Chii Chinoitika Kana Mamiriro Ekunze uye Ecological Dambudziko Rakaumbwa seKutyisidzira Kwenyika?

Mufananidzo: iStock

naLiz Boulton, Maparera uye Irritations, October 11, 2022

Kwemakore makumi matatu, njodzi yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze ine njodzi, iyo yaizoita kuti Pasi risagarike kumarudzi mazhinji, yakabatwa senyaya yesainzi uye yehutongi hwehupfumi. Zvimwe nekuda kwemaitiro enhoroondo, asiwo nekuda kwekunetsekana kuri pamutemo nezve kuchengetedzwa, idzi dzanga dziri nyaya dzechivanhu.

Nepo masayendisiti achidzidza mukana wehupenyu hwemapuraneti huputsika; Bato reDziviriro, rinopihwa kuchengetedza Nyika, vanhu nenzvimbo, (uye rinopihwa mari kuti ridaro) rinotariswa kumwe kunhu. Nyika dzekuMadokero dzinoronga dambudziko guru rekuchengetedza ikozvino sekuratidzira pasi pakati pedemocracy neautocracy mafomu ekutonga. Nyika dzisiri dzekumadokero dzinotsvaga kubva kune unipolar kuenda kune yakawanda-polar nyika.

Munzvimbo ino yezvematongerwo enyika, semukuru weUS Center yeMamiriro ekunze uye Chengetedzo John Conger Anotsanangura, kudziya kwepasi kunoonekwa sechinhu chimwe chezvikonzero zvakawanda zvine ngozi. In its 2022 Strategic Pfungwa NATO inotevera sutu, ichitsanangura kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze sedambudziko rainonyora kwekupedzisira kwe14 zvinetswa zvekuchengetedza. Aya maframing anodzokorora Sherri Goodman's yekutanga "kudziya kwepasirese sekutyisidzira kuwedzera" furemu, yakaunzwa muna 2007 CNA report.

Muna 2022, izvi ndizvo zvakajairwa kuti kuchengetedzwa kunoitwa sei. Vanhu vanoramba vari mumasilos avo ehunyanzvi uye vanoshandisa iyo inotungamira maframing uye zvimiro zvemasangano kubva pre-Anthropocene uye post WW2 era. Urongwa uhwu hunogona kunge hwakagadzikana mumagariro uye nehungwaru, asi dambudziko nderekuti, hauchashandi.

Nzira itsva inonzi 'Chirongwa E' inoronga mamiriro ekunze nemamiriro ekunze kwete se 'pesvedzero' pane nharaunda yekutyisidzira, kana 'kutyisidzira kuwedzera' asi panzvimbo pezvo, se 'kutyisidzira kukuru' kubatwa. Tsvagiridzo yaisanganisira kugadzira pfungwa nyowani yekutyisidzira - iyo hyperthreat pfungwa - uyezve kuisa iyo 'hyperthreat' kune yakagadziridzwa mauto-maitiro ekutyisidzira uye maitiro ekuronga mhinduro. Chikonzero cheiyi nzira isina kujairika, uye nzira dzinoshandiswa dzakatsanangurwa muChitubu cha2022 Chinyorwa cheAdvanced Military Zvidzidzo. Kukurudzira kufungidzira kwakakura kwemaitiro matsva ekutyisidzira angaite senge, ratidziro inoperekedza, kana prototype nyowani. zano rakakura, PLAN E, yakagadziridzwawo.

Kunyange paine njodzi uye taboo, iyi lenzi nyowani yekuongorora yakabvumira miono mitsva.

1. 1. Chekutanga, yakaratidza kuti kugona kuona kuzere kutyisidzira mamiriro e21^st Century inokanganiswa neyakachipa yehuzivi inovaka uye maonero enyika.
   2. Chechipiri, yakaratidza pfungwa yekuti mhirizhonga, kuuraya nekuparadza zvachinja; saizvozvowo ane hunhu uye chimiro chekuziva chinangwa chekuvenga.
   3. Chechitatu, zvakava pachena kuti kusvika kweiyo hyperthreat kunosimudzira nzira dzemazuva ano dzekuchengetedza. 20^th Century kuchengetedza zano rakatenderedza kutsigira maindasitiri enguva mafomu emasimba ehurumende, ayo aienderana nekutorwa kwezviwanikwa uye 'kuhwina mafuta'. muhondo. Sezvo Doug Stokes Anotsanangura, kunyanya mushure memakore ekuma1970, sezvo cheni dzepasi rose dzakava panjodzi yekuvhiringwa, pakave nekuwedzera kwepasi rose gakava rekushandisa maturusi echisimba, seCentral Intelligence Agency (CIA) neuto reUS "kuchengetedza hurongwa."

Saizvozvo, kuburikidza nekuita "system's kugadzirisa" basa, nekusaziva chikamu chekuchengetedza chinogona kupedzisira chave kushandira hyperthreat (kuwedzera kuburitsa gasi regreenhouse uye kukuvadza ecology system). Panguva imwe cheteyo, rini kutevererwa noutsinye, “Systems maintenance” inokonzeresa kugumbuka uye inogona kutungamirira ku“kumadokero” kurangarirwa sokutyisidzira kwakafanira kune mamwe marudzi. Zvakatorwa pamwechete, kukanganisa kwakadaro kunogona kureva kuti mauto edziviriro epasirese anokanganisa kuchengetedzwa kwawo uye kwevamwe nekusaziva. Izvi zvinoreva kuti mamiriro edu ekutyisidzira haasisina kubatana.

4. 4. Chechina, kuchengetedza mamiriro ekunze uye mutemo wezvakatipoteredza mune imwe silo, uye nzira yekuchengetedza mune imwe, zvaireva kuti, kunyangwe nhaurirano dzeParis Agreement yemamiriro ekunze dzakafanana nehondo yeIraq, nyaya mbiri idzi dzaisawanzobatanidzwa mukuongororwa kwemamiriro ekunze. As Jeff Colgan anowana, mafuta aive mutyairi mukuru wekukonana uku, uye nekudaro, zvakashamisa, kushandisa lenzi nyowani, Hondo yeIraq inogona kutariswa sehondo yakarwiwa pachinzvimbo chemuvengi wedu mutsva - hyperthreat. Iri gaka rinokatyamadza rekuongorora harigone kuenderera mberi mukuongororwa kwekuchengetedzwa kweramangwana.
   5. Chechishanu, kana rudzi rwehunyanzvi - sainzi yezvemamiriro ekunze kana chengetedzo yaona kusapindirana kwevanhu vachigadzirira 'kurwisa' kutyisidzira uye kuwedzera kwechinyakare kutyisidzira kwemauto panguva imwe chete. Kuburikidza nezvinoda zvingangoita pamafuta efossil; masimba einjiniya evanhu; zvetekinoroji nemari, kugadzirira kwakasimba kweHondo Yenyika Tatu (WW3) mamiriro, (kana kuti hondo huru chaiyo kubva muna 2022 kusvika muna 2030), zvingangokanganisa basa rakaoma rekushandura nzanga yevanhu kuenda kune zero emissions nzira, uye kusunga chiitiko chechitanhatu chekutsakatika.
   6. Chechitanhatu, kutadza kufunga nezvekutyisidzira sechikamu chemhinduro yenharaunda yese kune hyperthreat inoramba hunyanzvi hwekuongorora, nzira, uye hunyanzvi hwemagariro hwakaitwa nevanhu pamusoro pemireniyamu kuti vazvidzivirire kubva kunjodzi nenjodzi huru. Yakabvisawo mukana wedziviriro uye chengetedzo chikamu chepivoting, kugadzirisa, uye kutendeudzira kutarisisa kwayo uye yakakosha simba rebhiza kune hyper-mhinduro.

Kunyangwe shanduko yemamiriro ekunze ine ngozi ichiwanzotaurwa nezvayo se "tyisidziro huru;" Kutyisidzira kwevanhu hakuna kumbochinja zvachose.

PLAN E inopa imwe nzira: chikamu chekudzivirira chinongoerekana chashandura kutarisisa kwaro uye "masisitimu ekugadzirisa" tsigiro kure nefossil mafuta uye extractive resource sector. Inotsigira imwe "system kuchengetedza" basa: kuchengetedzwa kwehupenyu hwemapuraneti. Mukuita izvi, inopindirana neyakakoshera raison d'être yekudzivirira vanhu vayo nenzvimbo - muhondo yakakosha kwazvo yakambozivikanwa nevanhu.