ngu-Adam Johnson, ngo-Oktobha 17, 2017
ukusuka Fair.org
Xa kuziwa eIran, ngaba iinyani ezisisiseko zibalulekile? Ngokucacileyo akunjalo, kuba uninzi lweentatheli zigcina ingxelo ngokungakhathaliyo ukuba iIran ine "inkqubo yezixhobo zenyukliya" xa ingenayo-ingxaki i-FAIR inike ingxelo ngayo kule minyaka idlulileyo (umz., 9/9/15). Makhe sijonge ezinye zeendawo ezisasaza obu buxoki kwezi ntsuku zintlanu zidlulileyo:
- I-Business Insider (10/13/17): "Isivumelwano, esibizwa ngokusemthethweni siSicwangciso sokuSebenza esiBanzi esiHlangeneyo (JCPOA), sijolise ekukhuthazeni i-Iran ukuba ithintele. inkqubo yezixhobo zenyukliya ngokususa izohlwayo zezoqoqosho zehlabathi eziqhwalelayo.”
- New Yorker (10/16/17): “Ngenye imva kwemini ngasekupheleni kukaSeptemba, unobhala welizwe uRex Tillerson wabiza intlanganiso yamazwe amathandathu awayehlanganisene ngo-2015 ukuze anciphise Inkqubo yezixhobo zenyukliya yaseIran. "
- Washington Post (10/16/17): “Ulawulo lukwacingela ukutshintsha okanye ukusirhoxisa isivumelwano samazwe ngamazwe malunga ne-Iran inkqubo yezixhobo zenyukliya. "
- CNN (10/17/17): “Ekuvuleni kwakhona isivumelwano senyukliya, [uTrump] usemngciphekweni wokuba i-Iran iqhubele phambili inkqubo yezixhobo zenyukliya Ngexesha apho ejongene nomceli mngeni wenyukliya ombi kakhulu ovela kuMntla Korea angenakuwusombulula.”
Ingxaki ngazo zonke ezi zicatshulwa: I-Iran ayinayo inkqubo yezixhobo zenyukliya. Inenkqubo yamandla enyukliya yasekuhlaleni, kodwa ayikho eyenzelwe ukwakha izixhobo. Amazwe angaphezu kwama-30 aneenkqubo zenyukliya ezingenanto yakwenza nomkhosi; kuphela abambalwa-kubandakanywa, kunjalo, i-US kunye no-Israyeli-abanenyukliya izikhali iinkqubo. Enye isetyenziselwa ukuqinisa izixeko, enye isetyenziselwa ukuzilinganisa.
Ukuba uyathandabuza, jonga nje uvavanyo luka-2007 ngazo zonke ii-arhente zobuntlola zase-US ezili-16 (ewe, abo bangama-16 Iiarhente zobuntlola zase-US), ezafumanisa ukuba i-Iran “iyekile” inkqubo yayo yezixhobo zenyukliya. Okanye jonga kuQikelelo lobuNhloli lweSizwe ngo-2012, oluthi gqityiwe kwakhona ukuba "akukho bungqina bunzima bokuba i-Iran ithathe isigqibo sokwakha ibhombu yenyukliya." Okanye sinokumamela i-arhente yobuntlola yakwa-Israel i-Mossad, eyavumelana novavanyo lobuntlola base-US (Haaretz, 3/18/12).
"I-Iran Deal," eyaziwa ngokusesikweni njengeSicwangciso esiDibeneyo sokuSebenza (JCPOA), sakhelwe ekuthinteleni inkqubo yenyukliya yase-Iran, ngenxa yoloyiko-ilungile okanye hayi-ukuba ngenye imini inokuthi ibe yinkqubo yezixhobo zenyukliya. Kodwa okwangoku, akukho bungqina, ngaphantsi kokuvumelana, ukuba i-Iran inenkqubo esebenzayo yezixhobo zenyukliya. I-JCPOA ayinakusetyenziswa njenge ngomntu ngamnye ubungqina bokuba inkqubo enjalo ikhona namhlanje; ngokwenene, yenzelwe ngokukodwa ukuthintela inkqubo enjalo ekuphuhliseni endleleni.
Ukwahluka kancinci kancinci kweli canard kuxa iivenkile zicebisa ukuba i-JCPOA yamisa inkqubo yezixhobo eqhubekayo-nangona bengayenzi impazamo yokuthi isekhona: I-JCPOA “ibize ukupheliswa kwezohlwayo zoqoqosho eIran ngokutshintshiselana neTehran. iyeka inkqubo yayo yezixhobo zenyukliya,” USA namhlanje (10/13/17) wabhala. Ubukrelekrele base-US kunye nabase-Israel benza ibango lokuba i-Iran yayikhe yaba nenkqubo yezixhobo zenyukliya-kodwa bathi yaphela ngo-2003, hayi ngo-2015 ngenxa ye-JCPOA.
Umahluko phakathi kwamandla enyukliya kunye nezixhobo zenyukliya, ngokuqinisekileyo, awuyonto encinci. Ngalo lonke ixesha amajelo eendaba exela ngokungakhathali i-Iran ine “nuclear izikhaliinkqubo” kunokuba “inkqubo yenyukliya” (okanye, ngcono, “amandla enyukliya” okanye “inkqubo yamandla enyukliya”), baqhubela phambili phambili nentsomi yokuba iinjongo ze-Iran okanye “amabhongo” kukwakha ibhombu yenyukliya, nto leyo thina andinabo ubungqina obuyenzayo okanye uceba ukwenza-ubuncinci ukususela ekubeni uAyatollah Ali Khamenei wakhupha i-fatwa ngokuchasene nokwakhiwa kwezixhobo zenyukliya kwi-2003 (Nkqubo welizwe langaphandle, 10/16/14).
Ke kutheni abanye abacholacholi beendaba beqhubeka bethetha ngale nto? Izizathu ezimbalwa: Yimantra ephinda-phinda iad infinitum, kwaye iintatheli kunye neepundits zihlala ziphindaphinda ibinzana eliphindaphindwayo ngokungenangqondo. Abanye, njengengcaphephe yezixhobo zenyukliya uJeffrey Lewis kwiZiko leZifundo zokuNgananzi kwiZiko laseMiddlebury, bacinga ukuba ngumba weentatheli ezingazi ukuba ziwuchaza njani umbono ontsokothileyo.
“Ndihlala ndiyibona le ngongoma [malunga nenkqubo yokulwa nezixhobo zomkhosi] iphithene. Andiqondi ukuba bububi, ngumbhali okanye umhleli nje ongayazi indlela yokuvakalisa uluvo,” utshilo kumakhasi onxibelelwano. "I-JCPOA ibeka imilinganiselo enyanzelisa inkqubo yamandla enyukliya yase-Iran ukubonelela ngentembelo yokuba inkqubo ihleli iseluxolweni," wongezelela, enika umzekelo wendlela loo mbono inokubonakaliswa ngayo.
Esinye isizathu esiphambili sobu buxoki obuphindaphindiweyo, njenge-FAIR (7/6/17) kuphawulwe emva kwe ENew York Times kabini "ngempazamo" yatyhola i-Iran ngokwenza i-9/11 (enye ye-smears ehamba ingalungiswanga iminyaka engaphezu kwemithathu), kukuba umntu unokuthetha nantoni na malunga ne-Iran ngaphandle kobuchwephesha okanye ukubuyisela uluntu. Ngenxa yokuba i-Iran iluTshaba olusemthethweni lwase-US, kwaye iinjongo zayo ke ngoko zihlala zibonwa zikhohlakele, umbono wokuba iceba ukwaphula iSivumelwano sokuNgananzi seNyukliya kunye nokwakha isixhobo senyukliya ithathwa njengendawo enikiweyo. Ukunqongophala kobungqina obunzima boku akunamsebenzi: Iinjongo zabo bakwi-crosshairs yamandla ase-US zihlala zibonakaliswa njengezigxeka kwaye zikhohlakele; abo base-US kunye namahlakani ayo unobubele kwaye uthembekile. Iinjongo ezikhohlakeleyo zase-Iran ziseto nje esingagqibekanga—nokuba kukho ubungqina obuninzi obubonisa ngokuchasene noko.
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UAdam Johnson ngumhlalutyi onegalelo kwi-FAIR.org.
