Ngaba Uyafuna Imfazwe Yomlomo Omtsha? Umdibaniso we-AUKUS uthatha umhlaba uye eBrink

Ngaphambi kokuba kudlule ixesha, kufuneka sizibuze umbuzo obalulekileyo: Ngaba ngokwenene-ndithetha inyani-sifuna iMfazwe ebandayo ne China?

Kungenxa yokuba kulapho ulawulo lweBiden lusithatha ngokucacileyo. Ukuba ufuna ubungqina, jonga kwinyanga ephelileyo isaziso Umanyano lomkhosi "iAUKUS" (Australia, United Kingdom, US) eAsia. Ndikholelwe, kuyinto eyoyikeka kakhulu (kwaye inobuhlanga ngakumbi) kunesivumelwano sangaphantsi kolwandle esine-nyukliya kunye ne-kerfuffle yozakuzo yaseFrance eyayilawula ukuhanjiswa kwayo. Ngokugxila ekuphenduleni komFrentshi ngokulahlekeleyo kwisivumelwano sabo sokuthengisa i-non-nuclear subs e-Australia, uninzi lwamajelo eendaba ephosakeleyo Ibali elikhulu kakhulu: ukuba urhulumente wase-US kunye namahlakani akhe bonke kodwa babhengeza ngokusesikweni iMfazwe ebandayo ngokusungula ulwakhiwo lomkhosi olulungelelanisiweyo e-East Asia ngokungathandabuzekiyo ejolise e-China.

Akukashiywa lixesha ukuba ukhethe indlela yoxolo ngakumbi. Ngelishwa, lo mfelandawonye weAnglo uza ngokusondeleyo ekutshixeleni umhlaba kungquzulwano olunokuthi ngokulula lube yimfazwe eshushu, nokuba yinyukliya, phakathi kwamazwe amabini atyebileyo, anamandla emhlabeni.

Ukuba umncinci kakhulu ukuba ungaphila kwimfazwe ebandayo yokuqala njengam, cinga ngokulala usoyika ukuba ungavuka kusasa, enkosi kwimfazwe yenyukliya phakathi kwamagunya amabini (ngaloo mihla, i-United States kunye neSoviet Union). Khawufane ucinge uhamba udlula nuclear iindawo zokuwa, wenza "idada nesigqubuthelo”Uqheliso phantsi kwedesika yesikolo sakho, kunye nokufumana ezinye izikhumbuzo rhoqo zokuba, nangawuphi na umzuzu, imfazwe yamandla amakhulu inokuphelisa ubomi eMhlabeni.

Ngaba ngenene silifuna ikamva lokoyika? Ngaba sifuna i-United States kunye notshaba lwayo ekucingelwa ukuba iphinde iphinde ichithe Iibhiliyoni ezingenakubalwa Iidola kwinkcitho yomkhosi ngelixa ungakhathaleli iimfuno ezisisiseko zabantu, kubandakanya ukhathalelo lwempilo kwindalo iphela, imfundo, ukutya, kunye nezindlu, singasathethi ke ngokusilela ukujongana ngokufanelekileyo nolunye usongelo oluza kubakho, utshintsho lwemozulu?

Umkhosi waseMelika wase-Asia

Xa uMongameli uJoe Biden, Inkulumbuso yase-Australia u-Scott Morrison, kunye ne-Nkulumbuso yase-Bhritane u-Boris Johnson babhengeza konke-naboWowuUmanyano olubizwa ngokuba yi-AUKUS umfelandawonye, ​​uninzi lwamajelo eendaba lujolise kwinxalenye yesivumelwano: Fransi. Ukujongana nelahleko yamashumi ezigidi zeerandi kwaye uvaliwe kwi-Anglo Alliance, Umphathiswa Wezangaphandle wase-France uJean-Yves Le Drian wabiza isivumelwano "hlaba emqolo. ” Ngethuba lokuqala kwimbali, iFrance ngokufutshane khumbula Unozakuzaku wayo ovela eWashington. Amagosa aseFrance nokuba rhoxiswa I-gala yayithetha ukubhiyozela ubuhlakani bukaFranco-America ukusukela okoyiswa kwe-Great Britain kwi-Revolutionary War.

Ukubanjwa ngokumangalisayo kukungalawuleki ngenxa yomanyano (kunye nothethathethwano oluyimfihlo olwaluphambi kwalo), ulawulo lweBiden lwathatha amanyathelo okulungisa ubudlelwane, kwaye inxusa laseFrance labuyela eWashington. NgoSeptemba kwiZizwe eziManyeneyo, uMongameli Biden wathi wathi into yokugqibela ayifunayo “yiMfazwe Yomlomo okanye ihlabathi lahlulwe langamabutho angqwabalala.” Ngelishwa, isenzo sabaphathi bakhe sicacisa ngenye indlela.

Khawufane ucinge ukuba amagosa olawulo akwaBiden angaziva njani ngokubhengezwa komanyano lwe "VERUCH" (VEnezuela, RUssia, neCHina). Khawufane ucinge ukuba bangasabela njani kulwakhiwo lweziseko zomkhosi waseTshayina kunye namawaka amajoni amaTshayina eVenezuela. Khawufane ucinge indlela abasabela ngayo ekuthunyelweni rhoqo kwazo zonke iintlobo zeenqwelomoya zomkhosi waseTshayina, iinkwili, kunye neenqanawa zemfazwe eVenezuela, ukwanda kokuhlola, ukukhulisa amandla e-cyberwarfare, kunye nendawo efanelekileyo yemisebenzi, kunye nemithambo yomkhosi ebandakanya amawaka amajoni amaTshayina nawaseRussia hayi nje eVenezuela kodwa emanzini aseAtlantiki kumgama othe qelele eUnited States. Iqela likaBiden liza kuvakalelwa njani malunga nokuhanjiswa kwesikhephe seenkwili ezisebenzisa amandla enyukliya kwelo lizwe, kubandakanya ukutshintshwa kwetekhnoloji yenyukliya kunye ne-uranium yezixhobo zenyukliya?

Akukho nanye kwezi yenzekileyo, kodwa ezi ingangumlinganiso weNtshona yeLizwe.amanyathelo amakhulu okuma”Amagosa aseMelika, eOstreliya naseBritane asandula ukubhengeza ngeMpuma Asia. Amagosa e-AUKUS ngokungathandabuzekiyo achaza umanyano lwawo njengokwenza iindawo ezithile zaseAsia “zikhuseleke kwaye zikhuseleke ngakumbi,” ngelixa zisakha “ikamva loxolo [kunye] namathuba kubo bonke abantu bommandla.” Iinkokeli ezingenakulindeleka zase-US ziya kujonga ukwakhiwa komkhosi waseTshayina ofanayo eVenezuela okanye naphi na eMelika njengeresiphi efanayo yokhuseleko noxolo.

Ukuphendula i-VERUCH, ifuna impendulo yasemkhosini kwaye umanyano olufanayo luya kukhawuleza. Asifanelanga ukuba silindele ukuba iinkokheli zaseTshayina zisabele kulwakhiwo lwe-AUKUS ngohlobo lwazo olufanayo? Okwangoku, urhulumente waseTshayina isithethi Ucebise ukuba amahlakani e-AUKUS "kufuneka ashenxise isimo sabo sengqondo soMlo obandayo" kwaye "bangazakhi izithintelo ezijolise okanye ezenzakalisa umdla wabantu besithathu." Ukunyuka kwamajoni amaTshayina kutshanje kokuzivocavoca kufutshane neTaiwan kunokuba yinxalenye yempendulo eyongezelelweyo.

Iinkokheli zamaTshayina zinezizathu ezingakumbi zokuthandabuza injongo yoxolo ye-AUKUS enikezwe ukuba umkhosi wase-US sele unayo Sixhenxe iziseko zomkhosi kwi Ostreliya kwaye phantse 300 ngaphezulu isasazeka kwiMpuma yeAsia. Ngokwahlukileyo, i-China ayinaso isiseko esinye kwi-Western Hemisphere okanye naphina kufutshane nemida yase-United States. Yongeza kwenye into: kule minyaka ingama-20 idlulileyo, amahlakani e-AUKUS anerekhodi yokuqalisa iimfazwe ezinobundlongondlongo kunye nokuthatha inxaxheba kolunye ungquzulwano olusuka eAfghanistan, Iraq, naseLibya ukuya e-Yemen, eSomalia nasePhilippines, phakathi kwezinye iindawo. E China Imfazwe yokugqibela Ngaphaya kwemida yayo yayineVietnam inyanga enye ngo-1979. (Ngokufutshane, ukungqubana okubulalayo kwenzeka neVietnam ngo-1988 nase-India ngo-2020.)

Imfazwe yeTrumps

Ngokurhoxisa imikhosi yase-US e-Afghanistan, ulawulo lwe-Biden lwaqala ngokususa ilizwe kumgaqo-nkqubo wenkulungwane yamashumi amabini ananye weemfazwe ezingapheliyo. Umongameli, nangona kunjalo, ngoku ubonakala ezimisele ukuba kwicala labo kwiCongress, kwimigaqo-nkqubo ephambili yezangaphandle "Blob," nakumajelo eendaba ngengozi ukunyusa umoya Isoyikiso somkhosi wase-China kunye nokubiza impendulo yasemkhosini kumandla akhulayo ehlabathi. Ukuphathwa gwenxa kobudlelwane kurhulumente wase-France ngomnye umqondiso wokuba, ngaphandle kwezithembiso zangaphambili, ulawulo lwe-Biden alunikeli ngqalelo kwaphela kwi-diplomacy kwaye lubuyela kumgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle ochazwe ngamalungiselelo emfazwe, uhlahlo-lwabiwo mali lomkhosi, kunye ne-macho bluster yomkhosi.

Ngenxa yeminyaka engama-20 yemfazwe eyintlekele eyalandela emva kokubhengezwa kolawulo lukaGeorge W.Bush "lweMfazwe yeHlabathi eyoyikekayo" kunye nokuhlasela kwayo iAfghanistan ngo-2001, leliphi ishishini iWashington elakha umanyano lomkhosi omtsha eAsia? Akufanelekanga ukuba ulawulo lweBiden lube njalo imanyano yokwakha zinikezelwe ukulwa nokufudumala kwehlabathi, ubhubhane, indlala nezinye iimfuno ezingxamisekileyo zabantu? Leliphi ishishini iinkokeli ezintathu zabamhlophe zamazwe amathathu anabantu abamhlophe abazama ukulawula loo mmandla ngemikhosi yasemkhosini?

Ngelixa iinkokheli ze ezinye Amazwe apho amkele i-AUKUS, amahlakani amathathu atyikitye ubuhlanga, ukuphinda-phinda, ubukoloniyali beAnglo Alliance ngokungabandakanyi amanye amazwe aseAsia kwiklabhu yabo emhlophe yonke. Ukuthiya i-China njengeyona nto kujoliswe kuyo kunye nokwanda kweMfazwe ebandayo-thina-ngokuchasene nabo ukuvutha Sele ixhaphakile ucalucalulo oluchasene neTshayina kunye nolwa-Asiya e-United States nakwilizwe jikelele. I-Belligerent, edla ngokubhekisa emfazweni ngokuchasene ne-China, enxulunyaniswa nowayesakuba nguMongameli uDonald Trump kunye namanye amaRiphabhlikhi asekunene, iye yamkelwa ngolawulo lwe-Biden kunye nabanye babaDemokhrasi. “Inegalelo ngokuthe ngqo ekunyukeni kobundlobongela obuchasene ne-Asiya kwilizwe liphela,” bhala Iingcali zaseAsia uChristine Ahn, iTerry Park, kunye noKathleen Richards.

Iqela le "Quad" elingamiselwanga kangako ukuba iWashington ilungiselele e-Asiya, kwakhona kubandakanya i-Australia kunye ne-India ne-Japan, ayingcono kwaye sele isiba ngaphezulu kugxilwe kwezomkhosi Umanyano olwa neTshayina. Amanye amazwe kommandla ubonakalisile ukuba "bakhathazeke kakhulu kukuqhubeka kwezigqatso kunye nokuthelekelelwa kwamandla" apho, njengoko Urhulumente wase-Indonesia Utshilo ngesivumelwano sangaphantsi kolwandle. Ziphantse zathi cwaka kwaye kunzima ukuzibona, ezo nqanawa zizixhobo eziyingozi ezenzelwe ukubetha elinye ilizwe ngaphandle kwesilumkiso. Ukufunyanwa kwe-Australia kwangaphambili kwimingcipheko ukunyuka ugqatso lweengingqi zengingqi kwaye iphakamisa imibuzo ephazamisayo malunga neenjongo zeenkokheli zase-Australia kunye ne-US.

Ngaphaya kwe-Indonesia, abantu kwihlabathi liphela kufuneka babe oxhalabileyo malunga nentengiso yaseMelika yeenkwili zasemanzini eziqhutywa yinyukliya. Isivumelwano sijongela phantsi iinzame zokunqanda ukusasazeka kwezixhobo zenyukliya njengoko ikhuthaza i ukwanda Itekhnoloji yenyukliya kunye nenqanaba lezixhobo zityebise kakhulu i-uranium, eya kuthi i-US okanye oorhulumente base-Bhritane bayidinge ukubonelela e-Australia ukubasa i-subs. Isivumelwano sikwabonelela ngomzekelo wokuvumela amanye amazwe angengawo enyukliya njengeJapan ukuqhubela phambili uphuhliso lwezixhobo zenyukliya phantsi kwesitayile sokwakha izibonelelo zabo zenyukliya. Yintoni emisa i-China okanye i-Russia ngoku bathengise i-submarines yabo enezixhobo zenyukliya kunye ne-uranium yezixhobo e-Iran, eVenezuela, okanye kulo naliphi na ilizwe?

Ngubani oLwela iAsia?

Abanye baya kubanga ukuba i-United States kufuneka ilwe namandla akhulayo omkhosi wase China, rhoqo ixilongo ngamajelo eendaba aseMelika. Ngokwandayo, intatheli, oochwephesha kunye nabapolitiki apha baye babonisa ngokungakhathali ukubonakaliswa okulahlekisayo kwamandla omkhosi wase China. Enjalo ukubamba sele ibhaluni yohlahlo-lwabiwo mali lomkhosi kweli lizwe, ngelixa liphembelela ukhuphiswano lwezixhobo kunye nokunyusa uxinzelelo, kanye ngexesha loMlo obandayo wokuqala. Ngokuphazamisayo, ngokweBhunga laseChicago lakutsha nje leMicimbi yeHlabathi survey, uninzi e-US ngoku kubonakala ngathi bayakholelwa-nangona kunjalo ngokungeyonyani- ukuba umkhosi wase-China ulingana okanye mkhulu kunowo wase-United States. Ngapha koko, amandla ethu emkhosini ayodlula i-China, ngokulula ayithelekisi ukuya kwiSoviet Union endala.

Urhulumente wase-China uwomelezile amandla akhe emkhosini kule minyaka idlulileyo ngokunyusa inkcitho, ukuphuhlisa izixhobo eziphambili, kunye nokwakha uqikelelo 15 ukuba 27 ubukhulu becala iziseko zomkhosi ezincinci kunye nezikhululo zeradar kwiziqithi ezenziwe ngabantu kuLwandle lwase China lwase China. Nangona kunjalo, i-US uhlahlo-lwabiwo mali lomkhosi ihlala ubuncinci amaxesha amathathu ubukhulu bobalingane bayo baseTshayina (kwaye ingaphezulu kobude beMfazwe ebandayo). Yongeza kuhlahlo-lwabiwo mali lomkhosi e-Australia, eJapan, eSouth Korea, eTaiwan, kunye namanye amahlakani e-NATO afana ne-Great Britain kunye nokungangqinelani okuye ku-XNUMX ukuya kwelinye. Phakathi kokuphantse I-750 zasezantsi zaseMzantsi phesheya, phantse li-300 are sasazwe ngaphesheya kwe-Mpuma ye-Asiya kunye ne-Pacific kunye nezinye ezininzi zikwezinye iindawo zase-Asiya. Umkhosi waseTshayina kwelinye icala unawo Sibhozo iziseko zaphesheya (Sixhenxe kwiiLwandle i-Spratley Islands kunye ne Nye eDjibouti eAfrika), kunye neziseko eziseTibet. I-US izixhobo zenyukliya iqulethe malunga ne-5,800 yeentloko zemfazwe xa kuthelekiswa nama-320 kwivenkile yamaTshayina. Umkhosi wase-US une-68 Iinkwili ezisebenzisa amandla enyukliya, umkhosi waseTshayina 10.

Ngokuchasene noko kuye kwakhokelela ekubeni bakholelwe, i-China ayisiyongxaki yomkhosi e-United States. Akukho bungqina bokuba urhulumente wakhe unoluvo olukude lokusoyikisa, makungabikho namnye ohlasela i-US uqobo. Khumbula, i-China yagqibela ukulwa ngaphandle kwemida yayo ngo-1979. ichazwe ngokufanelekileyo.

Ukusukela uMongameli Oka-Obama "pivot ukuya eAsia, ”Umkhosi wase-US uzibandakanye neminyaka yokwakha isiseko esitsha, uqeqesho lomkhosi olunoburharha, kunye nokubonisa umkhosi emkhosini. Oku kukhuthaze urhulumente wase-China ukuba azakhele ezakhe izixhobo zomkhosi. Ngokukodwa kwiinyanga nje ezidlulileyo, umkhosi waseTshayina uye wazibandakanya ekuvuseleleni ngakumbi ukuzivocavoca kufutshane neTaiwan, nangona ama-fearmongers kwakhona ukumela kakubi nokuzibaxa izinto zisisongelo ngokwenene. Ukunikezelwa kwezicwangciso zikaBiden zokunyusa abo babengaphambi kwakhe emkhosini e-Asiya, akukho mntu unokumangaliswa ukuba iBeijing ibhengeza impendulo yomkhosi kwaye ilandela umanyano olufana ne-AUKUS. Ukuba kunjalo, umhlaba uza kuphinda utshixelwe kumlo onamacala amabini afana noMlo obandayo onokuthi ubonakalise ukuba nzima ukukhulula.

Ngaphandle kokuba iWashington neBeijing banciphise ukungavisisani, iimbali-mlando zexesha elizayo zinokubona i-AUKUS ingafani nje kuphela nemanyano yexesha elibandayo lemfazwe, kodwa kwi-1882 Triple Alliance phakathi kweJamani, i-Austria-Hungary ne-Italiya. Esi sivumelwano sakhuthaza iFrance, i-Bhritane ne-Russia ukuba zenze i-Triple Entente yazo, yona kunye ukwanda kobuzwe kunye nokhuphiswano lwezoqoqosho, uncede ukukhokela IYurophu kwiMfazwe Yehlabathi I (eyathi yona yazala iMfazwe yesibini yeHlabathi, eyayizala iMfazwe Yomlomo).

Ukuphepha iMfazwe ebandayo eNtsha?

Ulawulo lweBiden kunye ne-United States kufuneka wenze ngcono kunokuvuselela ubuchule benkulungwane yeshumi elinesithoba kunye nexesha leMfazwe ebandayo. Endaweni yokuqhubela phambili ukhuphiswano lweengalo zengingqi ngeziseko ezingaphezulu kunye nophuhliso lwezixhobo e-Australia, amagosa ase-US anokunceda ukunciphisa ukungavisisani phakathi kweTaiwan nelizwekazi lase China, ngelixa besebenzela ukusombulula iimbambano zomhlaba kuLwandle lwase China lwase China. Ekuvukeni kweMfazwe yase-Afghanistan, uMongameli Biden wayenokuzibophelela e-United States kumgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle wezopolitiko, ukwakha uxolo, kunye nokuchasa emfazweni kunokuba kubekho ukungqubana okungapheliyo kunye nokulungiselela okufanayo. Iinyanga ezili-18 zokuqala ze-AUKUS ixesha lokubonisana inika ithuba lokutshintsha ikhosi.

Uvoto lwamva nje lubonisa ukuba ezo ntshukumo ziya kuduma. Ngaphezu kokuphindaphindeka kathathu e-US angathanda ukubona ukwanda, endaweni yokuhla, kuthethathethwano lobambiswano kwihlabathi, ngokwe-non-profit Isiseko seQela le-Eurasia. Uninzi lophando lungathanda ukubona ukuthunyelwa kwamagosa phesheya phesheya. Kabini baninzi abafuna ukunciphisa uhlahlo-lwabiwo mali lomkhosi njengoko bafuna ukulonyusa.

Umhlaba wasinda ngokulambisa le Imfazwe Yomlomo yentsusa, okwakunjalo nantoni na ngaphandle kokubanda yezigidi zabantu abaphila okanye abafayo kwiimfazwe zelo xesha eAfrika, eLatin America naseAsia. Ngaba singabeka emngciphekweni enye inguqulelo efanayo, ngeli xesha kunokwenzeka neRussia kunye ne China? Ngaba sifuna umdyarho weengalo kunye nokukhuphisana komkhosi okwakha okuya kuguqula izigidi zeedola ngaphezulu kokucinezela iimfuno zabantu ngelixa ukugcwalisa ibhokisi labavelisi beengalo? Ngaba ngenene sifuna ukubeka emngciphekweni ukuqala ukungqubana kwezomkhosi phakathi kweMelika kunye ne China, ngengozi okanye ngenye indlela, enokuthi ngokulula iphume kulawulo kwaye ibe sishushu, mhlawumbi inyukliya, imfazwe apho ukufa nentshabalalo kule minyaka ingama-20 idlulileyo "yeemfazwe ezingunaphakade" ingajongeka incinci xa ithelekiswa.

Le ngcinga iyodwa kufuneka ipholise. Le ngcinga iyodwa inokwanela ukumisa enye iMfazwe ebandayo ngaphambi kokuba ihambe kakhulu.

I-copyright 2021 uDavid Vine

landela TomDispatch on Twitter uze usijoyine Facebook. Jonga ezona ncwadi zintsha zeDispatch, inoveli entsha kaJohn Feffer, IiNgoma(owokugqibela kuthotho lwakhe lwe-Splinterlands), inoveli kaBeverly Gologorsky Wonke umzimba unebali, Kunye noTom Engelhardt Uhlanga olungagqitywanga yimfazwe, Kunye noAlfred McCoy Kwimithunzi yeAmerican Century: Ukunyuka kunye Nokwehla kwamandla ehlabathi ase-US kunye noJohn Dower I-American Century enobundlobongela: Imfazwe kunye noloyiko Ukususela kwiMfazwe yesibini yeHlabathi.