I-US inganceda njani ukuzisa uxolo eUkraine?

NguNicolas JS Davies, World BEYOND War, ngoAprili 28, 2022
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Nge-21 ka-Epreli, uMongameli Biden wabhengeza iimpahla ezintsha kwezixhobo eziya eUkraine, ngexabiso le-$800 ezigidi kubahlawuli berhafu baseUnited States. Ngomhla wama-25 ku-Epreli, oonobhala beBlinken kunye no-Austin babhengeze ngaphezulu $ 300 yezigidi uncedo ngakumbi emkhosini. I-United States ngoku ichithe i-3.7 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwizixhobo zase-Ukraine ukusukela kuhlaselo lwaseRussia, izisa uncedo lomkhosi wase-US eUkraine ukusukela ngo-2014 ukuya malunga. $ 6.4 billion.

Eyona nto iphambili kwi-airstrikes yaseRussia e-Ukraine iye yaba kutshabalalisa uninzi lwezi zixhobo kangangoko phambi kokuba zifike kwindawo engaphambili emfazweni, ngoko ke akucaci ukuba zisebenza kangakanani na ngokwasemkhosini ezi zithutho zinkulu zezixhobo. Omnye umlenze we-US "inkxaso" ye-Ukraine yizohlwayo zezoqoqosho kunye nezemali ezichasene neRashiya, ukusebenza kwayo kuphezulu kakhulu qi niseki.

Unobhala-Jikelele we-UN u-Antonio Guterres tyelela IMoscow kunye neKyiv zizame ukukhaba iingxoxo zokuyeka ukudubula kunye nesivumelwano soxolo. Kuba amathemba othethathethwano loxolo lwangaphambili eBelarus naseTurkey akhukuliswe ngumsinga wokunyuka komkhosi, iintetho ezinobutshaba kunye nezityholo zolwaphulo-mthetho lwezopolitiko, uNobhala Jikelele uGuterres ngoku unokuba lelona themba loxolo eUkraine.  

Le pateni yamathemba okuqala esisombululo sozakuzo esiphazanyiswe ngokukhawuleza yi-psychosis yemfazwe ayiqhelekanga. Idatha malunga nendlela iimfazwe eziphela ngayo kwiNkqubo yeDatha yeNkcazo ye-Uppsala (UCDP) yenza kucace ukuba inyanga yokuqala yemfazwe inika ithuba elihle kakhulu lesivumelwano soxolo. Loo festile ngoku idlulile eUkraine. 

An uhlalutyo yedatha ye-UCDP liZiko leSifundo soBuchule kunye naMazwe ngaMazwe (CSIS) yafumanisa ukuba i-44% yeemfazwe eziphela kwisithuba senyanga ekupheleni kwesivumelwano sokuphelisa umlilo kunye noxolo kunokoyiswa okuqinisekileyo kwalo naliphi na icala, ngelixa oko kuncipha ukuya kwi-24% kwiimfazwe. leyo ihlala phakathi kwenyanga nonyaka. Emva kokuba iimfazwe ziqhubela phambili kunyaka wesibini, ziba nzima ngakumbi kwaye zihlala zineminyaka engaphezu kweshumi.

Ugxa we-CSIS uBenjamin Jensen, owahlalutya idatha ye-UCDP, uqukumbele ngelithi, “Ixesha lediplomacy ngoku. Okukhona imfazwe ithatha ixesha elide kungekho mvumelwano ngamaqela omabini, kokukhona ikhula ibe kungquzulwano oluthatha ixesha elide… Ukongeza kwisohlwayo, amagosa aseRussia adinga indlela yozakuzo esebenzayo ejongana neenkxalabo zawo onke amaqela. ”

Ukuze uphumelele, idiplomacy ekhokelela kwisivumelwano soxolo kufuneka ihlangabezane nezintlanu ezisisiseko iimeko:

Okokuqala, onke amacala amele azuze iingenelo kwisivumelwano soxolo esodlula oko acinga ukuba anokukuzuza ngemfazwe.

I-US kunye namagosa amanyeneyo alwa imfazwe yolwazi ukukhuthaza umbono wokuba iRussia iphulukana nemfazwe kwaye iUkraine inomkhosi. koyisa ERashiya, njengamagosa athile kuvuma ukuba oko kunokuthatha iminyaka emininzi.      

Enyanisweni, akukho cala liya kuxhamla kwimfazwe ethatha ixesha elide ehlala iinyanga ezininzi okanye iminyaka. Ubomi bezigidi zabantu base-Ukraine buya kulahleka kwaye bonakaliswe, ngelixa iRussia iya kugxothwa kuhlobo lwe-quagmire yasemkhosini apho i-USSR kunye ne-United States sele zinamava e-Afghanistan, kwaye ezona mfazwe zamva nje zase-US ziye zaguquka. 

E-Ukraine, iinkcazo ezisisiseko zesivumelwano soxolo sele zikhona. Zizo: ukurhoxiswa kwemikhosi yaseRashiya; Ukungathathi hlangothi kweUkraine phakathi kweNATO neRussia; ukuzimisela kubo bonke abantu baseUkraine (kubandakanywa eCrimea naseDonbas); kunye nesivumelwano sokhuseleko sommandla esikhusela wonke umntu kwaye sithintele iimfazwe ezintsha. 

Omabini la macala alwela ukomeleza isandla sawo ekugqibeleni kwisivumelwano kuloo migca. Ke bangaphi abantu ekufuneka babhubhile phambi kokuba iinkcukacha zisetyenzwe kwitafile yothethathethwano endaweni yokuchitha ubugoxo beedolophu nezixeko zaseUkraine?

Okwesibini, abalamli kufuneka bangakhethi buso kwaye bathenjwa ngamacala omabini.

I-United States iye yalawula indima yomlamli kwingxaki yakwa-Israeli-Palestine amashumi eminyaka, nanjengoko ibuyisela umva kwaye i ingalo icala elinye kwaye Ukuphathwa gadalala I-veto yayo ye-UN ukuthintela isenzo samazwe ngamazwe. Oku kube ngumzekelo ocacileyo wemfazwe engapheliyo.  

ITurkey ukuza kuthi ga ngoku isebenze njengomlamli oyintloko phakathi kweRussia neUkraine, kodwa lilungu le-NATO elinikezile. Drones, izixhobo kunye noqeqesho lomkhosi ukuya eUkraine. Omabini amacala alwamkele ulamlo lwaseTurkey, kodwa ngaba iTurkey ngokwenene ingaba ngumthengisi othembekileyo? 

I-UN inokudlala indima esemthethweni, njengoko isenza eYemen, apho la macala mabini ekugqibeleni ukuqaphela ukupheliswa kweenyanga ezimbini. Kodwa nangeyona migudu mihle yeZizwe Ezimanyeneyo, kuthathe iminyaka ukuthethathethana ngoku nqumama kubuthathaka emfazweni.    

Okwesithathu, isivumelwano kufuneka sijongane neenkxalabo eziphambili zawo onke amaqela emfazwe.

Ngo-2014, i-US-backed coup kunye ku bulala abaqhankqalazi abachasene nobhukuqo-mbuso e-Odessa bakhokelela kwizibhengezo zenkululeko yiDonetsk neLuhansk People's Republics. Isivumelwano sokuqala seMinsk Protocol ngoSeptemba 2014 asiphumelelanga ukuphelisa imfazwe yamakhaya eyalandelayo eMpuma Ukraine. Umahluko obalulekileyo kwi IMinsk II isivumelwano ngoFebruwari 2015 yayikukuba abameli be-DPR kunye ne-LPR babandakanyiwe kwiingxoxo, kwaye yaphumelela ekupheliseni ukulwa okubi kakhulu kunye nokuthintela ukuqhambuka kwemfazwe enkulu kwi-7 iminyaka.

Kukho elinye iqela elalingekho kakhulu kwiingxoxo eBelarus naseTurkey, abantu abenza isiqingatha sabemi baseRashiya nase-Ukraine: abafazi bamazwe omabini. Ngelixa abanye babo besilwa, abaninzi ngakumbi banokuthetha njengamaxhoba, iingxwelerha zabemi kunye neembacu kwimfazwe evulwe ikakhulu ngamadoda. Amazwi amabhinqa etafileni aya kuba sisikhumbuzo esiqhubekayo seendleko zoluntu zemfazwe kunye nobomi babasetyhini kunye abantwana ezisengozini.    

Kwanaxa elinye icala liphumelela emfazweni, izikhalazo zabo boyisiweyo kunye nemicimbi yezopolitiko neyobuchule engasonjululwanga ihlala ihlwayela imbewu yokuqhambuka kwemfazwe kwixa elizayo. Njengoko uBenjamin Jensen we-CSIS ecetyisiwe, iminqweno yabase-US kunye nezopolitiko zaseNtshona ukohlwaya kunye nokufumana iqhinga lobuchule. inzuzo phezu kweRashiya mayingavunyelwa ukuthintela isisombululo esibanzi esijongene neenkxalabo zamacala onke kwaye siqinisekise uxolo oluhlala luhleli.     

Okwesine, kufuneka kubekho inyathelo ngenyathelo lendlela eya kuxolo oluzinzileyo noluhlala luhleli apho onke amacala azibophelele khona.

The IMinsk II Isivumelwano sikhokelele ekuyekisweni kwemfazwe okuethe-ethe kwaye kwaseka umkhomba-ndlela wesisombululo sezopolitiko. Kodwa urhulumente wase-Ukraine kunye nepalamente, phantsi kooMongameli uPoroshenko kunye noZelensky, abazange baphumelele ukuthatha amanyathelo alandelayo uPoroshenko avumelana nawo eMinsk ngo-2015: ukudlula imithetho kunye nokuguqulwa komgaqo-siseko ukuvumela unyulo oluzimeleyo, olulawulwa ngamazwe ngamazwe kwi-DPR kunye ne-LPR, kwaye ukubanika ukuzimela ngaphakathi karhulumente federalized Ukrainian.

Ngoku ukuba ezi ntsilelo ziye zakhokelela ekuqaphelisweni kweRashiya kwi-DPR kunye nokuzimela kwe-LPR, isivumelwano esitsha soxolo kufuneka siphinde siphinde sisombulule isimo sabo, kunye neseCrimea, ngeendlela apho onke amacala aya kuzibophelela, nokuba oko kungenxa yokuzimela ethenjiswe kuyo. Minsk II okanye ngokusesikweni, waqaphela ukuzimela Ukraine. 

Inqaku elibambelelayo kuthethwano loxolo eTurkey yayiyimfuno yeUkraine yokuqinisekisa ukhuseleko oluluqilima lokuqinisekisa ukuba iRussia ayisayi kuphinda iyihlasele. UMqulu weZizwe Ezimanyeneyo ukhusela ngokusesikweni onke amazwe kuhlaselo lwezizwe ngezizwe, kodwa uye wasilela ngokuphindaphindiweyo ukwenjenjalo xa umhlaseli, ngokuqhelekileyo iUnited States, esebenzisa ivoto yeBhunga lezoKhuseleko. Ngoko iUkraine engathathi hlangothi inokuqinisekiswa njani ukuba iya kukhuseleka ekuhlaselweni kwixesha elizayo? Yaye onke amaqela anokuqiniseka njani ukuba amanye aya kubambelela kwisivumelwano ngeli xesha?

Okwesihlanu, amagunya angaphandle akufuneki ajongele phantsi uthethathethwano okanye ukuphunyezwa kwesivumelwano soxolo.

Nangona i-United States kunye namahlakani ayo e-NATO ingengawo amaqela alwayo e-Ukraine, indima yawo ekuxhokonxeni le ngxaki ngokwandisa i-NATO kunye ne-2014 coup, emva koko ixhasa uKyiv ukulahla isivumelwano seMinsk II kunye nokukhukula kwe-Ukraine ngezixhobo, kubenza "indlovu." kwigumbi” eliya kwenza isithunzi eside phezu kwetafile yothethathethwano, naphi na apho ikhoyo.

Ngo-Epreli 2012, owayesakuba nguNobhala Jikelele we-UN u-Kofi Annan wenze isicwangciso esinamanqaku amathandathu sokupheliswa komlilo okubekwe esweni yi-UN kunye notshintsho lwezopolitiko eSyria. Kodwa ngalo mzuzu kanye apho isicwangciso sika-Annan saqala ukusebenza kwaye ii-UN zokubeka iliso zokuphelisa imfazwe zazikhona, i-United States, i-NATO kunye namahlakani abo angama-Arabia abambe iinkomfa ezintathu "zaBahlobo baseSyria", apho bathembisa ngoncedo olungenamda lwemali kunye nomkhosi kwi-Al. Abavukeli abanxulumene neQaeda babebaxhasa ukuba babhukuqe urhulumente waseSyria. Oku khuthazwa abavukeli ukuba bangakunaki ukupheliswa, kwaye kukhokelele kwenye ishumi leminyaka yemfazwe yabantu baseSyria. 

Ubume bentetha yeengxoxo zoxolo malunga neUkraine zenza ukuba impumelelo ibe sesichengeni kakhulu kwiimpembelelo zangaphandle ezinamandla. I-United States yaxhasa i-Ukraine kwindlela yokujongana nemfazwe yamakhaya eDonbas endaweni yokuxhasa imimiselo yesivumelwano seMinsk II, kwaye oku kuye kwakhokelela kwimfazwe neRashiya. Ngoku uMphathiswa Wezangaphandle waseTurkey, uMevlut Cavosoglu, u xelele CNN Turk ukuba amalungu e-NATO angabizwanga ngamagama “afuna ukuba imfazwe iqhubeke,” ukuze iqhubeke isenza buthathaka iRashiya.

isiphelo  

Indlela i-United States kunye namahlakani ayo e-NATO asebenza ngayo ngoku kwaye kwiinyanga ezizayo iya kubaluleka ekuqinisekiseni ukuba i-Ukraine itshatyalalisiwe yiminyaka yemfazwe, njenge-Afghanistan, i-Iraq, iLibya, iSomalia, iSyria kunye neYemen, okanye ukuba le mfazwe iphela ngokukhawuleza ngemfazwe. inkqubo yozakuzo ezisa uxolo, ukhuseleko kunye nozinzo kubantu Russia, Ukraine kunye nabamelwane babo.

Ukuba iUnited States ifuna ukunceda ukubuyisela uxolo e-Ukraine, kufuneka ixhase ngezopolitiko iingxoxo zoxolo, kwaye iyenze icace kumlingane wayo, i-Ukraine, ukuba iya kuxhasa nayiphi na iminyinyiva eyenziwa ngabaxoxisi baseUkraine bakholelwa ukuba iyimfuneko yokufumana isivumelwano soxolo neRashiya. 

Nokuba yeyiphi na i-Russia ne-Ukraine evumayo ukusebenzisana nayo ukuzama ukusombulula le ngxaki, i-United States kufuneka inike inkqubo yezozakuzo inkxaso yayo epheleleyo, engagcinwanga, esidlangalaleni nasemva kweengcango ezivaliweyo. Kufuneka kwakhona iqinisekise ukuba izenzo zayo aziyijongeli phantsi inkqubo yoxolo e-Ukraine njengoko benzile isicwangciso sika-Annan eSyria ngo-2012. 

Elinye lawona manyathelo abalulekileyo anokuthi athathwe ziinkokeli zase-US kunye ne-NATO ukunika inkuthazo kwiRussia ukuba ivume kuxoxiswano loxolo kukuzibophelela ekunyuseni isohlwayo ukuba kwaye xa iRussia ithobela isivumelwano sokurhoxa. Ngaphandle kokuzibophelela okunjalo, izohlwayo ziya kukhawuleza ziphulukane naluphi na ukuziphatha okanye ixabiso elisebenzayo njengempembelelo phezu kweRashiya, kwaye iya kuba luhlobo oluthile lwesohlwayo esihlangeneyo kubantu bayo, kwaye ngokuchaseneyo. abantu abahluphekayo kuyo yonke indawo abangakwaziyo ukuthenga ukutya ukuze bondle iintsapho zabo. Njengenkokeli ye-de facto yombutho wezempi we-NATO, isikhundla sase-US kulo mbuzo siya kubaluleka. 

Ke izigqibo zomgaqo-nkqubo we-United States ziya kuba nefuthe elibi lokuba kungekudala kuya kubakho uxolo e-Ukraine, okanye imfazwe ende negazi. Uvavanyo lwabaqulunqi bomgaqo-nkqubo base-US, kunye nabantu baseMelika ababakhathaleleyo abantu baseUkraine, kufuneka ibe kukubuza ukuba zeziphi kwezi ziphumo ukhetho lomgaqo-nkqubo wase-US olunokukhokelela kuzo.

UNicolas JS Davies yintatheli ezimeleyo, umphandi nge-CODEPINK kunye nombhali we Igazi ezandleni zethu: Invasion yaseMelika kunye nokuTshatyalaliswa kwe-Iraq.