Ukufunda Izifundo ezingalunganga ezivela eUkraine

NguDavid Swanson, World BEYOND War, UEpreli 11, 2022

IUkraine yazincama izixhobo zayo zenyukliya yaza yahlaselwa. Ngoko ke ilizwe ngalinye kufuneka libe nezixhobo zenyukliya.

I-NATO ayizange yongeze i-Ukraine, eyahlaselwa. Ke ilizwe ngalinye okanye ubuncinci babo kufuneka bongezwe kwi-NATO.

IRashiya inorhulumente ombi. Ngoko ke kufuneka iguqulwe.

Ezi zifundo zithandwa, zinengqiqo-kwaye inyaniso engathandabuzekiyo kwiingqondo ezininzi-kwaye intlekele kwaye iphosakele ngokubonakalayo.

Ihlabathi libe nethamsanqa elimangalisayo kunye nenani eliphezulu ngokuhlekisayo lokuphoswa kufutshane nezixhobo zenyukliya. Ukuhamba nje kwexesha kwenza ukuba i-apocalypse yenyukliya ibe nokwenzeka kakhulu. Izazinzulu ezigcina iDoomsday Clock zithi umngcipheko ngoku mkhulu kunangaphambili. Ukuyandisa ngokwandisa ngakumbi kongeza umngcipheko. Kulabo babeka ukusinda kobomi eMhlabeni ngaphezu kwayo nayiphi na inkalo yokuba ubomi bujongeka njani (kuba awunakuyeka iflegi kwaye uthiye utshaba ukuba awukho) ukuphelisa izixhobo zenyukliya kufuneka kube yeyona nto iphambili, kanye njengokuphelisa. ukukhutshwa kwemozulu etshabalalisayo.

Kodwa kuthekani ukuba ilizwe ngalinye elinikezela ngee-nukes liyahlaselwa? Oko kuya kuba lixabiso eliphakamileyo ngokwenene, kodwa akunjalo. IKazakhstan nayo yancama iinukes zayo. Kwakunjalo naseBelarus. UMzantsi Afrika uye wazincama ii-nukes zawo. IBrazil kunye neArgentina bakhetha ukungabi nee-nukes. UMzantsi Korea, iTaiwan, iSweden, neJapan ziye zakhetha ukungabi nazo ii-nukes. Ngoku, kuyinyani ukuba iLibya yancama inkqubo yayo yezixhobo zenyukliya kwaye yahlaselwa. Kwaye kuyinyani ukuba amazwe amaninzi angenazo izixhobo zenyukliya ahlaselwe: i-Iraq, i-Afghanistan, iSiriya, iYemen, iSomalia, njl. IYurophu, musa ukuthintela imfazwe enkulu ye-proxy kunye ne-US kunye neYurophu exhobisa i-Ukraine ngokuchasene neRashiya, musa ukumisa i-push enkulu yemfazwe ne-China, ungathinteli ama-Afghan kunye nama-Iraqi namaSiriya alwa nomkhosi wase-US, kwaye ube nayo yonke into. ininzi into enokuyenza ngokuqala imfazwe eUkraine njengoko ukungabikho kwabo kwenza ngokusilela ukuyinqanda.

Ingxaki ye-missile yaseCuba ibandakanya i-US inchasa imijukujelwa yaseSoviet eCuba, kunye ne-USSR echasa imijukujelwa yase-US eTurkey nase-Itali. Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, i-US izishiyile izivumelwano ezininzi zokuthotywa kwezixhobo, yagcina imijukujelwa yenyukliya eTurkey (kunye ne-Italiya, eJamani, eNetherlands, naseBelgium), kwaye yabeka iziseko ezitsha zemijukujelwa ePoland naseRomania. Phakathi kwezizathu ezithethelela iRashiya zokuhlasela iUkraine yayikukubeka izixhobo kufutshane nomda wayo kunanini na ngaphambili. Ukuzithethelela, akufuneki ukuthetha, akuzona izizathu, kwaye isifundo esifundwe eRashiya ukuba i-US kunye ne-NATO abayi kuphulaphula enye into ngaphandle kwemfazwe sisifundo sobuxoki njengoko sifundwa e-US naseYurophu. IRashiya yayinokuxhasa ulawulo lomthetho kwaye iphumelele inxalenye enkulu yehlabathi kwicala layo. Ikhethe ukungakwenzi oko.

Enyanisweni, iUnited States neRashiya aziyonxalenye yeNkundla yoLwaphulo-mthetho lweZizwe ngezizwe. I-United States yohlwaya abanye oorhulumente ngokuxhasa i-ICC. IUnited States neRashiya azithobeli izigwebo zeNkundla Yezizwe Ngezizwe Yobulungisa. I-US-backed coup e-Ukraine ngo-2014, i-US kunye ne-Russian imizamo yokuphumelela i-Ukraine iminyaka, ukubambisana kwengxabano e-Donbas, kunye nohlaselo lwaseRashiya lwe-2022 lugxininisa ingxaki kubunkokeli behlabathi.

Kumalungelo oluntu ali-18 izivumelwano, IRashiya iyinxalenye ye-11 kuphela, kunye ne-United States ukuya kwi-5 kuphela, njembalwa njengaso nasiphi na isizwe eMhlabeni. Zombini ezi zizwe zaphula izivumelwano ngokuthanda kwazo, kuquka i-United Nations Charter, i-Kellogg Briand Pact, kunye neminye imithetho echasene nemfazwe. Omabini la mazwe ala ukuxhasa kunye nokuchasa ngokuphandle ukuthotywa kwezixhobo ezinkulu kunye nezivumelwano zokulwa nezixhobo ezixhaswa luninzi lwehlabathi. Kananjalo akasixhasi iSivumelwano sokuThintelwa kweZixhobo zeNyukliya. Ayihambisani nemfuneko yokuthotywa kwezixhobo kwiSivumelwano sokuNgenisa iNyukliya, kwaye iUnited States igcina izixhobo zenyukliya kwezinye izizwe ezintlanu kwaye icinga ngokuzifaka ngaphezulu, ngelixa iRussia ibithetha ngokubeka ii-nukes eBelarus.

I-Russia kunye ne-United States zimi njengoorhulumente abakhohlakeleyo ngaphandle kweSivumelwano seZigcayiseli, iNgqungquthela yeZixhobo eziManyeneyo, iSivumelwano soRhwebo lweArms, kunye nezinye ezininzi. I-United States kunye neRussia ngabathengisi ababini abaphezulu bezixhobo kwihlabathi liphela, kunye nenani elikhulu lezixhobo ezithengisiweyo zaza zathunyelwa. Ngeli xesha iindawo ezininzi ezineemfazwe azenzi zixhobo kwaphela. Izixhobo zingeniswa kwiindawo ezininzi zehlabathi ukusuka kwiindawo ezimbalwa kakhulu. I-United States kunye neRussia ngabasebenzisi ababini abaphezulu bamandla e-veto kwiBhunga lezoKhuseleko le-UN, ngalinye lihlala livala idemokhrasi ngevoti enye.

IRashiya yayinokukuthintela uhlaselo lwaseUkraine ngokungayihlaseli iUkraine. IYurophu yayinokukuthintela uhlaselo lwaseUkraine ngokuxelela i-US neRussia ukuba bacinge ngeshishini labo. I-United States ngokuqinisekileyo ibinokukuthintela uhlaselo lwase-Ukraine nangaliphi na kula manyathelo alandelayo, apho iingcali zase-US zilumkise ukuba ziyafuneka ukunqanda imfazwe neRussia:

• Ukuphelisa i-NATO xa iSivumelwano saseWarsaw sapheliswa.
• Ukuyeka ukwandisa i-NATO.
• Ukuyeka ukuxhasa utshintsho lwemibala kunye nokubhukuqa.
• Ukuxhasa isenzo esingenalo ubundlobongela, uqeqesho lokuchasa ngaphandle kwezixhobo, kunye nokungathathi hlangothi.
• Ukutshintsha ukusuka kumafutha efosili.
• Ukuyeka ukuxhobisa iUkraine, ukuxhobisa iMpuma Yurophu, kunye nokwenza uqheliselo lwemfazwe eMpuma Yurophu.
• Ukwamkela amabango afanelekileyo eRussia ngoDisemba ka-2021.

Ngo-2014, iRashiya yenza isindululo sokuba iUkraine ihambelane neNtshona okanye iMpuma kodwa isebenze ngazo zombini. I-US yayikhaba ngawo omane loo mbono yaza yaxhasa ubhukuqo-mbuso lwasemkhosini olwafaka urhulumente oxhasa iNtshona.

Ngoku ka UTed Snider:

Ngo-2019, uVolodymyr Zelensky wonyulwa kwiqonga elibonisa uxolo kunye neRussia kunye nokusayina iSivumelwano saseMinsk. ISivumelwano saseMinsk sanikezela ngokuzimela kwimimandla yaseDonetsk naseLugansk yaseDonbas eyayivotele ukuzimela ngaphandle kwe-Ukraine emva kobuqili. Inike esona sisombululo sithembisayo sozakuzo. Ukujongana noxinzelelo lwasekhaya, nangona kunjalo, uZelensky uya kufuna inkxaso yase-US. Akazange ayifumane kwaye, ngamazwi kaRichard Sakwa, unjingalwazi wezoPolitiko zaseRashiya naseYurophu kwiYunivesithi yaseKent, 'watshitshiswa ngabalandeli bobuzwe.' UZelensky waphuma kwindlela yediplomacy kwaye wenqaba ukuthetha neenkokheli zeDonbas kunye nokuphumeza izivumelwano zeMinsk.

“Esileleyo ekuxhaseni uZelensky kwisisombululo sozakuzo kunye neRussia, iWashington emva koko yasilela ukumnyanzela ukuba abuyele ekuphunyezweni kweSivumelwano saseMinsk. USakwa uxelele lo mbhali ukuba, 'ngokubhekiselele eMinsk, i-US okanye i-EU ayifaki uxinzelelo olunzima kwi-Kyiv ukuba izalisekise inxalenye yayo yesivumelwano.' Nangona i-US yamnkele ngokusemthethweni iMinsk, uAnatol Lieven, ugxa wophando oluphezulu eRashiya naseYurophu kwiQuincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, uxelele lo mbhali, 'ayikho into ayenzileyo ukunyanzela iUkraine ukuba iyiphumeze.' Abantu baseUkraine banike uZelensky igunya lesisombululo sozakuzo. IWashington ayizange iyixhase okanye iyikhuthaze. ”

Ngelixa uMongameli wase-US u-Barack Obama ekuchasile ukuxhobisa i-Ukraine, uTrump kunye noBiden babekuthanda, kwaye ngoku iWashington iye yanda kakhulu. Emva kweminyaka esibhozo yokuncedisa icala laseUkraine kungquzulwano eDonbas, kunye namasebe omkhosi waseMelika njengeRAND Corporation evelisa iingxelo malunga nendlela yokufaka iRussia kwimfazwe eyonakalisayo eUkraine, i-US iye yala nawaphi na amanyathelo anokuthi enze uthethathethwano lokuphelisa imfazwe noxolo. Njengenkolelo engunaphakade yokuba uMongameli waseSyria sele eza kubhukuqwa nangawuphi na umzuzu, kunye nokuchaswa ngokuphindaphindiweyo kweendawo zokuhlala zoxolo kwelo lizwe, urhulumente wase-US, ngokutsho kukaMongameli Biden, uthanda ukubhukuqwa kukarhulumente waseRussia, nokuba unjani na. abaninzi Ukrainians bafa. Kwaye urhulumente waseUkraine ubonakala evumelana kakhulu. Umongameli waseUkraine uZelensky uxelelwe ukuba ziweyo Unikezelo loxolo kwiintsuku phambi kohlaselo ngokwemiqathango eya kuthi ekugqibeleni yamkelwe ngabo - ukuba kukho - bashiywe bephila.

Yimfihlo egcinwe kakuhle, kodwa uxolo aluyonkene okanye alunzima. Ukuqalisa imfazwe kunzima kakhulu. Kufuna umgudu omanyeneyo ukuphepha uxolo. I mi zekelo ezingqina eli bango libandakanya yonke imfazwe edlulileyo eMhlabeni. Umzekelo odla ngokuphakanyiswa xa kuthelekiswa neUkraine yiMfazwe yeGulf ka-1990-1991. Kodwa loo mzekelo uxhomekeke ekucimeni kwinkumbulo yethu edibeneyo/yequmrhu into yokuba urhulumente waseIraq wayekulungele ukuthethathethana ngokurhoxa eKuwait ngaphandle kwemfazwe kwaye ekugqibeleni wanikezela ngokurhoxa eKuwait kwiiveki ezintathu ngaphandle kwemiqathango. UKumkani waseJordani, uPopu, uMongameli waseFransi, uMongameli weSoviet Union, kunye nabanye abaninzi babongoze oko kuhlaliswa ngoxolo, kodwa i-White House yagxininisa "kwindlela yokugqibela" yemfazwe. I-Russia ibidwelisa into enokuthi ithathe ukuphelisa imfazwe e-Ukraine ukusukela ngaphambi kokuba imfazwe iqale-iimfuno ekufuneka zibalwe nezinye iimfuno, hayi izixhobo.

Kwabo banexesha lokufunda imbali kwaye baqonde ukuba uxolo lunokwenzeka ngokugqibeleleyo, kunokuba lula ukuqonda isiphene kumbono wokuzalisa ukuba i-NATO kufuneka yandiswe nokuba isoyikisa iRussia, kwaye nokuba iRussia ihlasela ukuyithintela. . Inkolelo yokuba urhulumente waseRussia angahlasela naphi na apho anokuthi abaleke nokuba yintoni na, nokuba yamkelwe kwi-NATO kunye ne-EU, okanye nokuba i-NATO iye yabhangiswa, ayinabungqina. Kodwa akuyomfuneko ukuba siyithathele ingqalelo. Inokuba ichanekile. Ngokuqinisekileyo kubonakala kufana nokuba yinyani kwi-US kunye nabanye oorhulumente. Kodwa ukwala ekwandiseni i-NATO bekungayi kuthintela iRussia ukuba ihlasele iUkraine kuba urhulumente waseRussia ngumsebenzi oncomekayo wokunceda abantu. Bekuya kuthintela iRussia ukuba ihlasele iUkraine kuba urhulumente waseRussia ebengenasizathu silungileyo sokuthengisela abantu abaphezulu baseRussia, uluntu lwaseRussia, okanye ilizwe.

Ngexesha le-20th Century War Cold kwakukho imizekelo-eminye yayo yaxutyushwa kwincwadi yamva nje ka-Andrew Cockburn - ye-US kunye nemikhosi yaseSoviet ebangela iziganeko eziphakamileyo nje xa elinye icala lalifuna inkxaso-mali yezixhobo ezongezelelweyo kurhulumente wayo. Ukuhlasela kweRussia eUkraine yenze okungakumbi kwi-NATO kunokuba i-NATO ibinokwenza iyodwa. Inkxaso ye-NATO yomkhosi e-Ukraine naseMpuma Yurophu kwiminyaka yakutshanje yenze okungakumbi kumkhosi waseRashiya kunokuba nabani na eRashiya wayenokulawula. Uluvo lokuba into efunekayo ngoku yeyona nto idale ungquzulwano lwangoku lufikelela ekuqinisekiseni iimbono zangaphambili ezifuna ukubuzwa.

Ingcamango yokuba iRashiya inorhulumente ombi kwaye ke ngoko kufuneka ibhukuqwe yinto embi ukuba amagosa ase-US athethe. Kuyo yonke indawo eMhlabeni inorhulumente ombi. Bafanele babhukuqwe bonke. Urhulumente wase-US uxhobe ngezixhobo kwaye uxhasa ngemali phantse bonke oorhulumente babi kakhulu emhlabeni, kwaye inyathelo lokuqala elilula lokuyeka ukwenza oko liyakhuthazwa kakhulu. Kodwa ukubhukuqa oorhulumente ngaphandle kwentshukumo enkulu yasekhaya edumileyo nezimeleyo engabanjwanga ngamandla angaphandle kunye neqela eliphakamileyo sisixhobo esiqinisekisiweyo esingenasiphelo sentlekele. Andazi ukuba yintoni na eyabuyisela uGeorge W. Bush kwisimo sangaphambili, kodwa ndimdala ngokwaneleyo ukuba ndingakhumbula xa ababukeli beendaba ngamaxesha athile baye bafunda ukuba ukubhukuqa oorhulumente kwaba yintlekele nangokwemiqathango yayo, kwaye umbono ophambili wokusasaza idemokhrasi uyakuba yintlekele. ube kukukhokela ngokuba ngumzekelo ngokuzama kwilizwe lakowabo.