Uloyiso lukaMongameli wase-Irani u-Rouhani kwakhona luvula indlela yokuba i-Iran iqhubeke neenzame zayo zokuhlangana kwakhona noluntu lwehlabathi kunye nokwandisa inkululeko ngaphakathi, uxela uTrita Parsi.
NguTrita Parsi, ConsortiumNews.
Ubugocigoci bezopolitiko baseIran buyaqhubeka buchukumisa. Ngaphandle kwenkqubo yezopolitiko eneziphene apho unyulo lungenabulungisa kwaye lukhululekile, uninzi lwabantu lukhethe indlela engenabundlobongela ukuzisa inkqubela phambili.
U-Hassan Rouhani, uMongameli weRiphabhlikhi yamaSilamsi yase-Iran, uthetha kwiNdibano yeZizwe eziManyeneyo, ngoSeptemba 22, 2016 (Ifoto ye-UN)
Bathathe inxaxheba kakhulu kunyulo ngeepesenti ezingama-75 - thelekisa oko kunyulo lwase-US ngo-2016, iipesenti ezingama-56 - kwaye banike uMongameli obambeleyo u-Hassan Rouhani uloyiso olukhulu nge-57 pesenti yevoti.
Kwimeko yengingqi, olu lonyulo luphawuleka ngakumbi. Kwinkoliso yoMbindi Mpuma, unyulo alubanjwa. Thatha umzekelo waseSaudi Arabia, ukhetho lukaMongameli uDonald Trump kuhambo lwakhe lokuqala lwangaphandle.
Kukho izinto ezimbalwa esinokuzithetha malunga nentsingiselo yesenzo esihlangeneyo sabantu baseIran.
Okokuqala, kwakhona, abantu base-Irani bavotela umgqatswa ekukholelwa ukuba uthandwa yiNkokeli ePhakamileyo yase-Iran uAyatollah Ali Khamenei. Le ngoku ipateni eyomeleleyo.
Okwesibini, ama-Irani akhalimela amaqela aphikisayo aselubhacweni kunye nee-Hawks zaseWashington kunye nee-neocons ezibize abantu base-Irani ukuba balwele unyulo okanye bavotele umgqatswa oqinileyo u-Ebrahim Raisi ukuze kukhawuleziswe ungquzulwano. Ngokucacileyo, ezi zinto azinanto ilandelayo eIran.
Okwesithathu, ngaphandle kokujongelwa phantsi kukaTrump isivumelwano senyukliya kunye ne-Iran, kwaye ngaphandle kweengxaki ezibalulekileyo ngenkqubo yoncedo lwezohlwayo eshiye abantu abaninzi base-Irani bedanile kwisivumelwano senyukliya, abantu base-Irani basakhetha idiplomacy, detente kunye nokumodareyitha kumgca wokujongana nolawulo lwangaphambili lwase-Irani. I-Iran namhlanje lelinye lamazwe ambalwa ehlabathini apho umyalezo wokumodareyitha kunye nokuchasana noluntu kukukhusela uloyiso lonyulo olukhulu.
UGunyaziso lwamaLungelo oLuntu
Okwesine, nangona uRouhani esilela kwizithembiso zakhe zokuphucula imeko yamalungelo oluntu e-Iran, ama-Irani kunye neenkokheli zeenkokheli ze-Green Movement zamnika ithuba lesibini. Kodwa ngoku unegunya elimandla – kunye nezizathu ezimbalwa. Ngoku lixesha lokuba afezekise izithembiso ezaphefumlela amashumi ezigidi zabantu base-Irani ukuba bamnyule kabini njengomongameli.
Umntwana wase-Irani ebambe ifoto yeNkokeli ePhakamileyo yase-Iran u-Ali Khamenei kwenye yembonakalo yakhe esidlangalaleni. (Ifoto yase-Iranian karhulumente)
Kufuneka athathe inyathelo eliqinisekileyo lokukhusela amalungelo oluntu kunye nenkululeko yoluntu yabantu base-Iranian, aqhubele phambili ubudlelwane obuphuculweyo nehlabathi, kwaye akhuthaze ukukhula koqoqosho kubantu base-Iranian. Amandla angqongqo asemva kokubanjwa kwe-Iran ngokungekho mthethweni kunye nokubulawa kwabantu ngokutyhoboza asenokungaphenduli ngokuthe ngqo kuRouhani, kodwa abantu baseIran abanyulileyo balindele ukuba enze okungakumbi kwikota yakhe yesibini ukuzisa utshintsho.
Ukungaphumeleli ukwenza oko kubeka emngciphekweni isizukulwana sabantu base-Irani kwinkolelo yokuba ilizwi labo linokwenza umahluko, elinokuthi linike ikamva le-Iran kumazwi angqongqo anokuthi alibuyisele ilizwe ekubeni likheswa kunye nokujongana neNtshona.
Okwesihlanu, ngelixa iSaudi Arabia ibamba uTrump kwaye imtyhala ukuba abuyele kumgaqo-nkqubo wokuhlukaniswa ngokupheleleyo kwe-Iran, intloko yoMgaqo-nkqubo weManyano yaseYurophu uFederica Mogherini wavuyisana noRouhani ngoloyiso lwakhe lonyulo kwaye waphinda wayibophelela i-EU kwisivumelwano senyukliya. Iziphumo zolonyulo ziya komeleza ukuzinikela kwe-EU ekuqinisekiseni ubukho besivumelwano kunye nokuzinikela kwayo kwisikhokelo sokhuseleko esibandakanyayo kuMbindi Mpuma.
Ngenxa yoko, i-EU iyakuchasa ilinge likaTrump kunye neSaudi Arabia lokujongana ne-Iran. Oku kubeka ulawulo lukaTrump kwakhona ngaphandle kwe-sync kunye neYurophu kunye namahlakani ase-US aseNtshona kumbandela obalulekileyo wokhuseleko.
Unxibelelwano ngeMfazwe
Okwesithandathu, abantu base-Irani baphinde bavuma umgaqo-nkqubo wengxoxo kunye neNtshona, kodwa umbuzo ngowokuba uTrump uyakulivala inqindi lakhe kwaye amkele le festile yediplomacy. Kanye njengokuba ingxaki yenyukliya yasonjululwa ngothethathethwano, iindawo eziseleyo zongquzulwano phakathi kwe-US ne-Iran nazo zinokusonjululwa ngokwezopolitiko, kubandakanya iSyria neYemen. Yile nto ifunwa nguMbindi Mpuma ngoku - ngakumbi idiplomacy, hayi ukuthengiswa kweengalo ngaphezulu.
Unobhala wezoKhuseleko uJim Mattis wamkela iSekela leNkosana yaseSaudi kunye noMphathiswa wezoKhuselo uMohammed bin Salman kwiPentagon, ngoMatshi 16, 2017. (Isithombe seDoD nguSgt. Amber I. Smith)
Okwesixhenxe, iNkongolo kufuneka iphephe ukujongela phantsi umyalezo ocacileyo wokuzibandakanya othunyelwe ngabantu baseIran kwaye uxhobise abangqongqo ngokutyhala umthetho wezohlwayo ezixhokonxayo emva kweziphumo zonyulo. Izohlwayo ezitsha zeSenethi zicwangciselwe ukuphawulwa kwikomiti kule veki izayo. Enjani yona impendulo eyoyikekayo kubantu baseIran emva kokuba bevotele idiplomacy kunye nokumodareyitha.
Okokugqibela, umzabalazo wamandla e-Iran uya ngokuya uguqukela kumbuzo wokuba ngubani oza kuphumelela uAyatollah Khamenei kwaye abe yiNkokeli ePhakamileyo yaseIran. Kukholelwa ngokubanzi ukuba uRouhani usijongile esi sikhundla. Ngoloyiso lwakhe olukhulu, uye wawaphucula amathemba akhe. Ukusa kumlinganiselo othile, le yeyona nto yayimalunga nolunyulo lukamongameli.
UTrita Parsi ngumseki kunye nomongameli weBhunga leSizwe lase-Iranian laseMelika kunye nengcali kubudlelwane base-US-Iranian, ipolitiki yangaphandle yase-Iranian, kunye ne-geopolitics yoMbindi Mpuma. Ungumbhali ophumelele ibhaso leencwadi ezimbini, I-Treacher Alliance-IiNdibaniselwano eziMfihlo zakwa-Israyeli, i-Iran kunye ne-US (Yale University Press, 2007) kunye Umqulu omnye weDayisi – iDiplomacy ka-Obama kunye ne-Iran (Yale University Press, 2012). U-tweets ku @tparsi.
