi ukuqonda okungqiqweni.[vii] Iibhombu ezinje, kunye nezinye ezisonakalisa ngakumbi, ziqulathwe kwimfazwe yokuphosa, uninzi olunakho ukuhambisa imfazwe emininzi.
Emva kokuwa kweSoviet Union, izixhobo zenyukliya ezingaphezulu koko bekuya kufuneka ukutshabalalisa bonke abantu behlabathi zincitshisiwe. Nangona kunjalo, izixhobo zenyukliya ezingama-31,000 zisasele emhlabeni — uninzi lwazo ingamaMelika okanye amaRashiya, manani ambalwa aphethwe yiUnited Kingdom, France ne China, India, Pakistan ne Israel. Ukusilela ekupheliseni ukungqubana kwemfazwe yenyukliya phakathi kweRussia ne-US kushiya la mazwe mabini ngaphezulu kwe-2,000 yeemfazwe zenyukliya ezikwisimo sokuphapha. Ezi zinokumiliselwa kwimizuzu nje embalwa kwaye eyona njongo iphambili ihlala kukutshatyalaliswa kwemikhosi yenyukliya yecala elichasayo, izibonelelo zeshishini, kunye nobunkokeli kwezopolitiko / kwezomkhosi.[viii] Ngoku sinesakhono sokutshabalalisa, ngalo lonke ixesha, wonke umntu, lonke udaka lwengca, nayo yonke into ephilayo evelile kulo mhlaba. Kodwa ngaba indlela esicinga ngayo ivele ukuze sikwazi ukuthintela oku kungenzeki?
Izandi zethu kufuneka ziviwe. Okokuqala, singabongoza iinkokheli zethu ukuba zenze uTrump ukuba acime izoyikiso zemfazwe yenyukliya, nokuba kungokusebenzisa iiflethi okanye uxinzelelo kubacebisi bakhe bezomkhosi. Okwesibini, ukuba siyasinda okomnye wemisebenzi ebaluleke kakhulu ukuvimba izixhobo zenyukliya. Iinyuksi akufuneki zihlolwe kwisivuno esipheleleyo ukuze ibe nokuthintela. Ukuphuculwa kwamandla okutshabalalisa kukhokelele kugqatso lwenyukliya.
Ukuphuculwa, ngokwe-CBO kuya kubiza i-$ 400 yezigidigidi ngokukhawuleza ukusuka kwi-1.25 ukuya kwi-$ 1.58 trillion kwiminyaka engamashumi amathathu. Ukuphuculwa kwezixhobo zenyukliya ezilungiselelwe ukusetyenziswa kwendawo yedabi kuya kucela umngeni kwezinye izizwe ukuba zizifumane kwaye zimeme umqobo wokusebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya ukuba zaphulwe. Ngoku lixesha lokunyanzelisa kwiCongress yethu ukuba kutshitshiswe izixhobo zenyukliya kuhlahlo-lwabiwo mali lukazwelonke. Oku kuyakuthenga ixesha lokuphilisa iplanethi kunye noluntu oluphantsi koxinzelelo olunzulu.
Ucaphulo
[i] UKennedy, JF (1961, Septemba). Idilesi yendawo kawonke-wonke. IZiko leMiller, iYunivesithi yaseVirginia, iCharlottesville, eVirginia. Ifunyenwe kwi-http: //millercenter.org/president/speeches/detail/5741
[ii] McNamara, RS (2005). Apocalypse Kungekudala. Imagazini yePolisi yaNgaphandle. Kubuyiselwa http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=2829
[iii] UMacy, JR (1983). Ukuphelelwa lithemba kunye namandla obuqu kwiminyaka yobukrelekrele. IPhiladelphia, PA: Umbutho omtsha.
[iv] UMeade, uC. Kunye noMolander, R. (2005). Ukuhlalutya iimpembelelo zoqoqosho kuhlaselo lobunqolobi kwintlekele yeLong Beach. I-RAND Corporation. I-W11.2 Ibuyisiwe kwi http://birenheide.com/sra/2005AM/program/singlesession.php3?sessid=W11
http://www.ci.olympia.wa.us/council/Corresp/NPTreportTJJohnsonMay2005.pdf
[v] Ibid.
[vi] IKomiti yezeNzululwazi ngolwazi lweeRadiation (1962). Iziphumo zeBom elinamashumi amabini Megaton. ICinga leDyunivesithi eNtsha: Intwasahlobo, i-24-32.
[vii] Kennan, GF (1983). Ukuqotywa kweNyukliya: Ubudlelwane beSoviet America kwiminyaka yenyukliya. ENew York: IPantheon.
[viii] Inkwenkwezi, S. (2008). Izixhobo zenyukliya eziPhakamileyo zoPhakamileyo: Umngcipheko oLityelweyo. I-SGR (Inzululwazi ngoXanduva lweHlabathi) Incwadana yeendaba, No.36, Ibuyisiwe kwi http://www.sgr.org.uk/publications/sgr-newsletter-no-36
* Iinxalenye ezikhutshiwe Ulwakhiwo olufihliweyo lobundlobongela: Ngubani oxhamla ubundlobongela kwihlabathi kunye nemfazwe NguMarc Pilisuk noJennifer Achord Rountree. ENew York, NY: Uphononongo lwanyanga zonke, 2015.
UMarc Pilisuk, Ph.D.
Unjingalwazi Emeritus, kwiDyunivesithi yaseCalifornia
Icandelo leyunivesithi, iSybrook University
I-Ph 510-526-1788
Enkosi Kelisa Ball ngoncedo lokuhlela kunye nophando
http://marcpilisuk.com/bio.html
