Indlela INtshona Yayihlahlela Ngayo Indlela Yezigrogriso zeNyukliya zaseRashiya phezu kweUkraine

nguMilan Rai, Iindaba zoxolo, Matshi 4, 2022

Ngaphezulu koloyiko kunye noloyiko olubangelwa luhlaselo lwangoku lwaseRashiya e-Ukraine, abaninzi baye bamangaliswa kwaye boyikiswa ngumongameli waseRashiya u-Vladimir Putin amazwi kunye nezenzo zamva nje malunga nezixhobo zakhe zenyukliya.

UJens Stoltenberg, unobhala-jikelele womanyano lwe-NATO oluxhobe ngenyukliya, uye ebizwa Intshukumo yamva nje yaseRussia yenyukliya ngaphezulu kweUkraine 'ngokungakhathaliyo' kunye 'nentetho eyingozi'. Ilungu lePalamente yaseBritane uTobias Ellwood, ongusihlalo wekomiti yokhuselo yendlu yomanyano, lumkisa (kwakhona nge-27 kaFebruwari) ukuba umongameli waseRussia uVladimir Putin 'angasebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya eUkraine'. Usihlalo weConservative wekomiti ekhethiweyo yemicimbi yangaphandle, uTom Tugendhat, wongezelela nge-28 kaFebruwari: 'akunakwenzeka ukuba umyalelo womkhosi waseRashiya wokusebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya kwindawo yedabi unokunikwa.'

Ekupheleni kwezinto, uStephen Walt, unjingalwazi wobudlelwane bezizwe ngezizwe kwiHarvard's Kennedy School of Government, xelelwe le ENew York Times: 'Amathuba am okufa kwimfazwe yenyukliya asavakala emancinci kakhulu, nokuba makhulu kunayizolo.'

Nokuba makhulu okanye mancinci kangakanani na amathuba emfazwe yenyukliya, izoyikiso zenyukliya zaseRussia ziyaphazamisa kwaye azikho mthethweni; zifana nobugrogrisi benyukliya.

Ngelishwa, ezi ayizozoyikiso zokuqala ezibonwe lihlabathi. Izisongelo zenyukliya zenziwe ngaphambili, kubandakanywa - kunzima njengoko kunokubakho ukukholelwa - yi-US kunye neBritane.

Iindlela ezimbini ezisisiseko

Zimbini iindlela ezisisiseko onokukhupha ngazo isoyikiso senyukliya: ngamazwi akho okanye ngezenzo zakho (into oyenzayo ngezixhobo zakho zenyukliya).

Urhulumente waseRussia wenze zombini iintlobo zemiqondiso kwezi ntsuku zimbalwa zidlulileyo kunye neeveki. UPutin wenze iintetho ezisoyikisayo kwaye uye washukuma kwaye wahlanganisa izixhobo zenyukliya zaseRussia.

Masicacise, uPutin sele esele usebenzisa Izixhobo zenyukliya zaseRashiya.

Impempe yomkhosi wase-US uDaniel Ellsberg uye wachaza ukuba izixhobo zenyukliya zinjalo ezisetyenzisiweyo xa kusenziwa izoyikiso ezilolo hlobo, ngendlela 'esetyenziswa ngayo umpu xa uwukhomba entloko umntu xa ungquzulana ngokuthe ngqo, nokuba isiqhushumbisi sitsaliwe okanye asitsalwanga'.

Ngezantsi eso sicatshulwa ngokomxholo. Ellsberg echaza ukuba izoyikiso zenyukliya zenziwe amaxesha amaninzi ngaphambili - yi-US:

'Umbono oqhelekileyo kubo bonke abantu baseMelika wokuba "akukho zixhobo zenyukliya zisetyenzisiweyo ukusukela eNagasaki" ayichananga. Ayisiyiyo imeko yokuba izixhobo zenyukliya zase-US ziye zafumba ngokuhamba kweminyaka - singaphezulu kwe-30,000 yazo ngoku, emva kokudiliza amawaka amaninzi aphelelwe lixesha - angasetyenziswanga kwaye angenakusebenziseka, gcina umsebenzi omnye wokuthintela ukusetyenziswa kwazo ngokuchasene nathi. IiSoviet. Ngokuphindaphindiweyo, ngokuqhelekileyo ngasese kuluntu lwaseMelika, izixhobo zenyukliya zase-US zisetyenzisiwe, ngeenjongo ezahlukeneyo: ngendlela echanekileyo osetyenziswa ngayo umpu xa uwukhomba entloko yomntu ekudibaneni ngokuthe ngqo, nokuba ngaba ukudubula okanye akunjalo. iyatsalwa.'

'Izixhobo zenyukliya zase-US zisetyenziselwe iinjongo ezahluke ngokupheleleyo: ngendlela echanekileyo osetyenziswa ngayo umpu xa uwukhomba entloko umntu xa ungquzulana ngokuthe ngqo, nokuba isiqhushumbisi sitsaliwe okanye hayi.'

U-Ellsberg wanika uluhlu lwezisongelo zenyukliya ze-12 zase-US, ukususela kwi-1948 ukuya kwi-1981. (Wayebhala ngo-1981.) Uluhlu lunokwandiswa namhlanje. Eminye imizekelo yamva nje zanikwa kwi I-Bulletin ye-Atomic Scientists in 2006. Isihloko kuxoxwa ngokukhululekileyo kakhulu kwi US kunokuba UK. Nkqu isebe likarhulumente US uluhlu eminye imizekelo koko ikubiza ngokuba yi-US 'malinge okusebenzisa isoyikiso semfazwe yenyukliya ukuphumeza iinjongo zozakuzo'. Enye yeencwadi zamva nje ngalo mbandela yile UJoseph Gerson's Ubukhosi kunye nebhombu: Indlela i-US ezisebenzisa ngayo izixhobo zeNyukliya ukulawula iHlabathi (Pluto, 2007).

Usongelo lwenyukliya lukaPutin

Ukubuyela ngoku, umongameli uPutin wathi nge-24 kaFebruwari, kwintetho yakhe ebhengeza uhlaselo:

'Ngoku ndingathanda ukuthetha into ebaluleke kakhulu kwabo banokuhendeka ukuba bangenelele kolu phuhliso bangaphandle. Kungakhathaliseki ukuba ngubani ozama ukuma endleleni yethu okanye ngaphezu koko edala izisongelo kwilizwe lethu nakubantu bethu, bamele bazi ukuba iRashiya iya kusabela ngokukhawuleza, yaye imiphumo iya kuba ngendlela ongazange uyibone kuyo yonke imbali yakho.’

Oku kwafundwa ngabaninzi, ngokuchanekileyo, njengesongelo senyukliya.

Faka phakathi yaqhubeka:

Ngokubhekiselele kwimicimbi yezomkhosi, nasemva kokuchithwa kwe-USSR kunye nokuphulukana nenxalenye enkulu yezakhono zayo, iRussia yanamhlanje ihlala lelinye lawona mazwe anamandla enyukliya. Ngaphezu koko, inenzuzo ethile kwizixhobo ezininzi zokusika. Kulo mxholo, kufuneka kungabikho mathandabuzo kuye nabani na ukuba nawuphi na umntu onokuthi ahlasele uya kujongana nokoyiswa kunye neziphumo ezibi ukuba uhlasele ilizwe lethu ngokuthe ngqo.'

Kwicandelo lokuqala, isoyikiso senyukliya sasinxamnye nabo 'baphazamisa' kuhlaselo. Kweli candelo lesibini, isoyikiso senyukliya kuthiwa sichasene 'nabahlaseli' 'abahlasela ilizwe lethu ngokuthe ngqo'. Ukuba sicacisa le propaganda, uPutin uphantse wasongela apho ukuba asebenzise iBhobho kuyo nayiphi na imikhosi yangaphandle 'ehlasela ngokuthe ngqo' iiyunithi zaseRashiya ezibandakanyekayo kuhlaselo.

Ngoko zombini izicatshulwa zinokuthetha into enye: 'Ukuba amagunya aseNtshona abandakanyeka kwezomkhosi aze enze iingxaki ekuhlaselweni kwethu kwe-Ukraine, sinokusebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya, sidala "imiphumo enjengaleyo ungazange uyibone kwimbali yakho yonke".'

Isoyikiso senyukliya sikaGeorge HW Bush

Ngelixa olu hlobo lolwimi oluphezulu lunxulunyaniswa ngoku nowayesakuba ngumongameli wase-US uDonald Trump, ayahlukanga kakhulu kuleyo isetyenziswa ngumongameli wase-US uGeorge HW Bush.

NgoJanuwari 1991, uBush wakhupha isoyikiso senyukliya e-Iraq ngaphambi kweMfazwe yeGulf ye-1991. Ubhale umyalezo othunyelwe ngesandla ngunobhala welizwe laseMelika uJames Baker kumphathiswa wezangaphandle wase-Iraq, uTariq Aziz. Kweyakhe ileta, Bush wabhala kwinkokeli yaseIraq uSaddam Hussein:

'Manditsho, kananjalo, ukuba iUnited States ayisayi kukunyamezela ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zekhemikhali okanye zebhayoloji okanye ukutshatyalaliswa kwemimandla yeoli yaseKuwait. Ngaphaya koko, uya kuba noxanduva ngokuthe ngqo ngezenzo zobunqolobi ngokuchasene nalo naliphi na ilungu lombutho. Abantu baseMelika baya kufuna eyona mpendulo inamandla. Wena kunye nelizwe lakho niya kuhlawula ixabiso elibi ukuba niyalela izenzo ezinje ngokungakhathali.'

Baker wongezelela isilumkiso somlomo. Ukuba i-Iraq isebenzise izixhobo zekhemikhali okanye zebhayoloji ngokuchasene nemikhosi yase-US ehlaselayo, 'Abantu baseMelika baya kufuna impindezelo. Kwaye sinazo iindlela zokuyiqinisekisa…. [T]eyakhe ayisosisongelo, sisithembiso.' Umbhaki waya kutsho ukuba, ukuba izixhobo ezinjalo zisetyenzisiwe, injongo yase-US 'ayiyi kuba yinkululeko ye-Kuwait, kodwa ukupheliswa kolawulo lwangoku lwase-Iraq'. (U-Aziz wala ukuyithatha le leta.)

Isoyikiso senyukliya sase-US kwi-Iraq ngoJanuwari 1991 sinokufana okuthile nesoyikiso sikaPutin sika-2022.

Kuzo zombini ezi meko, isoyikiso sasinxulumene nephulo elithile lomkhosi kwaye, ngandlel’ ithile, yayilikhaka lenyukliya.

Kwimeko yase-Iraq, isoyikiso sikaBush senyukliya sasijoliswe ngokukodwa ekuthinteleni ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo ezithile (iikhemikhali kunye nebhayoloji) kunye neentlobo ezithile zezenzo zase-Iraqi (ubugrogrisi, ukutshatyalaliswa kweendawo zeoli zaseKuwait).

Namhlanje, isoyikiso sikaPutin asicaci kangako. UMatthew Harries waseBritane we-RUSI yokucinga yomkhosi, xelelwe le Guardian ukuba iingxelo zikaPutin, kwimeko yokuqala, ukoyikiswa okulula: 'sinokulimaza, kwaye ukulwa nathi kuyingozi'. Kwakhona babesisikhumbuzo eNtshona ukuba bangahambi kakhulu bexhasa urhulumente waseUkraine. U-Harries uthe: 'Kungaba iRashiya iceba ukunyuka okukhohlakeleyo e-Ukraine kwaye oku "kugcinwe" isilumkiso kwiNtshonalanga.' Kule meko, isoyikiso senyukliya likhaka lokukhusela imikhosi yokuhlasela kwi-NATO izixhobo ngokubanzi, kungekhona naluphi na uhlobo lwesixhobo.

'Kusemthethweni kwaye kunengqiqo'

Xa umbuzo wokuba semthethweni kwezixhobo zenyukliya wawuphambi kweNkundla yeHlabathi ngo-1996, isoyikiso senyukliya sase-US e-Iraq ngo-1991 sakhankanywa ngomnye wabagwebi kwimbono yakhe ebhaliweyo. Ijaji yeNkundla yeHlabathi uStephen Schwebel (ovela e-US) wabhala ukuba isoyikiso sikaBush/Baker senyukliya, kunye nempumelelo yaso, yabonisa ukuba, 'kwezinye iimeko, izoyikiso zokusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya - ukuba zisahleli zizixhobo ezingathintelwanga ngumthetho wamazwe ngamazwe - zinokuba semthethweni kwaye zibe sengqiqweni.'

USchwebel waxoxa ukuba, ngenxa yokuba i-Iraq ayizange isebenzise izixhobo zekhemikhali okanye zebhayoloji emva kokufumana isoyikiso senyukliya yaseBush / Baker, ngokucacileyo. kuba ifumene lo myalezo, isoyikiso senyukliya yayiyinto elungileyo:

Ngaloo ndlela kukho ubungqina obumangalisayo obubonisa ukuba umhlaseli wayethintelwe okanye wayethintelwe ekusebenziseni izixhobo ezingekho mthethweni zokutshabalalisa imikhosi kunye namazwe alungelelaniswe ngokuchasene nokuhlasela kwawo kwikhwelo leZizwe eziManyeneyo ngento lowo umhlaseli abona ngathi usisoyikiso kuyo. sebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya ngokuchasene nayo ukuba iqale isebenzise izixhobo zentshabalalo enkulu ngokuchasene nemikhosi yomanyano. Ngaba inokugcinwa ngokunzulu into yokuba ukubalwa kukaMnu. Ngokuqinisekileyo imigaqo yoMnqophiso weZizwe eziManyeneyo yaxhaswa kunokuba igqitywe sisisongelo.'

Kusenokubakho ijaji yaseRashiya, kwixesha elizayo kwixesha elizayo, eliphikisa ukuba isoyikiso senyukliya sikaPutin kwakhona 'sizinzile kunokuba sigqithise' imigaqo ye-UN Charter (kunye nomthetho wamazwe ngamazwe) kuba yayisebenza 'ekuthinteleni' ukuphazamiseka kwe-NATO. .

ETaiwan, ngo-1955

Omnye umzekelo wesoyikiso senyukliya sase-US esikhunjulwa eWashington DC 'njengesisebenzayo' safika ngo-1955, phezu kweTaiwan.

Ngexesha leNgxaki yokuQala yaseTaiwan Strait, eyaqala ngoSeptemba 1954, uMkhosi waseTshayina wamaKomanisi weNkululeko yaBantu (PLA) wanisa umlilo wokudubula kwiziqithi zaseQuemoy naseMatsu (elawulwa ngurhulumente waseTaiwan waseGuomindang/KMT). Kwiintsuku nje ezimbalwa zokuqalisa koqhushumbo, iinkosi ezihlangeneyo zase-US zacebisa ukuba kusetyenziswe izixhobo zenyukliya ngokuchasene ne-China ukuphendula. Kangangeenyanga ezithile, loo nto yahlala iyincoko yangasese, ukuba inzulu.

I-PLA yaqhuba imisebenzi yasemkhosini. (Iziqithi ezibandakanyekayo zikufutshane kakhulu kumhlaba omkhulu. Enye imalunga neemayile ezili-10 ukusuka elunxwemeni ukusuka eTshayina ngelixa ingaphezu kweemayile ezili-100 ukusuka kwisiqithi esikhulu saseTaiwan.) I-KMT yaqhuba imisebenzi yomkhosi kumhlaba omkhulu.

Ngomhla we-15 kuMatshi 1955, unobhala welizwe lase-US uJohn Foster Dulles xelelwe inkomfa yabezindaba ukuba i-US inokungenelela kakuhle kwingxabano yaseTaiwan ngezixhobo zenyukliya: 'izixhobo ezincinci zeathom… zinika ithuba loloyiso kwithafa ledabi ngaphandle kokwenzakalisa abemi'.

Lo myalezo womelezwa ngumongameli wase-US ngosuku olulandelayo. UDwight D Eisenhower xelelwe Umshicileli wokuba, kuwo nawuphi na umlo, 'apho ezi zinto [izixhobo zenyukliya] zisetyenziselwa ngokungqongqo iithagethi zomkhosi kunye neenjongo ezingqongqo zomkhosi, andiboni sizathu sokuba kutheni zingasetyenziswa kanye njengokuba ubuya kusebenzisa imbumbulu okanye nantoni na eyenye. '.

Ngosuku olulandelayo, usekela-mongameli uRichard Nixon wathi: 'Iziqhushumbisi zeathom ezinobuchule ngoku ziqhelekile kwaye ziya kusetyenziswa ngokuchasene nokujoliswe kuko nakuphi na amandla andlongondlongo' kwiPasifiki.

U-Eisenhower wabuya ngosuku olulandelayo nolwimi olungakumbi 'lwembumbulu': imfazwe yenyukliya elinganiselweyo yayisisicwangciso esitsha senyukliya apho 'usapho olutsha olubizwa ngokuba lubuchule okanye lwezixhobo zenyukliya' lunokuba 'esetyenziswa njengeembumbulu'

Ezi yayizizoyikiso zikawonke-wonke zenyukliya ngokuchasene neTshayina, eyayililizwe elingelonyukliya. (I-China ayizange ivavanye ibhombu yayo yokuqala yenyukliya kude kube yi-1964.)

Ngabucala, umkhosi wase-US ekhethiweyo iithagethi zenyukliya ezibandakanya iindlela, imizila kaloliwe kunye neendawo zomoya ngaselunxwemeni olusemazantsi eTshayina kunye nezixhobo zenyukliya zase-US zithunyelwe kwisiseko sase-US e-Okinawa, eJapan. Umkhosi wase-US ulungiselele ukuphambukisa izixhobo zenyukliya ziye eTaiwan.

I-China yayeka ukuhlasela iziqithi zeQuemoy kunye neMatsu ngomhla woku-1 kuMeyi ka-1955.

Ekusekweni komgaqo-nkqubo wangaphandle wase-US, zonke ezi zoyikiso zenyukliya ezichasene ne-China zibonwa njengosetyenziso oluyimpumelelo lwezixhobo zenyukliya zase-US

NgoJanuwari 1957, uDulles wabhiyozela esidlangalaleni ukusebenza kwezisongelo zenyukliya zase-US ngokuchasene neTshayina. Yena xelelwe ubomi ukuba izisongelo zaseUnited States zokuqhushumba ixhoba laseTshayina ngezixhobo zenyukliya ziye zazisa iinkokeli zayo kwitafile yothethathethwano eKorea. Wabanga ukuba ulawulo luthintele iChina ekuthumeleni imikhosi eVietnam ngokuthumela abathwali beenqwelomoya ezimbini zase-US zixhobe ngezixhobo zenyukliya ezinobuchule kuLwandle lwaseChina ngo-1954. UDulles wongeze ukuba izoyikiso ezifanayo zokuhlasela iChina ngezixhobo zenyukliya 'ekugqibeleni zabamisa eFormosa' (Taiwan). ).

Ekusekweni komgaqo-nkqubo wangaphandle wase-US, zonke ezi zoyikiso zenyukliya ezichasene neTshayina zibonwa njengosetyenziso oluyimpumelelo lwezixhobo zenyukliya zase-US, imizekelo eyimpumelelo yokuxhatshazwa kwenyukliya (igama elihloniphekileyo lithi 'idiplomacy yeathom').

Ezi zezinye zeendlela iNtshona ivule indlela yezoyikiso zenyukliya zikaPutin namhlanje.

(Entsha, iyoyikisa, iinkcukacha malunga kufuphi ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya kwi-Second Straits Crisis ngo-1958 phendla nguDaniel Ellsberg ngo-2021. Yena tweeted ngelo xesha: 'Qaphela ku-@JoeBiden: funda kule mbali iyimfihlo, kwaye ungaphindi obu bubi.')

isibulali

Unokwenza izoyikiso zenyukliya ngaphandle kwamagama, ngezinto ozenzayo ngezixhobo ngokwazo. Ngokuzisondeza kufutshane nongquzulwano, okanye ngokunyusa inqanaba lokulumkisa ngenyukliya, okanye ngokwenza umthambo wezixhobo zenyukliya, urhulumente angathumela ngokufanelekileyo uphawu lwenyukliya; yenza isoyikiso senyukliya.

UPutin uye wahambisa izixhobo zenyukliya zaseRashiya, wazibeka kwindawo ephakamileyo, kwaye wavula ithuba lokuba azithumele eBelarus. Abamelwane baseBelarus eUkraine, yayiyindawo yokuphehlelela imikhosi yokuhlasela yasentla kwiintsuku ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo, kwaye ngoku ithumele amajoni ayo ukuba ajoyine umkhosi wokuhlasela waseRussia.

Iqela leengcaphephe wabhala kwi I-Bulletin ye-Atomic Scientists nge-16 kaFebruwari, ngaphambi kokuba iRashiya ihlasele kwakhona:

'NgoFebruwari, imifanekiso evulekileyo ye-buildup yaseRashiya yaqinisekisa ukuhlanganiswa kwemijukujelwa ye-Iskander yoluhlu olufutshane, ukubekwa kwe-9M729 imijukujelwa yokuhamba ngenqanawa eyaziswa emhlabeni e-Kaliningrad, kunye neentshukumo ze-Khinzal zomoya ezijulwayo zokuhamba ngeenqanawa ukuya kumda we-Ukraine. Ngokudibeneyo, le mijukujelwa iyakwazi ukubetha nzulu eYurophu kwaye isoyikise amakomkhulu eqela lamazwe angamalungu e-NATO. Iinkqubo zemijukujelwa yaseRashiya azenzelwanga ukuba zisetyenziswe ngokuchasene ne-Ukraine, kodwa endaweni yoko ukulwa nazo naziphi na iinzame ze-NATO zokungenelela kwi-Russia ecingelwayo "kufuphi nangaphandle."'

Imijukujelwa ye-Iskander-M yendlela, yoluhlu olufutshane (iimayile ezingama-300) inokuthwala iintloko zemfazwe eziqhelekileyo okanye zenyukliya. Baye bathunyelwa kwiphondo laseRussia laseKaliningrad, elisebumelwaneni lasePoland, malunga neekhilomitha ezingama-200 ukusuka kumantla eUkraine. ukususela 2018. IRashiya ibachaze njenge ikhawuntara kwiinkqubo ezijulwayo zase-US ezifakwe eMpuma Yurophu. I-Iskander-Ms kuxelwe ukuba iqokelelwe kwaye yafakwa elunyukweni ekuqhubeleni olu hlaselo lwamva nje.

I-9M729 i-ground-launched cruise missile ('Screwdriver' ukuya kwi-NATO) kuthiwa ngumkhosi waseRashiya ukuba unoluhlu oluphezulu lweemayile ezingama-300 kuphela. Abahlalutyi baseNtshona Kholelwa inoluhlu oluphakathi kwe-300 kunye ne-3,400 yeemayile. I-9M729 inokuthwala iintloko zenyukliya. Ngokweengxelo, le mijukujelwa ibekwe kwiphondo laseKaliningard, kumda wePoland. Yonke iYurophu yaseYurophu, kuquka i-UK, inokubethelwa yile mijukujelo, ukuba abahlalutyi baseNtshona bachanekile malunga noluhlu lwe-9M729.

iKh-47M2 Kinzhal ('I-Dagger') sisijukujelwa esizii-land-attack cruise cruise enoluhlu lweemayile ezinokuba zii-1,240. Inokuthwala intloko yemfazwe yenyukliya, i-500kt warhead izihlandlo ezininzi ezinamandla ngaphezu kwebhombu yaseHiroshima. Yenzelwe ukuba isetyenziswe ngokuchasene 'neethagethi zexabiso eliphezulu'. Umjukujelwa waba esetyenziswe ukuya eKaliningrad (kwakhona, enomda kunye nelungu le-NATO, ePoland) ekuqaleni kukaFebruwari.

Nge-Iskander-Ms, izixhobo zazisele zikhona, inqanaba labo lokulumkisa liphakanyisiwe kwaye zenziwa zilungele isenzo.

UPutin ke waphakamisa inqanaba lokulumkisa zonke Izixhobo zenyukliya zaseRashiya. Nge-27 kaFebruwari, uPutin wathi:

'Amagosa aphezulu kumazwe aphambili e-Nato nawo avumela iingxelo ezinobundlobongela ngokuchasene nelizwe lethu, ngoko ke ndiyalela umphathiswa wezokhuselo kunye nomphathi wabasebenzi jikelele [omkhosi oxhobileyo waseRussia] ukuba badlulisele imikhosi yokunqanda yomkhosi waseRussia kwindlela ekhethekileyo. ngomsebenzi wokulwa.'

(Isithethi saseKremlin uDmitry Peskov kamva caciswa ukuba 'igosa eliphezulu' ekuthethwa ngalo yayingunobhala wezangaphandle waseBritane uLiz Truss, owayelumkisile ukuba imfazwe yaseUkraine inokukhokelela 'kungquzulwano' kunye nongquzulwano phakathi kweNATO neRussia.)

UMatthew Kroenig, ingcali yenyukliya kwiBhunga leAtlantiki, xelelwe le Financial Times: 'Ngenene esi sisicwangciso somkhosi waseRussia ukunqanda uhlaselo oluqhelekileyo ngezigrogriso zenyukliya, okanye into eyaziwa ngokuba "kukunyuka ukuthoba iqhinga". Umyalezo oya entshonalanga, i-Nato kunye ne-US ithi, "Musa ukubandakanyeka okanye sinokunyusa izinto kwinqanaba eliphezulu".'

Iingcali zabhidwa libinzana elithi 'indlela ekhethekileyo yomsebenzi wokulwa', njengoko kunjalo hayi inxalenye yemfundiso yenyukliya yaseRashiya. Ayinayo intsingiselo ethile yomkhosi, ngamanye amazwi, ngoko ke ayicacanga ngokupheleleyo ukuba ithetha ukuthini, ngaphandle kokubeka izixhobo zenyukliya kuhlobo oluthile lwesilumkiso esiphezulu.

Umyalelo kaPutin bekunjalo 'umyalelo wokuqala' kunokuba uqalise amalungiselelo asebenzayo ogwayimbo, ngokuka-Pavel Podvig, enye yeengcaphephe zehlabathi kwizixhobo zenyukliya zaseRashiya (kunye nososayensi kwiZiko leZizwe eziManyeneyo loPhando lweDisarmament eGeneva). IPodvig wachaza: 'Njengoko ndiyiqonda indlela esebenza ngayo inkqubo, ngexesha loxolo ayinako ukuhambisa ngokwasemzimbeni umyalelo wokuqaliswa, ngokungathi iisekethe “ziqhawukile”.' Oko indlela 'awukwazi ukuthumela umqondiso ngokwasemzimbeni nokuba uyafuna. Nokuba ucofa iqhosha, akukho nto inokwenzeka.' Ngoku, ukujikeleza kuqhagamshelwe, 'ngoko umyalelo wokuqaliswa unokuhamba ukuba ikhutshiwe'

'Ukuqhagamshela i-circuitry' kukwathetha ukuba izixhobo zenyukliya zaseRashiya zinokubakho ngoku yaqaliswa nokuba u-Putin ngokwakhe ubulewe okanye akakwazi ukufikelela - kodwa oko kunokwenzeka kuphela ukuba ukuchithwa kwenyukliya kufunyenwe kwintsimi yaseRashiya, ngokutsho kwePodvig.

Ngokuqinisekileyo, i-referendum e-Belarus ekupheleni kukaFebruwari uvula ucango ukuhambisa izixhobo zenyukliya zaseRussia kufutshane naseUkraine, ngokuzimisa kumhlaba waseBelorussia okokuqala ukusukela ngo-1994.

'Ukudala intlonipho efanelekileyo'

Zombini ezi zixhobo zisondeza izixhobo zenyukliya kungquzulwano kunye nokuphakamisa inqanaba lenyukliya kuye kwasetyenziswa ukubonakalisa izoyikiso zenyukliya kumashumi eminyaka amaninzi.

Umzekelo, ngexesha lemfazwe yaseBritane ne-Indonesia (ngo-1963 – 1966), eyaziwa apha njenge-'Malasian Confrontation', i-UK yathumela iziqhushumbisi zenyukliya ezinobuchule, iinxalenye ze-'V-bomber' yamandla okuthintela inyukliya. Siyazi ngoku ukuba izicwangciso zomkhosi zibandakanya kuphela iibhombu zikaVictor okanye iVulcan ezithwele kwaye ziwisa iibhombu eziqhelekileyo. Noko ke, ngenxa yokuba babeyinxalenye yomkhosi wenyukliya, bahamba nesisongelo senyukliya.

Ku Ijenali yoMbutho wembali weRAF Inqaku elingengxaki, umbhali-mbali wasemkhosini kunye nowayengumqhubi weRAF u-Humphrey Wynn ubhala:

'Nangona ezi ziqhushumbisi ze-V zifakwe kwindima yesiqhelo akukho mathandabuzo okuba ubukho babo bube nefuthe elithintelayo. NjengeeB-29s ezathi iUnited States yazithumela eYurophu ngexesha lengxaki yaseBerlin (1948-49), zaziwa ngokuba “zinamandla enyukliya”, ukusebenzisa isigama esifanelekileyo saseMelika, njengoko zazinjalo iiCanberras ezisuka kuMfutshane. I-East Air Force kunye ne-RAF yaseJamani.'

Kubantu bangaphakathi, 'ukuthintela inyukliya' kuquka ukoyikisa (okanye 'ukudala intlonipho ephilileyo' phakathi) kwabemi bomthonyama.

Ukucaca, i-RAF yayijikelezile i-V-bombers ngeSingapore ngaphambili, kodwa ngeli xesha lemfazwe, zagcinwa ngaphaya kwexesha labo lesiqhelo. Umphathi womoya weRAF uDavid Lee ubhala kwimbali yakhe yeRAF yaseAsia:

'ulwazi lwamandla e-RAF kunye nobuchule budale intlonipho ephilileyo phakathi kweenkokheli zase-Indonesia, kunye thintela Iziphumo zeRAF zokhuselo lomoya, iibhombu ezikhanyayo kunye V-iziqhushumbisi kwi detachment evela Bomber Command yayinyanisekile.' (UDavid Lee, Ngasempuma: Imbali yeRAF kwiMpuma Ekude, 1945 – 1970, London: HMSO, 1984, p213, ugxininiso longeziweyo)

Siyabona ukuba, kubantu bangaphakathi, 'ukuthintela inyukliya' kubandakanya ukoyikisa (okanye 'ukudala intlonipho eyakhayo' phakathi) kwabantu bomthonyama - kule meko, kwelinye icala lehlabathi ukusuka eBritane.

Akufuneki ukuba kuthiwe i-Indonesia, ngexesha leNgqungquthela, njenganamhlanje, ilizwe elingelona izixhobo zenyukliya.

Intetho kaPutin yokubeka imikhosi yaseRashiya 'yokuthintela' isilumkiso namhlanje inentsingiselo efanayo malunga 'nokuthintela = ukoyikisa'.

Usenokuba uyazibuza ukuba ngaba iiVictors kunye neeVulcans zathunyelwa eSingapore nje ngezixhobo eziqhelekileyo. Oko ngekhe kuchaphazele umqondiso onamandla wenyukliya ezi ziqhushumbisi zicwangcisiweyo zenyukliya zithunyelwe, njengoko abantu base-Indonesia bebengazi ukuba baphethe ntoni na. Ungathumela inkwili yaseTrident kuLwandle Olumnyama namhlanje kwaye, nokuba ibingenanto kwaphela kulo naluphi na uhlobo lwesiqhushumbisi, ingatolikwa njengesoyikiso senyukliya ngokuchasene neCrimea kunye nemikhosi yaseRussia ngokubanzi.

Njengoko kusenzeka, inkulumbuso yaseBritani uHarold Macmillan wayenayo ogunyazisiweyo ukugcinwa kwezixhobo zenyukliya eRAF Tengah eSingapore ngo-1962. Isixhobo senyukliya esineNdevu eziBomvu sathunyelwa ngenqwelo moya saya eTengah ngo-1960 kwaye iiNdevu eziBomvu zokwenene ezingama-48 esetyenziswe apho ngowe-1962. Ngoko iibhombu zenyukliya zazifumaneka ekuhlaleni ebudeni bemfazwe neIndonesia ukususela ngowe-1963 ukusa kowe-1966. (IiNdevu Ezibomvu azizange zirhoxiswe de kwangowe-1971, xa iBritani yarhoxa ngokupheleleyo emkhosini wayo eSingapore naseMalaysia.)

Ukusuka eSingapore ukuya eKaliningrad

Kukho ukufana phakathi kweBritani egcina i-V-bhombers eSingapore ngexesha lemfazwe ne-Indonesia kunye neRussia ithumela imijukujelwa yokuhamba ngenqanawa eyi-9M729 kunye. Khinzal imijukujelwa yomoya eya eKaliningrad ngexesha lengxaki yaseUkraine yangoku.

Kuzo zombini ezi meko, ilizwe elinezixhobo zenyukliya lizama ukoyikisa abachasi balo ngenyukliya enokwenzeka.

Oku kukuxhatshazwa kwenyukliya. Kuluhlobo oluthile lobunqolobi benyukliya.

Kukho eminye imizekelo emininzi yokuthunyelwa kwezixhobo zenyukliya enokuthi ikhankanywe. Endaweni yoko, masingene 'kwisilumkiso senyukliya njengesisongelo senyukliya'.

Ezibini kwezona ziganeko ziyingozi kakhulu zoku zeza ebudeni bemfazwe yowe-1973 kuMbindi Mpuma.

Xa uSirayeli wayesoyikela ukuba imfazwe yayiza kulwa nayo, yatsho zibeke imijukujelwa yayo yenyukliya-exhobileyo ephakathi eYeriko ballistic iqaphile, ukwenza imisayino yabo radiation ebonakalayo kwinqwelomoya esweni US. Iithagethi zokuqala zezi wathi ukuba iquke ikomkhulu lomkhosi waseSiriya, kufuphi neDamasko, kunye nekomkhulu lomkhosi wase-Eygptian, kufutshane neCairo.

Kwangaloo mini ifunyenwe ngayo, i-12 ka-Okthobha, i-US yaqala ukuhamba ngeenqwelomoya okukhulu kwezixhobo ezazifunwa ngu-Israyeli - kwaye i-US yayichasa - kangangexesha elithile.

Into engumnqa ngesi silumkiso kukuba yayisisisongelo senyukliya esijoliswe ikakhulu kwihlakani endaweni yeentshaba.

Ngapha koko, kukho impikiswano yokuba lo ngowona msebenzi uphambili wezixhobo zenyukliya zakwaSirayeli. Le ngxabano ibekwe kwi-Seymour Hersh's Ukhetho lukaSamson, ene-a akhawunti eneenkcukacha ye-12 Okthobha isilumkiso sikaSirayeli. (Enye imbono ye-12 Okthobha inikwe apha Ukufundiswa kwe-US.)

Kungekudala emva kwentlekele ye-12 ka-Okthobha, i-US yaphakamisa inqanaba lenyukliya yezixhobo zayo.

Emva kokufumana uncedo lomkhosi wase-US, imikhosi yakwaSirayeli yaqala ukwenza inkqubela kwaye ukupheliswa komlilo kwabhengezwa yi-UN nge-14 ka-Okthobha.

Inkumanda yetanki yakwaSirayeli uAriel Sharon emva koko waphula isivumelwano sokuyeka imfazwe wawela iSuez Canal ukuya eYiputa. Exhaswa yimikhosi emikhulu exhobileyo phantsi komphathi uAvraham Adan, uSharon wasongela ngokuyoyisa imikhosi yaseYiputa ngokupheleleyo. ICairo yayisengozini.

I-Soviet Union, eyayingumxhasi ophambili we-Egypt ngelo xesha, yaqala ukuhambisa imikhosi e-elite yayo ukunceda ukukhusela i-capital yase-Egypt.

I-arhente yeendaba yase-UPI Iingxelo inguqulelo enye yento eyenzekayo emva koko:

'Ukumisa uSharon [kunye no-Adan], uKissinger uphakamise imeko yokulumkisa yonke imikhosi yokhuselo yase-US kwihlabathi liphela. Ebizwa ngokuba yi-DefCons, ngenxa yemeko yokukhusela, basebenza ngokuhla kwe-DefCon V ukuya kwi-DefCon I, eyimfazwe. U-Kissinger wayala i-DefCon III. Ngokutsho kowayesakuba ligosa eliphezulu leSebe likaRhulumente, isigqibo sokufudukela kwiDefCon III “sithumele umyalezo ocacileyo wokuba ukwaphula kukaSharon ukupheliswa kodushe kwakusitsalela kungquzulwano namaSoviet yaye sasingenawo umnqweno wokuwubona utshatyalaliswa uMkhosi waseYiputa.” '

Urhulumente wase-Israel uye wanqumamisa uhlaselo lwase-Sharon/Adan lokuphelisa imfazwe eJiphethe.

UNoam Chomsky unika a ukutolika okwahlukileyo zeziganeko:

Kwiminyaka elishumi kamva, uHenry Kissinger wabiza isilumkiso senyukliya kwiintsuku zokugqibela zemfazwe yakwa-Israel-Arab ngo-1973. Injongo yayikukulumkisa abantu baseRussia ukuba bangaphazamisi kubuchule bakhe bezozakuzo, obuyilelwe ukuqinisekisa uloyiso luka-Israeli, kodwa olulinganiselweyo, ukuze i-US iqhubeke ilawula lo mmandla ngokuzimeleyo. Kwaye iindlela zokuqhuba zazibuthathaka. I-US kunye neRussia ngokudibeneyo banyanzelise ukupheliswa komlilo, kodwa uKissinger wazisa ngasese u-Israyeli ukuba angayihoyi. Kungoko imfuneko yesisilumkiso senyukliya soyikisa amaRashiya.'

Kuyo nayiphi na indlela yokutolika, ukunyuswa kwenqanaba lenyukliya lase-US kwakumalunga nokulawula ingxaki kunye nokubeka imida kwindlela yokuziphatha kwabanye. Kungenzeka ukuba isilumkiso sikaPutin samva nje 'somsebenzi wokulwa' sineempembelelo ezifanayo. Kuzo zombini ezi meko, njengoko uChomsky ebeya kubonisa, ukuphakamisa isilumkiso senyukliya kunciphisa kunokwandisa ukhuseleko kunye nokhuseleko lwabemi belizwe.

Imfundiso kaCarter, iMfundiso kaPutin

Izoyikiso zangoku zenyukliya zaseRussia ziyoyikeka kwaye zikwaphula ngokucacileyo iTshatha ye-UN: 'Onke amaLungu aya kuzibamba kubudlelwane bawo bamazwe ngamazwe. isoyikiso okanye ukusetyenziswa kwezigalo ngokuchasene nesidima sommandla okanye ukuzimela kwezopolitiko kwalo naliphi na ilizwe….' (Inqaku lesi-2, icandelo 4, ligxininiswe)

Ngowe-1996, iNkundla yeHlabathi lawula ukuba isoyikiso okanye ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya kuya kuba akukho mthethweni.

Indawo enye apho yayinokubona ukuba kunokwenzeka ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya ngokusemthethweni yayikwimeko yogrogriso 'kwimpilo yesizwe'. Inkundla wathi 'ayikwazanga 'ukugqiba ngokuqinisekileyo ukuba ingaba isoyikiso okanye ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya kuya kuba semthethweni okanye akukho mthethweni kwimeko egqithileyo yokuzikhusela, apho kwa kanye ukuphila koMbuso kuya kuba sesichengeni'.

Kwimeko yangoku, ukusinda kweRashiya njengombuso akukho mngcipheko. Ngoko ke, ngokwendlela iNkundla Yehlabathi ewutolika ngayo lo mthetho, izisongelo zenyukliya ezikhutshwa yiRashiya azikho mthethweni.

Oku kuya nakwizisongelo zenyukliya zase-US kunye neBritane. Nantoni na eyenzekayo eTaiwan ngo-1955 okanye e-Iraq ngo-1991, ukusinda kwelizwe lase-US kwakungekho mngcipheko. Nantoni na eyenzekayo eMalaysia phakathi kweminyaka engamashumi amathandathu, kwakungekho ngozi yokuba i-United Kingdom ayiyi kusinda. Ke ngoko ezi zoyikiso zenyukliya (kunye nezinye ezininzi ezinokukhankanywa) zazingekho mthethweni.

Abahlalutyi baseNtshona abangxamela ukugxeka ubugeza benyukliya kaPutin baya kwenza kakuhle ukukhumbula impambano yenyukliya yaseNtshona yexesha elidlulileyo.

Kungenzeka ukuba into eyenziwa yiRashiya ngoku idala umgaqo-nkqubo jikelele, ukudweba umgca wenyukliya entlabathi ngokubhekiselele kwinto eya kuthi kwaye ayiyi kuvumela ukuba kwenzeke eMpuma Yurophu.

Ukuba kunjalo, oku kuya kufana noko kwiCarter Doctrine, esinye isoyikiso senyukliya 'esoyikekayo' esinxulumene nendawo. Ngomhla wama-23 kuJanuwari 1980, kwintetho yakhe yobume beManyano, owayengumongameli wase-US uJimmy Carter wathi:

Ukuma kwethu makucace ngokupheleleyo: Umzamo wawo nawuphi na umkhosi wangaphandle wokufumana ulawulo lwePersian Gulf ummandla uya kuthathwa njengohlaselo kwizinto ezibalulekileyo zase-United States of America, kwaye uhlaselo olunjalo luya kurhoxiswa nangayiphi na indlela eyimfuneko. , kuquka nomkhosi wasemkhosini.'

'Naziphi na iindlela eziyimfuneko' ziquka izixhobo zenyukliya. Njengabafundi ababini baselwandle base-US amagqabantshintshi: 'Ngelixa into ebizwa ngokuba yiCarter Doctrine ingazange ichaze ngokuthe ngqo izixhobo zenyukliya, kwakukholelwa ngokubanzi ngelo xesha ukuba isoyikiso sokusebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya sasiyinxalenye yesicwangciso sase-US sokuthintela iiSoviets ukuba ziqhubele emazantsi zisuka e-Afghanistan zisiya kwizityebi zeoli. iPersian Gulf.'

I-Carter Doctrine yayingesiso isoyikiso senyukliya kwimeko ethile yentlekele, kodwa umgaqo-nkqubo omileyo wokuba izixhobo zenyukliya zase-US zinokusetyenziswa ukuba amandla angaphandle (ngaphandle kwe-US ngokwayo) azama ukufumana ulawulo kwi-oyile ye-Middle East. Kungenzeka ukuba urhulumente waseRussia ngoku ufuna ukumisa iambrela yezixhobo zenyukliya ezifanayo phezu kweMpuma Yurophu, iPutin Doctrine. Ukuba kunjalo, kuya kuba yingozi kwaye akukho mthethweni njengeCarter Doctrine.

Abahlalutyi baseNtshona abangxamela ukugxeka ubugeza benyukliya kaPutin baya kwenza kakuhle ukukhumbula impambano yenyukliya yaseNtshona yexesha elidlulileyo. Phantse akukho nto itshintshileyo kule minyaka imbalwa idlulileyo kwiNtshona, mhlawumbi kulwazi loluntu kunye nezimo zengqondo okanye kwimigaqo-nkqubo karhulumente kunye nokusebenza, ukuthintela iNtshona ekwenzeni izoyikiso zenyukliya kwixesha elizayo. Le yingcinga eyothusayo njengoko sijongene nokuchas’ umthetho kwenyukliya yaseRashiya namhlanje.

UMilan Rai, umhleli we Iindaba zoxolo, ngulo mbhali I-Tactical Trident: Imfundiso yeRifkind kunye nehlabathi leSithathu (Amaphepha eDrava, 1995). Imizekelo emininzi yezoyikiso zenyukliya yaseBritane inokufumaneka kwisincoko sakhe, 'Ukucinga ngokungenakucingelwa malunga nokungacingelwanga-Ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zeNyukliya kunye neModeli yePropaganda'(2018).