NguRichard E. Rubenstein, Transcend Media Service, Septemba 5, 2022
Ukuqala kwemfazwe yaseRusso-Ukrainian ngoFebruwari 2022 yenza umdlalo wenguqu esele iqhubeka kwixesha elitsha neliyingozi kakhulu lemfazwe yehlabathi. Imfazwe ngokwayo ibingumcimbi waseNtshona, onomdla ophambili kumaqela asondeleyo kunye nabanikezeli be-Ukrainian baseYurophu naseMntla Melika. Kodwa yaqhambuka kwimeko yobudlelwane obuwohlokayo ngokukhawuleza phakathi kwe-United States, eqhubeka nokubanga i-hegemony yehlabathi, kunye neentshaba zayo zangaphambili zeMfazwe ebandayo, iRussia neTshayina. Ngenxa yoko, ungquzulwano lwengingqi olunokuba lusonjululwe mhlawumbi ngothethathethwano oluqhelekileyo okanye iingxoxo zokusonjululwa kweengxaki phakathi kwamaqela asondeleyo luye lwaba lukhuni, kungekho zisombululo zangoko zibonakalayo.
Okwexeshana, ubuncinci, umzabalazo phakathi kweRussia neUkraine uqinise ubudlelwane phakathi kwe-United States neYurophu, ngelixa uqinisa indima ephambili ye-US kobo “buqabane”. Ngelixa amaqela kwinto abanye abayibiza ngokuba “yiMfazwe Yomlomo entsha” enyusa inkcitho yawo yasemkhosini kunye nentshiseko yeengcamango, abanye abanqwenela ukufumana iwonga laMandla aMakhulu anjengeTurkey, iIndiya, i-Iran, kunye neJapan baqhubela kuncedo lwethutyana. Ngeli xesha, imfazwe yaseUkraine yaqala ukuthatha imeko "yengxabano ekhenkcezileyo," kunye neRussia yaphumelela ekuthatheni indawo uninzi lwengingqi yaseDonbas ethetha isiRashiya, ngelixa i-US yathululela iibhiliyoni zeedola kwizixhobo zobuchwephesha obuphezulu, ubukrelekrele kunye noqeqesho. kwindawo yokugcina izixhobo zolawulo lwaseKiev.
Njengoko kuqhele ukwenzeka, ukuvela kweepateni ezintsha zongquzulwano kwabakhwankqisa abahlalutyi, izixhobo zabo zethiyori ziyilelwe ukuchaza iindlela zangaphambili zomzabalazo. Ngenxa yoko, imeko etshintshileyo ayizange iqondwe kakuhle kwaye iinzame zokusombulula impixano zazingekho kwaphela. Ngokubhekiselele kwimfazwe yaseUkraine, umzekelo, ubulumko obuqhelekileyo yayikukuba "ingxabano eyonzakalisayo," kungekho qela likwaziyo ukuphumelela uloyiso olupheleleyo kodwa icala ngalinye libandezeleka kakhulu, liya kwenza olu hlobo lwengxabano "lulungele ukusonjululwa". uthethathethwano. (bona I. William Zartman, Amaqhinga okukhuthaza ukuvuthwa). Kodwa kwakukho iingxaki ezimbini ngolu qulunqo:
- Iindlela ezintsha zemfazwe elinganiselweyo ebonisa ukusetyenziswa okulinganiselweyo kwezixhobo zobugcisa obuphezulu, ngelixa zibulala okanye zingxwelerha amawaka kwaye zibangela umonakalo omkhulu kwipropathi kunye nokusingqongileyo, zisehlisa ubuninzi bokubandezeleka obekunokulindeleka kwimfazwe phakathi kwabamelwane. Ngoxa ummandla weDonbas uqhuma, abathengi badla eKiev. Ngelixa iingxwelerha zaseRussia zanda kwaye iNtshona ibeka izohlwayo kulawulo lukaPutin, abemi beRFSR babenandipha ubomi obunoxolo nobunempumelelo.
Ngaphezu koko, ngokuchasene ne-propaganda yaseNtshona, ngaphandle kwezinto ezimbalwa ezibuhlungu, iRashiya ayizange ihlasele abantu abaninzi baseUkraine, kwaye abantu base-Ukraine abazange baqalise uhlaselo oluninzi kwiithagethi ngaphandle kweDonbas. Oku kuzibamba kumacala omabini (ukungajongeli phantsi ukoyikeka okubangelwa ngamawakawaka okufa ngokungeyomfuneko) kubonakala kunciphise “ukwenzakala” okukhulu okufunekayo ukuvelisa “umngxunya ombi.” Le ntshukumo isiya kwinto enokuthiwa "yimfazwe engaphelelanga" inokubonwa njengophawu lwenguquko yasemkhosini eyaqala e-US emva kweMfazwe yaseVietnam kunye nokutshintshwa kwamajoni abizelwe "ngamavolontiya" kunye nokutshintshwa kwemikhosi ephantsi ngobuchwepheshe obuphezulu. izixhobo zomoya, iinkanunu nezaselwandle. Okumangalisayo kukuba, ukunciphisa ukubandezeleka okunganyamezelekiyo okubangelwa yimfazwe kuye kwavula umnyango wemfazwe njengenxalenye enyamezelekayo, enokubakho ngokusisigxina yomgaqo-nkqubo wamazwe angaphandle waMandla amakhulu.
- Umzabalazo wasekhaya eUkraine wadibana nokuvuselelwa kongquzulwano lwasebukhosini kwihlabathi liphela, ngakumbi xa i-United States yagqiba ekubeni yamkele isizathu esichasene neRussia kunye nokugalela iibhiliyoni zeedola kwizixhobo eziphambili kunye nobukrelekrele kwingxowa yolawulo lwaseKiev. Isizathu esichaziweyo salo mkhosi, ngokutsho kwamagosa aphezulu kulawulo lweBiden, yayikukuyenza "buthathaka" iRussia njengomntu okhuphisana nehlabathi kwaye alumkise i-China ukuba i-US iya kuxhathisa naziphi na iintshukumo zaseTshayina ezichasene neTaiwan okanye ezinye iithagethi zase-Asia ezithatha njengobundlongondlongo. Umphumo wayo yaba kukukhuthaza inkokeli yaseUkraine, uZelensky, ukuvakalisa ukuba isizwe sakhe asinakuze silalanise neRashiya kwimiba ekuphikiswana ngayo (kungekhona nakumbandela weCrimea), nokuba injongo yesizwe sakhe “luloyiso.” Umntu akanakuze azi, ngokuqinisekileyo, xa inkokeli eshumayela uloyiso nakweliphi na ixabiso iya kuthatha isigqibo sokuba isizwe sayo sihlawule ngokwaneleyo kwaye lixesha lokuthetha malunga nokunciphisa ilahleko kunye nokwandisa inzuzo. Nangona kunjalo, kulo mbhalo, uMnumzane uPutin okanye uMnumzana Zelensky akazimisele ukuthetha malunga nokuphelisa le ngxabano ebonakala ingenasiphelo.
Oku kunqongophala kwengcamango kwesibini kuye kwangqineka kuyindleko engakumbi kunobangela woxolo kunokungaqondwa kakuhle kwemfazwe. Ngelixa abameli be-Western hegemony befumana iindlela zokuthethelela inkxaso yase-US kunye ne-Yurophu yasemkhosini "yedemokhrasi" ngokuchasene "ne-autocracies" kunye neengcamango zaseRashiya ezifana nephupha lika-Alexander Dugin le-Great Russia evuselelwe, uninzi lwabaphengululi bezoxolo kunye nongquzulwano luhlala luzinikele kuhlalutyo lwesazisi- iqela lizabalaza njengendlela yokuqonda zombini ungquzulwano lwehlabathi kunye ne-polarization yangaphakathi. Abanye abaphengululi boxolo baye bachonga imithombo emitsha ebalulekileyo yongquzulwano njengokutshatyalaliswa kwendalo, iingxaki zonyango zehlabathi, kunye nokutshintsha kwemozulu, kodwa abaninzi bayaqhubeka nokungayihoyi ingxaki yobukhosi kunye nokuvela kweengxabano ezintsha phakathi kwee-hegemons. (Eyona nto ibalaseleyo koku kungaboni ngasonye ngumsebenzi kaJohan Galtung, ogama lakhe libhalwe ngo-2009, Ukuwa koBukhosi baseMelika-kwaye emva koko yintoni? TRANSCEND University Press, ngoku ibonakala isiprofeto.)
Oku kunqongophala ngokubanzi kwengqalelo kwi-impiriyali kunye nokuguquguquka kwayo kunezizathu ezisekelwe kwimbali yecandelo lezifundo zongquzulwano, kodwa imilinganiselo yezopolitiko kufuneka ichongwe ukuba sinethemba lokunqoba ubuthathaka obucacileyo beentshukumo zoxolo xa sijongene neengxabano ezifana neRashiya vs. Ukraine. kunye ne-NATO okanye i-US kunye namahlakani ayo vs. China. Ngokukodwa eNtshona, i-polarization yangoku yezopolitiko ithande ukuvelisa izinto ezimbini eziphambili: i-populism ephiko lasekunene izibophelelo zengcamango ze-ethno-nationalist kunye ne-isolationist, kunye ne-centrism exhomekeke ekhohlo enengcamango ye-cosmopolitan kunye ne-globalist. Akukho namnye umkhwa oqonda iipatheni ezivelayo zongquzulwano lwehlabathi okanye onomdla wokwenyani ekudaleni iimeko zoxolo lwehlabathi. ILungelo lithethelela ukuphepha iimfazwe ezingeyomfuneko, kodwa ubuzwe balo buyakugxeka ukuba likheswa; Ngoko ke, iinkokeli zamaphiko asekunene zishumayela ukulungela okukhulu komkhosi kwaye zithethelela "ukhuselo" ngokuchasene neentshaba zemveli zesizwe. I-Left yi-imperiyali esaziyo okanye engazi, imbono ayivakalisa ngokusebenzisa ulwimi "lobunkokeli" kunye "noxanduva" kunye naphantsi kweerubrikhi "zoxolo ngamandla" kunye "noxanduva lokukhusela."
Uninzi lwabaxhasi beQela leDemokhrasi e-US bayasilela ukuqaphela ukuba uLawulo lweBiden lwangoku ngummeli onoburhalarhume wezinto zobukhosi baseMelika kwaye ixhasa amalungiselelo emfazwe ajolise eTshayina naseRussia; okanye bayayiqonda le nto, kodwa bayijonge njengomba omncinci xa ithelekiswa nesoyikiso se-neo-fascism yasekhaya a la Donald Trump. Ngokukwanjalo, uninzi lwabaxhasi bamaqela asekhohlo nasekhohlo eYurophu bayasilela ukuqonda ukuba i-NATO ngoku lisebe lomatshini womkhosi wase-US kwaye unokusekwa komkhosi-mveliso wobukumkani obutsha baseYurophu. Okanye bayayikrokrela le nto kodwa bajonge ukunyuka kunye nokwandiswa kwe-NATO ngokusebenzisa iilensi zentiyo kunye nokukrokra kwabantu baseRussia kunye noloyiko lweentshukumo ezichanekileyo ezifana nezo zikaViktor Orban kunye noMarine Le Pen. Kuyo nayiphi na imeko, umphumo kukuba abameli boxolo lwehlabathi batyekele ekwahlukaneni nemimandla yasekhaya abanokuthi ngenye indlela banxulumane nayo.
Oku kuzihlukanisa kuye kwaphawuleka ngokukodwa kwimeko yokunyakaza koxolo ngokusebenzisa uthethathethwano e-Ukraine, engekafumani naluphi na uhlobo lokwenyani kulo naliphi na ilizwe laseNtshona. Ngokwenene, abona bathetheleli banamandla othethathethwano olukhawulezileyo loxolo, ngaphandle kwamagosa eZizwe eziManyeneyo, badla ngokuba ngamanani anxulunyaniswa nezizwe ezikuMbindi Mpuma kunye neAsia ezifana neTurkey, iIndiya neTshayina. Ngokwembono yaseNtshona, ke, owona mbuzo ukhathazayo nowona ufuneka kakhulu impendulo yindlela yokoyisa ukuba wedwa kweentshukumo zoxolo.
Iimpendulo ezimbini ziyazicebisa, kodwa nganye ivelisa iingxaki ezenza imfuno yengxoxo eyongezelelweyo:
Impendulo yokuqala: ukuseka umanyano phakathi kwephiko lasekhohlo kunye nabameli boxolo basekunene. Iinkululeko ezichasene nemfazwe kunye neesocialists zinokumanyana kunye ne-conservative isolationists kunye ne-libertarians ukudala umfelandawonye weqela elichasene neemfazwe zangaphandle. Ngapha koko, olu hlobo lomanyano ngamanye amaxesha lubakho ngokuzenzekelayo, njengase-United States ngexesha elilandela uhlaselo luka-2003 lwase-Iraq. Ubunzima, ewe, kukuba le yeyona nto kanye amaMarx ayibiza ngokuba “yimbumba ebolileyo” - umbutho wezopolitiko othi, ngenxa yokuba ufumene isizathu esiqhelekileyo kumbandela omnye kuphela, ubophelelekile ukuba uqhekeke xa eminye imiba isiba nkulu. Ukongeza, ukuba umsebenzi wokulwa imfazwe uthetha ukuncothula oonobangela yemfazwe kunye nokuchasa ukuhlanganiswa komkhosi wangoku, izinto "zebloki ebolileyo" azinakwenzeka ukuba zivumelane ngendlela yokuchonga kunye nokususa ezo zizathu.
Impendulo yesibini: ukuguqula iqela lasekhohlo libe kwimbono yenkxaso yoxolo echasene ne-imperial, okanye ukwahlula okushiyekileyo kwindawo yonyulo exhasa imfazwe kunye nemfazwe kwaye usebenzele ukukhusela ukongama kwabo bamva. Umqobo ekwenzeni oku akukona nje uloyiko oluqhelekileyo lokuthatyathwa kwephiko lasekunene elikhankanywe ngasentla kodwa ubuthathaka benkampu yoxolo. Ngaphakathi indawo yasekhohlo. E-US, uninzi “lwabantu abaqhubela phambili” (kubandakanya abazithambiseleyo beDemocratic Socialists) baye bathula kabukhali kwimfazwe yaseUkraine, mhlawumbi ngenxa yokoyika ukuzibeka bodwa kwimiba yasekhaya okanye ngenxa yokuba besamkela izizathu eziqhelekileyo zemfazwe echasene “nobundlobongela baseRussia. .” Oku kuphakamisa isidingo sokuqhawula kunye nabakhi be-empire kunye nokwakha imibutho echasene ne-capitalist ezinikele ekupheliseni impiriyali kunye nokwenza uxolo lwehlabathi. Oku is isisombululo kwingxaki, ubuncinci kwithiyori, kodwa ukuba abantu banokuhlanganiswa ngamanani amakhulu ngokwaneleyo ukuba bawumise ngexesha "lemfazwe inxalenye" iyathandabuza.
Oku kuphakamisa unxibelelwano phakathi kweendlela ezimbini ezivelayo zongquzulwano olunobundlobongela ekuxoxwe ngaso ngaphambili. Iimfazwe ezithile zolo hlobo ziliwa eUkraine zinokunqumla imizabalazo yamazwe afana nala phakathi kwemanyano yase-US/Yurophu kunye neRussia. Xa oku kusenzeka, baba ziingxabano “eziqandayo” ezithi, nangona kunjalo, zibe namandla okunyuka ngokumangalisayo- oko kukuthi, ukuya kwimfazwe epheleleyo- ukuba elinye icala lijongene noloyiso oluyintlekele, okanye ukuba impixano phakathi kwama-impiriyali iqina kakhulu. Ungquzulwano lwama-impiriyali ngokwalo lunokucingwa ngokuba luvuselelo lweMfazwe yoMlomo elawulekayo, ukusa kumlinganiselo othile, ngeenkqubo zokunqandana eziphuhliswe ngexesha langaphambili, okanye njengohlobo olutsha lomzabalazo olubeka imingcipheko emitsha, kubandakanywa umngcipheko omkhulu ngakumbi. ingozi yokuba izixhobo zenyukliya (eziqala ngezixhobo ezinesivuno esiphantsi) ziya kusetyenziswa nokuba ngamaqela amakhulu okanye ngamahlakani awo. Olwam uluvo, oluza kuthi thaca kuhlelo lwamva, lolokuba lumele uhlobo olutsha lomzabalazo owandisa kakhulu ubungozi bemfazwe yenyukliya.
Isigqibo esikhawulezileyo umntu anokuthi asithabathe kule nto kukuba kukho imfuneko engxamisekileyo yokuba abaphengululi boxolo baqaphele iindlela ezivelayo zongquzulwano lwehlabathi, bahlalutye ungquzulwano olutsha, kwaye benze izigqibo ezisebenzayo kolu hlalutyo. Kwangaxeshanye, abalweli boxolo kufuneka bachonge ngokungxamisekileyo oonobangela bobuthathaka babo bangoku kunye nokuba bodwa kwaye bayile iindlela zokwandisa impembelelo yabo phakathi kwamalungu oluntu kunye nabenzi bezigqibo abafikelelekayo. Kwezi nzame iincoko zamazwe ngamazwe kunye nezenzo ziya kubaluleka kakhulu, ekubeni ihlabathi liphela ekugqibeleni, kwaye ngokufanelekileyo, liphuma kulawulo lwaseNtshona.
