Ngaba iphumelele kangakanani iMfazwe yeHlabathi kuLoyikiso? Ubungqina besiphumo sokuBuyela umva

by I-Science Science Digest, Agasti 24, 2021

Olu hlalutyo lushwankathela kwaye lubonakalise kolu phando lulandelayo: Kattelman, KT (2020). Ukuvavanya impumelelo yeMfazwe yeHlabathi kwiNgebenga: Ukuhlasela kwamanqolobi rhoqo kunye nesiphumo sokubuyela umva. Dynamics yongquzulwano lwe-Asymmetric, 13(1), 67-86. https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2019.1650384

Olu hlalutyo lolwesibini kuthotho oluneenxalenye ezine ezikhumbula iminyaka engama-20 kaSeptemba 11, 2001. Ekuqaqambiseni umsebenzi wakutshanje wezifundo ngeziphumo ezibi zeemfazwe zase-US e-Iraq nase-Afghanistan nakwiMfazwe yeHlabathi yezoBugrogrisi (GWOT) ngokubanzi, Sijonge kolu ngcelele ukuba luvuselele ukucinga kwakhona kwempendulo yase-US kubunqolobi kunye nokuvula incoko ngeendlela ezikhoyo ezingekho mthethweni emfazweni nakubundlobongela bezopolitiko.

Amanqaku okuthetha

• KwiMfazwe yeHlabathi yoBugrogrisi (GWOT), amazwe amanyeneyo athunyelwa emkhosini eAfghanistan naseIraq afumana uhlaselo lwabanqolobi eliziphindezelayo ngokuchasene nabemi babo njengokubuyela umva.
• Ukubuyela umva kohlaselo lobugrogrisi lokuphindisela okwenzeka kumazwe angamanyano kubonisa ukuba iMfazwe yeHlabathi kwiNgebenga ayifikelelanga kwinjongo yayo ephambili yokugcina abemi bekhuselekile kubunqolobi.

Ingqondo engundoqo yoLwazi lokuziqhelanisa

• Imvumelwano evelayo malunga nokusilela kweMfazwe yeHlabathi kwiZoyikiso (GWOT) kufuneka ikhuthaze ukuphononongwa ngokutsha komgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle wase-US kunye nokutshintshela kumgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle oqhubekayo, oya kwenza ngakumbi ukugcina abemi bekhuselekile kuhlaselo lwabanqolobi.

isishwankathelo

U-Kyle T. Kattelman uphanda ukuba ingaba isenzo somkhosi, ngakumbi iibhutsi emhlabeni, sinciphise ukubakho kobunqolobi bezizwe ngezizwe yi-Al-Qaeda kunye namahlakani ayo ngokuchasene namazwe obumbano ngexesha leMfazwe yeHlabathi yezoKoyikiso (GWOT). Uthatha indlela ethe ngqo yelizwe yokuvavanya ukuba isenzo somkhosi siphumelele na ekufezekiseni enye yeenjongo eziphambili ze-GWOT-ukuthintela uhlaselo lwabanqolobi kubantu baseMelika naseNtshona ngokubanzi.

I-Al-Qaeda yathatha uxanduva kuhlaselo lwango-Matshi 2004 koololiwe abane eMadrid, eSpain, nakwibhombu yokuzibulala ngo-Julayi 2005 eLondon, e-UK. I-Al-Qaeda ijolise kula mazwe ngenxa yemisebenzi yabo yasemkhosini eqhubekayo kwi-GWOT. Le mizekelo mibini ibonisa indlela igalelo lomkhosi kwi-GWOT elinokuthi libe yinto engenziwanga, enokubangela uhlaselo lobunqolobi lokuphindisela kwilizwe labemi.

Uphando lukaKattelman lujolise ekungeneleleni kwezomkhosi, okanye kwimikhosi esemhlabeni, kuba "ziyintliziyo yayo nayiphi na into ephumelelayo" kwaye kusenokwenzeka ukuba i-hegemons yenkululeko yenkululeko yaseNtshona iya kuqhubeka nokuyisebenzisa, nangona iphikisana noluntu, ukufezekisa iimfuno zabo zehlabathi. Uphando lwangaphambili lukwabonisa ubungqina bokuhlaselwa ngokuziphindezela kwimeko yokungenelela emkhosini kunye nemisebenzi. Nangona kunjalo, ihlala ijolise kuhlobo lokuhlaselwa, hayi iqela elinoxanduva. Ekudibaniseni idatha kuhlaselo lwabanqolobi olwahlukileyo, uninzi lweembono, ubuhlanga, intlalo, okanye inkolo yamaqela abanqolobi ayihoywa.

Ukwakha kwiingcamango zangaphambili zokubuyela umva, umbhali uphakamisa eyakhe imodeli egxile kubuchule kunye nenkuthazo yokuqonda ukuba yeyiphi impembelelo yokuthunyelwa komkhosi kwilizwe elinamaxesha okuhlaselwa ngabanqolobi. Kwimfazwe engenakulinganiswa, amazwe aya kuba namandla amakhulu emkhosini ngokumalunga nemibutho yabanqolobi abanokulwa nayo, kwaye amazwe kunye nemibutho yabanqolobi iya kuba namanqanaba ahlukeneyo okukhuthaza. Kwi-GWOT, amazwe amanyeneyo abenegalelo kwezomkhosi nangaphandle komkhosi kwiziphumo ezahlukeneyo. Inkuthazo yeAl-Qaeda yokuhlasela amalungu omanyano ngaphaya kwe-United States yahlukile. Ngokuhambelana, umbhali ucinga ukuba uninzi lwelungu lomanyano kwiGWOT, kokukhona kuya kubakho amava ohlaselo lobugrogrisi olwenziwa yiAl-Qaeda, njengoko umsebenzi wayo wezomkhosi ungonyusa inkuthazo yeAl-Qaeda yokuyihlasela.

Kolu phando, idatha ithathwa kulwazi olwahlukeneyo lokulandela umkhondo wabanqolobi kunye nemikhosi yamajoni e-Afghanistan nase-Iraq phakathi kuka-1998 no-2003. Ukufumana utshintsho kwezopolitiko, ezoqoqosho, ezenkolo okanye ezentlalo ngenxa yokoyika, ukunyanzelisa okanye ukoyikisa ”kubangelwa yiAl-Qaeda kunye namalungu ayo. Ukukhuphela ngaphandle uhlaselo "lomoya" wokulwa "kwisampulu, umbhali uphonononge izehlo" ezimeleyo zovukelo okanye ezinye iintlobo zongquzulwano. "

Iziphumo ziqinisekisa ukuba amalungu omanyano afaka isandla e-Afghanistan nase-Iraq kwi-GWOT afumene ukonyuka kohlaselo lobunqolobi olwahlasela abemi bawo. Ngaphaya koko, kwinqanaba eliphezulu legalelo, elilinganiswe ngenani lamajoni, kokukhona iphindaphindeka uhlaselo lwabanqolobi. Oku kuyinyani kula mazwe alishumi asebenzisanayo kunye nokusasazwa kwemikhosi emikhulu. Kula mazwe alishumi aphezulu, babekho abambalwa abanamava ohlaselo lwabanqolobi ngaphambi kokuthunyelwa komkhosi kodwa emva koko bafumana utsiba olukhulu kuhlaselo emva koko. Ukuthunyelwa emkhosini kuphindwe kabini amathuba okuba ilizwe libe nokuhlaselwa ngabanqolobi abavela e-Al-Qaeda. Ngapha koko, kuyo yonke inyunithi eyonyukayo kwigalelo lamajoni kwabakho ukonyuka nge-11.7% yokuphindaphindeka kohlaselo lobunqolobi olwenziwa kwilizwe liphela. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, i-US yanikela ngemikhosi emininzi (i-118,918) kwaye yafumana olona hlaselo lobugrogrisi lweAl-Qaeda (61). Ukuqinisekisa ukuba idatha ayiqhutywa yi-US kuphela, umbhali uqhube olunye uvavanyo kwaye wagqiba ukuba akukho lutshintsho lubalulekileyo kwiziphumo ngokususwa kwe-US kwisampulu.

Ngamanye amagama, kwabakho ukubuyela umva, ngohlobo lokuhlaselwa kwabanqolobi abaphindisayo, ngokuchasene nokuthunyelwa emkhosini kwi-GWOT. Iipateni zobundlobongela eziboniswe kolu phando zibonisa umbono wokuba ubugrogrisi obungenabugwenxa abuzenzekiyo, ubundlobongela obungenangqondo. Endaweni yoko, abadlali "abanengqiqo" banokuhambisa ubugrogrisi bezizwe ngezizwe ngobuchule. Isigqibo selizwe sokuthatha inxaxheba kubundlobongela obusebukhosini ngokuchasene nombutho wabanqolobi sinokunyusa inkuthazo yeqela labanqolobi, oko ke kukhokelele ekuziphindezeleni kuhlaselo lwabanqolobi kwilizwe labo. Lilonke, umbhali ugqiba kwelokuba i-GWOT ayiphumelelanga ekwenzeni abemi bamalungu omdibaniso bakhuseleke kubunqolobi obudlulela kwilizwe liphela.

Ulwazi lokuziqhelanisa

Ngaphandle kokugxininiswa kolu phando ekuhanjisweni komkhosi kunye nefuthe lalo kubunqolobi, iziphumo zinokufundisa ngokubanzi umgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle wase-US. Olu phando luyabungqina ubukho bokubuyela umva kongenelelo lomkhosi kumlo onxamnye nobunqolobi obudlulayo. Ukuba injongo kukugcina abemi bekhuselekile, njengoko bekunjalo nge-GWOT, olu phando lubonisa ukuba ungenelelo lomkhosi lunokuba yinto engenziwanga njani. Ngapha koko, i-GWOT ineendleko ngaphezulu kwe- $ 6 triliyoni, kunye ngaphezulu kwabantu abangama-800,000 babhubhile ngenxa yoko, kubandakanya abantu abangama-335,000, ngokweNdleko zeProjekthi yeMfazwe. Ukuthathela ingqalelo oku, umgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle wase-US kufuneka uqwalasele ukuthembela kwawo emkhosini. Kodwa, yeha, umgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle uqinisekisa ukuthembela emkhosini "njengesisombululo" kwizoyikiso zangaphandle, kukhomba kwimfuno yokuba i-US ithathele ingqalelo ukwamkela Umgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle oqhubela phambili.

Ngaphakathi komgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle wase-US, izisombululo zomgaqo-nkqubo zigxininisa isenzo somkhosi zikhona. Omnye umzekelo ngu amacebo amane omkhosi ongenelelo ukujongana nobunqolobi obugubungela ilizwe lonke. Okokuqala nokuphambili, esi sicwangciso sicebisa ukuthintela ukuvela kombutho wabanqolobi kwindawo yokuqala. Ukuqinisa amandla emkhosini kunye nohlengahlengiso kwicandelo lokhuseleko kunokubangela ukoyiswa kwangoko kombutho wabanqolobi kodwa alizukuthintela eli qela ukuba libuye lizenze kwixesha elizayo. Okwesibini, kufuneka kusetyenziswe isicwangciso-nkqubo sexesha elide kunye neendlela ezahlukeneyo zokubandakanya, kubandakanya ezomkhosi kunye nezingezizo ezomkhosi, ezinje ngozinzo lwasemva kwembambano nophuhliso. Okwesithathu, isenzo somkhosi kufuneka sibe sisigqibo sokugqibela. Okokugqibela, onke amaqela afanelekileyo kufuneka abandakanywe kwiingxoxo zokuphelisa ubundlobongela kunye nemfazwe.

Nangona inconyiwe, isisombululo somgaqo-nkqubo esingentla sisafuna ukuba umkhosi udlale indima kwinqanaba elithile-kwaye ayithathi nzulu ngokwaneleyo into yokuba inyathelo lomkhosi linokonyusa, endaweni yokunciphisa ukubekek 'engozini kokuhlaselwa. Njengoko abanye bephikisile, nkqu nongenelelo lomkhosi wase-US olucwangciswe kakuhle kunokubangela imeko ibe mandundu. Olu phando kunye nemvumelwano evelayo malunga nokusilela kwe-GWOT kufuneka ikhuthaze ukuphononongwa ngokutsha kwesakhelo somgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle wase-US. Ukuvela ngaphaya komgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle, umgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle oqhubekayo uya kubandakanya ukuphendula kwizigqibo zomgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle, ukuxabisa umanyano kunye nezivumelwano zehlabathi, ukulwa nomlo, ukuqinisekisa unxibelelwano phakathi komgaqo-nkqubo wasekhaya nowangaphandle, kunye nokunciphisa uhlahlo-lwabiwo mali lomkhosi. Ukufaka isicelo kolu phando kuya kuthetha ukuyeka ukuya emkhosini ngokuchasene nabanqolobi belizwe lonke. Endaweni yokoyika nokugxininisa kwizoyikiso zobunqolobi zelizwe njengesiqinisekiso somkhosi, urhulumente wase-US kufuneka ajonge izoyikiso ezikhoyo kwezokhuseleko kwaye abonakalise indlela ezo zoyikiso zidlala ngayo indima kubunqolobi obungenisa ilizwe. Ngamanye amaxesha, njengoko kucacisiwe kuphando olungentla, ungenelelo lomkhosi ngokuchasene nobunqolobi obubonakalayo belizwe lonke bunokonyusa ubungozi babemi. Ukunciphisa ukungalingani kwehlabathi, ukunciphisa utshintsho lwemozulu yehlabathi, kunye nokubamba uncedo koorhulumente abenza ngokunyhashwa kwamalungelo oluntu kuya kwenza lukhulu ukukhusela amaMelika kubunqolobi obudlulayo kunongenelelo lomkhosi. [KH]

Ukuqhubeka kokufunda

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Amagama abalulekileyo: Imfazwe Yomhlaba Yobunqolobi; ubunqolobi obubumbeneyo; IAl-Qaeda; ukulwa nobunqolobi Irakh; Afghanistani