NaJohn Horgan, The Stute, April 30, 2022
Nguva pfupi yadarika ndakabvunza makirasi angu ekutanga evanhu: Hondo ichazombopera here? Ndakatsanangura kuti ndakanga ndichifunga kupera kwehondo uye kunyange chityiso yehondo pakati pemarudzi. Ndakakurudzira vadzidzi vangu nekugovera "Hondo Inongova Chinhu Chekutanga” neanthropologist Margaret Mead uye “Nhoroondo Yemhirizhonga” nenyanzvi yepfungwa Steven Pinker.
Vamwe vadzidzi vanofungidzira, saPinker, kuti hondo inobva pakadzika midzi yekushanduka-shanduka. Vamwe vanobvumirana naMead kuti hondo “kugadzirwa” kwetsika uye kwete “chinodikanwa choupenyu.” Asi kunyangwe ivo vachiona hondo seinotangira kubva kune zvakasikwa kana kurera, vanenge vadzidzi vangu vese vakapindura: Aiwa, hondo haizomboperi.
Hondo haidzivisiki, vanodaro, nokuti vanhu vagara vaine makaro uye vanorwa. Kana kuti nekuti mauto, senge capitalism, yave chikamu chechigarire chetsika dzedu. Kana kuti nekuti, kunyangwe vazhinji vedu tichivenga hondo, vanopisa seHitler naPutin vachagara vachimuka, vachimanikidza vanhu vanoda rugare kuti varwe mukuzvidzivirira.
Maitiro evadzidzi vangu haandishamisi. Ndakatanga kubvunza kana hondo ichapera makore angangoita 20 apfuura, panguva yekupinda kweUS kuIraq. Kubva ipapo ndakabvunzurudza zviuru zvevanhu vemazera ese uye vezvematongerwo enyika muUS nekumwewo. Vanosvika vapfumbamwe muvanhu gumi vanoti hondo haidzivisiki.
Iyi fatalism inonzwisisika. IUS yanga iri muhondo isina kumira kubva 9/11. Kunyangwe mauto eAmerica akabva kuAfghanistan gore rapfuura mushure memakore makumi maviri ekuita zvechisimba, US ichiri kuchengetedza humambo hwemauto pasi rose kutenderera nyika nematunhu makumi masere. Kurwisa kweRussia kuUkraine kunosimbisa pfungwa yedu yekuti kana imwe hondo yapera, imwe inotanga.
Kufa kwehondo kwatekeshera mutsika dzedu. In kwedenga, nhevedzano yesci-fi yandiri kuverenga, mumwe munhu anotsanangura hondo se“kupenga” kunouya nekupfuura asi hakuperi. “Ndinotya kuti chero bedzi tiri vanhu,” anodaro, hondo “ichava nesu.”
Iyi fatalism haina kururama munzira mbiri. Kutanga, hazvina kururama empirically. Tsvagiridzo inosimbisa chirevo chaMead chekuti hondo, kure nekuve nekudzika midzi yekushanduka-shanduka, ndeye chinhu chichangobva kuitika chetsika. uye sezvakaratidzwa naPinker, hondo yakaderera zvikuru chifo cheHondo yeNyika II, pasinei zvapo nerwisano dzichangobva kuitika. Hondo pakati peFrance neGermany, vavengi vanovava kwemazana emakore, yave isingafungidzike sehondo pakati peUS neCanada.
Kufatalism kwakaipawo mutsika nekuti zvinobatsira kusimudzira hondo. Kana tichifunga kuti hondo haizomboperi, hatingamboedzi kuigumisa. Isu tinowanzo kuchengetedza mauto kuti adzivise kurwiswa uye kukunda muhondo pazvinongotanga.
Chimbofunga kuti vamwe vatungamiriri vari kuita sei kuhondo muUkraine. Mutungamiri Joe Biden vanoda kukwidziridza bhajeti repagore remauto reUS kusvika pamadhora mazana masere nemakumi matatu nematatu emadhora, danho rayo repamusoro zvachose. IUS inotoshandisa zvakapetwa katatu zvakapetwa pamauto ane zvombo seChina uye kagumi nembiri kupfuura Russia, sekureva kwe Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI. Mutungamiriri weEstonia, Kaja Kallas, ari kukurudzira dzimwe nyika dzeNATO kuti dziwedzere mari yadzinoshandisa muchiuto. "Dzimwe nguva nzira yakanakisa yekuwana rugare ndeyekuda kushandisa simba rehondo," anodaro mukati The New York Times.
Munyori wezvakaitika kare wemauto anonzi John Keegan akakanda kusahadzika padzidziso yerunyararo-kuburikidza-nesimba. Muna 1993 yake magnum opus Nhoroondo yeHondo, Keegan anotaura kuti hondo haibvi pa "munhu" kana zvikonzero zvehupfumi asi kubva ku "sangano rehondo pacharo." Kugadzirira hondo kunoita kuti zvive zvakanyanya pane zvishoma, maererano nekuongorora kwaKeegan.
Hondo zvakare inotsausa zviwanikwa, huchenjeri uye simba kubva kune mamwe matambudziko anokurumidza. Nyika dzakabatana dzinoshandisa mari inosvika madhora miriyoni maviri pagore pamauto, iyo US inotora inenge hafu yemari iyoyo. Mari iyoyo yakatsaurirwa kurufu nekuparadzwa panzvimbo yedzidzo, hutano hwehutano, hutsanana-simba rekutsvaga uye zvirongwa zvekurwisa urombo. Sezvisina purofiti World Beyond War zvinyorwa, hondo nemauto “zvinokuvadza zvakakomba zvakatipoteredza, zvinoparadza rusununguko rwevanhu, uye zvinopedza upfumi hwedu.”
Kunyange hondo yakarurama zvikuru haina kururama. Munguva yeHondo Yenyika II iyo US nevabatsiri vayo-vakomana vakanaka!-vakadonhedza mabhomba emoto nezvombo zvenyukireya pavanhuwo zvavo. IUS iri kushoropodza Russia, zvakakodzera, nekuuraya vanhu muUkraine. Asi kubvira 9/11, mauto eUS muAfghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria neYemen zvakakonzera kufa kwevanopfuura 387,072 vagari, sekureva kwe Mari yeHondo chirongwa paBrown University.
Kurwisa kweRussia kuUkraine kwafumura zvinotyisa zvehondo kuti vanhu vose vaone. Panzvimbo pokusimbisa zvombo zvedu mukupindura ngwavaira iyi, tinofanira kutaura pamusoro penzira yokusika nyika umo kurwisana kunodeura ropa kwakadaro kusingatongoitiki. Kupedza hondo hakuzove nyore, asi kunofanirwa kuve kwakakosha kwetsika, sekupedza uranda uye kukundwa kwevakadzi. Danho rekutanga rekugumisa hondo kutenda kuti zvinogoneka.
John Horgan anotungamira Center for Science Writings. Iyi koramu yakatorwa kubva kune yakaburitswa paScientificAmerican.com.
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