Ukususela kwiPacific Pivot ukuya kwiNguqulelo eyiGreen

Eli nqaku liyinxalenye yongcelele lweeveki ngeeveki zeFPIF kulawulo luka-Obama “Pacific Pivot,” ephonononga iziphumo zokwakhiwa komkhosi wase-US kwi-Asia-Pacific-zombini kwezopolitiko zommandla kunye noluntu olubizwa ngokuba “lundwendwe”. Unokufunda intshayelelo kaJoseph Gerson kolu ngcelele Apha.

Iinduli ezisezantsi zommandla waseDalateqi we-Inner Mongolia zinwenwe ngobunono emva kwendlu yasefama epeyintiweyo eyonwabisayo. Iibhokhwe kunye neenkomo zitya ngokuzolileyo kumasimi ajikelezileyo. Kodwa hamba usiya ngasentshona umgama oziimitha ezili-100 ukusuka kwindlu yasefama kwaye uya kujongana nenyani enganeno kakhulu yokwalusa: amaza angapheliyo esanti, angekhoyo naluphi na uphawu lobomi, olululelayo ukuya kuthi ga apho linokubona iliso.

Le yintlango yaseKubuchi, irhamncwa elizalwe kukutshintsha kwemozulu echwechwela ngokungagungqiyo ngasempuma ukuya eBeijing, kumgama oziikhilomitha ezingama-800. Ingaqwalaselwanga, iya kugubungela ikomkhulu lase China kwixesha elizayo elingekude kangako. Eli rhamncwa lisenokungabonakali okwangoku eWashington, kodwa imimoya ebhudla ngamandla ithwala isanti yayo isisa eBeijing naseSeoul, kwaye ezinye ziyenza yonke indlela ukuya kunxweme olusempuma lweUnited States.

Ukuba yintlango kusisisongelo esikhulu kubomi bomntu. Iintlango zisasazeka ngesantya esonyukayo kwilizwekazi ngalinye. I-United States yafumana ilahleko enkulu yobomi kunye nendlela yokuphila ngexesha leDust Bowl yeAmerican Great Plains ngeminyaka yee-1920, njengoko wenzayo ummandla waseSahel eNtshona Afrika ekuqaleni kweminyaka yee-1970. Kodwa utshintsho lwemozulu luthatha ubuntlango kwinqanaba elitsha, isoyikisa ngokudala izigidi, ekugqibeleni iibhiliyoni, zabantu ababaleki bemekobume kulo lonke elaseAsia, eAfrika, eOstreliya naseMelika. Isinye kwisithandathu sabemi baseMali naseBurkina Faso sele beziimbacu ngenxa yokusasazeka kweentlango. Imiphumo yayo yonke le ntlabathi erhubuluzayo ixabisa ihlabathi ii-R42 zamawaka ezigidi ngonyaka, ngokutsho kweNkqubo yokuSingqongileyo ye-UN.

Ukusasazeka kweentlango, kudityaniswa nokomisa kweelwandle, ukunyibilika komkhenkce osemajukujukwini, kunye nokonakala kwezityalo nezilwanyana emhlabeni, kwenza ihlabathi lethu lingabonakali. Imifanekiso yemihlaba eyinkqantosi ethunyelwe yi-NASA's Curiosity Rover esuka kuMars inokuba ziifoto zekamva lethu elilusizi.

Kodwa ngekhe wazi ukuba ubuntlango sisivakalisi se-apocalypse ukuba ujonge iiwebhusayithi zeWashington. Ukukhangela kwiwebhusayithi yeBrookings Institution yegama elithi "i-missile" ivelise ukungena kwe-1,380, kodwa "intlango" ivelise i-paltry 24. Ukukhangela okufanayo kwiwebhusayithi ye- Foundation Foundation iye yavelisa amagama angama-2,966 XNUMX “kwimijukujelwa” yaza yantathu kuphela “yokuba yintlango.” Nangona izoyikiso ezinjengokutshabalala kwentlango sele zibulala abantu—kwaye ziya kubulala abaninzi ngakumbi kumashumi eminyaka ezayo—abafumani ngqalelo phantse ingako, okanye izixhobo, njengezoyikiso zokhuseleko zemveli ezifana nobunqolobi okanye uhlaselo lomjukujelwa, olubulala abambalwa kakhulu.

Intlango sesinye kuphela kwizisongelo zemekobume—ukususela ekunqongophelweni kokutya nezifo ezitsha ukusa ekutshatyalalisweni kwezityalo nezilwanyana okubaluleke gqitha kwibhayolosphere—nto leyo esongela ukutshatyalaliswa kweentlobo zethu zezinto eziphilayo. Nangona kunjalo asikaqalisi ukuphuhlisa itekhnoloji, amaqhinga, kunye nombono wexesha elide oyimfuneko ukujongana nesi soyikiso sokhuseleko ngqo. Abathwali beenqwelomoya zethu, imijukujelwa ekhokelwayo, kunye nemfazwe ye-cyber ayinamsebenzi ngokuchasene nesi soyikiso njengoko iintonga kunye namatye zichasene neitanki kunye nehelikopta.

Ukuba siza kusinda ngaphaya kwale nkulungwane, kufuneka ngokusisiseko siyiguqule indlela esiluqonda ngayo unqabiseko. Abo basebenza emkhosini kufuneka bamkele umbono omtsha ngokupheleleyo wemikhosi yethu exhobileyo. Ukuqala ngeUnited States, imikhosi yehlabathi imele inikele ubuncinane ama-50 ekhulwini ohlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwayo ekuphuhliseni nasekusebenziseni ubugcisa bokunqanda ukwanda kweentlango, ukuvuselela iilwandlekazi, nokuguqula ngokupheleleyo iinkqubo zemizi-mveliso ezonakalisayo zanamhlanje zibe kuqoqosho olutsha. zizinzileyo ngokwenyani yegama.

Eyona ndawo ilungileyo yokuqalisa iseMpuma yeAsia, kugxilwe kulawulo luka-Obama oluxatyiswa kakhulu “kwiPacific pivot”. Ukuba asiphumezi uhlobo olwahluke kakhulu lwepivot kulo mmandla wehlabathi, kwaye kungekudala, intlabathi yasentlango kunye nokunyuka kwamanzi kuya kusigubungela sonke.

Ukubaluleka kokusiNgqongileyo kweAsia

IMpuma ye-Asiya isebenza ngakumbi njengenjini eqhuba uqoqosho lwehlabathi, kwaye imigaqo-nkqubo yayo yengingqi ibeka imigangatho yehlabathi. I-China, i-South Korea, i-Japan, kunye ne-Russia ekhulayo yaseMpuma inyusa ubunkokeli babo behlabathi kuphando, imveliso yenkcubeko, kunye nokusekwa kwemimiselo yolawulo nolawulo. Lixesha elivuyisayo kwiMpuma yeAsia elithembisa ngamathuba amakhulu.

Kodwa iindlela ezimbini eziphazamisayo zisongela ukuyiphelisa le Nkulungwane yePasifiki. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, uphuhliso olukhawulezayo lwezoqoqosho kunye nogxininiso kwimveliso yezoqoqosho ngokukhawuleza-ngokuchasene nokukhula okuzinzileyo-kube negalelo ekusasazekeni kweentlango, ukuhla kwamanzi ahlambulukileyo, kunye nenkcubeko yabathengi ekhuthaza izinto ezilahlayo kunye nokusetyenziswa okungaboniyo. iindleko zokusingqongileyo.

Kwelinye icala, ukunyuka okungayekiyo kwenkcitho yasemkhosini kulo mmandla kusongela ukujongela phantsi isithembiso salo mmandla. Ngo-2012, eTshayina yandise inkcitho yayo emkhosini nge-11 ekhulwini, egqithisa i-100-bhiliyoni uphawu okokuqala. Ukunyuka kwamanani aphindwe kabini kuye kwanceda abamelwane baseTshayina ukuba bonyuse uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwasemkhosini. I-South Korea iye yanda ngokuqhubekayo inkcitho yayo emkhosini, kunye nokunyuka kwe-5-pesenti ye-2012. umchithi omkhulu wesithandathu ehlabathini, ngokutsho kweStockholm International Peace Research Institute. Le nkcitho ivuselele ugqatso lwezixhobo esele lunwenwela kuMzantsi-mpuma Asia, eMzantsi Asia, nakuMbindi Asia.

Yonke le nkcitho inxulunyaniswe nenkcitho enkulu yasemkhosini e-United States, eyona nto iphambili kumkhosi wehlabathi. ICongress ngoku iqwalasela uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwe-Pentagon yeebhiliyoni ezingama-607, eyi-3 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ngaphezulu koko bekucelwe ngumongameli. I-United States idale isangqa esikhohlakeleyo sempembelelo kwindawo yomkhosi. I-Pentagon ikhuthaza oogxa bayo ukuba bakhulise inkcitho yabo ukuze bathenge izixhobo zase-US kunye nokugcina ukusebenzisana kweenkqubo. Kodwa nanjengoko iUnited States ithathela ingqalelo ukucuthwa kwePentagon njengenxalenye yesivumelwano sokunciphisa amatyala, icela amahlakani ayo ukuba athwale umthwalo omninzi. Nokuba yeyiphi na indlela, iWashington ityhala amahlakani ayo ukuba anikele ngezixhobo ezingaphezulu emkhosini, nto leyo eyomeleza ngakumbi umdyarho wezixhobo kulo mmandla.

Abezopolitiko baseYurophu babephupha ngelizwekazi elinoxolo elihlangeneyo kwiminyaka eli-100 eyadlulayo. Kodwa iingxwabangxwaba ezingaconjululwanga eziphathelele umhlaba, ubuncwane, nemibandela engokwembali, kudityaniswa nenkcitho eyongezelelekileyo yasemkhosini, zabangela iimfazwe zehlabathi ezimbini ezitshabalalisayo. Ukuba iinkokeli zase-Asiya azilubambi ugqatso lwezixhobo lwangoku, zizibeka emngciphekweni wesiphumo esifanayo, nokuba zithini na iintetho zazo malunga nokuhlalisana ngoxolo.

IPivot eluhlaza

Izisongelo zokusingqongileyo kunye nenkcitho ebalekayo yasemkhosini zizo Scylla noCharybdis apho iMpuma yeAsia kunye nehlabathi kufuneka zijikeleze. Kodwa mhlawumbi ezi zilo zinokujikiswa omnye komnye. Ukuba bonke abathathi-nxaxheba kwi-East Asia edibeneyo bachaza kwakhona "ukhuseleko" ngokudibeneyo ukubhekisela ngokuyinhloko kwizisongelo zokusingqongileyo, intsebenziswano phakathi kwemikhosi echaphazelekayo ukujongana nemingeni yokusingqongileyo inokusebenza njengento ekhuthaza ukuvelisa i-paradigm entsha yokuhlalisana.

Onke amazwe athe ngokuthe ngcembe ayandisa inkcitho yawo kwimiba yokusingqongileyo – inkqubo yaseTshayina edumileyo ye-863, iphakheji yokuvuselela uhlaza yolawulo luka-Obama, utyalo-mali oluluhlaza lukaLee Myung-bak eMzantsi Korea. Kodwa oku akwanelanga. Kufuneka ihambe kunye nokunciphisa okunzulu kumkhosi oqhelekileyo. Kule minyaka ilishumi izayo iTshayina, iJapan, iKorea, iUnited States kunye nezinye izizwe zaseAsia kufuneka ziphinde zibuyisele inkcitho yazo emkhosini ukujongana nokhuseleko lokusingqongileyo. Uthumo lwalo lonke icandelo lomkhosi kwilizwe ngalinye kula mazwe kufuneka luchazwe ngokutsha, kwaye iinjengele ezazicetywe ngemfazwe yomhlaba kunye nokuhlaselwa kwemijukujelwa kufuneka ziphinde ziqeqeshe ukujongana nesi songelo sitsha ngokubambisana ngokusondeleyo.

Ibutho laseMelika Lokulondolozwa Kwabemi, elasebenzisa inkqubo yomkhosi njengenxalenye yephulo lokulungisa iingxaki zemekobume eUnited States ngeminyaka yee-1930, linokuba ngumzekelo wentsebenziswano entsha eMpuma Asia. Sele i-NGO yamazwe ngamazwe i-Future Forest izisa ulutsha lwaseKorea nolwaseTshayina ukuze lusebenze njengeqela lokutyala imithi “kwiWall yayo enkulu eluhlaza” ukuze iqulathe iNtlango yaseKubuchi. Phantsi kobunkokeli bowayesakuba ngunozakuzaku waseMzantsi Korea e-China u-Kwon Byung Hyun, i-Future Forest idibene nabantu basekuhlaleni ukutyala imithi kunye nokukhusela umhlaba.

Inyathelo lokuqala liya kuba lelokuba amazwe abize iForam yeGreen Pivot echaza ezona zisongelo zokusingqongileyo, izixhobo ezifunekayo ukulwa iingxaki, kunye nokungafihli nto kwinkcitho yasemkhosini efunekayo ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuba onke amazwe ayavumelana malunga namanani asisiseko.

Inyathelo elilandelayo liya kuba ngumceli mngeni ngakumbi: ukwamkela ifomula ecwangcisiweyo yokwabiwa ngokutsha kwenxalenye nganye yenkqubo yomkhosi yangoku. Mhlawumbi umkhosi wamanzi wawuya kujongana ngokuyintloko nokukhusela nokubuyisela iilwandlekazi, umkhosi womoya wawuya kuthwala uxanduva lomoya osingqongileyo nokukhutshwa kwezinto ezikhutshwayo, umkhosi wawuya kunyamekela ukusetyenziswa komhlaba namahlathi, oomatiloshe beza kujongana nemiba entsonkothileyo yemekobume, kwaye ubukrelekrele buya kusingatha inkqubo ecwangcisiweyo. ukubeka esweni imeko yemo engqongileyo yehlabathi. Kwisithuba seminyaka elishumi, ngaphezu kwama-50 ekhulwini ohlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwasemkhosini eTshayina, eJapan, eKorea naseUnited States—namanye amazwe—beluya kunikelwa kukhuseleko lwemekobume nokubuyisela inkqubo yendalo.

Nje ukuba ugxininiso lokucwangciswa komkhosi kunye nophando lutshintshwe, intsebenziswano iya kuba yinto enokwenzeka kwinqanaba elalikade liphupha kuphela. Ukuba utshaba lutshintsho lwemozulu, intsebenziswano esondeleyo phakathi kwe-United States, i-China, iJapan kunye neRiphabhlikhi yaseKorea ayinakwenzeka kuphela, ibaluleke kakhulu.

Njengamazwe ngamazwe kunye noluntu lwamazwe ngamazwe, sinokukhetha: Singakwazi ukuqhubeka nokusukelana nokhuseleko ngokuziphendulela ngamandla omkhosi. Okanye sinokukhetha ukulungisa ezona ngxaki zicinezelayo esijongene nazo: imeko yezoqoqosho yehlabathi, utshintsho lwemozulu, kunye nokwanda kwenyukliya.

Utshaba lusemasangweni; Ngaba siya kuluthobela olu bizo lucacileyo lwenkonzo, okanye siya kusuka nje sigqume iintloko zethu entlabathini?