By Mel Gurtov
Sidii si weyn loo filayay, Maxkamadda Joogtada ah ee Xalinta Khilaafaadka ee Heshiiska Qaramada Midoobay ee Sharciga Badaha (UNCLOS) waxay xukuntay 12-kii Luulyo iyadoo u hiilineysa dacwadda Filibiin inay ku dhawaaqdo sheegashada dhuleed ee Shiinaha ee Koonfurta Shiinaha (SCS) mid sharci darro ah. * Si kasta oo ay ahaataba, maxkamaddu waxay ogaatay in sheegashada Shiinaha - oo lagu macneeyay waxa loogu yeero "xariiqa sagaal-dash" - aag badeed balaaran iyo kheyraadka ku jira badda hoosteeda inay sharci darro tahay, sidaas darteedna dib u soo celinta dhulkeeda iyo mashaariicdeeda dhismaha ee jasiiradaha ku xadgudbay ee aagga u gaarka ah Filibiin. In kasta oo xukunku uusan u fidin arrinta madaxbanaanida jasiiradaha SCS, haddana wuxuu caddeeyay muranka xadka. Xukunka ayaa sidoo kale lagu helay Shiinaha dambi ah inuu waxyeeleeyay deegaanka badda iyadoo la dhisay jasiirado macmal ah, inuu si sharci darro ah u farageliyay Filipino kalluumeysiga iyo sahaminta shidaalka, iyo "inuu sii xumeynayo" khilaafaadka kala dhaxeeya Filibiin howlaha dhismaha. (Qoraalka xukunka wuxuu ku yaal https://www.scribd.com/document/318075282/Permanent-Court-of-Arbitration-PCA-on-the-West-Philippine-Sea-Arbitration#download).
Shiinaha ayaa go'aansaday jawaabtiisa bilo badan ka hor. Wasaaradda arrimaha dibaddu waxay ku dhawaaqday go'aanka maxkamadda heshiisiintu inuu yahay "mid aan waxba ka jirin oo aan lahayn wax qasab ah." Bayaanka ayaa ku celiyay sheegashada madaxbanaanida Shiinaha ee jasiiradaha SCS. Waxay caddeysay in mowqifka Shiinaha uu la jaan qaadayo sharciga caalamiga ah, aragtidaas oo ay adag tahay in lagu fagayo diidmadeeda xukunka maxkamadda dhexdhexaadinta, aadna uga yar go'aanka ay qaadatay. Shiinaha waxaa ka go'an inay si toos ah ula xaajoodaan dhinacyada daneynaya iyo in si nabad ah lagu xaliyo khilaafaadka, bayaanka ayaa lagu yiri; laakiin "arrimaha la xiriira dhulalka iyo muranka xadeynta badda, Shiinaha ma aqbalayo qaab kasta oo lagu xaliyo khilaafaadka dhinac saddexaad ama xal kasta oo lagu soo rogo Shiinaha" (Xinhua, July 12, 2016, "Bayaan Buuxa.")
Iskusoo wada duuboo, waxay maalin xun u ahayd maxkamada jamhuuriyada dadka. In kasta oo ay ballanqaadayso in aan loo hoggaansami doonin xukunka, taasoo macnaheedu yahay Shiinaha ayaa sii wadi doona millatariga jasiiradaha lagu muransan yahay isla markaana difaaci doono “danaha asaasiga ah” ee halkaas ku jira - ciidamadeedu waxay ku qabteen layliskoodii ugu horreeyay ee dabka-nool ee SCS maalin ka hor go'aanka maxkamadda - ifayadu waa sheegashada Shiinaha ee ah "awood weyn oo mas'uul ah." Madaxweyne Xi Jinping wuxuu tilmaamay 2014 in Shiinuhu u baahan yahay inuu yeesho "siyaasaddeeda arrimaha dibedda ee xoogga weyn leh oo leh astaamo gaar ah," oo uu ugu yeeray "lix joogto ah" (liuge jianchi). Mabaadi'daasi waxay u maleyneysaa inay abuureyso "nooc cusub oo xiriirka caalamiga ah," waxaana ka mid ahaa fikradaha sida "iskaashiga iyo guuleysiga," codka ugu weyn ee dalalka soo koraya, iyo difaaca caddaaladda caalamiga ah. Laakiin lixda qof ee isdaba-joogga ah waxaa kale oo ka mid ahaa "weligoodna ma dayrino xuquuqdeenna iyo danahayaga xalaasha ah"zhengdang quanyi), taas oo inta badan marmarsiiyo looga dhigto in lagu dhaqmo siyaabo toos ah oo looga soo horjeedo mas'uuliyadda caalamiga ah. (Eeg: http://world.people.com.cn/n/2014/1201/c1002-26128130.html.)
Madaxda Shiinaha hubaal waxay filayeen in saxiixa iyo ansixinta UNCLOS ay waxtar u yeelan doonaan dalka. Waxay muujineysaa sida Shiinaha uga go'an tahay heshiisyada caalamiga ah, waxayna muujineysaa ixtiraamka Shiinaha ee xuquuqda badaha kuwa kale (gaar ahaan kuwa deriska la ah Koonfur-bari Aasiya) iyo waliba sharciyeynta xuquuqdiisa, iyo fududeynta sahaminta badda. Laakiin heshiisyadu had iyo jeer uma soo baxaan sidii la filayay. Hadda oo sharcigu ka hor yimid, Shiinuhu wuxuu si lama filaan ah u doonayaa inuu u oggolaado maxkamadda UNCLOS oo uu dib u fasiro ujeeddada shirweynaha. Ma ahan in dowlado badan ay taageeri doonaan dib u noqoshada noocaas ah.
Mareykanku, in kasta oo uu had iyo jeer taageeri jiray mowqifka Filibiin, haddana ma haysto wax uu halkan ku faraxsiiyo. Marka hore, Mareykanku ma uusan saxiixin mana uusan ansaxin UNCLOS, sidaas darteedna wuxuu ku sugan yahay boos daciif ah inuu ku doodo magaceeda ama uu racfaan ka qaato sharciga caalamiga ah iyo “nidaamka ku saleysan qawaaniinta” markay dowladuhu ku xadgudbaan midkood (sida qabashadii Ruushka ee Crimea). Ta labaad, sida Shiinaha oo kale, Mareykanku had iyo jeer wuxuu aragti liidata ka qaataa sharciga caalamiga ah markii "danaha qaran" ay khatar ku jirto. Hadday ahaan lahayd xagga Maxkamadda Caalamiga ah ee Caddaaladda ama maxkamad kale oo caalami ah, Mareykanku weligiis ma aqbalin fikradda ku saabsan xukunka khasabka ah, runtiina badanaa wuxuu u dhaqmay sidii iyadoo ay tahay dhaafin sharciyada iyo qawaaniinta. Sidaa darteed, sidoo kale sida Shiinaha, mas'uuliyadda Mareykanka oo ah awood weyn si joogto ah uma aqbasho ixtiraamka iyo u hoggaansanaanta heshiisyada caalamiga ah iyo heshiisyada, hay'adaha sharciga caalamiga ah (sida Maxkamadda Dembiyada Caalamiga ah), ama qawaaniinta caalamiga ah ee sharciga (sida kuwa la xiriira ka-hortagga, xasuuqa , iyo jirdil). (Eeg: www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2014/05/america-and-international-law.) Mareykanka iyo Shiinaha labadaba, eray ahaan, waxay kuhadlaan hadalka laakiin ha socon socodka - ilaa sharcigu u adeego siyaasadiisa.
Taasina waa casharka dhabta ah ee halkan-mas'uuliyad-darrada awoodaha waaweyn, sida ay ugu adeegtaan danaha gaarka ah ee sharciga caalamiga ah, iyo awoodda yar ee hay'adaha sharciga ah ee xakameeya dhaqankooda. Waxaa laga yaabaa in kiiska SCS Shiinaha iyo Filibiin, oo hadda hoostaga madaxweyne cusub, ay dib ugu heli doonaan wadadooda dib ugu noqoshada miiska wadahadalka ayna ka shaqeyn doonaan heshiis ka soo baxa qadiyadda madaxbannaanida ee had iyo jeer adag. (Fiiri qoraalkeygii ugu dambeeyay ee mowduuca: https://mgurtov.wordpress.com/2016/06/11/post-119-too-close-for-comfort-the-dangerous-us-china-maritime-dispute/.) Taasi way fiicnaan lahayd; laakiin ma xallinayso dhibaatada aasaasiga ah ee sida dhaqanka u hoggaansamida sharciga loogu horumarin karo loona dhaqan gelin karo adduunyada inta badan fowdada ka jirta.
* Maxkamadda, oo shaqadeeda kiiska SCS ay ka bilaabatay 2013, waxay ka kooban tahay garsoorayaal ka socda Ghana, Poland, Holland, Faransiiska, iyo Jarmalka.
