By Prabir Purkayastha, World BEYOND War, Maarso 17, 2023
Heshiiskii u dambeeyay ee Australia, US, iyo UK oo ku kacaya 368 bilyan oo dollar oo lagu iibsanayo maraakiibta quusta ee Nukliyeerka ayaa waxaa ku tilmaamay Paul Keating, ra’iisul wasaarihii hore ee Australia, "heshiiskii ugu xumaa taariikhda oo dhan." Waxa ay Australia ka go'an tahay in ay soo iibsato maraakiibta quusta ee hubka nukliyeerka ah ee sida caadiga ah u hubaysan oo la keeni doono horaantii 2040-meeyadii. Kuwani waxay ku salaysnaan doonaan naqshado cusub oo nukliyeerka ah oo aan weli UK soo saarin. Dhanka kale, laga bilaabo 2030-meeyadii, “ansixinta laga sugayo Congress-ka Maraykanka, Maraykanku waxa uu ku talo jiraa in uu ka iibiyo Australia saddex markab hoostiisa ah oo nooca Virginia ah, iyada oo ay suurtogal tahay in uu iibiyo ilaa laba kale haddii loo baahdo"Iskaashiga Saddex geesoodka ah ee Australia-UK-US ee Maraakiibta Quwadda Nukliyeerka ah, Maarso 13, 2023; xooga saara kayga). Marka loo eego tafaasiisha, waxa ay u muuqataa in heshiiskani uu Australia kaga go’an yahay in ay Maraykanka ka soo iibsadaan sideed markab oo cusub oo Nukliyeer ah, oo la keeno laga bilaabo 2040-ka ilaa dhamaadka 2050-ka. Haddii submarinnada nukliyeerka ay aad muhiim ugu ahaayeen amniga Australia, taas oo ay u ahayd jabiyay heshiiskii ay kula jirtay Faransiiska ee ku shaqayn jiray naaftada, heshiiskani ma bixinayo jawaabo lagu kalsoonaan karo.
Kuwa la socday arrimaha fidinta nukliyeerka, heshiiska ayaa kor u qaadaya calan cas oo ka duwan. Haddi tignoolajiyada reactor-ka nukliyeerka badda hoosteeda mara iyo heerka-hubka uranium-ka (aad loo xoojiyey) lala wadaago Australia, waa jebinta heshiiskii Nukliyeerka ee aan faafin (NPT) taas oo Australia ay saxiixday sida awood aan Nukliyeer ahayn. Xataa keenista tamarta nukliyeerka ee Maraykanka iyo UK waxay ka dhigan tahay jebinta NPT. Tani waa xitaa haddii aysan sidan oo kale aysan qaadin hubka Nukliyeerka ah ee ay wataan hub caadi ah sida lagu sheegay heshiiskan.
Haddaba maxay tahay sababta Australiya uga laabatay heshiiskii ay Faransiiska kula jirtay, kaas oo ahaa inay ka soo iibsadaan 12 maraakiibta naaftada ah Faransiiska oo ku kacaya $67 bilyan, qayb yar oo ka mid ah heshiiskii ay Maraykanka la gashay $368 bilyan oo gargantuan? Maxay faa'iido u leedahay, maxayse faa'iido u tahay Maraykanka oo ka careysiiya Faransiiska, oo ka mid ah xulafadiisa dhow ee NATO?
Si aan u fahamno, waa inaan aragnaa sida Maraykanku u eego juqraafiyeedka, iyo sida Shanta Indho - US, UK, Canada, Australia, iyo New Zealand - ugu habboon yihiin sawirkan weyn. Sida cad, Maraykanku wuxuu aaminsan yahay in xudunta u ah isbahaysiga NATO ay tahay Maraykanka, Boqortooyada Ingiriiska, iyo Kanada ee Atlantic iyo Maraykanka, Boqortooyada Ingiriiska, iyo Australia ee Indo-Pacific. Inta kale ee xulafadeeda ah, xulafada NATO ee Yurub iyo Japan iyo Kuuriyada Koonfureed ee Bariga iyo Koonfurta Aasiya, waxay ku wareegsan yihiin xudunta shanta indhood. Taasi waa sababta Maraykanku u rabay inuu u xumeeyo Faransiiska inuu heshiis la galo Australia.
Muxuu Maraykanku ka helay heshiiskan? Ballanqaadka siddeed maraakiibta nukliyeerka ah oo la siin doono Australia laba ilaa afartan sano oo khadka hoostiisa ah, Maraykanku wuxuu helayaa Australia si loogu isticmaalo saldhig loogu talagalay taageeridda ciidammadeeda badda, ciidanka cirka, iyo xitaa askarta Maraykanka. The Erayada uu isticmaalo Aqalka Cad ayaa ah"Laga bilaabo 2027, Boqortooyada Midowday ee Ingiriiska iyo Maraykanku waxay qorsheynayaan inay abuuraan joogitaan wareeg ah oo ah mid ka mid ah markabka hoostiisa ee fasalka Astute UK iyo ilaa afar markab hoosaadka US Virginia ee HMAS Stirling meel u dhow Perth, Galbeedka Australia." Isticmaalka weedha "joogitaanka wareega" waa in la siiyo Australia caleenta berdaha ah in aysan siinaynin Maraykanka saldhig ciidan, sababtoo ah taasi waxay ku xad-gudbi doontaa booska muddada dheer ee Australia ee aan saldhig shisheeye ku lahayn dhulkeeda. Sida cad, dhammaan qaab-dhismeedka taageerada ee looga baahan yahay wareegyada noocan oo kale ah waa waxa uu leeyahay saldhigga milatari ee shisheeye, sidaas darteed waxay u shaqeyn doonaan sidii saldhigyo Maraykan ah.
Yaa bartilmaameedka u ah isbahaysiga AUKUS? Tani waxay si cad u tahay dhammaan qoraallada ku saabsan mawduuca iyo waxa dhammaan hoggaamiyeyaasha AUKUS ay yiraahdeen: waa Shiinaha. Si kale haddii loo dhigo, tani waa xakamaynta siyaasadda Shiinaha ee badda Koonfurta Shiinaha iyo marin biyoodka Taiwan oo ah gobollada muhiimka ah ee lagu muransan yahay badweynta. In la dhigo maraakiibta ciidamada badda ee Maraykanka oo ay ku jiraan kuwa quusa ee Nukliyeerka ah ee ku hubaysan hubka nukliyeerka ayaa Australia ka dhigaysa waddan safka hore kaga jira qorshaha Maraykanka ee ku wajahan xakamaynta Shiinaha. Intaa waxaa dheer, waxay cadaadis ku abuureysaa inta badan waddamada Koonfur-bari Aasiya kuwaas oo jeclaan lahaa inay ka fogaadaan tartanka Mareykanka iyo Shiinaha ee lagu qabanayo Badda Koonfurta Shiinaha.
In kasta oo dhiirigelinta Maraykanku u diyaariyo Australia sidii waddan safka hore uga soo horjeeda Shiinaha ay tahay mid la fahmi karo, waxa adag in la fahmo Faa'iidada Australiya waxay ka heshay toosintan. Shiinuhu ma aha oo kaliya soo dejinta ugu weyn ee alaabta Australiya, laakiin sidoo kale alaab-qeybiyaha ugu weyn. Si kale haddii loo dhigo, haddii Australia ay ka walaacsan tahay badbaadada ganacsigeeda iyada oo loo marayo badda Koonfurta Shiinaha ee weerarrada Shiinaha, Ganacsiga ugu badan waa Shiinaha. Haddaba maxay tahay sababta Shiinuhu ugu waalan karo si uu u weeraro ganacsigiisa Australia? Maraykanka waxa ay macno weyn u samaynaysaa in la helo qaarad dhan, Australia, si ay u martigeliso ciidamadeeda si aad ugu dhow Shiinaha in ka badan 8,000-9,000 mayl u jirta Maraykanka. laba dhibcood oo barroosin ah, mid waqooyi iyo mid koonfur ee gobolka bari ee Badweynta Baasifigga. Ciyaartu waa ciyaar qadiimi ah oo xakamaynta, tii Maraykanku la ciyaaray NATO, Ururka Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO), iyo Ururka Koonfur Bari Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) xulafada milatari ee dagaalkii labaad ee aduunka ka dib.
Dhibka uu maraykanku maanta haysto ayaa ah in xataa wadamada sida India oo kale ah oo arrimahooda kala dhexeeyo Shiinaha aanay Maraykanka la saxeexin isbahaysi milatari. Gaar ahaan, maadaama Maraykanku uu hadda dagaal dhaqaale kula jiro a tirada dalalka, ma aha oo kaliya Ruushka iyo Shiinaha, sida Cuba, Iran, Venezuela, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, iyo Somalia. In kasta oo Hindiya ay diyaar u ahayd inay ku biirto Quad-US, Australia, Japan, iyo India- oo ay ka qayb qaadato laylisyada milatariga, waxay ka laabatay Quad inay noqoto isbahaysi milatari. Tani waxay sharxaysaa cadaadiska Australiya ku haya inay la shuraakoobaan Maraykanka militari ahaan, gaar ahaan Koonfur-bari Aasiya.
Wali way ku guul daraysatay inay sharaxdo waxa ku jira Australia. Xataa shanta maraakiibta Nukliyeerka ee Virginia ee laga yaabo in Australia ay hesho gacan labaad waxay ku xiran tahay ansixinta Congresska Mareykanka. Kuwa la socda siyaasadda Maraykanka waxay og yihiin in Maraykanku aanu wakhtigan heshiis awood u lahayn; ma aysan ansixin hal heshiis oo ku saabsan arrimaha kulaylka caalamiga ah ilaa sharciga badaha sannadihii u dambeeyay. Sideeda kale waa 20-40 sano oo wanaagsan; yaa garanaya sida dunidu u ekaan doonto in ka fog xadka.
Waa maxay sababta, haddii amniga badda uu ahaa ujeedkiisa, Australia miyay dooratay iffy heshiiska nukliyeerka badda hoostiisa iyada oo Maraykanku ka badan yahay sahayda la hubo ee maraakiibta quusta ee Faransiiska? Tani waa a su'aasha ah in Malcolm Turnbull iyo Paul Keating, Ra'iisul Wasaarayaashii hore ee Xisbiga Shaqaalaha ee Australia, ayaa weydiiyay. Waxay macno samaynaysaa kaliya haddii aan fahamno in Australiya ay hadda isu aragto sida cog ku jira giraangiraha Mareykanka ee gobolkan. Waana aragtida odoroska awoodda ciidamada badda ee Maraykanka ee gobolka ay maanta Australia la wadaagto. Aragtidu waxay tahay in gumaystaha iyo kuwii hore ee gumaystaha - G7-AUKUS - ay noqdaan kuwa sameeya xeerarka nidaamka caalamiga ah ee hadda jira. Waxaana ka dambeeya ka hadalka nidaamka caalamiga ah gacanta boostada ee Mareykanka, NATO, iyo AUKUS. Tani waa waxa dhab ahaantii ka dhigan yahay heshiiska nukliyeerka ee badda hoostiisa.
Maqaalkan waxaa si wadajir ah u soo saaray Guji Wararka iyo Globetrotter. Prabir Purkayastha waa tafatiraha aasaasaha Newsclick.in, madal warbaahineed oo dhijitaal ah. Waa u dhaqdhaqaaqa sayniska iyo dhaqdhaqaaqa software ee bilaashka ah.
