By UMel Gurtov
Njengoko bekulindeleke ngokubanzi, iNkundla eSisigxina yoLawulo phantsi kweNgqungquthela yeZizwe eziManyeneyo kuMthetho woLwandle (i-UNCLOS) yagweba ngoJulayi 12 ngokuxhasa i-suit yasePhilippines ukubhengeza amabango ommandla waseTshayina kuLwandle lwaseMzantsi China (SCS) ngokungekho mthethweni. * Kuyo yonke into, inkundla yafumanisa ukuba amabango aseTshayina—achazwa yinto ebizwa ngokuba “ngumgca wedashi ezisithoba”—kwindawo ebanzi yaselwandle kunye nemithombo yobutyebi engaphantsi kolwandle ayikho mthethweni, yaye ngenxa yoko iphulo layo lokulungisa umhlaba kunye nolwakhiwo eziqithini liyangenelela. kummandla woqoqosho okhethekileyo kwiiPhilippines. Nangona esi sigwebo singazange sinabele kumbandela wolongamo kwiziqithi zeSCS, sayicacisa imbambano yomda. Esi sigwebo sikwafumanise iTshayina inetyala lokonakalisa imeko-bume yaselwandle ngokwakha iziqithi ezenziweyo, ukuphazamisana ngokungekho mthethweni nokuloba kwabantu bakwiiPhilippines kunye nokuhlola ioli, kunye “nokuyenza mandundu” ingxabano neePhilippines ngemisebenzi yayo yokwakha. (Umxholo wesigwebo uku https://www.scribd.com/document/318075282/Permanent-Court-of-Arbitration-PCA-on-the-West-Philippine-Sea-Arbitration#download).
I-China yayimisele impendulo yayo kwiinyanga ezininzi ezidlulileyo. Isebe lezangaphandle libhengeze isigqibo senkundla yolamlo “esingenamsebenzi kwaye asinyanzelwanga.” Isiteyitimenti siphindaphinda amabango olongamo lwaseTshayina kwiziqithi ze-SCS. Yagxininisa ukuba isimo saseTshayina siyahambelana nomthetho wamazwe ngamazwe, umbono ongafane ulingane nokukhanyela igunya lenkundla yolamlo, singasathethi ke ngesigqibo sayo. I-China izimisele ukuthetha-thethana ngokuthe ngqo kunye namaqela anomdla kunye nokulungiswa ngokuthula kweengxabano, isitatimende sithi; kodwa “ngokuphathelele kwimiba yomhlaba kunye neengxabano zokucandwa kwemida yaselwandle, i-China ayamkeli naziphi na iindlela zokusonjululwa kweengxabano zeqela lesithathu okanye nasiphi na isisombululo esibekwe e-China” (Xinhua, Julayi 12, 2016, “Ingxelo epheleleyo.”)
Lilonke, yayilusuku olubi enkundleni yePeople's Republic. Nangona ithembisa ukungasithobeli esi sigwebo, oku kuthetha ukuba i-China iya kuqhubeka nomkhosi iziqithi ekuphikiswana ngazo kwaye ikhusele "iminqweno yayo ephambili" apho-umkhosi wayo waselwandle ubambe iphulo lokuqala lokudubula umlilo kwi-SCS kusuku olungaphambi kwesigqibo senkundla-indawo ebonakalayo kwibango leTshayina “njengegunya elikhulu elinoxanduva.” Umongameli u-Xi Jinping wayebonise kwi-2014 ukuba i-China kufuneka ibe "nomgaqo-nkqubo wayo wangaphandle wamandla amakhulu kunye neempawu ezikhethekileyo," awabiza ngokuba "zintandathu eziqhubekayo" (liuge jianchi). Le migaqo kucingelwa ukuba iya kudala “uhlobo olutsha lobudlelwane bezizwe ngezizwe,” kwaye iquke iingcamango ezinje “intsebenziswano kunye nokuphumelela,” ilizwi eliphambili lamazwe asakhasayo, nokukhusela ubulungisa bamazwe ngamazwe. Kodwa ezi zintandathu ziqhubeka zibandakanya "ungaze siwalahle amalungelo ethu asemthethweni kunye nezinto esinomdla kuzo" (zhengdang quanyi), nto leyo edla ngokuba sisingxengxezo sokwenza izinto ezichasa ngokuthe ngqo uxanduva lwezizwe ngezizwe. (Bona: http://world.people.com.cn/n/2014/1201/c1002-26128130.html.)
Iinkokeli zase China ngokuqinisekileyo bezilindele ukuba ukusayina kunye nokuqinisekisa i-UNCLOS kuya kuba luncedo kwilizwe. Iza kubonisa ukuzibophelela kweTshayina kwizivumelwano zamazwe ngamazwe, ibonise intlonipho ye-China kumalungelo aselwandle abanye (ingakumbi abamelwane bayo bakumazantsi-mpuma e-Asia) kunye nokwenza amalungelo ayo abe semthethweni, kwaye iququzelele ukuphononongwa kwemithombo yobutyebi engaphantsi kolwandle. Kodwa izivumelwano azisoloko zisenzeka njengoko bekulindelekile. Ngoku ukuba umthetho ujikile ngokuchasene nawo, amaTshayina ngequbuliso afuna ukungafaneleki inkundla ye-UNCLOS kwaye aphinde atolike injongo yendibano. Ababaninzi oorhulumente ekunokwenzeka ukuba bakuxhase oko kurhoxa.
I-US, nangona ibisoloko ixhasa isikhundla sePhilippines, ayinanto yakuyivuyisa apha. Okokuqala, i-US ayizange isayine okanye iyamkele i-UNCLOS, kwaye ngenxa yoko ikwimeko ebuthathaka yokuxoxisana egameni layo okanye isibheno kumthetho wamazwe ngamazwe kunye "nenkqubo esekelwe kwimithetho" xa oorhulumente bephula nayiphi na (efana nokuhluthwa kweRashiya eCrimea). Okwesibini, njengeTshayina, i-US isoloko ithatha imbono emfiliba yomthetho wamazwe ngamazwe xa "iminqweno yesizwe" isengozini. Nokuba malunga neNkundla yeHlabathi yoBulungisa okanye nayiphi na enye inkundla yamazwe ngamazwe, i-US ayizange yamkele imbono yolawulo olusisinyanzelo, kwaye enyanisweni ibisoloko iziphatha ngokungathi kunjalo. kumbe ukusuka kwimithetho kunye nemigaqo. Ke, njengeTshayina, uxanduva lwase-US njengamandla amakhulu alusoloko lubandakanya intlonipho kunye nokuthotyelwa kwezivumelwano kunye nezivumelwano zamazwe ngamazwe, imibutho yezomthetho yamazwe ngamazwe (efana neNkundla yoLwaphulo-mthetho lwamazwe ngamazwe), okanye imimiselo yomthetho yamazwe ngamazwe (efana naleyo malunga nokungangeneleli, ukubulawa kwabantu ngohlanga. , kunye nentuthumbo). (Bona: www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2014/05/america-and-international-lawZombini i-US ne-China, ngelizwi nje, zithetha intetho kodwa zingahambi-ngaphandle kokuba umthetho usebenzela umgaqo-nkqubo wawo.
Kwaye eso sesona sifundo sokwenyani apha—ukungakhathali kwamagunya amakhulu, indlela yabo yokuzenzela ngokwabo kumthetho wamazwe ngamazwe, kunye nokunqongophala kwamandla amaziko ezomthetho ukunyanzela ukuziphatha kwawo. Mhlawumbi kwimeko ye-SCS i-China kunye ne-Philippines, ngoku ephantsi komongameli omtsha, baya kufumana indlela yabo yokubuyela kwitafile yothethathethwano kwaye benze isivumelwano esithintela umba wolongamo oluhlala lunzima. (Jonga iposti yam yokugqibela ngalo mbandela: https://mgurtov.wordpress.com/2016/06/11/post-119-too-close-for-comfort-the-dangerous-us-china-maritime-dispute/) Oko kuya kulunga; kodwa ibingayi kujongana nengxaki esisiseko yokuba indlela yokuziphatha ethobela umthetho inokukhuthazwa kwaye inyanzeliswe kwihlabathi elihlala linesiphithiphithi.
*Inkundla, eqale ukusebenza kwityala leSCS ngo-2013, iqulunqwe ngabagwebi abavela eGhana, Poland, Netherlands, France, Germany.
