nguCatherine Killough, ngoNovemba 29, 2017, Lobe Log.
Umongameli uTrump uhlala echaza irekhodi lengxoxo phakathi kweNorth Korea kunye ne-United States. Kwintetho yakhe phambi kweNdlu yoWiso-mthetho yaseMzantsi Korea, wafikelela kwisigqibo esinye kwimbali entsonkothileyo yempumelelo yezozakuzo: “Ulawulo lwaseNyakatho Korea lulandele iinkqubo zalo zenyukliya kunye ne-ballistic missile ngokuchasene nayo yonke isiqinisekiso, isivumelwano kunye nokuzibophelela okwenzileyo. eUnited States nakumahlakani ayo.”
Ayiyonto intsha kwaye ayiqhelekanga ukugxeka iNorth Korea ngenxa yerekhodi yayo yothethathethwano engafezekanga, kodwa ayizange ibe yingozi ngakumbi. Kuthotho lweetweets kwinyanga ephelileyo, uTrump akapheleli nje ekujongeni phantsi iinzame zezozakuzo zangaphambili “zokwenza izidenge zabo bathethathethana base-US,” kodwa waqukumbela ngokungafihlisiyo, “Uxolo, inye kuphela into eza kusebenza!”
Ukuba ayisiyiyo idiplomacy, ke loo nto "into enye" ivakala njengoqhankqalazo lwasemkhosini, isindululo esinzima ebesiphindaphinda kulo lonke umgaqo-nkqubo waseWashington wangaphandle. Njengoko uEvan Osnos ephawulile kwincwadi yakhe inqaku ukwenzela i New Yorker, "Ngaba udidi lwezoPolitiko luqhubela emfazweni noMntla Korea?" Umbono wemfazwe yothintelo uye wanda kangangokuba nowayesakuba ngunobhala weKhabhinethi yeDemokhrasi wazityand’ igila, “ukuba ebekurhulumente namhlanje ebeya kuxhasa ukuhlaselwa kweNorth Korea, ukunqanda ukuba iqalise ugwayimbo eMelika.”
Kwabo bafuna ukuthintela imfazwe enokukhokelela kwizigidi zabantu abenzakeleyo kwiPeninsula yaseKorea, akukho zikhetho zomkhosi. Kodwa kwiidemokhrasi ezininzi, ukukhuthaza idiplomacy kuqhuba umngcipheko wokubonakalisa ubuthathaka. Ngokungamangalisiyo, imilinganiselo yezoqoqosho etyhutyha umgca phakathi kokuba nesohlwayo kwaye hayi-imfazwe ngokuqinisekileyo ifumana eyona nkxaso ibanzi yamaqela amabini.
Ukunika le meko yezopolitiko, ukulungisa imbali egqwethekileyo malunga nothethathethwano lwase-US-North Korea kubalulekile-ingakumbi njengoko utyekelo lokujonga iintetho njengokuxolisa, okanye ukusebenzisana njengemvumelwano, ukhula ngamandla. Uninzi lwalo luvela kwindlela abagxeki abaye baqulunqa ngayo isivumelwano sokuqala esikhokelwa yi-US kunye noMntla Korea kunye nokuwa kwayo ekugqibeleni.
ISivumelwano Esomise iiNukes zaseNyakatho Korea
Ngowe-1994, iUnited States neNorth Korea zazisele ziselunxwemeni lwemfazwe. Yayilixesha lokuqala ukuba ulawulo olungaziwayo kumntla we-38th i-parallel igrogrise ngokuza kwenza inyukliya. Emva kokugxotha bonke abahloli bamazwe ngamazwe elizweni, iNorth Korea yalungiselela ukukhupha iibhombu ezintandathu zexabiso le-plutonium yodidi lwezixhobo kwiintonga zamafutha kwireactor yophando yaseYongbyon.
Ngeli xesha, uMongameli onobuso obutsha uBill Clinton wacinga ukuthatha inyathelo lomkhosi, kubandakanya nesicwangciso sokwenza utyando kwizixhobo zenyukliya zaseNyakatho Korea. Uninzi lwamagosa akhe aphezulu athandabuza ukuba angaphembelela abantu baseNyakatho Korea ekubeni benze izixhobo zenyukliya. NjengoSekela Nobhala wezoKhuselo kuKhuseleko lwaMazwe ngaMazwe uAshton Carter wathi, “Sasingaqinisekanga nangayiphi na indlela ukuba sinako ukuthetha nabo bangalithathi elo nyathelo.”
Nangona kunjalo, njengoNobhala wezoKhuselo uWilliam Perry khumbula, imingcipheko yokubangela iMfazwe yesibini yaseKorea inyanzelise abaphathi ukuba balandele indlela yozakuzo. Intlanganiso phakathi kowayesakuba nguMongameli uJimmy Carter kunye nenkokeli yaseMntla Korea uKim Il Sung ikhokelele kwiingxoxo ezinzulu zamazwe amabini eziye zafikelela kuvuthondaba ngeNkqubo-sikhokelo eSivumelwano yase-US-North Korea ngomhla wama-21 ku-Okthobha ka-1994.
Kwesi sivumelwano sibalulekileyo, iNorth Korea yavuma ukuba ngumkhenkce kwaye ekugqibeleni ichithe ii-reactors ezimodareyithwayo zegraphite ukutshintshiselana ngamafutha kunye nezixhobo ezimbini ezikwaziyo ukumelana nokukhanya kwamanzi. Ezi zixhobo zombane zinokuvelisa amandla, kodwa azinakusetyenziswa ukwenza izixhobo zenyukliya.
Phantse ishumi leminyaka, iUnited States igcine umgca othe ngqo, ovulekileyo wonxibelelwano kunye nolawulo lwe-paranoid kunye nokungakhuselekanga. Elo nqanaba lothethathethwano lenze ukuba kube lula ukuba iintshaba ezimbini zizibophelele kwisivumelwano esinesiphumo esibalulekileyo, sezinto eziphathekayo: INorth Korea yayeka ukuvelisa iplutonium iminyaka esibhozo. Njengonozakuzaku waseMelika kuMzantsi Korea uThomas Hubbard gqityiwe, iNkqubo-sikhokelo eSivumelwano “yangqineka ingafezekanga… Kodwa iye yathintela uMntla Korea ekubeni uvelise izixhobo zenyukliya ezili-100 ngoku.”
Ngelishwa, ezi mpumelelo zisithwe kukuwohloka kweNkqubo-sikhokelo eVunyelweyo, apho “ukuwa” kuye kwanxulunyaniswa “nokusilela.” Kodwa ukutsho ukuba isivumelwano asiphumelelanga kuchaza ngokucacileyo ukuba yeyiphi impumelelo enokubandakanya ilizwe elithwele imithwalo yembali njengeNorth Korea. Ukubhengezwa kwemithombo yeendaba kakubi, kubandakanya ukushiyiwa kweentsilelo kwicala lase-US kwisivumelwano, ngokuyinxenye kungunobangela. Kodwa i-hawkish conservatives, ekudala bexhaphaza isivumelwano njengenqaku lesilumkiso lokuxolisa ngokukhululekileyo, ikakhulu banetyala.
Zombini i-United States kunye neNorth Korea zidlale indima ekuweni kweNkqubo-sikhokelo eVunyiweyo, kodwa uluvo lokuba uMntla Korea uyaqhatha iyayifihla loo nyaniso. Kungekudala emva kokuba ulawulo lukaClinton luphule isivumelwano, amaRiphabhlikhi afumana ulawulo lweCongress, okubangele "ukungabikho kwentando yezopolitiko," ngoku ka uthethwano oyintloko uRobert Gallucci, kwaye kukhokelele ekulibazisekeni okubonakalayo ekunikezelweni kwezibophelelo zase-US.
Inkcaso yeCongressional yaphinda yavuka ngo-1998 phakathi kwezityholo zokuba uMntla wawufihla indawo yenyukliya engaphantsi komhlaba eKumchang-ri. Endaweni yokuthatha indlela yokohlwaya, ulawulo lukaClinton lunxibelelane ngokuthe ngqo nabemi baseNyakatho Korea kwaye, befuna ukusindisa isivumelwano, bathethathethana ngesivumelwano esitsha esivumela ukuba iUnited States ihlole rhoqo indawo ekrokrelekayo, apho iye yasilela ukufumana nabuphi na ubungqina. umsebenzi wenyukliya.
Le ndlela yozakuzo iqhubekile nanjengoko inkqubo yomjukujelwa eqhubela phambili yaseNyakatho Korea yavakala izilumkiso ezintsha. Ukulandela ukuqaliswa kweNorth Korea yomjukujelwa omude we-ballistic phezu kwe-Japan ngo-1998, ulawulo lukaClinton lunike iqela elincinane leengcali zangaphakathi nangaphandle kukarhulumente kunye noPhononongo loMgaqo-nkqubo waseNorth Korea oluza kubandakanya iinjongo ezichazwe kwiSakhelo esiVunyiweyo.
Owayesakuba nguNobhala wezoKhuselo uWilliam Perry usebenzisane noorhulumente baseNyakatho Korea, eMzantsi Korea, eTshayina naseJapan kwinto eyaziwa ngokuba yiNkqubo yePerry. Imijikelo emininzi yothethathethwano yafikelela kuvuthondaba ngo-1999 ngengxelo eyayichaza izindululo ze-United States ukuba iqhubele phambili ukunqunyanyiswa okunokungqinwa kunye nokuphelisa ekugqibeleni imijukujelwa yaseMantla kunye nemijukujelwa emide. Kwakhona, iqela lokuphonononga umgaqo-nkqubo lifumene ukuba i-United States kufuneka ithathe amanyathelo okujongana neenkxalabo zokhuseleko zaseNyakatho kunye nokuseka ubudlelwane obuqhelekileyo.
INorth Korea iphendule kakuhle ngokungavumanga nje ukumisa uvavanyo lwayo lomjukujelwa ngexesha leentetho, kodwa ithumele nomcebisi wayo omkhulu emkhosini eWashington ukuba baxoxe ngeenkcukacha zesindululo sikaPerry kunye noMongameli uClinton. Unobhala welizwe uMadeleine Albright wabuyisela utyelelo ngokuya ePyongyang kwintlanganiso noKim Jong Il kamva kuloo nyanga.
Nangona kunjalo, umfutho wento owayesakuba nguMcebisi oKhethekileyo kuMongameli uWendy Sherman ebizwa isindululo “esisondele ngokumangalisayo” samisa kwinyanga elandelayo ngonyulo lukaGeorge W. Bush. UNobhala welizwe u-Colin Powell wathi umgaqo-nkqubo waseNyakatho Korea uza kuqhubeka apho uClinton wayeyeke khona, kodwa uBush, owagqiba ukurhoxisa zonke iingxoxo kunye neNorth Korea kwiminyaka emibini ezayo, wamtshitshisa.
Ulawulo lukaBush lwajikela kude kwikhosi yezozakuzo apho ulawulo lukaClinton lwathatha iintlungu ukuyigcina. UBush wongezelela iNorth Korea kwi-triad yakhe "ye-axis of evil" ithi. UDick Cheney wakhaba idiplomacy ngotshintsho kulawulo, esithi, “Asithethisani nobubi. Siyayoyisa.” U-Undersecretary of State for Arms Control uJohn Bolton wasebenzisa iingxelo zobuntlola malunga nenkqubo ekrokrelekayo yokutyebisa iuranium eyimfihlo ukubulala isivumelwano angazange asithande. Ngawakhe amazwi, “Esi yayisisando ebendisifuna ukuqhekeza iNkqubo-sikhokelo eSivunyelweneyo.”
Ekugqibeleni, ulawulo lukaBush lutyhola ukuba igosa laseNyakatho Korea liqinisekisile ubukho beprogram yokutyebisa i-uranium. INorth Korea yakukhanyela ukwamkelwa, nto leyo eyakhokelela kwizityholo ezingasemva zokuba icala ngalinye laphula isivumelwano. Endaweni yokusebenza ukoyisa ukungathembani okukhulayo, iUnited States yarhoxa kwisivumelwano ngo-2002.
Isakhelo esiVunyiweyo Redux
Ukwala kukaBush ukusebenzisana noMntla Korea kwaphinda kwachaphazela ulawulo lwakhe ngo-2003. INorth Korea yakhawuleza yaqalisa inkqubo yayo yeplutonium yaze yabhengeza ukuba inesixhobo senyukliya. Iqinisekile ngesidingo sokuphinda ungene kwiingxoxo, i-United States yajoyina i-China, i-Russia, i-Japan, kunye ne-South Korea kwiiNtetho zeQela amaThandathu.
Imijikelo eliqela yengxoxo yakhokelela kwimpumelelo kwiminyaka emibini kamva ngeNgxelo eHlangeneyo yowama-2005, eyathembisa ukuba uMntla uza kuzishiya “zonke izixhobo zenyukliya kunye neenkqubo zenyukliya ezikhoyo.” Kodwa kungekudala ukuba amaqela amathandathu abhengeze isivumelwano emva kokuba uNondyebo wase-US ekhenkcise impahla yaseNorth Korea kwibhanki yaseMacau, eBanco Delta Asia.
Kubunkokheli baseNyakatho Korea, ukumisa ukufikelela kwabo kwi-25 yezigidi zeedola kwimali enkulu yayilityala elibi kwaye bacebise ukuba iUnited States yayingazimiselanga ukwenza isivumelwano. Kwanabo basebenzela abaphathi, njengonozakuzaku oyintloko uChristopher Hill, basibonile esi senzo njengelinge "lokuphazamisa uthethathethwano ngokupheleleyo."
Nokuba zithini na iinjongo zikaNondyebo wase-US, ukumiswa komkhenkce kube nefuthe leminyaka eyoyikisayo yenkqubela-phambili esetyenzwe nzima ukuze kwakhiwe ukuthembana kwakhona. INorth Korea yaziphindezela ngo-2006 ngokungavavanyi nje imijukujelwa esibhozo kuphela, kodwa yaphinda yadubula isixhobo sayo sokuqala senyukliya.
I-United States isandula ukulusindisa uthethathethwano ngokuphakamisa umkhenkce kwaye isuse iNorth Korea kuluhlu lweSponsors of Terrorism ngo-2007. Ukubuyisela, iNorth Korea yaphinda yaphinda yaphinda yabahloli benyukliya yaza yavala i-reactor yayo yaseYongbyon, yaqhushumba inqaba epholileyo kwisiganeko esimangalisayo sikamabonakude. Kodwa umonakalo owaneleyo wenzekile ukuba ngexesha lokuvela kweengxabano ezintsha malunga namanyathelo okuqinisekisa, iiNtetho zeQela amaThathu zafika emngciphekweni kwaye zasilela ukuya kwinqanaba lokugqibela lokuchitha inkqubo yezixhobo zenyukliya yaseNyakatho Korea.
Imida yomonde woBuchule
Njengolawulo oluphambi kwakhe, uMongameli u-Obama wayecotha uthethathethwano lomthengisi kunye neNorth Korea. Nangona u-Obama wacacisa kwasekuqaleni ukuba uza kuthatha indlela ye-diplomacy kwaye "wolulele isandla" kwezo lawulo "zizimisele ukukhulula inqindi yakho," iNorth Korea yawela phantsi kuluhlu lwezinto eziphambili kumgaqo-nkqubo wangaphandle.
Endaweni yoko, umgaqo-nkqubo "womonde wobuchule" wema kuwo nawuphi na umzamo ojoliswe kuwo wokubuyisela iNorth Korea kwitafile yothethathethwano. Nangona ucango lweentetho lwahlala luvulekile ngobuchwepheshe, iUnited States ilandele izohlwayo kunye namaphulo oxinzelelo ngokungafaniyo nolawulo lukaTrump. INorth Korea yasibuyisela umva isabelo sayo sokuxhokonxa, kubandakanya uvavanyo lwesibini lwenyukliya kunye neemfazwe ezimbini ezibulalayo kumda wayo noMzantsi Korea.
Kwakungekho kude kube ngu-2011 ukuba ulawulo luka-Obama luphinde luqalise iingxoxo ze-denuclearization. Emva kwe-hiccup emfutshane emva kokufa kukaKim Jong Il, la mazwe mabini abhengeze isivumelwano se-"Leap Day" ngoFebruwari 2012. INorth Korea yavuma ukumiswa kovavanyo lwayo olude lwe-missile kunye nenyukliya ngokutshintshiselana ne-240,000 yeetoni zokuncedisa ukutya. .
Kwiintsuku ezilishumi elinesithandathu emva koko, iNorth Korea yazisa izicwangciso zayo zokukhupha isathelayithi emajukujukwini. I-United States ibambelele kumbono wokuba ukuqaliswa okunjalo kuya kwaphula imimiselo yesivumelwano, ngelixa iNorth Korea zifunyenwe, "ukuqaliswa kwesathelayithi akuqukwanga kwimijukujelwa yexesha elide" kwaye iqhubekile nezicwangciso zayo.
Ulawulo lwasirhoxisa kwangoko isivumelwano, inyathelo elididayo elinikwe iinzame zaseMelika ezidlulileyo zokujongana nemingcipheko yokusetyenziswa kabini kwetekhnoloji yomjukujelwa. Umzekelo, kumashumi eminyaka i-United States yalile izicelo zase-South Korea zokwandisa uluhlu lwemijukujelwa ye-ballistic ngenxa yokoyika ukuba iya kuqala ugqatso lwezixhobo zengingqi. Phakathi koxinzelelo olukhulayo, iUnited States yafikelela kwisivumelwano ngo-2001 esandisa umda wemisebenzi ye-missile yase-South Korea ngelixa ibandakanya imiqobo ethile kwinkqubo yokuqaliswa kwe-space, efana nokusetyenziswa kwe-liquid fuel.
Esikhundleni sokuphinda uhlaziye isivumelwano ukuze ukwahlula ngokucacileyo oko kwamkelekileyo ngokwe-satellite okanye ukuqaliswa kwe-missile, i-United States ivumela iingxoxo kunye neNorth Korea, kwakhona, ziwele endleleni.
Ekuphela Kokhetho
Ukuba uBush wayesigcinile iNkqubo-sikhokelo eSivunyiweyo, ukuba abalukhuni bebengakhange balonakalise iiNtetho zeQela eliThandathu, kwaye ukuba u-Obama wayeyicacisile imiqathango yesivumelwano soSuku lweLeap, iNorth Korea isenokungabi bububi benyukliya obubambe iUnited States namahlakani ayo namhlanje.
Kodwa izithembiso ezaphulwayo kunye neebhulorho ezitshisiweyo azisiso isizathu sokulahla i-diplomacy. Kukho izifundo ezininzi phakathi kweentanda zerekhodi yothethathethwano olungalinganiyo olufanele ukutsalwa, kubandakanywa nesidingo sokujongana neenkxalabo zokhuseleko zaseNorth Korea kunye nokubaluleka okubalulekileyo kolungelelwaniso lwe-US.
Kusekho ukuvulwa kokuthotyelwa kweNorth Korea, kodwa uTrump usongela ukuyivala rhoqo xa ejongela phantsi ixabiso leengxoxo. Njengaye wonke umongameli ukusukela oko uClinton ekugqibeleni waqonda, ukuba enye indlela kunye neNorth Korea yimfazwe, zonke iindlela zozakuzo kufuneka zijongwe ngokupheleleyo. Izigidi zabantu zixhomekeke kubomi babantu.
UCatherine Killough nguRoger L. Hale Fellow kwiPlowshares Fund, isiseko sokhuseleko kwihlabathi. Ufumene i-MA kwizifundo zaseAsia kwiSikolo seNkonzo yaNgaphandle kwiYunivesithi yaseGeorgetown. Landela kuTwitter @catkillough. Ifoto: UJimmy Carter kunye noKim Il Sung.
