NguAlison Broinowski, Arena, Julayi 7, 2022
Imfazwe e-Ukraine ayiphumelelanga nto kwaye ayilungele nabani na. Abo banoxanduva lohlaselo ziinkokeli zaseRussia nezaseMelika eziye zayivumela ukuba yenzeke: UMongameli uPutin owayalela ukuba 'umkhosi okhethekileyo usebenze' ngoFebruwari, kunye noMongameli uBiden kunye nabangaphambi kwakhe abawuxhokonxileyo. Ukusukela ngo-2014, i-Ukraine ibe yindawo apho i-United States ibilwela ukongama neRussia. Abaphumeleleyo beSoviet kunye naseMelika kwiMfazwe yesibini yeHlabathi, amahlakani ngelo xesha kodwa iintshaba ukusukela ngo-1947, bobabini bafuna ukuba izizwe zabo zibe 'zinkulu kwakhona'. Zizibeka ngaphezu kwemithetho yamazwe ngamazwe, iinkokeli zaseMerika nezaseRashiya zenze abantu baseUkraine baba ziimbovane, bezinyathela njengoko iindlovu zisilwa.
Imfazwe ukuya kwi-Ukraine yokugqibela?
Umsebenzi okhethekileyo womkhosi waseRashiya, owasungulwa nge-24 kaFebruwari 2022, ngokukhawuleza wajika waba luhlaselo, kunye neendleko ezinzima kumacala omabini. Esikhundleni sokuhlala iintsuku ezintathu okanye ezine kwaye uvalelwe eDonbas, iye yaba yimfazwe enzima kwenye indawo. Kodwa yayinokuphetshwa. Kwi-Minsk Accords kwi-2014 kunye ne-2015, ukulungelelaniswa kokuphelisa ungquzulwano eDonbas kwacetywayo, kwaye kwiingxoxo zoxolo e-Istanbul ngasekupheleni kuka-Matshi 2022 iRashiya yavuma ukurhoxisa imikhosi yayo eKyiv nakwezinye izixeko. Kwesi siphakamiso, i-Ukraine iya kuba ngathathi hlangothi, ingeyiyo yenyukliya kwaye izimele, kunye neziqinisekiso zamazwe ngamazwe zeso simo. Bekungayi kubakho umkhosi wamazwe angaphandle eUkraine, kwaye umgaqo-siseko waseUkraine uya kulungiswa ukuze uvumele ukuzimela kweDonetsk neLuhansk. ICrimea yayiza kuzimela ngokusisigxina eUkraine. Ikhululekile ukujoyina i-EU, iUkraine iya kuzibophelela ukuba ingaze ijoyine i-NATO.
Kodwa ukuphela kwemfazwe ayisiyiyo into eyayifunwa nguMongameli uBiden: iUnited States kunye namahlakani ayo e-NATO, wathi, baya kuqhubeka nokuxhasa iUkraine '.kungekuphela nje kwinyanga ezayo, kwinyanga elandelayo, kodwa kwintsalela yalo nyaka uphela'. Kwaye kunyaka ozayo kwakhona, kuya kubonakala, ukuba yiloo nto utshintsho lolawulo eRashiya luthatha. I-Biden yayingafuni imfazwe ebanzi kodwa ende, ehlala ide ibhukuqwe uPutin. Kwi Matshi 2022 uxelele i-summit ye-NATO, i-EU kunye ne-G7 amazwe ukuba azenzele 'umlo omde ozayo'.[1]
'Yimfazwe yommeli kunye neRashiya, nokuba sithi okanye akunjalo', uLeon Panetta avunywa ngoMatshi 2022. UMlawuli weCIA ka-Obama kunye noNobhala wezoKhuselo kamva wabongoza ukuba inkxaso yezomkhosi yase-US inikwe i-Ukraine ngokwenza ukuthanda kweMelika. Wongeze wathi, 'Idiplomasia ayihambi ndawo ngaphandle kokuba sinamandla, ngaphandle kokuba abantu baseUkraine banamandla, kwaye indlela ofumana ngayo amandla, ngokunyanisekileyo, ukungena nokubulala amaRashiya. Yiloo nto abantu baseUkraine'-hayi amaMelika-'kufuneka bayenze'.
Ukubandezeleka okumasikizi okubekelwe abantu kwiindawo ezininzi zaseUkraine kubizwe ngokuba yimbubhiso kaBiden kunye noMongameli Zelensky. Nokuba eli gama lichanekile okanye alichanekanga, ukuhlasela lulwaphulo-mthetho lwemfazwe, njengokuhlasela komkhosi.[2] Kodwa ukuba imfazwe ngommeli iyaqhubeka, ityala lifanele lihlolwe ngocoselelo-ingxaki ziphezulu. Umfelandawonye wase-US wawunetyala lolwaphulo-mthetho omabini ngexesha lemfazwe yase-Iraq. Ngokuhambelana nemfazwe yangaphambili yobundlobongela, ngaphandle kophando lwangoku lweNkundla yoLwaphulo-mthetho yaMazwe ngaMazwe, naluphi na utshutshiso lweenkokeli zase-United States, iRashiya okanye i-Ukraine akunakwenzeka ukuba luphumelele, kuba akukho namnye owamkeleyo i-Rome Statute kwaye ngoko akukho namnye kubo ovumayo ukuba inkundla iphumelele. ulawulo.[3]
Indlela entsha yemfazwe
Kwelinye icala, imfazwe ibonakala iqhelekile: Abantu baseRussia nabaseUkraine bemba imisele kwaye balwa ngemipu, iibhombu, imijukujelwa kunye neetanki. Sifunda ngamajoni aseUkraine asebenzisa iidrones eziziivenkile zokuzilibazisa kunye neebhayisekile ezine, kwaye echola iinjengele zaseRussia ngemipu ye-sniper. Kwelinye icala, iUnited States kunye namahlakani ayo abonelela iUkraine ngezixhobo zobugcisa obuphezulu, ubukrelekrele kunye namandla okusebenza kwe-cyber. IRashiya ijongana nabathengi baseMelika eUkraine, kodwa okwangoku silwa nabo ngesandla esinye sisemva—eso sinokuzisa intshabalalo yenyukliya.
Izixhobo zekhemikhali kunye nezebhayoloji zikwangumxube. Kodwa liliphi icala elinokuzisebenzisa? Ukususela ubuncinane ngo-2005 iUnited States neUkraine ziye zahlala ukusebenzisana kuphando lwezixhobo zekhemikhali, nabanye umdla zoshishino ebandakanyekayo ngoku iqinisekisiweyo ezinxulumene noHunter Biden. Kwanangaphambi kohlaselo lwaseRussia, uMongameli uBiden walumkisa ngelithi iMoscow inokuba ilungiselela ukusebenzisa izixhobo zekhemikhali eUkraine. Isihloko esinye seendaba ze-NBC sivume ngokuphandle, 'I-US isebenzisa i-intel ukulwa imfazwe neRashiya, nangona i-intel ingekho rock solid'.[4] Embindini ka-Matshi, uVictoria Nuland, uNobhala weSebe lezoPolitiko wase-US kunye nomxhasi osebenzayo we-2014 Maidan coup ngokuchasene norhulumente wase-Azarov oxhaswa yiRashiya, uqaphele ukuba 'I-Ukraine inamaziko ophando lwebhayoloji' kwaye ivakalise inkxalabo yase-US yokuba 'izixhobo zophando' zinokuwela ezandleni zaseRussia. Zaziyintoni ezo zinto, akazange atsho.
Zombini iRussia kunye neTshayina zakhalaza e-United States ngo-2021 malunga ne-US efumana inkxaso-mali kwiilebhu zemichiza kunye nebhayoloji yemfazwe kwimida yaseRussia. Ukusukela ubuncinci i-2015, xa u-Obama eluvala uphando olunjalo, iUnited States imisele izixhobo zebhayoloji kwiindawo ezazisakuba yiSoviet kufutshane nemida yaseRussia neTshayina, kubandakanya neGeorgia, apho ukuvuza ngo-2018 kwaxelwa ukuba kubangele ukufa kwabantu abangamashumi asixhenxe. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba izixhobo zekhemikhali zisetyenziswa eUkraine, iRussia iya kuba netyala. Unobhala-Jikelele we-NATO uJens Stoltenberg walumkisa kwangoko ukuba ukusetyenziswa kweRashiya kwezixhobo zekhemikhali okanye zebhayoloji 'kuya kutshintsha ngokusisiseko ubume bongquzulwano'. Ekuqaleni kuka-Epreli, uZelensky wathi wayesaba ukuba iRashiya iya kusebenzisa izixhobo zekhemikhali, ngelixa iReuters ikhankanya 'iingxelo ezingaqinisekanga' kumajelo eendaba e-Ukraine yee-chemical agents ezichithwa eMariupol kwi-drone-umthombo wabo I-Azov Brigade yase-Ukraine ene-extremist. Kucacile ukuba kukho inkqubo yeendaba yoluvo olulukhuni phambi kwenyani.
Imfazwe yolwazi
Siye sabona saza sava nje iqhezu loko kwenzekayo kumlo waseUkraine. Ngoku, ikhamera ye-iPhone zizinto ze-asethi kunye nesixhobo, njengoko kusenziwa ngomfanekiso wedijithali. 'I-Deepfakes' inokwenza umntu kwiscreen abonakale ngathi uthetha izinto angakhange azithethe. Emva kokuba uZelensky waba ibonwa ngokucacileyo iyalela ukunikezela, ubuqhophololo babhencwa ngokukhawuleza. Kodwa ngaba amaRussia akwenza oku ukuze ameme ukuba anikezele, okanye ngaba abantu baseUkraine bayisebenzisa ukubhenca amaqhinga aseRashiya? Ngubani owaziyo ukuba yinyani?
Kule mfazwe intsha, oorhulumente balwela ukulawula ibali. IRashiya ivala i-Instagram; I-China ivala uGoogle. Owayesakuba nguMphathiswa wezoNxibelelwano eOstreliya uPaul Fletcher uxelela amaqonga eendaba ezentlalo ukuba avale yonke imixholo evela kwimithombo yeendaba yaseRussia. I-United States ivala i-RA, inkonzo yeendaba yesiNgesi yaseMoscow, kunye ne-Twitter (pre-Musk) ngokuthobela irhoxisa ii-akhawunti zeentatheli ezizimeleyo. UYouTube uyazicima iividiyo eziphikisayo malunga nolwaphulo-mthetho lwemfazwe yaseRussia eBucha eboniswe nguMaxar. Kodwa qaphela ukuba iYouTube yeyakwaGoogle, a Ikontraka yePentagon esebenzisana neearhente zobuntlola zase-US, kwaye uMaxar ungumnini kaGoogle Earth, owakhe imifanekiso evela eUkraine iyathandabuza. I-RA, i-TASS kunye ne-Al-Jazeera zibika imisebenzi ye-Azov brigades, ngelixa i-CNN kunye ne-BBC ibhekisela kwi-Chechen conscripts kunye ne-Wagner Group ye-mercenaries yaseRashiya esebenzayo e-Ukraine. Izilungiso kwiingxelo ezingathembekanga zimbalwa. Isihloko kwi The Sydney Morning Herald nge-13 ka-Epreli ka-2022 ifundeka, 'amabango eendaba zobuxoki' zaseRussia aziyonyani, zitsho iingcali zolwaphulo-mthetho lwase-Australia'.
Ngomhla wama-24 kuMatshi ka-2022, abathunywa abali-141 kwiNdibano Jikelele yeZizwe eziManyeneyo bavotela isigqibo esibambe iRussia inoxanduva lokujongana nentlekele yobuntu nokucela ukuba kupheliswe imfazwe. Phantse onke amalungu e-G20 avotele ukuthanda kwakhe, ebonisa amagqabaza eendaba kunye noluvo loluntu kumazwe abo. Abathunywa abahlanu baye bavotela ngokuchasene nayo, kwaye amashumi amathathu anesibhozo akavumanga, kubandakanywa iChina, i-Indiya, i-Indonesia kunye nawo onke amanye amazwe e-ASEAN ngaphandle kweSingapore. Akukho sininzi selizwe lamaSilamsi esisixhasileyo isigqibo; kananjalo noSirayeli, apho inkumbulo yokubulawa kwabantu abaphantse babe ngama-34,000 eBabi Yar kufuphi neKyiv ngoSeptemba 1941 ngumkhosi waseJamani ingacimekiyo. Emva kokwabelana ngokubandezeleka kweRussia kwiMfazwe yesibini yeHlabathi, u-Israyeli wala ukuxhasa isisombululo sase-US kwiBhunga lezoKhuseleko le-UN nge-25 kaFebruwari 2022, eyasilelayo.
Hayi ukusukela kuhlaselo lwase-Iraq lwe-2003 imbono yehlabathi iye yahluka kakhulu. Hayi ukusukela ngeMfazwe yoMlomo ukuba izizwe ezininzi zichasene neRussia. Ngasekupheleni kuka-Matshi, bekugxilwe eBucha, emantla eKyiv, apho iingxelo ezoyikisayo zokubulawa kwabantu zacebisa ukuba amaRussia, ukuba ayengabulali, ubuncinci. I-counternarratives yavela ngokukhawuleza kumajelo asekuhlaleni, ezinye zivaliwe ngokukhawuleza. Ezinye iziganeko ezothusayo zenzekile, kodwa sinokuqiniseka njani ukuba ezinye azizange ziboniswe? Imifanekiso ephindaphindwayo ejongiwe yeethoyi ezigqwethiweyo zilele ngokucocekileyo phezu komonakalo wabonakala umrhanelwa kwabo baqheleneyo nomsebenzi we-European Helmets'eSyria. EMariupol, iqonga lemidlalo yeqonga elaliphantsi kwabemi basekuhlaleni laqhushumba, kwaye isibhedlele sababeleki satshatyalaliswa. Imijukujelwa kuthiwa yadutyulwa kwisikhululo sikaloliwe eKramatorsk apho izihlwele zazizama ukubaleka. Nangona imithombo yeendaba yaseNtshona yazamkela ngokungagxeki iingxelo zaseUkraine zityhola iRussia ngalo lonke olu hlaselo, ezinye iintatheli ezizimeleyo ziye zaphakamisa amathandabuzo anzulu. Abanye baye bathi Ukuqhunyiswa kwebhombu yethiyetha yayisisiganeko seflegi yobuxoki yaseUkraine kwaye isibhedlele sakhutshelwa ngaphandle kwaye sahlala yiAzov Brigade ngaphambi kokuba iRussia iyihlasele, kwaye imijukujelwa emibini yaseKramatorsk yayiyi-Ukrainian echazwayo, yagxothwa kumhlaba waseUkraine.
EMoscow, imfazwe yolwazi ibonakala ngathi ilahlekile. Inqanaba losasazo lukamabonwakude kunye nenkcazo yemithombo yeendaba ziye zaphumelela kwezo ntliziyo kunye neengqondo zaseNtshona ezazithandabuza okanye zichasa ukungenelela kwe-US ngexesha leemfazwe zaseVietnam nase-Iraq. Kwakhona, sifanele silumke. Ungalibali ukuba i-United States iyavuyisana nayo ngokuqhuba umsebenzi wolawulo womyalezo wobuchwephesha, uvelisa 'Iipropaganda ezintsonkothileyo ezijolise ekuvuseleleni inkxaso yoluntu kunye namagosa'. I-American National Endowment for Democracy ixhasa ngemali ulwimi lwesiNgesi oludumileyo Kyiv Independent, Iingxelo zabo ze-pro-Ukrainian-ezinye zivela kwi-Azov Brigade-zithunyelwa ngokungathandabuzekiyo ngamaziko afana ne-CNN, i-Fox News kunye ne-SBS. Iinzame zamazwe ngamazwe ezingazange zibonwe ngaphambili zikhokelwa 'yi-arhente yobudlelwane boluntu yaseBritane', i-PR-Network, kunye 'ne-arhente yobuntlola yabantu', i-UK- kunye ne-US exhaswa ngemali yi-Bellingcat. Izizwe ezisebenzisanayo ziphumelele, uMlawuli weCIA uWilliam Burns ngokuphandle ngqinela nge-3 Matshi, 'ekuboniseni ihlabathi liphela ukuba oku kucwangciswe kwangaphambili kunye nobundlongondlongo obungabhekiswanga'.
Kodwa yintoni injongo yaseMelika? Ipropaganda yemfazwe ihlala idemoni utshaba, kodwa ipropaganda yaseMelika ebonisa uPutin ivakala iqhelekile kwiimfazwe zangaphambili ezikhokelwa yi-US zokutshintsha kolawulo. U-Biden ubize uPutin 'njengonosilarha' 'ongenakuhlala esemandleni', nangona uNobhala welizwe uBlinken kunye no-Olaf Scholz we-NATO wakhaba ngokukhawuleza ukuba i-United States kunye ne-NATO bafuna utshintsho lolawulo eRashiya. Ethetha ngerekhodi kumkhosi waseMelika ePoland nge-25 kaMatshi, uBiden waphinda watyibilika, esithi 'xa ulapho [eUkraine]', ngelixa umcebisi wangaphambili weDemocrat ULeon Panetta wabongoza, 'Kufuneka siqhubeke neenzame zemfazwe. Lo ngumdlalo wamandla. UPutin uyawaqonda amandla; akayiqondi ncam idiplomacy…'.
Amajelo aseNtshona aqhubela phambili oku kugwetywa kweRashiya kunye noPutin, abaye baba needemon ngaphezu kweminyaka elishumi. Kwabo bebesandula ukuchasa 'ukucima inkcubeko' kunye 'neenyaniso ezibubuxoki', umanyano omtsha wokuthand' izwe unokubonakala ukhulula. Ixhasa abantu baseUkraine ababandezelekileyo, igxeka iRussia, kwaye ithethelela i-United States kunye ne-NATO kulo naluphi na uxanduva.
Izilumkiso zazibhalwe phantsi
IUkraine yaba yiriphabliki yeSoviet ngowe-1922 yaye, nayo yonke iSoviet Union, yathwaxwa yiHolodomor, iNdlala Enkulu eyabangelwa kukuhlanganiswa ngenkani kwezolimo apho kwafa izigidi zabantu baseUkraine, ukususela ngowe-1932 ukusa kowe-1933. IUkraine yahlala kwiSoviet Union. de le yokugqibela yawa ngo-1991, xa yayizimele kwaye ingathathi cala. Kwakuqikelelwa ukuba uloyiso lwaseMelika kunye nokuthotywa kweSoviet ekugqibeleni kuya kuvelisa ungquzulwano phakathi kweenkokeli ezimbini ezinje ngeBiden kunye noPutin.
Kwi-1991, i-United States kunye ne-United Kingdom baphinda oko amagosa aseMerika axelele uMongameli Gorbachev ngo-1990: ukuba i-NATO yayiza kwandisa 'i-intshi enye' ukuya eMpuma. Kodwa iye, ithatha iBaltic States kunye nePoland-amazwe alishumi elinesine ewonke. Ukuzibamba kunye nediplomacy yasebenza ngokufutshane kwi-1994, xa iMemorandam yaseBudapest yalela iRussian Federation, iUnited States kunye ne-United Kingdom ukuba igrogrise okanye isebenzise umkhosi okanye unyanzeliso lwezoqoqosho ngokuchasene ne-Ukraine, Belarus okanye Kazakhstan 'ngaphandle kokuzikhusela okanye ngenye indlela ngokuhambelana ne i Isivumelwano soMbutho weZizwe eziManyeneyo'. Ngenxa yezinye izivumelwano, phakathi kowe-1993 nowe-1996 iiriphabliki ezintathu ezazisakuba yiSoviet zaziyeke izixhobo zazo zenyukliya, nto leyo iUkraine esenokuzisola ngayo ngoku neBelarus esenokurhoxa.
Ngowe-1996 iUnited States yavakalisa ukuzimisela kwayo ukwandisa iNATO, yaye iUkraine neGeorgia zanikwa ithuba lokufuna ubulungu. Ngo-2003-05, 'iinguqu zemibala' ezichasene neRussia zenzeka eGeorgia, eKyrgyzstan naseUkraine, kwaye ezi zamva zibonwa njenge. elona bhaso likhulu kwiMfazwe Yomlomo entsha. UPutin waphinda waqhankqalaza ngokuchasene nokwandiswa kwe-NATO kwaye wachasa ubulungu baseUkraine, into enokwenzeka ukuba amazwe aseNtshona agcine ephila. Kwi-2007, iingcali ezingamashumi amahlanu ezibalaseleyo zomgaqo-nkqubo wangaphandle zabhalela uMongameli uBill Clinton ekuchaseni ukwanda kwe-NATO, beyibiza.'impazamo yomgaqo-nkqubo wobungakanani bembali' Phakathi kwabo kwakukho uGeorge Kennan, unozakuzaku waseMelika kunye nengcali yaseRussia, owayigxekayo 'eyona mpazamo ibulalayo yomgaqo-nkqubo waseMelika kulo lonke ixesha lasemva kweMfazwe ebandayo'. Nangona kunjalo, ngo-Aprili 2008 i-NATO, ngokomyalelo kaMongameli uGeorge W. Bush, yabiza i-Ukraine neGeorgia ukuba ijoyine. Esazi ukuba ukutsalela iUkraine kwi-orbit yaseNtshona kungonakalisa uPutin ekhaya nakwamanye amazwe, uMongameli wase-Ukraine uViktor Yanukovych waseUkraine. wala ukutyikitya isiVumelwano soMbutho kunye ne-EU.
Izilumkiso zaqhubeka. Ngo-2014, uHenry Kissinger waxoxa ukuba ukuba ne-Ukraine kwi-NATO kuya kuyenza indawo yemidlalo yeqonga kungquzulwano lwaseMpuma-ntshona. Anthony Blinken, ngoko kwiSebe lika-Obama likaRhulumente, wacebisa abaphulaphuli baseBerlin ngokuchasene ne-US echasayo iRussia eUkraine. 'Ukuba udlala kwindawo yasemkhosini e-Ukraine, udlala ngamandla eRashiya, kuba iRashiya ikufuphi nomnyango', watsho. 'Nantoni na esiyenzileyo njengamazwe ngokwenkxaso yomkhosi e-Ukraine inokuthi ifaniswe kwaye iphindwe kabini kwaye iphindwe kathathu kwaye iphindwe kane yiRussia.'
Kodwa ngoFebruwari 2014 eUnited States waxhasa ubhukuqo lukaMaidan loo nto yamgxotha uYanukovych. I urhulumente omtsha waseUkraine Waluvala ulwimi lwesiRashiya waza wawahlonela amaNazi amandulo nanamhlanje, phezu kwako nje ukubulawa kukaBabi Yar nokubulawa kwabantu abangama-1941 30,000 eOdessa ngowe-2014, ingakumbi amaYuda. Abavukeli baseDonetsk naseLuhansk, bexhaswa yiRashiya, bahlaselwa entwasahlobo ka-XNUMX kumsebenzi 'wokulwa nabanqolobi' ngurhulumente waseKyiv, exhaswa ngabaqeqeshi bomkhosi base-US kunye nezixhobo zase-US. I-plebiscite, okanye 'i-status referendum', yaba yabanjwa eCrimea, yaye ngenxa yenkxaso engama-97 ekhulwini yabantu ababezile, iRashiya yaphinda yawuthimba losingasiqithi.
Iinzame zokuphelisa ungquzulwano lweOrganization for Security and Cooperation in Europe zavelisa izivumelwano ezibini zaseMinsk zowama-2014 nowama-2015. Nangona zazithembisa ukuzilawula kummandla waseDonbas, ukulwa kwaqhubeka apho. UZelensky wayechasa inkcaso eboshwe eRashiya kunye ne izivumelwano zoxolo wonyulwa ukuba aziphumeze. Kumjikelo wokugqibela weengxoxo zeMinsk, ezaphela kwiiveki nje ezimbini ngaphambi kokuhlasela kweRussia ngoFebruwari, 'umqobo ophambili', IWashington Post umbiko, 'yayiyinkcaso kaKyiv ukuthetha-thethana nabaqhekeki be-pro-Russian'. Njengoko iintetho zaziyeka, i isikhundla wavuma, 'akucaci ukuba iUnited States ibeka uxinzelelo olungakanani kwi-Ukraine ukufikelela kwisivumelwano neRashiya'.
Umongameli u-Obama wayebambekile ekuxhobiseni iUkraine ngokuchasene neRussia, kwaye yayinguTrump, owangena ezihlangwini zakhe, owayecingelwa ukuba nguRussophile, ngubani owenza njalo. Ngo-Matshi 2021, uZelensky wayalela ukuba kubuyiselwe iCrimea kwaye wathumela amajoni kumda, esebenzisa iidrones ngokuchasene nezivumelwano zaseMinsk. Ngo-Agasti, iWashington neKiev batyikitya i US-Ukraine iSikhokelo soKhuselo lobuChule, ethembisa ngenkxaso yase-US yaseUkraine 'ukugcina ingqibelelo yommandla welizwe, inkqubela-phambili ngokubhekiselele kwintsebenziswano ye-NATO, kunye nokukhuthaza ukhuseleko lommandla'. Ubudlelwane obusondeleyo phakathi koluntu lwabo lwezobuntlola kwezokhuselo lwanikezelwa 'ukuxhasa ucwangciso lomkhosi kunye nemisebenzi yokhuselo'. Kwiinyanga ezimbini kamva, i-US-Ukrainian UMqulu woBudlelwane obuCwangcisiweyo ibhengeze inkxaso yaseMelika 'yeminqweno yaseUkraine yokujoyina i-NATO' kunye newonga layo 'njenge-NATO Yamathuba Olomeleziweyo uMlingane', ebonelela iUkraine ngokuthunyelwa kwezixhobo ze-NATO ezongeziweyo kunye nokubonelela ngokudityaniswa.[5]
I-United States ifuna amahlakani e-NATO njengamazwe akhuselekileyo ngokuchasene neRussia, kodwa 'intsebenziswano' iyasilela ekukhuseleni iUkraine. Ngokulinganayo, iRussia ifuna amazwe akhuselekileyo phakathi kwayo kunye neNATO. Ukuziphindezela kwizivumelwano zase-US-Ukraine, uPutin ngoDisemba ka-2021 wathi iRussia ne-Ukraine ayisengabo 'bantu banye'. Nge-17 kaFebruwari 2022, uBiden waxela kwangaphambili ukuba iRussia yayiza kuhlasela iUkraine kwiintsuku ezimbalwa ezilandelayo. Ukudubula kweDonbas yaseUkraine kuye kwaqina. Kwiintsuku ezine kamva, uPutin wachaza ukuzimela kweDonbas, apho iRashiya yayinayo kude kube ngoko unelungelo lokuzimela okanye lokuzilawula. 'IMfazwe Enkulu yeLizwe Loyise' yaqala kwiintsuku ezimbini kamva.
Ngaba iUkraine iya kusindiswa?
Ngezandla zozibini zibotshelelwe ngasemva emqolo, iUnited States kunye namahlakani ayo e-NATO banezixhobo kuphela kunye nezohlwayo ezinokunikezela. Kodwa ukuvinjelwa kwempahla evela eRashiya, ukuvala ukufikelela kweRashiya kwi-investment phesheya, kunye nokuvala ukufikelela kweRashiya kwi-SWIFT inkqubo yokutshintshiselana ngebhanki akuyi kusindisa i-Ukraine: ngosuku lokuqala emva kokuhlasela. UBiden wade wavuma ukuba 'Izohlwayo azize zithintele', kwaye isithethi sika-Boris Johnson satsho phandle ukuba izohlwayo 'kukuthoba ulawulo lukaPutin'. Kodwa izohlwayo azivelisanga ziphumo ezinqwenelekayo zaseMelika eCuba, eMntla Korea, eChina, e-Iran, eSyria, eVenezuela okanye kwenye indawo. Endaweni yokopha ekungenisweni, iRussia iya kuphumelela imfazwe, kuba uPutin kufuneka enjenjalo. Kodwa ukuba i-NATO iyijoyine, konke ukubheja kucinyiwe.
IMoscow kusenokwenzeka ukuba ifumane ulawulo olusisigxina lweMariupol, iDonetsk neLuhansk, kwaye ifumane ibhulorho yomhlaba eya eCrimea kunye nommandla osempuma woMlambo iDneiper apho ubuninzi bomhlaba wokulima waseUkraine kunye nemithombo yamandla ikhona. I-Gulf yase-Odessa kunye noLwandle lwase-Azov lunokugcinwa kweoli kunye negesi, ezinokuqhubeka zithunyelwa eYurophu, ezifunayo. Ukuthunyelwa kwengqolowa eTshayina kuya kuqhubeka. I-Ukraine eseleyo, eyalelwe ubulungu be-NATO, inokuba lityala lebhaskithi yezoqoqosho. Amazwe adinga ukuthunyelwa kwe-Russian kumazwe angaphandle aphepha iidola zase-US kunye nokurhweba ngee-rouble. Ityala likawonke-wonke laseRashiya li-18 ekhulwini, lingaphantsi kakhulu kunelase-United States, i-Australia kunye nezinye iintlanga ezininzi. Ngaphandle kohlwayo, kuphela i-embargo yamandla epheleleyo eya kuchaphazela kakhulu iRashiya, kwaye ayinakwenzeka loo nto.
Abantu base-Australia bathatha kuphela ii-akhawunti zeendaba eziqhelekileyo. Uninzi luyothuswa kukubandezeleka okwenziwa ngabantu baseUkraine, kwaye Iipesenti ezingama-81 zifuna ukuba iOstreliya ixhase iUkraine ngoncedo loluntu, izixhobo zomkhosi kunye nezohlwayo. Abaphulaphuli be studio yee-ABC's Q + A inkqubo ngomhla wesi-3 Matshi kakhulu yamkelwe presenter uStan Grant ukugxothwa umfana wabuza malunga ukwaphulwa Minsk Accords. Kodwa abo bachonga iUkraine-ihlakani lase-US elilahlayo-kufuneka bathathele ingqalelo ukufana kwayo ne-Australia.
Umongameli uZelensky walumkisa ipalamente yase-Australia nge-31 kaMatshi ngezisongelo ezijongene ne-Australia, ngokuthe ngqo evela e-China. Umyalezo wakhe wawusithi asinakuthembela kwi-United States ukuba ithumele imikhosi okanye inqwelomoya ukuze ikhusele iOstreliya ngokungaphaya kweUkraine. Ubonakala eqonda ukuba i-Ukraine yomonakalo wokubambisana kwiqhinga elide laseBritani kunye ne-United States, elinenjongo yokutshintsha ulawulo. Uyazi ukuba injongo yokusekwa kwe-NATO yayikukuchasa iSoviet Union. Oorhulumente base-Australia abaphumelelayo baye bafuna ukuqinisekiswa okubhaliweyo-okuthi i-ANZUS ayiboneleli-ukuba i-United States iya kukhusela i-Australia. Kodwa umyalezo ucacile. Ilizwe lakho lelakho ukuba ulikhusele, itsho iUnited States. Umphathi waBasebenzi boMkhosi wase-US kutshanje yalatha kwizifundo zaseUkraine kumahlakani aseMelika, bebuza, 'Ngaba bakulungele ukufela ilizwe labo?' Wakhankanya iTaiwan, kodwa kusenokwenzeka ukuba wayethetha ngeOstreliya. Endaweni yokunikela ingqalelo, ngoko ke iNkulumbuso uScott Morrison walinganisa intetho yoomongameli baseMelika edlulileyo malunga nobukumkani obungendawo kunye ne-axis yobubi, kunye ne-rhetoric malunga 'nomgca obomvu' kunye 'ne-arc of autocracy'.
Okwenzekayo e-Ukraine kuya kubonisa i-Australia indlela ethembekileyo ngayo amahlakani ethu aseMelika. Kufuneka yenze abaphathiswa bethu abalindele imfazwe kunye neChina bacinge malunga nokuba ngubani oya kusikhusela kwaye ngubani oya kuphumelela.
[1] IWashington izimisele, Amaxesha eAsia gqityiwe, 'ukutshabalalisa urhulumente kaPutin, ukuba kuyimfuneko ngokwandisa imfazwe yaseUkraine ixesha elide ngokwaneleyo ukopha iRashiya yomile'.
[2] Ulwaphulo-mthetho lobundlobongela okanye ulwaphulo-mthetho oluchasene noxolo kukucwangcisa, ukuqaliswa, okanye ukuphunyezwa kwesenzo esikhulu nesibi sobundlobongela kusetyenziswa umkhosi wamajoni karhulumente. Olu lwaphulo-mthetho phantsi kwe-ICC lwaqala ukusebenza kwi-2017 (uBen Saul, 'Ukubulawa, ukuhlushwa: i-Australia kufuneka ityhale ukuba ibambe iRashiya kwi-Akhawunti', ISydney Morning Herald, 7 Epreli 2022.
[3] UDon Rothwell, 'Ukubamba uPutin kwi-Akhawunti yezoLwaphulo-mthetho zeMfazwe', Umntu waseOstreliya, 6 Aprili 2022.
[4] UKen Dilanian, uCourtney Kube, uCarol E. Lee kunye noDan De Luce, 6 April 2022; UCaitlin Johnstone, 10 Epreli 2022.
[5] UAron Iqabane, 'Ukukhuthaza utshintsho lolawulo eRussia, iBiden ibhengeza iinjongo zase-US eUkraine', 29 March 2022. I-US yavuma ukubonelela ngemijukujelwa yoluhlu oluphakathi, ukunika I-Ukraine inamandla okubetha kwiindawo zeenqwelomoya zaseRashiya.
