Fokanye phantse a kwinkulungwane ngoku, oorhulumente kunye nemikhosi yabo yasemkhosini baye bacela uncedo kwizazinzulu kunye neenjineli ukuba zenze izixhobo, ziyile iindlela zokuzikhusela, kwaye zicebise ngokusetyenziswa kwazo kunye nokuthunyelwa.
Ibonwa nguMIT
Ngelishwa, iinyani zenzululwazi nezeteknoloji azisoloko zihambelana nemigaqo-nkqubo ekhethwayo yezopolitiko kunye neenjengele. Emuva kwi-1950s, amanye amagosa ase-US ayethanda ukuvakalisa ukuba izazinzulu kufuneka zibe "kumpompo, kungekhona phezulu": ngamanye amazwi, zilungele ukubonelela ngeengcebiso ezifanelekileyo xa zifuneka, kodwa zinganikeli iingcebiso eziphikisana nomgca osemthethweni. Eso simo sengqondo siye sazingisa ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, kodwa izazinzulu ziye zala ngokungagungqiyo ukusebenzisana nazo.
Enye yeenkokeli ezaziwa kakhulu kule nkcaso nguTheodore "Ted" Postol, unjingalwazi ophumayo kwisayensi, itekhnoloji, kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo wokhuseleko wesizwe eMIT. Uqeqeshwe njengengcali yefiziksi kunye nenjineli yenyukliya, uPostol uchithe umsebenzi ontywiliselwe kwiinkcukacha zobugcisa bezomkhosi kunye nezokhuselo. Wasebenzela iNkongolo kwi-Ofisi yoVavanyo lweTekhnoloji engasekhoyo, emva koko ePentagon njengomcebisi kwiNtloko yeMisebenzi yaseLwandle ngaphambi kokujoyina i-academia, okokuqala kwiYunivesithi yaseStanford kwaye emva koko wabuyela kwi-alma mater yakhe, i-MIT.
Kuphela, ebengumgxeki ngokuphandle Iingqikelelo ezingasebenziyo, iimbono ezingenakwenzeka, kunye nentelekelelo yetekhnoloji engaphumeleliyo, kubandakanywa inkqubo kaRonald Reagan "yeNkwenkwezi zeNkwenkwezi", umjukujelwa wePatriot odumileyo weMfazwe yokuqala yeGulf, kunye neengqikelelo zamva nje zokhuselo lomjukujelwa we-intercontinental ezivavanywe yi-US Uphando lwakhe kunye nohlalutyo lwakhe lutyhile ngokuphindaphindiweyo. ukuzikhohlisa, ukumela kakubi, uphando olugwenxa, kunye nobuqhophololo obuvela kwiPentagon, iilebhu zezemfundo kunye nezabucala, kunye neCongress.
Xa sasinxibelelana naye, safumanisa ukuba, kunokuba athathe umhlala-phantsi eneminyaka engama-70 ubudala, wayelungiselela ukuya eJamani ukuze adibane noMphathiswa Wezangaphandle waseJamani ngobudlelwane baseYurophu-Rashiya. Umsebenzi wakhe ungumzekelo wenyaniso engunaphakade yokuba ukuba into ethile ivakala ilunge kakhulu ukuba ibe yinyaniso, idla ngokuba njalo. Kutshintshiselwano olungezantsi, iimpendulo zakhe zihlelwe ubude kunye nokucaca.
Kumnyama - I-US izama uhlobo oluthile lokuzikhusela kwimijukujelwa ye-ballistic ukususela ngo-Sputnik ngo-1957. Njengomgxeki walo mbono, ngaba unokuchaza ukuba kutheni ukhuselo olusebenzayo ngokwenene kwimijukujelwa engenayo lungenakwenzeka ngokwenene kubuchwepheshe?
UTed Postol Kwimeko yokhuselo lwemijukujelwa yohlobo lwase-United States eyakhayo, zonke izinto eziza kubonwa ngabangeneleli ziya kubonakala njengeendawo zokukhanya. Ngaphandle kokuba i-interceptor inolwazi lwangaphambili, njengamanye amanqaku okukhanya anokukhanya okucaciswe kakuhle xa kuthelekiswa nabanye, ayinayo kwaphela indlela yokumisela ukuba ijonge ntoni kwaye ngenxa yoko, ukuba ijonge ntoni ekhaya.
Umbono ongeyiyo oqhelekileyo kukuba, ukuba amanyathelo anjalo okuthintela ukuphumelela, iintloko zemfazwe kunye neenkohliso kufuneka zijonge ngokufanayo. Konke okufunekayo kukuba zonke izinto zibukeka ngokwahlukileyo kwaye akukho lwazi lwento onokuyilindela. Ngenxa yoko, utshaba lunokuguqula imilo ye-warhead (umzekelo ngokufaka ibhaluni ejikeleze kuyo) kwaye uguqule ngokupheleleyo ukubonakala kwayo kwinzwa yomgama. Ukuba utshaba luyakwazi ukwakha ii-ICBM kunye neentloko zenyukliya, utshaba ngokuqinisekileyo lunobuchwepheshe bokwakha kunye nokuhambisa iibhaluni, kunye nokwenza izinto ezilula ukuguqula ukubonakala kweemfazwe. Itekhnoloji yokuphumeza amanyathelo anjalo athobeke kakhulu ngelixa itekhnoloji yokuyoyisa ngokusisiseko ayikho-akukho sayensi enokuthi isetyenziswe ziinjineli eziya kuvumela ukhuselo ukuba lugqibe ukuba lubona ntoni.
Ke inkcaso yam kwizikhuselo ze-missile eziphakamileyo ezisetyenziswa yi-United States ilula kakhulu - abanalo ithuba lokusebenza ngokuchasene naluphi na umchasi onokuqonda okuthobekileyo kwinto abayenzayo.
UD - Ithini imeko yangoku yenkqubo yethiyetha ye-NATO? U-Obama urhoxise iprojekthi enye eyaqalwa nguMongameli uGeorge W. Bush, kodwa ucinga ukuba kusenokwenzeka ukuba ilandelwe ngamandla lulawulo olutsha eWashington?
TP - Ukhuselo lwethiyetha ye-NATO yangoku iyaphila kwaye iphilile. Olu khuselo lwemijukujelwa lwakhiwe malunga nomjukujelwa womphezulu ukuya emoyeni owaziwa ngokuba yi I-Missile esemgangathweni-3 (SM-3). Ingqikelelo yoqobo yayikukuphehlelela ii-interceptors ukusuka Aegis cruisers kwaye usebenzise iirada ze-Aegis ukubhaqa imijukujelwa kunye neentloko zemfazwe kunye nokukhokela i-interceptors. Nangona kunjalo, kuvela ukuba i-radars ye-Aegis ayikwazanga ukubona kunye nokulandelela iithagethi ze-missile ye-ballistic kuluhlu olude ngokwaneleyo ukuvumela ixesha lokuba i-interceptor ibhabhe ngaphandle kwaye ibandakanye ithagethi.
Umbuzo olungileyo omele uwubuze ngowokuba i-US ibinokuthi ikhethe njani ukuphuhlisa nokuhambisa inkqubo enjalo kwaye ingaziwa ukuba le yayiyimeko. Enye inkcazo yeyokuba ukhetho lokhuselo lwemijukujelwa lwaluyalelwa kuphela yimigaqo yezopolitiko kwaye ngenxa yoko, akukho mntu ubandakanyekayo kwinkqubo yokwenza izigqibo wenze naluphi na uhlalutyo, okanye okhathalelwe ukugqiba ukuba ngaba le ngcamango yenza ingqiqo. Ukuba ufumanisa ukuba oku kulihlazo, ndivuma ngokupheleleyo.
Ingxaki yezopolitiko nge-Aegis-based missile defense kukuba inani le-interceptors elinokuthi lisetyenziswe yi-United States liya kukhula kakhulu ngo-2030 ukuya ku-2040. Uthintelo lwee-warheads ezingenayo ezilandelelwe zii-radars zesilumkiso sakwangoko zase-US.
Oku kudala imbonakalo yokuba i-United States inokuthi ikhusele ilizwekazi lase-United States kumakhulukhulu eemfazwe zaseTshayina okanye zaseRashiya. Isithintelo esisisiseko sokunciphisa izixhobo kwixesha elizayo ngenxa yokuba amaRussia akafuni ukunciphisa ubungakanani bemikhosi yawo ukuya kumanqanaba apho anokuthi ngaxa lithile abe sesichengeni samanani amaninzi e-US antimissile interceptors.
Inyani yeyokuba inkqubo yokhuselo iya kuba namandla amancinci okanye angabikho kwaphela. I-radars ezilumkiso zakwangoko azinakho ukucalula phakathi kwee-warheads kunye ne-decoys (ezi radars ezithile zisisombululo esiphantsi kakhulu) kwaye i-SM-3 interceptors ayinakukwazi ukwazi ukuba yeyiphi kwiithagethi ezininzi ezinokuhlangabezana nazo yi-warhead. Nangona kunjalo, inkangeleko yokuba i-United States izama ukuba namandla okuzikhusela ngamakhulu e-interceptors iya kuphakamisa imiqobo enzulu kunye neyingxaki enkulu kwiinzame zexesha elizayo zokunciphisa izixhobo.
I-United States inamandla amakhulu okutshabalalisa iindawo ezinkulu zemikhosi yaseRashiya kugwayimbo lokuqala. Nangona isenzo esinjalo ngokuqinisekileyo siya kuba kukuzibulala, abacwangcisi bezomkhosi kumacala omabini (iRussia kunye neMelika) bayithathele ingqalelo le nto yenzekayo kumashumi eminyaka eMfazwe Yomlomo. Kucace gca kwiingxelo ezenziwe nguVladimir Putin ukuba akayigatya into yokuba i-United States ingazama ukukhulula iRussia kuhlaselo lwenyukliya. Yiyo loo nto, nangona kungekho cala linethuba lokusinda kwintlekele ekhoyo ukuba izixhobo zisetyenziswa ngolu hlobo, okunokwenzeka kuthathelwa ingqalelo kwaye kuphembelela ukuziphatha kwezopolitiko.
UD - In 1995, i-rocket yophando yaseNorway phantse yaqala iMfazwe Yehlabathi III xa amaRashiya ayecinga ukuba luhlaselo lwase-US. Uhlalutyo lwakho lubonise indlela isiganeko esibonise ngayo iimpazamo ezicacileyo kwiinkqubo zesilumkiso zaseRashiya kunye nokukhusela. Ngaba kukho ukuphucuka kwezakhono zokulumkisa kwangaphambili zaseRashiya?
TP - Abantu baseRussia babandakanyeka kumzamo obekwe phambili kakhulu wokwakha inkqubo yokulumkisa kwangoko ngokuchasene nohlaselo olungalindelekanga lwase-US. Inkqubo abayakhayo isekelwe ekusebenziseni i-radars esekelwe emhlabeni yoyilo oluhlukeneyo olunabalandeli bokukhangela abadlulayo kunye nobuchwepheshe bobunjineli obuhlukeneyo. Kucacile ukuba le yinxalenye yesicwangciso sokunciphisa amathuba esilumkiso sobuxoki kwimodi eqhelekileyo ngelixa uzama ukubonelela ngokungasebenzi okubalulekileyo ukuqinisekisa isilumkiso sohlaselo.
Kutshanje, kulo nyaka uphelileyo, abantu baseRussia baye bakwazi ukufumana i-radar ye-360-degree ngokuchasene nohlaselo lwe-ballistic missile nuclear. Xa ubani ejonga uncwadi lwabo kwiinkqubo zokulumkisa kwangethuba, kucace gca kwiingxelo zabo ukuba le ibiyinjongo ebebezama ukuyifeza kangangamashumi eminyaka—ukususela kwixesha leSoviet Union.
Abantu baseRashiya babonakala besebenzisa udidi olutsha lweerada ezingaphezulu kwe-horizon ezibonakala kum zingenanto yakwenza nokhuselo lomoya, njengoko kuchaziwe kwiincwadi zesiRashiya. Ukuba umntu ujonga indawo kunye neempawu ezi radars phezu-the-horizon, kucace gca ukuba zijolise ekunikeni isilumkiso sohlaselo lomjukujelwa we-ballistic ukusuka kuMntla weAtlantiki kunye neGulf of Alaska.
Ingxaki kukuba ezi radars zilula kakhulu ukuba jam kwaye azinakuxhomekeka ekubeni zithembeke kakhulu kwindawo enobutshaba. Zonke izibonakaliso namhlanje zibonisa ngokucacileyo ukuba amaRashiya asenayo iteknoloji yokwakha inkqubo yokulumkisa kwangaphambili kwe-infrared. Banabo ubuchule obulinganiselweyo bokwakha iinkqubo ezijonga imimandla emincinane kakhulu yomhlaba, kodwa akukho nto ikufutshane nokugutyungelwa kwehlabathi.
UD - Zeziphi iingozi zokuba amandla amancinci enyukliya anamandla okujula okulinganiselweyo afana noMntla Korea anokuluqhwalelisa unxibelelwano lwesathelayithi yehlabathi ngokudutyulwa kwenyukliya ye-electromagnetic pulse, nangaphezu kommandla wabo? Ngaba kukho nayiphi na indlela yokuzikhusela kuhlaselo olunjalo?
TP - Umonakalo omkhulu unokwenziwa kwiisathelayithi zomphakamo ophantsi, ezinye ngokukhawuleza zize ezinye emva kwexesha. Noko ke, ugqabhuko-dubulo olunye lwenyukliya olunesivuno esiphantsi aluyi kutshabalalisa lonke unxibelelwano.
Esam isigwebo sesokuba eyona ngozi inkulu evela eNyakatho Korea kukuba banokukhubeka kungquzulwano lwenyukliya neNtshona. Ubunkokeli baseNyakatho Korea abuphambani. Endaweni yoko bunkokeli obukholelwa ukuba kufuneka bujongeke bungalindelekanga kwaye bunoburhalarhume ukuze kugcinwe uMzantsi Korea kunye ne-United States ngaphandle kokulingana njengenxalenye yesicwangciso esipheleleyo sokuthintela isenzo somkhosi nguMzantsi kunye ne-US.
Ngenxa yoko, abantu baseNyakatho Korea benza ngabom izinto ezenza ukubonakala kokungakhathali-okwenene iqhinga lokungakhathali ngokwalo. Eyona ngozi inkulu kukuba baya kunyathela ngaphaya komgca bengaqondanga kwaye bakhawulezise impendulo yomkhosi evela eNtshona okanye eMazantsi. Nje ukuba le nto ihambe akukho mntu unokwazi ukuba izakuphelela phi okanye njani. Mhlawumbi ekuphela kwesiphumo esikufutshane kukuba iNorth Korea iya kutshatyalaliswa kwaye iyeke ukubakho njengesizwe. Nangona kunjalo, akukho mntu unokuqikelela ukuba izixhobo zenyukliya aziyi kusetyenziswa, kwaye ukusabela kweTshayina ekubeni nemikhosi yase-US kunye ne-South Korea ngqo kwimida yayo kunokuba nemiphumo engalindelekanga.
Ngoko iNorth Korea ngokuqinisekileyo yimeko eyingozi kakhulu.
UD - Abantu abaninzi, kubandakanywa namalungu aphambili okhuselo anjengoHenry Kissinger, uWilliam Perry, noSam Nunn, bafuna ukupheliswa ngokupheleleyo kwezixhobo zenyukliya eMhlabeni. Ngaba ucinga ukuba olu lusukelo olusengqiqweni nolunokufikelelwa?
TP - Ndingumxhasi onenzondelelo “wombono” wehlabathi elingenazixhobo zenyukliya.
Mna ngokobuqu ndicinga ukuba kuya kuba nzima kakhulu ukuba nehlabathi elingenazo izixhobo zenyukliya ngaphandle kokuba imeko yezopolitiko yehlabathi iguqulwe ngokupheleleyo ekubeni iyiyo namhlanje. Nangona kunjalo, oku akukona ukugxekwa kweenjongo zombono ezibekwe nguShultz, uPerry, uNunn kunye noKissinger.
Okwangoku, iUnited States kunye neRashiya ziziphatha ngendlela ebonisa ukuba akukho cala lilungele ukuthatha amanyathelo kulo mbono. Eyam imbono, engathandwayo kule meko yezopolitiko ikhoyo ngoku, yeyokuba iUnited States lilizwe eliphambili kulo mba.
I-United States ikwinkqubo yokwakhiwa kwezixhobo zenyukliya ezinkulu ezibonakala zijolise ekubeni namandla okulwa kunye nokuphumelela iimfazwe zenyukliya. Inyani yokuba umbono wokulwa kunye nokuphumelela imfazwe yenyukliya uqhawule umtshato ngokupheleleyo kwizinto eziyinyani zeziphumo zezixhobo zenyukliya ayikhange iyithintele i-United States ekuqhubeleni phambili ngokungathi loo njongo inokwenzeka.
Ngenxa yolu kuziphatha, kulindeleke ukuba abantu baseRussia boyike ukufa, kwaye amaTshayina nawo abe kufutshane emva kwawo. Ndiyakholelwa ukuba imeko iyingozi kakhulu kwaye eneneni iya iba ngaphezulu.
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UMark Wolverton, i-2016-17 i-Knight Science Journalism Fellow e-MIT, umbhali wesayensi, umbhali, kunye nomdlali wemidlalo yakhe amanqaku avele kwi-Wired, Scientific American, Popular Science, Air & Space Smithsonian, kunye ne-American Heritage, phakathi kwezinye iimpapasho. Incwadi yakhe yamva nje ithi "Ubomi kuTwilight: Iminyaka yokugqibela kaJ. Robert Oppenheimer."
I-Undark yimagazini yedijithali engenzi nzuzo, ezimeleyo ephonononga ukuhlangana kwenzululwazi noluntu. Ipapashwe ngenkxaso-mali yesisa evela kuJohn S. kunye noJames L. Knight Foundation, ngeNkqubo yayo ye-Knight Science Journalism Fellowship eCambridge, Massachusetts.
