Iphulo lokuNciphisa uMsongelo weNyukliya

NguJohn Lewallen.

Umngcipheko wemfazwe yenyukliya "ngengozi" ebandakanya i-US, i-China kunye neRashiya ngequbuliso yaba nkulu kakhulu xa uMongameli wase-US uDonald Trump "eTweeted" wayeya kwandisa kakhulu imikhosi yenyukliya yase-US, kwaye kamva wathi kumboniso wentetho kamabonwakude ukuba. yamkela ugqatso olutsha lwezixhobo zenyukliya: “Siza kuboyisa ngalo lonke ixesha.”

La magama afana nokuphosa imatshisi kwigumbi elizele ziitoti zegesi ezivuliweyo. Namhlanje i-US ineRussia kunye ne-China erhangqwe ngenani elandayo lezixhobo "zokuqala" ezijolise ekutshabalaliseni iinkqubo zenyukliya zaseRussia kunye neTshayina, kunye nesoyikiso esisemthethweni sokuba i-US inokwenza ugwayimbo lokuqala.

Ukuqinisekisa ukuba abaphathi benyukliya baseTshayina nabaseRussia bayayifumana inqaku, minyaka le i-US Space Command "imidlalo yemfazwe" uqhankqalazo lokuqala olulolo hlobo ngokuchasene neRussia neTshayina, kumzamo ocacileyo wokufumana "inyukliya" phezu kwabo.

Ndilufunde olu buchule lokujongana ngenyukliya lubandakanya iTshayina, iRussia kunye ne-US iminyaka emininzi. Ngokwenene yimfazwe yesoyikiso kunye nesoyikiso esichaseneyo, zombini ukuphumeza "ukuthintela" ekuhlaselweni, kunye "nokunyanzeliswa kwenyukliya" ukunyanzela esinye isizwe ukuba senze okanye singenzi into, ngamanye amaxesha ibizwa ngokuba "yi-nuclear blackmail."

Sele kuyiminyaka engama-71 ukususela ekudutyulweni kwamva nje kwesixhobo senyukliya emfazweni. Kubonakala ngathi kukho ukuqonda jikelele ukuba ukuphepha kuphela kwesicwangciso esiphilileyo semfazwe yenyukliya, nzulu eluntwini kangangokuba ingcali yenyukliya uThomas Schelling uyibize ngokuba "yinto engafanelekanga" ekudubuleni isixhobo senyukliya.

Nangona kunjalo, ukunyuka okungaguqukiyo kwesoyikiso senyukliya yimikhosi yase-US yaseRussia kunye ne-China ukuba yongeze isoyikiso lokunqanda uhlaselo oluchasene nabo, kwaye ithintele i-US ekusebenziseni amandla awongameleyo ukubatyhola. Ezi zizwe zombini zikwenze ngokunempumelelo kakhulu. Zombini iRussia kunye neTshayina zilungele ukuhlasela ilizwe laseMelika ngezixhobo, iimfihlo ezininzi, ezinokutshabalalisa ngokupheleleyo i-US ngoqhushumbo lwenyukliya, kunye/okanye ukutshabalalisa iitshiphusi zekhompyuter kwilizwekazi ngokubanzi ngezixhobo eziphakamileyo zenyukliya ze-electromagnetic pulse.

Abaphathi benyukliya baseRashiya nabaseTshayina bagxile ekuphepheni imfazwe yenyukliya. Ndiyakholelwa ukuba i-US ibilandela ukuzibulala, kunye ne-omnicidal enokwenzeka (itshabalalisa yonke into), isicwangciso esinobundlobongela sokuqala. Kubonakala kungxamisekile ukuphelisa ungquzulwano lwenyukliya yase-US kunye neRussia kunye neTshayina, ngokurhoxisa izixhobo zokuqala zokubetha kwimida yazo kunye nokubhengeza isicwangciso senyukliya sokuthintela kuphela.

Izixhobo zeNyukliya: UMlinganisi Omkhulu

Kumagosa okhuselo aseRashiya naseTshayina anenjongo yokuthintela uhlaselo kumazwe asekhaya, izixhobo zenyukliya zilingana. Nokuba i-US isongela kangakanani kwaye ibajikelezile, bobabini banamandla okumelana nempembelelo eyonakalisayo e-US.

Ukongeza kwimijukujelwa yenyukliya, uninzi olukwinqanawa ezintywilayo, inye kuphela enokutshabalalisa imimandla emikhulu, zombini zilungele ukusebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya ze-electromagnetic pulse ezikumgangatho ophezulu, ezinokutshabalalisa impucuko yekhompyutha kuwo wonke uMntla Merika.

Nabani na ofuna ukuqonda imfazwe yenyukliya angandwendwela iWikipedia kwaye ajonge “Izixhobo zoMbane zeNyukliya eziPhakamileyo.” Abaqulunqi bezixhobo baye bayimfihlo kakhulu kodwa bagxile kakhulu kwizixhobo zenyukliya eziphucula i-electromagnetic pulse. Sinye kuphela kwezi zixhobo, ezinokubekwa kwiisathelayithi ezijikeleza uMhlaba, ezinokukhupha i-electromagnetic pulse eno kutshabalalisa zonke iitshiphusi zekhompyuter ezingakhuselekanga kumgca wokubonwayo. I-China kunye neRashiya bathi bane "super-EMP izixhobo" eziya kuzoyisa zonke iinzame zokukhusela i-computer chips, eyona siseko sempucuko yanamhlanje.

Ukuma kweNyukliya yase-US: Ukusuka “kwiNtshabalaliso eQinisekisiweyo” ukuya kuKhuseleko lweNyukliya

Ngo-1999, iNkongolo yase-US yawisa isigwebo esinye esichaza ukuba ngumgaqo-nkqubo wase-US ukuphuhlisa inkqubo yokukhusela imijukujelwa, kwiinzame zokuthintela uhlaselo lwenyukliya. Eli bali lahamba phantse lingaqatshelwanga e-US, kodwa urhulumente waseTshayina walibiza ngokuba libali lonyaka. AmaTshayina ayesazi ukuba aya kunyanzelwa ukuba aphuhlise izixhobo zokoyisa iinkqubo “zokukhusela imijukujelwa” ukuze agcine isithintelo esithembekileyo kuhlaselo lokuqala lwase-US.

Kangangeminyaka i-US kunye neSoviet Union, kwaye kamva iRussia emva kokuwa kweSoviet Union, yaqaphela iSivumelwano se-Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM). Beqonda ukuba akukho cala linokuthi lifikelele ekukhuseleni imijukujelwa esebenzayo kumawaka amaninzi ezixhobo zenyukliya ababejolise kuzo, bobabini bavumile ukuba bazakuqala kuphela ugqatso lwezixhobo zenyukliya olungento noluyingozi kakhulu ngokuzama ukukhusela imijukujelwa.

UMongameli uReagan waqala umzamo wokwenza inkqubo yokukhusela imijukujelwa, kwaye iyaqhubeka nanamhla, ngokujikeleza okungapheliyo kweRashiya kunye neChina kunye nemijukujelwa yokuqala yamabango ase-US ajoliswe e-Iran naseNyakatho Korea. ISivumelwano se-ABM sirhoxisiwe yi-US, nangona wonke umntu onengqondo enengqondo eqonda ukuba akunakwenzeka ngokwasemzimbeni ukuphuhlisa ukhuselo olusebenzayo ngokuchasene nokuba kuhlaselo lomjukujelwa wenyukliya okanye ugqabhuko oluphezulu lwe-EMP yenyukliya.

Ukunyanzeliswa kweNyukliya: UMlawuli ekunokwenzeka ukuba uphambene

Ngoku uMongameli-onyuliweyo uDonald Trump uye wathumela i-Tweet kwihlabathi ukuba uza kuqalisa umdyarho wezixhobo zenyukliya. Oku kubonakala ngathi liqhinga eliphambeneyo lokuzibulala, elibhengezwe esidlangalaleni ngendlela eyoyikisayo ihlabathi lonke. Luphawu olucacileyo lokuba i-US ijonge ukusebenzisa amandla ayo enyukliya abalaseleyo "ukunyanzeliswa kwenyukliya," ukunyanzela ezinye izizwe ukuba zinikezele kwiimfuno zayo, ngaphandle kwento yokuba abantu base-US kunye nokusingqongileyo ngoku kusemngciphekweni omkhulu wokuhlaselwa yiTshayina. , iRashiya enesixhobo esitshabalalisayo.

Ingcinga yeqhinga leNyukliya liphondo leqela elincinane kakhulu labacwangcisi. Ndiyakholelwa ukuba kungxamisekile ukuba abantu abaninzi bafunde isicwangciso senyukliya, kuba isicwangciso esikhoyo sibonakala siphambene. Imfazwe yenyukliya mhlawumbi sesona sisoyikiso sokusinda esijongene noluntu namhlanje.

Iingcali zobuchule ziyayiqonda into yokuba, ngenxa yokuba ukudutyulwa kwesixhobo senyukliya emfazweni kuyingozi kakhulu kumsebenzisi ngokokude kuthathwe njengophambano lokuzibulala, ukusetyenziswa okusebenzayo kwesoyikiso senyukliya ukunyelisa elinye ilizwe lenyukliya kufuna umphathi wenyukliya ophambene ngokwaneleyo ukuba abeke umngcipheko kwihlabathi liphela. . Ngena uDonald Trump, umphathi wenyukliya odelela ingcebiso yeengcali kunye nokuphosa izoyikiso ezililize nangaphambi kokungena eofisini. Iza kusabela njani iTshayina neRashiya?

Enye yezona nyaniso ziphazamisayo malunga nokujongana nezixhobo zenyukliya “kukusebenzisa okanye ukuphulukana nayo” syndrome. Oko kukuthi, ukuba amandla enyukliya akholelwa ukuba umchasi sele eza kuhlasela, kukho unyanzeliso olukhulu ukuba abethe kuqala ngenyukliya yangaphambili okanye ngolunye ugwayimbo olunokuthi luvale umchasi onokubakho. Ngamafutshane, kuqinisekile ukuba iRussia kunye neTshayina zinemikhosi yazo yenyukliya ephaphileyo.

Okwangoku, i-US kunye neRussia zinezixhobo zenyukliya ezimalunga ne-14,000 ezijolise omnye komnye, uninzi lukwisilumkiso se-hair-trigger. Umngcipheko wemfazwe yenyukliya “ngengozi”, eyandiswa zizixhobo zase-US kunye nezoyikiso zikaTrump, iye yaba mikhulu kangangokuba ayinakuphinda ithathwe ngokuba “ngengozi”, kodwa sisiphumo sokuma kwe-US esoyikisa ngokuphambanayo.

Iqhinga laseTshayina elinomtsalane lezixhobo zenyukliya laziswa bubulumko bobuchule baseTshayina bamandulo, obubekwe nguSun Tsu kwi “The Art of War.” AmaTshayina azama ukufezekisa "ukuthintela okuncinci" ngelixa enezona zixhobo ziphambili zenyukliya kunye nemijukujelwa eyenzelwe ukuphelisa izoyikiso zenyukliya zase-US. Ingozi enkulu yeyokuba ukuma kwe-China okungoyikiyo kunokukhohlisa abaphathi base-US ukuba bacinge ukuba i-US ngoku "inenyukliya" ngaphezulu kwe-China, kwaye inokuqalisa uhlaselo olusebenzayo lwangaphambi kokutshabalalisa imikhosi yase-China yeqhinga lenyukliya. Ndiqinisekile ukuba i-China ibukele i-US yenyukliya ihamba ngokusondeleyo, kwaye ilungiselele iimpendulo zazo zonke iintlobo, kubandakanywa imfazwe ye-cyber.

Ngokubhekiselele kwiQhinga leSixhobo seNyukliya sase-US esiKhuselekileyo nesiCacileyo

Iqhinga langoku lenyukliya eliyingozi ye-US linokuguqulwa ngokulula kwaye ngokukhawuleza libe liqhinga elikhuselekileyo neliphilileyo nguMongameli wase-US eligxile ekunciphiseni isoyikiso semfazwe yenyukliya ne-China okanye iRashiya. Amagama kunye nezenzo zokunciphisa inokwenzeka ngesantya se-Tweet: ukurhoxisa iinkqubo zemijukujelwa yokuqala ukusuka kwimida yazo zombini izizwe, kwaye ubhengeze ukuma kwenyukliya yokuthintela kuphela, ukushiya umzamo wokuzibulala wokufikelela ukhuseleko lomjukujelwa kunye nokusongela kuqala- ugwayimbo.

Kuphela yimfuno edibeneyo evela kubantu abaninzi kunye namaqela ase-US eya kuthi, ndiyakholelwa, isiqhubele kwiqhinga lenyukliya elikhuselekileyo neliphilileyo. Ngoku kukho “iyelenqe lokuthula”: urhulumente wase-US akafuni ukuba uluntu luzazi iingozi zokwenyani zomgaqo-nkqubo wangoku; kunye noluntu, oludiniweyo kumashumi eminyaka yoloyiko lwenyukliya ngexesha “leMfazwe ebandayo”, alufuni kuva malunga nezoyikiso zemfazwe yenyukliya, ngaphezulu kwezinye izoyikiso esijongene nazo mihla le.

Wonke umntwana uzalelwa kwihlabathi elihle apho imfazwe yezixhobo zenyukliya ibeka emngciphekweni ubomi bonke. Mhlawumbi lixesha lokuba uqalise ukucinga ngeengozi zemfazwe yenyukliya kwakhona, hayi ngokungcangcazelisa ingqondo, kodwa ngommangaliso womntwana ofumanisa ihlabathi.

Yonke imihla efikayo ngaphandle kwemfazwe yenyukliya sisipho esimangalisayo sobuhle nethemba. Ndiyabahlonipha kwaye ndiyabahlonipha bonke abaye basebenza ukunqanda imfazwe yenyukliya, nangona iindlela zethu ngamanye amaxesha zinokubonakala zichasa ngokupheleleyo. Nantsi indlela yokuphepha imfazwe yenyukliya ngo-2017 kwaye ngonaphakade!