nguTrita Parsi, Oktobha 13, 2017
ukusuka CommonDreams
Musa ukwenza iphutha: Asinayo ingxaki kwi-Iran nuclear nuclear. Kusebenza kwaye wonke umntu ovela kuNobhala uMattis kunye noTillerson ukuya kwi-US kunye neenkonzo zeengcali ze-Israel kwi-International Atomic Energy Agency ziyavuma: I-Iran iyanamathela kulo mcimbi. Kodwa uTrump sele eza kuthatha isivumelwano kwaye asiguqule sibe yingxaki- ingxaki yamanye amazwe enokuthi ikhokelele kwimfazwe. Ngelixa ukumiselwa kwakhona kwesivumelwano sase-Iran ukuba uTrump ucwangciselwe ukubhengeza ngolwe-Sihlanu kwaye ngokwawo awuyi kuwela isivumelwano, oko kubangela inkqubo eyonyusa umngcipheko wemfazwe ngezi ndlela zintlanu zilandelayo.
1. Ukuba idibaniso liyehla, kunjalo kunye nemimiselo kwiprogram yenyukliya yase-Iran
Isicwangciso senyukliya, okanye iSicwangciso seNtsebenziswano esicwangcisiweyo seNtsebenzo (JCPOA) sithatha iziganeko ezimbini ezimbi kakhulu kwitheyibhile: Zivimbile zonke iindlela ze-Iran ukuya kwibhomu yenyukliya kwaye yathintela imfazwe ne-Iran. Ngokubulala i-deal, I-Trump ibeka ezi zimbini iziganeko ezimbi etafileni.
Njengoko ndichaza kwincwadi yam Ukuphulukana notshaba-u-Obama, i-Iran kunye noloyiso lwezozakuzo, yayiyeyona ngozi yokwenene yongquzulwano lomkhosi olwaqhuba ulawulo lukaBarack Obama ukuba luzinikezele ekufumaneni isisombululo esimalunga nale ngxaki. NgoJanuwari 2012, owayengu-Nobhala Wezomkhosi ngelo xesha, u-Leon Panetta wachaza esidlangalaleni ukuba i-Iran iyaphuma-ixesha eliza kuthatha ekuthatheni isigqibo sokwakha ibhombu yokuba nezinto zebhombu- yayizinyanga ezilishumi elinambini. Ngaphandle kwezohlwayo ezikhulu e-Iran ezijolise ekubambezeleni inkqubo yenyukliya kunye nokuqinisekisa ama-Irani ukuba inkqubo yenyukliya ibiza kakhulu ukuba iqhubeke, abantu base-Irani bandise ngamandla imisebenzi yabo yenyukliya.
Ngomhla kaJanuwari 2013, kanye nonyaka kamva, ingqiqo entsha yokukhawuleza yavela kwiNdlu ye-White House. Ixesha lokuphumla kwe-Iran liye lanyuka kwiinyanga ezililishumi elinesibini kwiiveki ze-8-12 nje. Ukuba i-Iran inqume ukuphosa ibhokhwe, iUnited States ingenakho ixesha elaneleyo lokumisa iTehran ngezempi. Ngokomnye umlawuli we-CIA, uMlawuli uMichael Morell, ixesha lokuphumla kwe-Iran liye labangela ukuba i-US ibe "sisondele kwimfazwe kwiRiphabhlikhi yamaSilayam kunanini na ixesha ukususela kwi1979. "Amanye amazwe aqonda loo ngozi. "Isisongelo saloo mkhosi sasicinga ukuba umbane emoyeni phambi kwezulu," uNgqongqoshe waseRussia u-Sergey Ryabkov wandixelela.
Ukuba akukho nto itshintshileyo, u-Mongameli u-Obama uqukumbele, i-US kungekudala izakujongana nenketho yokubini: Nokuba ungaya emfazweni ne-Iran (ngenxa yoxinzelelo oluvela kwa-Israyeli, eSaudi Arabia nakwizinto ezithile ngaphakathi e-US) zokumisa inkqubo yenyukliya okanye ukuvuma kwenyukliya. accompli. Ekuphela kwendlela yokuphuma kule meko yokuphulukana nayo yayisisisombululo sezopolitiko. Kwiinyanga ezintathu kamva, i-US kunye ne-Iran zabamba umhlangano obalulekileyo owawuyimfihlo e-Oman apho ulawulo luka-Obama lwaphumelela ukukhusela uqhushululu olwahlahla indlela ye-JCPOA.
Lo mbandela wawuthintela imfazwe. Ukubulala eso sivumelwano sithintela uxolo. Ukuba iTrump igxotha le ntsebenzo kwaye ama-Irani aqala kabusha inkqubo yabo, i-US iya kufikelela ngokukhawuleza ibhekane neengxaki ezifanayo no-Obama ezenzayo kwi-2013. Ukwahlula kukuba uMongameli ngoku nguDonald Trump, indoda engakwaziyo ukupela ukudibanisa idimbolthi, kungabi yinto yokuziphatha.
2. I-Trump iceba ukuthatha i-Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps
Ukuchongwa kwesigqibo siqingatha ibali kuphela. I-Trump iphanga icebo lokwandisa kakhulu ukunyanzelana ne-Iran kummandla, kubandakanywa ukuthatha umlinganiselo zombini uBush kunye nolawulo luka-Obama bayayinqabela: Khetha i-Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (i-IRGC) njengombutho wesigebengu. Musa ukwenza iphutha, i-IRGC ikude nomkhosi wabangcwele. Inoxanduva lokunciphisa abantu abemi ngaphakathi kwe-Iran kwaye balwa nemikhosi yase-United States ngokungaqhelekanga e-Iraq ngokusebenzisa ama-Shia amabutho. Kodwa kuye kwaba yinto ebalulekileyo kakhulu yokulwa ne-ISIS.
Ngokwenene, ukutyunjwa akufaki ukuxinzelelo kwi-US okanye sele inokumisela kwi-IRGC. Kodwa ithawula izinto ngendlela eyingozi kakhulu ngaphandle kweenzuzo ezicacileyo kwiUnited States. Noko ke, ukungaphumeleli, nangona kunjalo, i-crystal icace. Umlawuli we-IRGC u-Mohammad Ali Jafari ukhishwe isilumkiso sesonto elidlulileyo: "Ukuba iindaba zichanekile malunga nobubhanxa bakarhulumente waseMelika ekuqwalaseleni iQela leNguquko njengeqela labanqolobi, ke abaGadi boVukelo bayakuwuthatha umkhosi waseMelika njenge-Islamic State [ISIS] kwihlabathi liphela." Ukuba i-IRGC yenza isilumkiso sayo kwaye ijolise kwimikhosi yase-US- kwaye kukho iithagethi ezingama-10,000 e-Iraq-siyakuba ngamanyathelo ambalwa ukusuka emfazweni
3. Ixilongo likhula ngaphandle kokuba naluphi na irampu yokuphuma
Ukunyuka kweemeko kukuphantsi kwazo zonke iimeko umdlalo onobungozi. Kodwa kuyingozi kakhulu xa ungenayo izithuthi zengqungquthela eziqinisekisa ukuba olunye uhlangothi lufunda iimpawu zakho ngokuchanekileyo kwaye lunika iinkqubo zokunyuka kwesantya. Ukungabi namanxuwa anjalo kunokufana nokushayela imoto ngaphandle kokuqhawula. Unako ukukhawuleza, unokonakala, kodwa awukwazi ukuwaphula.
Amagosa aseMpi ayaqonda oku. Yiloo nto eyakuba ngumongameli weeNtloko zeeNtloko zabasebenzi uMnumzana Mike Mullen lumkisa malunga phambi kolawulo luka-Obama lokutyalomali kwi-diplomacy. "Asizange sibe neqhagamshelwano ngqo ne-Iran ukususela kwi-1979," kusho u-Mullen. "Kwaye ndicinga ukuba uye watyala imbewu eninzi ngenxa yokungahambi kakuhle. Xa ungeyiphuthaphulo, unokwanda kwaye ungaqondi kakuhle ... Asinakuthetha no-Iran, ngoko asiqondani. Ukuba kukho into eyenzekayo, kuyaqinisekiswa ukuba asiyi kuyenza ngokufanelekileyo-ukuba kuya kubakho ukuchithwa okungaba yingozi kakhulu kuloo nxalenye yehlabathi. "
U-Mullen wakhupha lesi sixwayiso xa u-Obama engumongameli, indoda ivame ukugxeka ngenxa yokuba ikhuselekile kwaye ingathandi ukusebenzisa amandla empi. Khawucinge nje ukuba ukhathazekile kwaye ukhathazeke kangakanani uMunlen kufuneka abe namhlanje noTrump abiza izibhengezo kwiimeko zendawo.
4. Abanye abalingani base-US bafuna i-US ukulwa imfazwe yabo ne-Iran
Akukho mfihlelo u-Israyeli, ISaudi Arabia kwaye i UAE baye baxosha i-US iminyaka ukuya e-Iran. U-Israyeli ngokukodwa wayengenasisongelo sokuthatha isenzo sokulwa, kodwa injongo yakhe yayikukunceda iUnited States ukuba ihlasele izixhobo zenukliya zase-Iran.
"Injongo," Lowo owayenguNdunankulu wase-Israel u-Ehud Barak wavuma kwiphepha le-Israel Ynet ngoJulayi walo nyaka, "Kwakubini ukwenza amaMerika akhulise izigwebo kunye nokuqhuba ukusebenza." Nangona isiseko sezokhuseleko lwase-Israel namhlanje sichasa ukubulala isixhobo senyukliya (uBharak ngokwakhe wathi udliwano ndlebe neNew York Times kule veki), akukho zibonakaliso ukuba uNkulumbuso wase-Israel uBenjamin Netanyahu utshintshe ingqondo yakhe kule ngxaki. Ubize iTrump ukuba "lungisa okanye i-nix”Isivumelwano, nangona indlela yakhe yokulungisa le ntengiselwano ingenangqondo kodwa iqinisekisa ukuba isivumelwano siza kuwa - esiya kuthi sibeke i-US kwindlela eya emfazweni ne-Iran.
Umntu oyedwa onokuba nomgwebo ogqithiseleyo ngaphezu kweTump u-Netanyahu. Emva koko, oku kuku oko waxelela abameli be-US kwi-2002 njengoko wayebacela ukuba bahlasele i-Iraq: "Ukuba uthabatha uSaddam, umbuso wakwaSaddam, ndiqinisekisa ukuba kuya kuba neempembelelo ezintle kummandla."
5. Abanikeli beTrump baxakeke ngokuqala ukulwa ne-Iran
Abanye bacebise ukuba uTrump ulandela ukumiselwa kwesivumelwano sase-Iran-ngaphandle kwengcebiso yokuvumelana yabacebisi bakhe abaphezulu ukuba bangayi kule ndlela-ngenxa yoxinzelelo kwisiseko sakhe. Kodwa akukho bungqina bokuba isiseko sakhe siwukhathalele kakhulu lo mbandela. Endaweni yokuba u-Eli Clifton abhale ngocoselelo, awona mandla azinikeleyo kuTrump wokubulala isivumelwano sase-Iran ayisosiseko sakhe, kodwa liqela elincinci labanikeli abaphezulu beRiphabhlikhi. "Inani elincinci lelona phulo lakhe likhulu kunye nabaxhasi bezomthetho benze amagqabantshintshi malunga ne-Iran kwaye, kwityala elinye, bakhuthaza ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya ngokuchasene ne-Islamic Republic," UClafton wabhala ngenyanga edlulileyo.
Umxhasi we-Home Depot, uMsunguli we-Home Depot uBernard Marcus, umzekelo, unike iTragump $ 101,700 ukukunceda ukuhlawula imali ye-Trump noDonald Trump Jr. Umxhasi we-Hedge-fund uPaul Singer ungomnye umxhasi omkhulu kwiqela elilwa nemfazwe eWashington apho iTump ixhomekeke ekuncedeni ngemali. Umncedisi ogqwesileyo we-billionaire, u-Sheldon Adelson oye wanikela ngemali eyi-35 yezigidi ukuya ku-Trump Super PAC i45. Bonke aba banikeli baye batyhubela imfazwe ne-Iran, nangona kuphela u-Adelson uye waya kude ukubonisa ukuba I-US kufuneka ifake iIran ngezixhobo zenuzi njengendlela yokuthetha.
Ngaloo ndlela, iTump ihambe kunye neengcebiso zala mabhiliyoni kwi-Iran ngaphezu koNobhala kaRhulumente, uNobhala wezoKhuseleko kunye noSihlalo weeNtloko zeeNtloko zabasebenzi. Akukho nanye kwezi zihlandlo ezi-5 zilapha zingenakwenzeka ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlulileyo. Ziye zenzeke - mhlawumbi - kuba i-Trump inqume ukwenza njalo. Njengoko uGeorge Bush ehlasela i-Iraq, ukuxabana kweTump kunye ne-Iran yimfazwe yokukhetha, kungekhona imfazwe ebalulekileyo.
~~~~~~~~~
Trita Parsi ungumsekeli kunye nomongameli weSizwe seSizwe sase-Iranian American kunye neengcali ze-US-Iranian ubudlelwane, ezopolitiko zangaphandle ze-Iranian, kunye ne-geopolitics yaseMiddle East. Nguye umbhali Ukuphulukana notshaba - u-Obama, i-Iran kunye noKoyisa kwezozakuzo; Uluhlu olunye lweDayisi-iDiplomacy ka-Obama kunye ne-Iran; yaye Ulwalamano olusinyanisekileyo: Iingxoxo ezifihlakeleyo zakwaSirayeli, i-Iran kunye ne-United States.
