Ngaba i-US inokuzilungelelanisa ngengqiqo kwiLizwe leeMpahla ezininzi?

Umzobo nguJerzy Wasiukiewicz

NguMedea Benjamin noNicolas JS Davies, World BEYOND War, NgoMeyi 4, 2023

Kwincwadi yakhe yowe-1987 ethi The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, umbhali-mbali uPaul Kennedy waqinisekisa abantu baseMerika ukuba ukuwohloka kweUnited States eyayijamelene nako emva kwenkulungwane yolawulo lwezizwe ngezizwe “kwakunxulumene noko kwakungagqibelelanga, yaye ke ngoko kungokwemvelo ngokugqibeleleyo; kwanokuba ekuphela kwesisongelo esinzulu kwizilangazelelo zokwenene zeUnited States sinokubangelwa kukusilela ukuqhelana ngokusengqiqweni nolungelelwaniso olutsha lwehlabathi.”

Ekubeni uKennedy ebhale loo mazwi, siye sabona ukuphela kweMfazwe ebandayo, ukuvela koxolo kwe-China njengegunya lehlabathi elikhokelayo, kunye nokunyuka kwe-Global South eyoyikekayo. Kodwa iUnited States iye yasilela ngokwenene “ukuhlengahlengisa ngengqiqo kulungelelwaniso olutsha lwehlabathi,” isebenzisa umkhosi kunye nokunyanzeliswa ngokuphandle. ukuphulwa ye Charter UN kumzamo ongaphumeleliyo wokufumana ihegemony yehlabathi ehlala ixesha elide.

Kennedy waphawula ukuba amandla omkhosi alandela amandla ezoqoqosho. Amagunya ezoqoqosho akhulayo aphuhlisa amandla omkhosi ukuze ahlanganise kwaye akhusele imidla yawo yoqoqosho eyandisiweyo. Kodwa xa amandla amakhulu kwezoqoqosho encipha, ukusetyenziswa komkhosi ukuzama ukolula imini elangeni kukhokelela kuphela kungquzulwano olungenakoyiswa, njengoko amagunya obukoloniyali aseYurophu afunda ngokukhawuleza emva kweMfazwe yesibini yeHlabathi, nanjengoko abantu baseMelika befunda namhlanje.

Ngelixa iinkokeli zase-US ziye ukulahlekelwa ziimfazwe kwaye uzama ukubambelela kulawulo lwamazwe ngamazwe, ihlabathi elitsha le-multipolar liye lavela. Ngaphandle kwentlekele yakutshanje yokuhlasela kweRashiya eUkraine kunye nentlungu yenye imfazwe engapheliyo, iipleyiti zetectonic zembali zitshintshela kulungelelwaniso olutsha olunika ithemba ngekamva loluntu. Nalu uphuhliso oluninzi olufanele ukujongwa:

Ukunciphisa idola kurhwebo lwehlabathi

Kangangamashumi eminyaka, idola yaseMelika ibingukumkani ongenakuphikiswa wemali yehlabathi. Kodwa iChina, iRashiya, iIndiya, iBrazil, iSaudi Arabia kunye nezinye iintlanga zithatha amanyathelo okuqhuba urhwebo olungakumbi kwiimali zabo, okanye kwi-yuan yaseTshayina.

Izohlwayo ezingekho mthethweni, ezicalanye zase-US ngokuchasene neqela lamazwe kwihlabathi liphela ziphakamise uloyiko lokuba ukubamba iidola ezinkulu kushiya amazwe esesichengeni sokunyanzelwa yimali yase-US. Amazwe amaninzi sele etshintsha kancinci kancinci oovimba bawo bemali yangaphandle, ukusuka kwi-70% kwihlabathi jikelele egcinwe kwiidola ngo-1999 ukuya kuma-65% ngo-2016 ukuya. ngama-58% kuphela yi 2022.

Kuba alikho elinye ilizwe elinenzuzo ye "ecosystem" eye yaphuhliswa malunga nedola kwinkulungwane edlulileyo, ulwahlulo yinkqubo ecothayo, kodwa imfazwe yaseUkraine iye yanceda ukukhawulezisa inguqu. Ngomhla we-17 ku-Epreli, ngo-2023, unobhala kaNondyebo wase-US uJanet Yellen walumkisa ukuba izohlwayo zase-US ngokuchasene neRussia zisemngciphekweni. ukujongela phantsi indima yedola njengehlabathi jikelele Zigcinwe lwemali.

Kwaye kudliwanondlebe lweFox News, uSenator weRiphabhlikhi yasekunene uMarco Rubio wakhala ukuba, kwisithuba seminyaka emihlanu, iUnited States isenokungakwazi ukusebenzisa idola ukuxhaphaza amanye amazwe ngenxa yokuba “kuya kubakho amazwe amaninzi asebenzisa imali ngaphandle kwedola kangangokuba asiyi kuba nako ukuwahlawulisa.”

I-GDP ye-BRICS igqwesa iG7's

Xa kubalwa ngokusekwe kwi-Purchasing Power Parity, i-GDP yamazwe e-BRICS (iBrazil, iRashiya, i-Indiya, i-China kunye noMzantsi Afrika) ngoku eliphezulu kunaleyo yeG7 (eUnited States, eUnited Kingdom, eKhanada, eFransi, eJamani, eItali, eJapan). Amazwe e-BRICS, athatha ngaphezu kwama-40% abemi behlabathi bebonke, avelisa i-31.5% yeziphumo zoqoqosho lwehlabathi, xa kuthelekiswa ne-30.7% ye-G7, kwaye isabelo esikhulayo se-BRICS semveliso yehlabathi kulindeleke ukuba siqhubele phambili ukodlula i-G7 kwiminyaka ezayo.

Ngebhanti kunye neNdlela U kuqala, I-China ityale imali kwintsalela yayo enkulu yotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle kwiziseko ezitsha zezothutho kulo lonke elase-Eurasia ukungenisa ngokukhawuleza imathiriyeli ekrwada kunye nokuthumela iimpahla eziveliswayo ngaphandle, nokwakha ubudlelwane borhwebo obukhulayo namazwe amaninzi.

Ngoku ukukhula kweGlobal South kuya kuba kukhuliswa yiBhanki yoPhuhliso eNtsha (i-NDB), ekwaziwa njengeBhanki ye-BRICS, phantsi komongameli wayo omtsha u-Dilma Rousseff, owayengumongameli wase-Brazil.

U-Rousseff uncedise ekusekeni iBhanki ye-BRICS ngowama-2015 njengenye indlela yenkxaso-mali yophuhliso, emva kokuba iBhanki yeHlabathi ekhokelwe lilizwe laseNtshona kunye ne-IMF ziye zavalelisa amazwe ahlwempuzekileyo kumatyala aphinda-phindiweyo, ubucukubhede kunye neenkqubo zokuthengisa izinto zabucala kangangamashumi eminyaka. Ngokwahlukileyo, i-NDB igxile ekupheliseni intlupheko kunye nokwakha iziseko zophuhliso ukuze kuxhaswe “ikamva elibandakanyayo, elizinzileyo nelizinzileyo leplanethi yethu.” I-NDB ixhotyiselwe ngamandla, nge-100 leebhiliyoni zeerandi ukuxhasa iiprojekthi zayo, ngaphezu kwepotfoliyo yeBhanki yeHlabathi yeebhiliyoni ezingama-82 zeerandi.

Intshukumo eya “kukuzimela kobuchule” kweYurophu

Phezulu, imfazwe yaseUkraine izise i-United States kunye neYurophu ngokusondelelana ngokwe-geostrategically kunangaphambili, kodwa oku kusenokungabi njalo ixesha elide. Emva kotyelelo lukaMongameli waseFransi uMacron kutshanje eTshayina, uxelele iintatheli kwinqwelomoya yakhe ukuba iYurophu mayingavumeli i-United States ukuba iyitsalele emfazweni neTshayina, ukuba iYurophu ayisiyonto “ephantsi” kwe-United States, kwaye kufuneka ithi “ukuzimela ngobuchule” kwiqonga lehlabathi. Izikhalo ezothusayo zabulisa uMacron macala omabini eAtlantiki xa udliwano-ndlebe lwapapashwa.

Kodwa uMongameli weBhunga laseYurophu uCharles Michel, owayesakuba yinkulumbuso yaseBelgium, ngokukhawuleza weza kwicala likaMacron, ukugxininisa ukuba iManyano yaseYurophu ayinako “ngokumfamekisa, ukulandela ngokucwangcisiweyo isikhundla sase-United States.” UMichel uqinisekisile kudliwanondlebe ukuba izimvo zikaMacron zibonisa umbono okhulayo phakathi kweenkokeli ze-EU, kwaye "bambalwa ngokwenene bacinga njengo-Emmanuel Macron."

Ukunyuka koorhulumente abaqhubela phambili kwiLatin America

Lo nyaka uphawula isikhumbuzo seminyaka engama-200 ye-Monroe Doctrine, esebenze njengokhuselo lwe-US yolawulo lweLatin America kunye neCaribbean. Kodwa kule mihla, amazwe alo mmandla ala ukumatsha evaleleke kwiimfuno zase-US. Lo mmandla uphela uyala ukuvalwa kwe-US eCuba, kunye nokungabandakanywa kukaBiden eCuba, eVenezuela naseNicaragua kwiNgqungquthela yakhe yaseMelika ka-2022 yacenga ezinye iinkokeli ezininzi ukuba zingahambi okanye zithumele amagosa amancinci kuphela, kwaye ubukhulu becala. umgwebo indibano.

Ngoloyiso olumangalisayo kunye nokuthandwa kuka-Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador eMexico, uGustavo Petro eColombia, kunye no-Ignacio Lula da Silva eBrazil, oorhulumente abanenkqubela ngoku banamandla amakhulu. Baqinisa iqumrhu lengingqi i-CELAC (uLuntu lwamazwe aseLatin America kunye neCaribbean) njengenye indlela yoMbutho olawulwa yi-US waseMelika.

Ukunciphisa ukuthembela kwidola yaseMelika, uqoqosho olukhulu lwaseMzantsi Melika, iArgentina neBrazil, zibhengeze izicwangciso ukudala imali eqhelekileyo enokuthi kamva yamkelwe ngamanye amalungu e-Mercosur - ibhlog enkulu yorhwebo yaseMzantsi Melika. Ngelixa impembelelo yase-US iyancipha, i-China iyakhula, kunye norhwebo ukwanda ukusuka kwi-18 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2002 ukuya phantse kwiibhiliyoni ezingama-449 zeedola ngo-2021. I-China ngoku liqabane eliphambili lezorhwebo laseBrazil, eChile, ePeru nase-Uruguay, kunye neBrazil khuliswe ukubakho kwesivumelwano sorhwebo lwasimahla phakathi kweTshayina neMercosur.

Uxolo phakathi kweIran neSaudi Arabia

Enye yeendawo ezibubuxoki zomgaqo-nkqubo wamazwe angaphandle wase-US kukuba ukhuphiswano lwengingqi kwimimandla efana noMbindi Mpuma lubekwe ematyeni, kwaye i-United States kufuneka ke ngoko yenze umanyano kunye nemikhosi ebizwa ngokuba yi "moderate" (pro-Western) ngokuchasene "neradical" ngakumbi. (ezizimeleyo) enye. Oku kusebenze njengesizathu sokuba iMelika itsibe ebhedini kunye noozwilakhe abanjengoShah waseIran, uMohammed bin Salman waseSaudi Arabia kunye nothotho loorhulumente basemkhosini eYiputa.

Ngoku iChina, ngoncedo oluvela eIraq, iye kuphunyezwa into engazange izame neUnited States. Endaweni yokuqhuba i-Iran kunye ne-Saudi Arabia ukuba ityhefe wonke lo mmandla ngeemfazwe eziphenjelelwa bubuhlanga kunye nentiyo yobuhlanga, njengoko i-United States yenza, i-China ne-Iraq zibadibanise ukuze babuyisele ubudlelwane bezozakuzo ngenjongo yoxolo nempumelelo.

Ukunyangwa kolu qhekeko kunyuse ithemba loxolo oluhlala luhleli kumazwe aliqela apho aba khuphiswano babini bebebandakanyeka, aquka iYemen, iSyria, iLebhanon nakude njengakwiNtshona Afrika. Ikwabeka i-China kwimephu njengomlamli kwinqanaba lehlabathi, kunye namagosa aseTshayina ngoku anikezela ukulamla phakathi kwe-Ukraine neRashiya, kunye naphakathi kwe-Israel nePalestina.

ISaudi Arabia kunye neSyria zibuyisele ubudlelwane bezozakuzo, kunye nabaphathiswa bangaphandle baseSaudi kunye neSyria tyelela amakomkhulu omnye komnye okokuqala ukususela Saudi Arabia kunye namahlakani ayo Western ixhaswa Amaqela anxulumene ne-al-Qaeda ukuzama ukubhukuqa uMongameli uAssad ngo-2011.

Ku umhlangano eJordan ngoMeyi 1st, abaphathiswa bangaphandle baseJordani, eYiputa, eIraq naseSaudi Arabia bavuma ukunceda iSiriya ukubuyisela ingqibelelo yendawo, kwaye imikhosi yaseTurkey ne-US kufuneka ihambe. ISyria inokumenywa kwingqungquthela ye-Arab League nge-19 kaMeyi, okokuqala ngqa ukusukela ngo-2011.

I-diplomacy yaseTshayina yokubuyisela ubudlelwane phakathi kwe-Iran kunye ne-Saudi Arabia ikholelwa ngokuvula ucango kwezinye iintshukumo zezozakuzo kuMbindi Mpuma nakwilizwe lama-Arabhu. ISaudi Arabia yanceda kuphuma Abantu base-Irani abavela eSudan kwaye, ngaphandle kwenkxaso yabo yangaphambili kubalawuli basemkhosini abatshabalalisa iSudan, iiSaudis zincedisa ukulamla. iintetho zoxolo, kunye ne-UN, i-Arab League, i-African Union kunye namanye amazwe.

Iindlela ezininzi zezozakuzo ezizezinye kwimfazwe yase-US

Isindululo sikaMongameli uLula waseBrazil sokuba “iklabhu yoxolo” yamazwe aza kunceda ukuthethathethana ngoxolo eUkraine ngumzekelo omtsha wozakuzo ovela kumazwe ahlukahlukeneyo. Kukho ngokucacileyo i-geostrategic element kwezi ntshukumo, ukubonisa ihlabathi ukuba ezinye izizwe zinokuzisa uxolo kunye nenkqubela kumazwe nakwimimandla apho i-United States izise imfazwe kuphela, isiphithiphithi kunye nokungazinzi.

Ngelixa i-United States ijikeleza i-saber yayo ejikeleze iTaiwan kwaye ibonakalisa iChina njengesoyikiso kwihlabathi, iChina kunye nabahlobo bayo bazama ukubonisa ukuba banokubonelela ngobunkokeli obahlukileyo. Njengelizwe loMzantsi weHlabathi eliphakamise abantu balo ephuma ebuhlwempu, I-China inikezela ngamava kunye nentsebenziswano ukunceda abanye ukuba benze okufanayo, indlela eyahluke kakhulu kwimodeli ye-neocolonial ye-paternalistic kunye ne-coercive ye-US kunye namandla aseNtshona agcine amazwe amaninzi ebanjwe kwintlupheko kunye namatyala amashumi eminyaka.

Esi sisiqhamo sehlabathi eliziintlambululo ezininzi ebezibizelwa yi-China kunye nabanye. I-China iphendula ngobuchule kweyona nto ifunwa lihlabathi, iluxolo, kwaye ibonisa ukuba inokunceda njani. Oku ngokuqinisekileyo kuya kuphumelela i-China izihlobo ezininzi, kwaye yenze kube nzima ngakumbi kwizopolitiko zase-US ukuthengisa umbono wabo we-China njengesongelo.

Ngoku ekubeni "ulungelelwaniso olutsha lwehlabathi" awayebhekiselele kulo uPaul Kennedy luyakhula, ingcali yezoqoqosho uJeffrey Sachs. unokuthandabuza okukhulu malunga nokukwazi ukulungelelanisa i-US. Njengoko ebelumkisile mva nje, "Ngaphandle kokuba umgaqo-nkqubo wamazwe angaphandle wase-US utshintshiwe ukuze uqonde imfuno yelizwe elinabantu abaninzi, oko kuya kukhokelela kwiimfazwe ezininzi, kwaye mhlawumbi kwiMfazwe yeHlabathi yesiThathu." Ngamazwe kwihlabathi jikelele esakha uthungelwano olutsha lwezorhwebo, uphuhliso kunye nozakuzakuzakuzaku, oluzimeleyo kwiWashington neWall Street, iUnited States isenokungabi nandlela yimbi ngaphandle kokuba ekugqibeleni “ilungelelanise ingqiqo” kucwangco olutsha.

UMedea Benjamin kunye noNicolas JS Davies bangababhali be Imfazwe e-Ukraine: Ukwenza ingqiqo yongquzulwano olungenangqiqo, epapashwe ngabakwa-OR Books ngoNovemba wama-2022.

UMedea uBenjamin ngumseki we CODEPINK yoxolo, kunye nombhali weencwadi ezininzi, kubandakanya Ngaphakathi kwe-Iran: Imbali Yembali kunye nezopolitiko zeRiphabhliki yase-Iran.

UNicolas JS Davies yintatheli ezimeleyo, umphandi nge-CODEPINK kunye nombhali we Igazi ezandleni zethu: Invasion yaseMelika kunye nokuTshatyalaliswa kwe-Iraq.