Uninzi kwizangqa zokhuseleko lwesizwe bajonga umngcipheko wokungqubana neRussia njengobunzima: 'andizukubadlula ukuba badubule inqwelomoya yase-US'
nguSpencer Akerman, Guardian
Umhlala-phantsi ophezulu Umkhosi waseMelika Abaqhubi beenqwelomoya baya besothuswa kukuba isindululo sikaHillary Clinton “sokungabhabhi iindawo” eSyria singakhokelela kungquzulwano lwasemkhosini neRussia olunokunyukela kumanqanaba ebekade engacingelwanga kwihlabathi lasemva kwemfazwe ebandayo.
Ababesakuba ngabacwangcisi bathetha noMgcini-mali njengoko imbangi kaClinton yaseRiphabhlikhi uDonald Trump walumkisa ukuba isiphakamiso sikaClinton sokuseka "imimandla ekhuselekileyo" ukukhusela abantu baseSyria. iya "kukhokelela kwimfazwe yehlabathi yesithathu".
Isindululo seendawo ekungabhabhiyo kuzo sixoxiwe kabuhlungu eWashington kule minyaka mihlanu idlulileyo, kodwa asikaze sitsale umdla omkhulu emkhosini ngenxa yomngcipheko kubaqhubi beenqwelomoya abavela kukhuseleko lomoya waseSyria kunye nobukho beenqwelomoya zaseRussia.
Uninzi kwizangqa zokhuseleko zelizwe lase-US zijonga umngcipheko wokujongana neenqwelomoya kunye namaRussia njengobunzima.
"Andiyi kubadlula ukuba badubule inqwelomoya yaseMelika," utshilo uJames Clapper, umlawuli wezobukrelekrele baseMelika ngoLwesibini ephendula umbuzo ovela kuMgcini kwiBhunga lezoBudlelwane baNgaphandle.
Abo baye bajikeleza iindawo ezingabhabhayo kwisibhakabhaka esikhululekileyo sase-Bosnia kunye ne-Iraq yexesha le-Saddam boyika ukuba uMongameli uClinton anganyanzela i-US kwinto enye inkanyezi yesithathu yomkhosi womoya wase-US ayichaze “njengomsebenzi womoya” ongapheliyo. Inyathelo elinjalo lingabeka emngciphekweni ubomi babaqhubi beenqwelomoya base-US- kwaye babe nobuganga bokujongana nomkhosi waseRussia onobundlongondlongo kunokuba ubunjalo kwiminyaka.
Abagxeki besi sicwangciso bayabuza nokuba ukusebenzisa amandla omkhosi wase-US ukuseka kunye namapolisa indawo ekhuselekileyo yabemi baseSyria abanxungupheleyo kuya kuba negalelo ekuweni kukaMongameli uBashar al-Assad - injongo ecacileyo yomgaqo-nkqubo wase-US Siriya.
"Ukuba akakho kwipolitiki, izakuba yintlekele. Ndiyathemba ukuba kukumiswa kwezopolitiko, ”utshilo uJohn Kuehn, igosa lomkhosi wasemanzini esele lisidla umhlala-phantsi elibhabhe kwindawo ekungabhabhiyo kuzo eBosnia nase-Iraq. U-Kuehn owabiza ukukhanyela umchasi kwindawo yakhe yomoya "ukusetyenziswa komkhosi weqela le-cocktail lamandla okuzikhethela".
UDavid Deptula, umthetheli-jikelele womkhosi womoya osele esidla umhlala-phantsi nowayalela ukuba kuqhutyelwe indawo ekungabhabhiyo kuyo emantla eIraq ngo-1998 nango-1999, wathi amaRashiya “yayingumba onzima” kodwa athathela ingqalelo iingxaki kwindawo ekungabhabhiyo kuzo njengezona zibalulekileyo.
“De isicwangciso esichaza imeko yesiphelo esifunwayo sibekwe ngokucacileyo ngendlela ebanzi, kunzima ukuxhasa indawo ekungabhabhiyo kuyo,” utshilo uDeptula.
“Kungoku nje, indlela ekuxoxwa ngayo, sisisombululo kukhangelwa iqhinga. Ade amagunya omanyano achaze ukuba yintoni na anqwenela ukuyifeza, ukudibanisa malunga nesisombululo esinjengendawo ekungabhabheki kuyo akuqalisi. ”
Imiceli mngeni yendawo ekungabhabhiyo kuyo ngaphezulu kweSyria iyodlula leyo i-US ijongene nayo ngaphezulu kweLibya, iBosnia ne-Iraq. Imijukujelwa ka-Assad yokuya emoyeni, ekhusela unxweme lweMeditera kunye nemimandla esemazantsi ulawulo olusalawulayo, ezinzima Ngaphambi kokongezwa kweRashiya yamva nje koko uClapper, owayesakuba ngumkhosi womoya jikelele, wabiza inkqubo ye-S-300 kunye ne-S-400 “ephucuke kakhulu” enokugquma uninzi lwendawo yomoya yaseSyria ngemijukujelwa.
Ukumisa indawo ekungabhabhiyo kuyo kufuna nokuba kuvunyelwene ngamahlakani engingqi - iTurkey lelona qabane likufutshane neSyria, kodwa ligxile kwezi nyanga zidlulileyo. ukuphucula ubudlelwane kunye neMoscow emva kokuba imikhosi yaseTurkey idubule i-jet yaseRashiya ngoNovemba 2015 - okanye ukuthunyelwa kwexabiso elibizayo, elivulekileyo neliyingozi lamaqela athwala iinqwelomoya ukuya empuma yeMeditera.
Kodwa olona phawu lubalaseleyo lwendawo yaseSyria ekungabhabhiyo kuyo ngo-2017 iya kuba bubukho basemoyeni bomnye umkhosi womoya onamandla amakhulu onenjongo echasene neWashington's.
Rhashiya kunye ne-US okwangoku yabelana ngesibhakabhaka ngaphezulu kweSyria kwaye igcine ijelo lonxibelelwano lomkhosi ukuya emkhosini ukunqanda ukujongana.
Kodwa ekubeni besebenza kwiindawo ezahlukeneyo zelizwe kunye neenjongo ezahlukeneyo-i-US empuma ngokuchasene ne-Islamic State, iRussia ukuya ngasentshona ngokuchasene nenkcaso ka-Assad-indawo ebekwe yi-US ekungabhabhiyo ingafaka iinjongo zabo kwingxabano. Akukho mntu waziyo ukuba omabini la macala angaphendula njani ukuba inqwelomoya yaseRussia yaphula intambo yomoya yase-US, okanye indlela yokuphelisa ungquzulwano ngaphambi kokuba idlulele kumlo owandisiweyo.
I-Russia ithe ngoLwesibini izakuqhubeka nokunqumamisa uqhanqalazo lomoya kwisixeko esirhangqiweyo sase-Aleppo, kodwa imithombo yalapha yathi iindawo ezihlala abavukeli ziye zabethwa kwezi ntsuku zidlulileyo.
UKuehn, ngoku ongunjingalwazi wembali yasemkhosini kwiKholeji yoMkhosi wase-US kunye neKholeji yaBasebenzi Jikelele, uthe ukunyuka kungenzeka ngengozi, nokuba kukungqubana ngqo emoyeni, okanye ngokubanjwa kweSyria okanye isiRashiya kumqhubi wenqwelomoya wase-US.
"Andiboni nto ilungileyo inokuvela ekuphumezeni [indawo engabhabhayo] okwangoku eSyria. Ngokuchaseneyo, amandla okwenza imeko embi kakhulu, aphezulu kakhulu, ”utshilo uKuehn.
Kangangeminyaka, amagosa aphezulu omkhosi wase-US avakalise ukuthandabuza ukungenelela kwimfazwe yamakhaya yaseSyria. Ngo-2013, uMartin Dempsey, owayengusihlalo weenkosi ezidibeneyo zabasebenzi, wathi nokuba indawo ekhuselekileyo ekhuselekileyo iya kuba neendleko. ngaphezulu kwe-$1bn ngenyanga kwaye ifuna ii-asethi zomoya ezininzi kunye nemikhosi yasemhlabeni ukuyigcina. Indlalifa yakhe, uJoseph Dunford, uxelele iSenethi kwinyanga ephelileyo ukuba indawo ekungabhabhiyo kuyo “Sifuna ukuba siye kulwa neSiriya neRashiya"Phambi kokuba abuyele kuvavanyo lwakhe phantsi koxinzelelo lommeli wesicelo uJohn McCain.
UClinton, kudala exhasa indawo ekungabhabhiyo kuyo njengoko uphalazo-gazi lwaseSyria lusanda, uye wavuma ezo nkxalabo kwingxoxo yesithathu kamongameli kwiveki ephelileyo.
"Ndiza kuqhubeka nokutyhala indawo ekungabhabheki kuyo kunye neendawo ezikhuselekileyo ngaphakathi kweSyria kungekuphela nje ukunceda ukukhusela amaSyria kunye nokuthintela ukuphuma rhoqo kweembacu," utshilo uClinton, "kodwa, ngokungafihlisiyo, ukufumana amandla kuzo zombini. urhulumente waseSyria kunye namaRussia ukuze mhlawumbi sibe nohlobo lothethathethwano olunzulu oluyimfuneko ukuzisa ungquzulwano esiphelweni kwaye siye phambili kumkhondo wezopolitiko. "
Kodwa iingcali zobuchule zinexesha elinzima lokuqonda indlela indawo ekungabhabhiyo ngayo ibonelela i-US ngomlinganiselo omkhulu owaneleyo wokurhweba ne-Assad okanye iRashiya, kuba injongo yabo, ngokulandelelanayo, kukuzigcina kunye nokugcinwa komthengi.
“Andiqondi ukuba indawo ekungabhabhayo ikwenza njani uye kwindawo yezopolitiko. Akukho mbali ixhasa oko. Bekungekho ndawo zibhabhayo e-Iraq phantse ishumi leminyaka kwaye ayizinzanga nto, utshilo uJoshua Rovner weYunivesithi yaseMazantsi eMethodist.
"Ndinqwenela ukuba le inokuba luhlobo lwenqanaba abonakala linethemba lokuba lilo, kodwa andiboni ukuba kutheni le nto ingabeka isoyikiso esibi ku-Assad okanye kuPutin. Kukwamkela iindleko ezininzi ezintsha ezinezibonelelo ezimbalwa kakhulu.”
Inqaku lokuqala lifunyenwe kwi-Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/25/hillary-clinton-syria-no-fly-zones-russia-us-war
