Ikhredithi yefoto: Iklabhu yoQoqosho yaseNew York
NguMedea Benjamin noNicolas JS Davies, World BEYOND War, UJanuwari 3, 2023
Unobhala-Jikelele we-NATO uJens Stoltenberg, owaziwayo ngenkxaso yakhe enyanisekileyo e-Ukraine, kutshanje watyhila uloyiko lwakhe olukhulu kobu busika kudliwanondlebe lukamabonakude kwingingqi yakhe yaseNorway: ukuba umlo waseUkraine unokuphuma kulawulo kwaye ube yimfazwe enkulu phakathi kweNATO neRussia. “Ukuba izinto zingahambi kakuhle,” walumkisa ngelizolileyo, “zinokonakala kakhulu.”
Yayikukwamkelwa okunqabileyo komntu obandakanyekayo emfazweni, kwaye ibonakalisa i-dichotomy kwiingxelo zakutsha nje phakathi kweenkokeli zezopolitiko zase-US kunye ne-NATO kwelinye icala kunye namagosa omkhosi kwelinye. Iinkokeli zabemi zisabonakala zizibophelele ekulweni imfazwe ende, evulekileyo e-Ukraine, ngelixa iinkokeli zomkhosi, ezifana noSihlalo waseMelika weeNtloko zaBasebenzi uMark Milley, bathethile kwaye babongoza i-Ukraine ukuba "bamba umzuzu” kwiintetho zoxolo.
U-Admiral odla umhlala-phantsi uMichael Mullen, owayesakuba nguSihlalo weeNtloko zaBasebenzi, wathetha kuqala, mhlawumbi evavanya amanzi eMilley, xelela Iindaba ze-ABC zokuba i-United States kufuneka "yenze konke okusemandleni ethu ukuzama ukuya etafileni ukusombulula le nto."
Amaxesha eAsia umbiko ukuba ezinye iinkokeli zomkhosi we-NATO zabelana ngombono kaMilley wokuba iRussia okanye iUkraine ayinakufezekisa uloyiso oluthe ngqo lomkhosi, ngelixa uvavanyo lomkhosi waseFransi naseJamani lugqiba ukuba isikhundla sothethathethwano esomeleleyo esizuzwe yiUkraine ngeempumelelo zayo zomkhosi zamva nje ziya kuba zethutyana ukuba asilele ukuthobela. Ingcebiso kaMilley.
Ke kutheni iinkokeli zomkhosi zase-US kunye ne-NATO zithetha ngokukhawuleza ukuba zala ukuqhubeka kwendima yazo ephambili kwimfazwe yaseUkraine? Kwaye kutheni bebona ingozi enje ngokusondela ukuba abaphathi babo bezopolitiko bayaphoswa okanye bayayityeshela imiqondiso yabo yokutshintshela kwi-diplomacy?
Iqumrhu leRandi eligunyaziswe yiPentagon isifundo epapashwe ngoDisemba, enesihloko esithi Ukuphendula kuhlaselo lwaseRashiya kwi-NATO Ngexesha leMfazwe yaseUkraine, inika umkhondo wokuba uMilley kunye noogxa bakhe basemkhosini bayifumanisa yoyikisa ngantoni. Uphononongo luvavanya iinketho zase-US zokuphendula kwiimeko ezine apho iRussia ihlasela uluhlu lweethagethi ze-NATO, ukusuka kwisathelayithi yobuntlola yase-US okanye kwindawo yokugcina izixhobo ze-NATO ePoland ukuya kuhlaselo olukhulu lomjukujelwa kwiziseko zomoya ze-NATO kunye namazibuko, kubandakanya iRamstein US Air Base. kunye nezibuko laseRotterdam.
Ezi meko zine zonke ziyingqikelelo kwaye zisekelwe ekunyukeni kweRashiya ngaphaya kwemida yaseUkraine. Kodwa uhlalutyo lwababhali lutyhila ukuba ulunge kangakanani kwaye uyingozi kangakanani umgca phakathi kweempendulo zomkhosi ezilinganiselweyo kunye nomlinganiso wokunyuka kweRussia kunye nokunyuka kokunyuka okunokuthi kuphume kulawulo kwaye kukhokelela kwimfazwe yenyukliya.
Isivakalisi sokugqibela sesigqibo solu hlolisiso sifundeka ngolu hlobo: “Amandla okusetyenziswa kwenyukliya kongezelela ubunzima kusukelo lwaseUnited States lokunqanda ukwanda okungakumbi, usukelo olusenokubonakala lubaluleke ngakumbi emva kohlaselo olulinganiselweyo lwaseRashiya.” Ukanti ezinye iinxalenye zophononongo ziphikisana nokuhla-kwenyuka okanye iimpendulo ezingaphantsi-kunomlinganiso wokunyuka kweRussia, ngokusekwe kwiinkxalabo ezifanayo kunye “nokuthembeka” kwe-US eqhube imijikelo etshabalalisayo kodwa ekugqibeleni ililize yokunyuka eVietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan kunye nezinye ezilahlekileyo. iimfazwe.
Iinkokeli zezopolitiko zase-US zihlala zisoyika ukuba ukuba aziphenduli ngokwaneleyo kwizenzo zotshaba, iintshaba zabo (ngoku ezibandakanya i-China) ziya kugqiba ukuba iintshukumo zabo zomkhosi zinokuchaphazela umgaqo-nkqubo wase-US kwaye zinyanzelise i-United States kunye namahlakani ayo ukuba abuyele. Kodwa ukunyuka okuqhutywa luloyiko olunjalo kuye kwakhokelela kuphela ekoyisweni kwe-US okuqinisekileyo kunye nokuhlazisayo.
E-Ukraine, iinkxalabo zase-US malunga "nokuthembeka" zidibene nesidingo sokubonisa kumahlakani ayo ukuba iSiqendu sesi-5 se-NATO-ethi ukuhlaselwa kwelungu elinye le-NATO kuya kuthathwa njengohlaselo kubo bonke-kukuzibophelela kwamanzi ngokwenene ukubakhusela.
Ngoko umgaqo-nkqubo wase-US e-Ukraine ubanjwe phakathi kwesidingo esihloniphekileyo sokwesabisa iintshaba zayo kunye nokuxhasa amahlakani ayo kwelinye icala, kunye neengozi ezingenakucingelwa zehlabathi zokwenyuka kwelinye. Ukuba iinkokeli zase-US ziyaqhubeka nokwenza njengoko bezisenza kwixesha elidlulileyo, zikhetha ukonyuka ngaphezu kokulahleka “kokuthenjwa,” ziya kuba zidlala ngemfazwe yenyukliya, kwaye ingozi iya kwanda kuphela ngokujija ngakunye kokunyuka kwe-scalatory spiral.
Njengoko ukungabikho “kwesisombululo somkhosi” kuqalisa kancinci kancinci kumajoni asezitulweni zaseWashington kunye namakomkhulu e-NATO, ngokuzolileyo bangena kwizikhundla zoxolelwaniso kwiingxelo zabo zoluntu. Okubaluleke kakhulu, bathatha indawo yokunyanzelisa kwabo kwangaphambili ukuba i-Ukraine kufuneka ibuyiselwe kwimida yayo yangaphambili ye-2014, okuthetha ukubuya kwazo zonke i-Donbas kunye neCrimea, kunye nekhwelo lokuba iRashiya ihoxise kuphela ngaphambi kwe-24 kaFebruwari 2022, izikhundla. IRashiya yayinayo ngaphambili kuvunyelwene kwiingxoxo eTurkey ngoMatshi.
Unobhala welizwe laseMelika uAntony Blinken xelelwe IWall Street Journal ngoDisemba 5 yathi injongo yemfazwe ngoku “kukubuyisela ummandla othatyathwe [eUkraine] ukususela ngomhla wama-24 kaFebruwari.” IWSJ umbiko ukuba “Oonozakuzaku ababini baseYurophu… wathi [uMcebisi weSizwe kwezoKhuseleko wase-US uJake] Sullivan ucebise ukuba iqela likaMnu. Zelenskyy liqalise ukucinga ngeemfuno zalo ezinokwenyani kunye nezinto eziphambili kwiingxoxo, kuquka nokuqwalaselwa kwakhona kweenjongo zayo ezichaziweyo zokuba iUkraine ibuyise iCrimea, eyathi yabanjwa ngo-2014. .”
In omnye Inqaku, iThe Wall Street Journal yacaphula amagosa aseJamani esithi, “akholelwa ukuba akukho ngqiqweni ukulindela ukuba imikhosi yaseRashiya iya kugxothwa ngokupheleleyo kuyo yonke imimandla ethathiweyo,” ngoxa amagosa aseBritani ayechaza esona siseko sincinane sothethathethwano njengokukulungela kweRashiya “ukurhoxa kwizikhundla. yaqala ukusebenza nge-23 kaFebruwari.
Esinye sezenzo zokuqala zikaRishi Sunak njengeNkulumbuso yase-UK ekupheleni kuka-Okthobha yayikukuba uMphathiswa wezoKhuselo uBen Wallace abize uMphathiswa wezoKhuselo waseRussia uSergei Shoigu okokuqala ngqa ukusukela kuhlaselo lwaseRussia ngoFebruwari. UWallace uxelele uShoigu ukuba i-UK iyafuna de-escalate ungquzulwano, utshintsho olubalulekileyo kwimigaqo-nkqubo yalowo wayesakuba yiNkulumbuso u-Boris Johnson kunye no-Liz Truss.Isikhubekiso esikhulu esibambe oonozakuzaku baseNtshona ukusuka kwitafile yoxolo yintetho ebalaseleyo kunye nezikhundla zothethathethwano zikaMongameli Zelenskyy kunye norhulumente waseUkraine, oye wagxininisa ukusukela oko. Epreli ukuba ayizi kuzinza kuyo nayiphi na into emfutshane yolongamo olupheleleyo kuwo wonke i-intshi yommandla iUkraine eyayinawo ngaphambi kowama-2014.
Kodwa eso sikhundla siphezulu sasilutshintsho olumangalisayo kwisikhundla i-Ukraine yasithatha kwiingxoxo zokuphelisa umlilo eTurkey ngoMatshi, xa yavuma ukuyeka umnqweno wayo wokujoyina i-NATO kunye nokungabambeleli iziseko zomkhosi wangaphandle ngokutshintshiselana nokurhoxa kweRussia izikhundla zangaphambi kokuhlasela. Kwezo ntetho, iUkraine yavuma thethwano ikamva Donbas kunye ukuya ukuyeka isigqibo sokugqibela malunga nekamva laseCrimea ukuya kuthi ga kwiminyaka eyi-15.
I-Financial Times yaphula i ibali yaloo 15-point isicwangciso uxolo ngoMatshi 16, kunye Zelenskyy wachaza “isivumelwano sokungathathi cala” kubantu bakhe kwisisasazo sikamabonwakude wesizwe ngoMatshi 27, ethembisa ukusingenisa kuvoto lwesizwe ngaphambi kokuba luqalise ukusebenza.
Kodwa ke iNkulumbuso yase-UK u-Boris Johnson ungenelele nge-9 ka-Epreli ukuze aphelise eso sivumelwano. Uxelele uZelenskyy ukuba i-UK kunye "neNtshona ehlangeneyo" "yayikuyo ixesha elide" kwaye yayiza kubuyisela i-Ukraine ukulwa imfazwe ende, kodwa ayiyi kusayina naziphi na izivumelwano zaseUkraine ezenziwe neRashiya.
Oku kunceda ukucacisa ukuba kutheni uZelenskyy ngoku ukhubekile ngeengcebiso zaseNtshona ukuba kufuneka abuyele etafileni yokuxoxisana. UJohnson uye warhoxa ehlazweni, kodwa washiya uZelenskyy kunye nabantu baseUkraine bejinga kwizithembiso zakhe.
Ngo-Epreli, uJohnson wabanga ukuba uthethela “iNtshona ehlangeneyo,” kodwa yi-United States kuphela eyenze okufanayo esidlangalaleni indawo, Ngelixa Fransi , Jemani kwaye ElamaTaliyane bonke babize uthethathethwano olutsha lokupheliswa komlilo ngoMeyi. Ngoku uJohnson ngokwakhe wenze malunga nobuso, ebhala kwi Op-Ed kwiWall Street Journal ngoDisemba 9 kuphela ukuba “imikhosi yaseRashiya kufuneka iphinde ibuyele kumda we-de facto we-24 kaFebruwari.
UJohnson kunye noBiden benze isiphithiphithi somgaqo-nkqubo waseNtshona eUkraine, bezopolitiko bebambelele kumgaqo-nkqubo wemfazwe engenamiqathango, engapheliyo abacebisi bomkhosi we-NATO bayaliwe ngezona zizathu zivakalayo: ukunqanda ukuphela kweMfazwe yeHlabathi yesiThathu eyathi uBiden ngokwakhe. thembiso ukubaleka.
Iinkokeli zase-US kunye ne-NATO ekugqibeleni zithatha amanyathelo omntwana ukuya kuthethathethwano, kodwa umbuzo obalulekileyo ojongene nehlabathi ngo-2023 ngowokuba ngaba amaqela alwayo aya kufika na kwitafile yothethathethwano ngaphambi kokuba kunyuke isantya siphume singalawuleki.
UMedea Benjamin kunye noNicolas JS Davies bangababhali be Imfazwe e-Ukraine: Ukwenza ingqiqo yongquzulwano olungenangqiqo, epapashwe ngabakwa-OR Books ngoNovemba wama-2022.
UMedea uBenjamin ngumseki we CODEPINK yoxolo, kunye nombhali weencwadi ezininzi, kubandakanya Ngaphakathi kwe-Iran: Imbali Yembali kunye nezopolitiko zeRiphabhliki yase-Iran.
UNicolas JS Davies yintatheli ezimeleyo, umphandi nge-CODEPINK kunye nombhali we Igazi ezandleni zethu: Invasion yaseMelika kunye nokuTshatyalaliswa kwe-Iraq.
