NguRobert Alvarez, Septemba 11, 2017, I-Bulletin ye-Atomic Scientists.
I-December 1, 2017
Lixesha lokuba ufumane indlela yokuphelisa iminyaka engama-67 yemfazwe yaseKorea. Njengoko isoyikiso semfazwe yasemkhosini, uluntu lwaseMelika ikakhulu aluzazi iinyani ezothusayo malunga nemfazwe ende kakhulu eMelika engasonjululwanga kwaye yenye yezona zibulala igazi ehlabathini. Isivumelwano somkhosi wowe-1953 esenziwe nguMongameli u-Eisenhower-sokumisa "isenzo samapolisa" seminyaka emithathu esikhokelele kwizigidi ezibini ukuya kwizigidi zokufa kwabantu emkhosini kunye nabantu-silibalekile kudala. Ukubethwa ziinkokheli zomkhosi wase-North Korea, i-United States, i-South Korea, kunye ne-United Nations kunye nabo ukuba bayeke ukulwa, i-armistice ayizange ilandelwe sisivumelwano soxolo esisemthethweni sokuphelisa le mpikiswano ye-Cold War yokuqala.
Igosa leSebe likaRhulumente landikhumbuza ngale meko ingazinzanga ngaphambi kokuba ndiye kwindawo yenyukliya yaseYoungbyon ngoNovemba 1994 ukunceda ukukhusela ipetroliyamu ephethe ipetonium njengenxalenye yeNkqubo-sikhokelo eVumelanayo phakathi kwe-United States ne-North Korea. Ndicebise ukuba sithathe izifudumezi sendawo kwindawo yokugcina ipetroli esetyenzisiweyo, ukubonelela ngemfudumalo kumaKorea aseMntla azokusebenza ebusika ukubeka iintonga zombane ezichithwe ngemitha kwizikhongozeli, apho banokuxhomekeka khona kwiArhente yaMandla eNyukliya yeHlabathi ( IAEA) ukhuseleko. Igosa leSebe likaRhulumente lakhathazeka. Nditsho nasemva kweminyaka engama-40 emva kokuphela kobutshaba, sasingavunyelwa ukuba sithuthuzele utshaba, ngaphandle kwengqele eqatha eyayiphazamisa umsebenzi wabo-kunye-wethu.
Indlela isiKhokelo esivumelene ngayo sawa. Ngentwasahlobo nehlobo lowe-1994, i-United States yayikwinqanaba lokungqubana neNyakatho Korea malunga neenzame zayo zokuvelisa iplutonium yokwenza izixhobo zayo zokuqala zenyukliya. Enkosi kwinxalenye enkulu yediplomacy yowayesakuba nguMongameli uJimmy Carter, owadibana ubuso ngobuso noKim Il Sung, umseki weDemocratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), ilizwe lasuka elunxwemeni. Kule nzame kwavela uluhlu ngokubanzi lweNkqubo-sikhokelo evunyelweneyo, esayinwe nge-12 ka-Okthobha ka-1994. Ihleli ingukuphela kwesivumelwano sikarhulumente kurhulumente esakha senziwa phakathi kwe-United States ne-North Korea.
Isakhelo ekuvunyelwene ngaso sisivumelwano esingamazwe amabini esivule ucango lokuphela kwemfazwe yaseKorea. I-North Korea ivumile ukuyiphelisa inkqubo yayo yokuvelisa i-plutonium endaweni yeoyile enzima, intsebenziswano kwezoqoqosho, kunye nolwakhiwo lwezixhobo zamandla enyukliya zamanzi ezikhanyayo anamhlanje. Ekugqibeleni, izixhobo zenyukliya ezikhoyo zaseNyakatho Korea zaziza kudilizwa kwaye ipetroli eyenziweyo esetyenzisiweyo yathatyathwa kweli lizwe. UMzantsi Korea udlale indima ebonakalayo ekuncedeni ukulungiselela ukwakhiwa kwezi zixhobo zimbini. Ngexesha layo lesibini e-ofisini, ulawulo lukaClinton lwalusondela ekumiseni ubudlelwane obuqhelekileyo noMntla. Umcebisi kaMongameli uWendy Sherman uchaze isivumelwano neNorth Korea sokuba kupheliswe imijukujelwa yayo ekumgama ophakathi kunye nomgama omde njengo "kusondele ngokuthandekayo" phambi kokuba uthethathethwano lugqitywe kunyulo luka-2000.
Kodwa isakhelo sachaswa ngokukrakra ngabaninzi beRiphabhlikhi, kwaye xa i-GOP yathatha ulawulo lweCongress ngo-1995, yaphosa izithintelo endleleni, iphazamisa ukuthunyelwa kweoyile yeoyile eNyakatho Korea kunye nokukhuselwa kwezinto ezineplutonium ezikhoyo apho. Emva kokuba uGeorge W. Bush enyulwe njengomongameli, iinzame zolawulo lukaClinton zatshintshwa ngomgaqo-nkqubo ocacileyo wotshintsho kulawulo. Kwintetho yakhe yobume boManyano ngoJanuwari 2002, uBush wabhengeza iNorth Korea njengelungu lomnqophiso “wobubi.” NgoSeptemba, UBush uchaza ngokucacileyo iNyakatho Korea kumgaqo-nkqubo wezokukhusela wesizwe owawufuna ukuhlaselwa kwangaphambili kumazwe aphuhlisa izixhobo zokubhubhisa.
Oku kubeke inqanaba lentlanganiso yamazwe amabini ngo-Okthobha ka-2002, ngexa uMncedisi Nobhala welizwe uJames Kelly wanyanzelisa ukuba iNorth Korea iyeke inkqubo eyimfihlo yokucebisa i-uranium okanye ijongane neziphumo ezibi. Nangona ulawulo lwe-Bush luye lwaqinisekisa ukuba inkqubo yokucebisa ayichazwanga, yayiluluntu-kwi-Congress nakwimithombo yeendaba-ngo-1999. I-North Korea yayithobele ngokungqongqo i-Agreed Framework, yaqanda imveliso ye-plutonium kangangeminyaka esibhozo. Izikhuselo malunga nokucetyiswa kwe-uranium ziye zachazwa isivumelwano de kube yenze inkqubela eyaneleyo ekuphuhlisweni kwamagcini amanzi okukhanya; kodwa ukuba ukulibaziseka kubonakala kuyingozi, isivumelwano singasilungiswa. Kungekudala emva kweSullivan's ultimatum, iNorth Korea yaphelisa inkqubo yokukhusela yamachiza enyukliya ayichitha kwaye yaqala ukwahlula i-plutonium kwaye ivelise izixhobo zenukliya-igalela ingxaki epheleleyo, njengoko ulawulo lweBush lwalulungele ukuhlasela i-Iraq.
Ekugqibeleni, iinzame zolawulo lwe-Bush zokulungisa isigxina kwinkqubo yenyukliya yaseNyakatho Korea-aka i-Six-Party Talks-ayiphumelelanga, ngokuyininzi ngenxa yokuxhaswa kweMelika yaseMelika kunye nokuphikelela "konke okanye akukho" ukugqitywa ngokupheleleyo kweprogram yenyukliya ngaphambi kokuba uxoxisane kakhulu. Kwakhona, kunye nokhetho lukaMongameli lwaseMelika olukufuphi, amaNorth Korea ayemele akhumbule ukuba iplagi yatshitshiswa njani kwisiKhokelo esivumelekileyo emva kokhetho lwe-2000.
Ngethuba likaMongameli u-Obama wathatha isikhundla, iNorth Korea yayisendleleni eya ekubeni yindawo yezixhobo zenyukliya kwaye yayifinyelela umda wokuvavanya imikhosi ye-ballistic intercontinental. Ukuchazwa ngokuthi "umonde," umgaqo-nkqubo ka-Obama wawuchukunyiswa kakhulu kwizinga le-nyukliya kunye nokuphuhliswa komkhosi, ngokukodwa njengoKim Jong-un, umzukulwana womsunguli, wenyuka waya kumandla. Ngaphantsi kolawulo luka-Obama, izigwebo zezoqoqosho kunye nokwenyuka kwexesha lokuzibandakanya emkhosini zihlangene kunye nokunyanzeliswa kweNyakatho yaseKorea. Ngoku, phantsi kolawulo lweTrump, i-United States yase-United States, iSouth Korea neJapan-yayijoliswe ekuboniseni "umlilo kunye nobushushu" obunokutshabalalisa ulawulo lwe-DPRK-kubonakala ukuba lukhawuleze ukukhawuleza kwenyathelo iNorth Korea ela ukuvavanywa kwayo kwexesha elide kunye nokukhutshwa kwezixhobo zenyukliya ezinamandla.
Ukujongana nezixhobo zenuzi zeNyakatho Korea. Imbewu ye-DPRK enezixhobo zamandla enyukliya yatyalwa xa iUnited States igxotha iSivumelwano se-Armytice 1953. Ukususela kwi-1957, i-US yaphula umthetho obalulekileyo wesivumelwano (umhlathi 13d), owavimbela ukuveliswa kweempahla ezonakalisayo kwi-peninsula yaseKorea, Ekugqibeleni ukuthumela amawaka eetrikhali zezixhobo zenukliya e-South Korea, kubandakanya i-atomic artillery shells, iimfazwe ezijikijelwe ngemijukujelwa kunye neebhombu zomxhuzulane, imijikelezo yeathom "bazooka" kunye nezixhobo zokudiliza (20 kiloton "back-pack" nukes). Kwi-1991, emva koko-uMongameli uGeorge HW Bush warhoxa kuzo zonke iinjukhi zobuchule. Kwiminyaka engama-34 yokungenelela, nangona kunjalo, i-United States yakhulula ugqatso lwezixhobo zenyukliya-phakathi kwamasebe omkhosi wayo kwi-Peninsula yaseKorea! Olu lwakhiwo lwenyukliya lukhulu eMzantsi lubonelele ngamandla eNyakatho Korea ukuhambisa phambili umkhosi omkhulu oqhelekileyo onokutshabalalisa iSeoul.
Ngoku, ezinye iinkokeli zemikhosi zaseMzantsi Korea zibiza ukubuyiswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya zase-US kwilizwe, ezingenakwenza nto ngaphandle kokunyusa ingxaki yokujongana nenokliya yeNorth Korea. Ubukho bezixhobo zenyukliya zase-US abuzange buvimbele ukunyuka kweNorth Korea kwi-1960 kunye ne-1970, ixesha elaziwa ngokuba "Yimbini yaseKorea iMfazwe," ngelixa i-1,000 South Korea kunye ne-75 yaseMerika yabulawa. Phakathi kwezinye izenzo, imikhosi yaseNyakatho yaseKorea yahlasela yabamba i-Pueblo, isitya se-Naval intelligence se-US, kwi-1968, ebulala ilungu lomsebenzi kunye nokuthatha abanye abantu be-82. Le nqanawa ayizange iphindwe.
I-North Korea kudala inyanzelisa ukuba kuthethwe ngeentetho eziza kukhokelela kwisivumelwano sokungabinabundlobongela ne-United States. Urhulumente wase-US uhlala ezigxotha izicelo zakhe zesivumelwano soxolo kuba zibonwa njengamaqhinga ayilelwe ukunciphisa ubukho bemikhosi yase-US eSouth Korea, evumela ubundlongondlongo obungaphezulu eMantla. IWashington Post kaJackson Diehl iyangqinelana nale mvakalelo kutshanje, iqinisekisa ukuba INyakatho Korea ayinomdla ngokusisigqibo sokuthula. Ngoxa ekhankanya inkcazo yeNkulumbuso yaseNyakatho yaseKorea yase-Korea, uKim In Ryong, ukuba ilizwe lakhe "aliyi kubeka ukukhuseleka kwesikhokelo senyukliya ekuziphenduleleni," i-Diehl yashiya iRiong ebalulekileyo: "Nje ngokuba i-US iyaqhubeka isongela."
Kule minyaka ili-15 idlulileyo, imithambo yomkhosi yokulungiselela umlo neNyakatho Korea inyuke kubungakanani kunye nexesha. Kutshanje, uTrevor uNowa, umphathi weComedy Central ejongwe kakhulu I-Daily Show, wabuza uChristopher Hill, intetho engumongameli oyintloko wase-US kwiintetho ze-Six-Party ngexesha likaGeorge W. Bush iminyaka, malunga nokuqeqeshwa komkhosi; Hill yavakalisa ukuba "Asizange silungiselele ukuhlasela" Emantla ekorea. Intaba yayingenakulwazi okanye ingafani. I Washington Post ingxelo yokuba umkhosi wamajoni ngo-Matshi 2016 wawusekelwe kwisicwangciso, esivunyelwene yi-United States kunye neSouth Korea, eyaquka "imisebenzi yokulwa nemikhosi" kunye nokuthi "ukuhlaselwa kwezempi" ngamagunya akhethekileyo ajolise ekukholeni koMntla. Washington Post inqaku, isazi sezempi sase-US asizange siphikisana nesicwangciso sobukho kodwa sathi sinako ukuthotyelwa kakhulu.
Kungakhathaliseki ukuba banokuthi baqalise ukuphunyezwa, le miba yonyaka yokumisa imfazwe isicwangciso sokuncedisa ukunyusa kwaye mhlawumbi iqinise ukunyanzeliswa kobuqhophololo ngabakhokeli baseNyakatho yaseKorea abantu bayo, abahlala beloyiko lwexesha elizayo lokulwa. Ngethuba lokutyelela eNyakatho Korea, sabona indlela ulawulo lwangena ngayo abemi balo ngezikhumbuzo malunga nokuqothulwa okubangelwa yi-napalm ukuba iindiza zase-US zaye zadlula ngexesha lemfazwe. Ngo-1953, ukuqhubhisa kwe-US kwabhubhisa phantse zonke izakhiwo zaseNyakatho Korea. UDean Rusk, uNobhala kaRhulumente ngexesha lolawulo lukaKennedy noJohnson, uthe emva kweminyaka emininzi ibhomu yachithwa kwi "yonke into eya kwiNyakatho Korea, zonke izitena zimi ngaphezu komnye." Kule minyaka, urhulumente waseNorth Korea uye wavelisa Inkqubo enkulu yemigudu engaphantsi komhlaba esetyenziselwa ukukhusela iindawo zorhulumente rhoqo.
Kusemva kwexesha kakhulu ukuba ungalindela i-DPRK ukuba iyeke iingalo zenyukliya. Le bhulorho yatshatyalaliswa xa isiKhokelo esiVumelanisiweyo salahlwa kulwaluko olungaphumeleliyo lolawulo, into enganikeli kuphela inkuthazo enamandla kodwa kunye nexesha elininzi le-DPRK yokuqokelela izixhobo zenyukliya. Unobhala welizwe u-Tillerson kutsha nje uthe "asifuni lutshintsho kulawulo, asifuni ukuwa kolawulo." Ngelishwa, uTillerson urhaxiwe ngenxa yokugubungela ii-tweets ezinobundlobongela nguMongameli uTrump kunye nokuhlaselwa ngamabanjwa ngamagosa asemkhosini nakwezobuntlola.
Ekugqibeleni, isisombululo esinokuthula kwisimo seNyukliya yaseNyakatho siya kubandakanya intetho ethetha ngokuthe ngqo kunye nokuziphatha okulungileyo kumacala omabini, njengokunciphisa okanye ukumiswa kwemikhosi yaseMelika, yaseMzantsi Korea kunye neJapane, kwaye ukukhatywa kwezixhobo zenyukliya kunye nokuhlolwa kwe-missile ye-missile yi-DPRK. Amanyathelo anjalo aya kuvelisa inkcaso enkulu evela kumagosa asekuhlaleni ase-US akholelwa ukuba amandla omkhosi kunye nezohlwayo yiyodwa iifom zokubaluleka eziza kusebenza nxamnye nolawulo lwaseNyakatho yeKorea. Kodwa isiKhokelo esiVieleneyo kunye nokuwa kwayo kunika isifundo esibalulekileyo malunga nemingcipheko yokusukela utshintsho lolawulo. Ngoku, isivumelwano sokulawula izixhobo zenyukliya sinokuphela kwendlela yokwenza isahluko esipheleleyo seMfazwe yeCold kwiindawo ezinokuthula. Kunzima ukukholisa umntu ukuba enze isivumelwano, ukuba uyaqiniseka ukuba uceba ukumbulala, kungakhathaliseki ukuba wenza ntoni.
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Umphengululi omkhulu kwiZiko leMfundo yoMgaqo-nkqubo, uRobert Alvarez usebenze njengomcebisi womgaqo-nkqubo omkhulu kuNobhala weSebe lezaMandla kunye nosekela-Nobhala Wezokhuseleko kukazwelonke kunye nokusingqongileyo ukusukela ngo-1993 ukuya ku-1999. Ngeli xesha lokulawula, wakhokela amaqela eNyakatho Korea ukuba enze ulawulo. yezixhobo zenyukliya. Ukwaququzelele isicwangciso sobuchule sesebe lenyukliya seSebe lezaMandla kunye nokuseka inkqubo yokuqala yesebe yolawulo lweeasethi. Phambi kokujoyina iSebe lezaMandla, u-Alvarez usebenze iminyaka emihlanu njengomphenyi omkhulu kwiKomiti yeeNdlu zeeNgwevu zase-US kwimicimbi kaRhulumente, egcinwe ngu-Sen.John Glenn, nanjengomnye weengcali eziphambili zeSenate kwinkqubo yezixhobo zenyukliya zase-US. Ngo-1975, u-Alvarez wanceda ekufumaneni nasekukhokeleni iZiko loMgaqo-nkqubo wokusiNgqongileyo, umbutho ohlonitshwayo wesizwe onomdla woluntu. Uye wanceda nokuququzelela isigwebo esiphumelelayo egameni losapho lukaKaren Silkwood, umsebenzi wenyukliya kunye nelungu lomanyano elisebenzayo elabulawa phantsi kweemeko ezimangalisayo ngo-1974. U-Alvarez upapashe amanqaku inzululwazi, i I-Bulletin ye-Atomic Scientists, Uhlolo lwezobugcisa, yaye IWashington Post. Uye wabonwa kwiiprogram zethelevishini ezifana NOVA kwaye 60 Imizuzu.
