Iindlela ezili-10 zeendlela zikaTrump ngokuchasene ne-Iran zonzakalise amaMelika kunye noMmandla

NguMedea uBenjamin noNicolas JS Davies, nge-10 kaJanuwari ka-2020

Ukubulawa kwabantu e-US u-General Qassem Soleimani engekasingenisi kwimfazwe egcwele ngokupheleleyo ne-Iran ngenxa yokuphendula ngokulingana kuka-Iranian, obonise amandla ayo ngaphandle kokonzakalisa imikhosi yase-US okanye ukwandisa ungquzulwano. Kodwa ingozi yemfazwe egcwele ngokupheleleyo isekhona, kwaye iintshukumo zikaDonald Trump sele zidala umtsalane.

Ingxwelerha ebuhlungu yenqwelwana yabakhweli base-Ukranian eshiye i-176 iswelekile ingaba ngumzekelo wokuqala wale nto, ukuba ngenene yadutyulwa yinqanawa yokulwa nenqwelomoya yase-Iranian eyaphatha kakubi isikhululo seenqwelomoya ngenqwelomoya.

Izenzo zikaTrump zenza lo mmandla, kunye nabantu baseMelika, bangakhuselekanga okungenani ngeendlela ezilishumi ezibalulekileyo.

 1. Iziphumo zokuqala zokuqhawuka kukaTrump kunokuba ukwanda kokusweleka kwimfazwe yase-US ngaphesheya kwe-Middle East enkulu. Ngelixa oku kuthintelwe ekubuyiseleni i-Iran, imikhosi yase-Iraq ne-Hezbollah eLebhanon sele yesifungo ukufuna ukuziphindezela ngokufa kukaSoleimani nomkhosi wase-Iraq. Iziseko zomkhosi zase-US, imfazwe kunye phantse i80,000 Imikhosi yase-US kule ngingqi ihleli amadada ukuziphindezela yi-Iran, imanyano zayo kunye nalo naliphi na iqela elicaphukiswe zizenzo zase-US okanye ngokuthatha isigqibo sokuxhaphaza le ngxaki yenziwe yi-US.

Ukufa kokuqala kwemfazwe yase-US emva kwenqwelomoya nokubulawa kwabantu e-Iraq e-Iraq abantu abathathu baseMelika babulawa NguAl-Shabab eKenya nge-5 kaJanuwari. Ukunyuka okonyukayo kwe-US ekuphenduleni i-Iranian kunye nolunye uhlaselo kubantu baseMelika kuya kwandisa lo mjikelo wobundlobongela.

2. Izenzo zaseMelika zemfazwe eIraq ziye zajova ukungazinzi kunye nokungazinzi kwimimandla esele idlakazwe yimfazwe kunye nokuqhuma. Umanyano olusondeleyo e-US, Saudi Arabia, ibona iinzame zalo zokusombulula ukungqubana kwayo ne-Qatar kunye ne-Kuwait iphoswa emngciphekweni, kwaye ngoku kuya kuba nzima ukufumana isisombululo se-diplomatic kwimfazwe eyintlekele e-Yemen – apho iSaudis ne Irani bahlukile amacala empixano.

Ukubulawa kukaSoleimani kusenokwenzeka ukuba kuphazamise inkqubo yoxolo kunye neTaliban eAfghanistan. I-Shiite Iran ngokwembali yayiphikisana ne-Sunni Taliban, kwaye u-Soleimani wade wasebenza ne-United States emva kokubhukuqwa kwe-Taliban e-US ngo-2001. Ngoku umhlaba uguqukile. Njengokuba i-United States ibisenza uthethathethwano ngoxolo kunye neTaliban, ngokunjalo ne-Iran. Ngoku abantu baseIran banomdla wokudibana neTaliban nxamnye neUnited States. Imeko enzima ye-Afghanistan inokuthi idwebe ePakistan, omnye umdlali obalulekileyo kwingingqi enabantu abaninzi baseShiite. Zombini oorhulumente base-Afghan nasePakistan sele benazo bavakalise uloyiko lwabo ukuba ungquzulwano lwe-US-Iran lunokubangela ubundlobongela obungalawulekiyo emhlabeni wabo.

Njengongenelelo olufutshane nolonakalisayo olungenelela lwaseMelika kuMbindi Mpuma, izigebenga zikaTrump zinokuba neziqhushumbo ebezingalindelekanga kwiindawo uninzi lwabantu baseMelika engekaziva nokuthetha, zibeka umtya omtsha weenkqubo zangaphandle zase-US.

3. Ukuhlaselwa kukaTrump kwiIran kunokuba khalipha Utshaba oluqhelekileyo, i-Islamic State, enokuthatha ithuba lokungqubana okwenziwe e-Iraq. Ndiyabulela kubunkokeli buka-Soleimani Jikelele wase-Iran, i-Iran yadlala indima ebalulekileyo kumlo ochasene ne-ISIS, eyayiphantse yabakho Utyunyiwe ngokupheleleyo Ngo-2018 emva kwemfazwe yeminyaka emine.

Ukubulawa kukaSoleimani kunokuba yintsikelelo kwiintsalela ze-ISIS ngokuphembelela umsindo phakathi kwamaIraq ngokuchasene nemesis yeqela, amaMelika, kunye nokudala ukwahlula phakathi kwemikhosi- kubandakanya i-Iran kunye ne-United States- ebesilwa ne-ISIS. Ukongeza, umanyano olukhokelwa yi-US oluqhuba i-ISIS "ikhefu"Iphulo lakhe nxamnye ne-Islamic State ukuze zilungiselele ukuhlaselwa kwe-Iranian kwiziseko ze-Iraq ezisingatha imikhosi yomanyano, inike elinye ithuba lokuvula kwi-Islamic State.

 4. I-Iran ibhengeze ukuba iyarhoxa kuyo yonke imiqathango yokucebisa i-uranium ebeyinxalenye yesivumelwano senyukliya se-JCPOA sika-2015. I-Iran ayirhoxanga ngokusesikweni kwi-JCPOA, kwaye ayikwenqabanga ukongamela kwenkqubo yayo yenyukliya, kodwa oku kunjalo Elinye inyathelo elinye ekutyhilekeni kwesivumelwano senyukliya ukuba uluntu lwehlabathi luxhaswe. UTrump wayezimisele ukujongela phantsi i-JCPOA ngokukhupha i-US ngo-2018, kwaye ukunyuka ngakunye kwe-US kozohlwayo, izoyikiso kunye nokusetyenziswa kwamandla kwi-Iran kuya kwenza buthathaka i-JCPOA kwaye yenze ukuwa kwayo ngokupheleleyo kube kunokwenzeka.

 5. Iimpazamo zikaTrump ziye itshabalalisile impembelelo encinci i-US eyayinayo ngurhulumente wase-Iraq. Oku kucace gca kuvoto yePalamente yakutshanje yokugxotha umkhosi wase-US. Ngelixa umkhosi wase-US ungalindelekanga ukuba uhambe ngaphandle kothethathethwano olude, olude, iivoti ezili-170-0 (iiSunnis neKurds azivelanga), kunye nesihlwele esikhulu esiphume sidibene nomngcwabo kaSoleimani, bonisa indlela jikelele ukubulawa kwabantu kuye kwavuselela uvakalelo olukhulu ekuchaseni iMelika eIraq.

Ukubulawa kwabantu kuye kwanqamla ukuphangwa kweIraq intshukumo yenkululeko. Ngaphandle kwengcinezelo enoburhalarhume eyabulala ngaphezulu koqhankqalazo olungama-400, abantu abancinci baseIraq badibana e2019 befuna urhulumente omtsha ongenarhwaphilizo nolawulo lwamagunya angaphandle. Baphumelele ekunyanzeleni ukurhoxa kwe-Nkulumbuso u-Adil Abdul-Mahdi, kodwa bafuna ukubuyisa ngokupheleleyo ulawulo lwe-Iraq koonodoli abakhohlakeleyo base-US nabase-Irani abaphethe i-Iraq ukusukela ngo-2003. Ngoku umsebenzi wabo unzima zizenzo zase-US eziqinise kuphela Abapolitiki baseIran kunye namaqela.

6. Esinye isiphumo esingenakugwenywa somgaqo-nkqubo weTrump osileleyo we-Iran kukuba iqinisa amaqela okugcina, e-Iran. Njengase-US nakwamanye amazwe, i-Iran inezopolitiko zayo zangaphakathi, ineendawo ezahlukeneyo zokujonga. UMongameli Rouhani kunye noMphathiswa Wezangaphandle u-Zarif, othethathethane ne-JCPOA, bavela kwiphiko lenguquko kwezopolitiko zase-Iranian ezikholelwa ukuba i-Iran inganakho kwaye kufuneka ifikelele kwilizwe lonke kwaye izame ukusombulula iiyantlukwano ekudala zikho ne-US Kodwa kukho Iphiko elinamandla elikholelwayo elikholelwa ukuba i-US izinikele ekutshabalaliseni i-Iran kwaye ke ngekhe izalisekise naziphi na izibophelelo ezizenzayo. Ucinga ukuba leliphi icala uTrump aqinisekisa kwaye omeleze umgaqo-nkqubo wakhe okhohlakeleyo wokubulala, ukohlwaya kunye nosongelo?

Nokuba umongameli olandelayo wase-US uzibophelele nyhani kuxolo ne-Iran, angagqibela ngokuhlala etafileni evela kwiinkokheli zase-Iranian ezizimeleyo, ezinesizathu esivakalayo, ezingayi kuthembela kuyo nayiphi na inkokheli yase-US.

Ukubulawa kukaSoleimani kuphelise imiboniso ethandwayo nxamnye norhulumente waseIran owaqala ngo-Novemba ngo-2019 kwaye bacinezelwa kabuhlungu. Endaweni yoko, ngoku abantu bavakalisa inkcaso yabo ngakwimelika

 7. Iimpazamo zikaTrump zisenokuba isitya sokugqibela kubahlobo baseMelika kunye nabahlobo Ababambelele kwi-US kwiminyaka engama-20 yokuqunjelwa ngumgaqo-nkqubo wezangaphandle wase-US. Amazwe aseYurophu angavumelani nokurhoxiswa kukaTrump kwisivumelwano senyukliya kwaye azamile, nangona kunjalo, ukuyisindisa. Xa uTrump wayezama ukuhlanganisa umkhosi wamazwe aphesheya ukuba ukhusele ukuthunyelwa eStrat of Hormuz ngonyaka ka-2019, yi-UK, Australia namanye amazwe asePersi Gulf afuna nayiphi na inxenye yayo, ngoku i-10 kunye namanye amazwe ase-Europe ajoyine Olunye uhlobo lomsebenzi ekhokelwa yiFrance.

Kwinkomfa yoonondaba ye-8 kaJanuwari, uTrump wabiza i-NATO ukuba idlale indima enkulu eMbindi Mpuma, kodwa uTrump ebeshushu kwaye ebanda kwi-NATO – ngamanye amaxesha eyibiza ukuba iphelelwe lixesha kwaye esoyikisela ukurhoxa. Emva kokubulawa kukaTrump kwe-Iran ngokubanzi, amahlakani eNATO aqala rhoxisa imikhosi esuka eIraq, etyhila ukuba abafuni kubanjwa kukudibana kwemfazwe yomlo kaTrump eIran.

Ngokukhula kwezoqoqosho e-China, kunye ne-Russia ehlaziyiweyo yezopolitiko, ulwamvila lomlando luyatshintsha kwaye ilizwe elinamacala amaninzi liyavela. Ngakumbi nangakumbi kwihlabathi, ngakumbi kumazantsi ehlabathi, ibona umkhosi wezomkhosi wase-US njengengxaki yamandla amakhulu aphelayo ukuzama ukugcina isikhundla sayo kwihlabathi. Mangaphi amathuba okuba i-US ekugqibeleni ifumane eli lungelo kwaye izifumanele indawo esemthethweni kwilizwe elitsha elithe lazama laza lasilela ukuntywila ekuzalweni?

8. Izenzo zase-US e-Iraq zaphula umthetho wamazwe, owasekhaya kunye no-Iraq, Ukumisela inqanaba lehlabathi lokungabikho kokusesona okukhulu ngakumbi. Umbutho wamanye amazwe we-Democratic Lawyers (IADL) uyile ingxelo echaza ukuba kutheni ukuhlaselwa nokubulawa kwabantu e-Iraq e-Iraq kungakufaneli njengezenzo zokuzikhusela kwaye kukwizenzo zolwaphulo-mthetho ezaphula uMgaqo-siseko we-UN. UTrump kwakhona kwi-tweet wathi i-US yayilungele ukubetha iziza ezingama-52 e-Iran, kubandakanya neethagethi zenkcubeko, eziya kuthi zaphule umthetho wamanye amazwe.

Amalungu eCongress acaphuka ukuba uhlaselo lomkhosi kaTrump lwaphule uMgaqo-siseko wase-US, kuba inqaku Ndifuna ukuvunywa kwenkomfa yezenzo ezinjalo zomkhosi. Iinkokeli ze-DRM azange zaziswe nangogwayimbo olwenziwe eSoleimani ngaphambi kokuba lwenzeke, kungafuneki ukuba lukugunyazise. Amalungu eCongress ngoku ukuzama ukunqanda I-Trump ukusuka ekulweni imfazwe ne-Iran.

Izenzo zikaTrump eIraq ziye zaphula umgaqo-siseko waseIraq, owanceda i-US ukuba ibhale kwaye yeyiphi iyala ukusebenzisa intsimi yelizwe ukwenzakalisa abamelwane bayo.

 9. Ukunyakaza kukaTrump kuqinisa abenzi bezixhobo. Iqela lase-US elinomdla linesishwankathelo esibonisa ukuba liza kubuya kwi-Ofisi kaNondyebo wase-US kunye neenzuzo ezivela kuzo zonke iimfazwe zase-US kunye nokwandiswa kwezomkhosi: umzi-mveliso wezobupolitika apho uMongameli Eisenhower walumkisa abantu baseMelika ngo-1960. Ngaphandle kokuthobela isilumkiso sakhe, sivumele le bhemoth ukunyusa ngokuqinileyo amandla ayo kunye nokulawula imigaqo-nkqubo yase-US.

Amaxabiso esitokhwe ezinkampani zemfazwe zase-US sele enyukile ukusukela oko ukubulawa kwabantu base-US kunye ne-airstrikes eIraq kwaye ii-CEO zeenkampani zezixhobo sele ubutyebi kakhulu. Imithombo yeendaba yase-US Baye bancothula ulungelelwaniso oluqhelekileyo lweenkampani zeenkampani zokuphembelela izixhobo kunye namalungu ebhodi ukubetha imigqomo yemfazwe kunye nokudumisa ubushushu bukaTrump- ngelixa bethe cwaka ngendlela abazuza ngayo buqu kuyo.

Ukuba sivumela icandelo lezomkhosi-lemfazwe ukuba lifumane imfazwe yalo e-Iran, liyakuchitha amawaka ezigidi, mhlawumbi ngezigidi ngezigidi, kubutyebi esibufuna kakhulu kwezempilo, imfundo kunye neenkonzo zikarhulumente, kwaye kuphela ukwenza umhlaba ube yindawo eyingozi nangakumbi.

10. Nakuphi na ukunyuka okuthe kratya phakathi kwe-US ne-Iran kunokuba intlekele kuqoqosho lwehlabathi, esele ikhwele i-roller-coaster ngenxa yeemfazwe zorhwebo zikaTrump. IAsia isengozini enkulu kulo naluphi na uphazamiso lokuthunyelwa kweoli e-Iraq, ethe yaxhomekeka ekubeni imveliso ye-Iraq inyukile. Umda omkhulu wePersian Gulf likhaya kweyona ndawo ininzi yequla ioyile kunye negesi, izinto zokucoca kunye neetanki zomhlaba.  Uhlaselo olunye sele evale isiqingatha semveliso yeoyile yaseSaudi Arabia ngoSeptemba, kwaye yayingumnqweno nje omncinci wento ebesifanele siyilindele ukuba i-US iyaqhubeka iyanda imfazwe yayo ne-Iran.

isiphelo

Ukugqabhuka kukaTrump kusibuyisele umva kwindlela eya kwimfazwe eyintlekele ngokwenene, kunye neendlela ezithintela ubuxoki ezithintela yonke i-off-ramp. Imfazwe zaseKorea, iVietnam, iIraq kunye ne-Afghanistan ziye zaxabisa izigidi zemiphefumlo, zashiya igunya lase-US lokuziphatha kumazwe angaphandle laziveza njengemfazwe kwaye iyingozi amandla e-imperial emehlweni amaninzi ehlabathi. Ukuba siyasilela ukukhupha iinkokeli zethu ezikhohlisiweyo zibuyele elunxwemeni, imfazwe yaseMelika e-Iran inokuphawula ukuphela okulihlazo kwexesha lethu lobukhosi kwaye itywinele indawo yelizwe lethu phakathi kwabanqolobi abangaphumelelanga abathi ilizwe libakhumbule ikakhulu njengabantu ababi bembali yomntu. .

Ngenye indlela, thina bantu baseMelika, singavuka ukuze soyise amandla obunzima bemikhosi yezomkhosi kunye Thatha inxaxheba yelizwe lethu. Imiboniso echasene nemfazwe eyenzeka kwilizwe lonke yimbonakaliso entle yokubonakalisa uvakalelo esidlangalaleni. Eli lixesha elinzima lokuba abantu beli lizwe bavuke kwindawo ebonakalayo, ngesibindi nangokuzimisela ekumiselweni kwabo bantu bahlanya kwi-White House kunye nemfuno, kwilizwi elinye elikhulu: HAYI. KANINZI. UMFA.

UMedi Bhenjamin, umseki weCODEPINK yoxoloUmbhali weencwadi ezininzi, kubandakanyaNgaphakathi kwe-Iran: Imbali Yembali kunye nezopolitiko zeRiphabhliki yase-Iran kwayeUBukumkani boBulungisa: Emva kwe-US-Saudi Connection.

UNicolas JS Davies yintatheli ezimeleyo, umphandi weCODEPINKUmbhali weIgazi ezandleni zethu: Invasion yaseMelika kunye nokuTshatyalaliswa kwe-Iraq.