NaGuinness Madasamy, World BEYOND War, May 7, 2023
Sezvatinonyatsoziva, Russia yakatyisidzira kushandisa zvombo zvenyukireya kudzivirira dzimwe nyika kupindira nekupinda kweUkraine. Paivawo nemashoko ekuti Mutungamiri Putin akanga arayira kuti vagadzirire kuti vazoshandiswa kana pakaitika dambudziko. Kutyisidzirwa kwezvombo zvenyukireya zveRussia hakusi kuduku.
Chikonzero chekutya ndechekuti Russia ine nhamba huru yezvombo zvenyukireya pasi rose. Zvinonzi nyika pfumbamwe dzine zvombo zvenyukireya zvakawanda. Nyika idzi dzine zvombo zvenyukireya zvinoda kusvika 12,700. Asi Russia neUS vane 90% yezvombo zvenyukireya zvepasi. Pane izvi, Russia ine zvombo zvenyukireya 5,977, maererano nenhamba dzakaburitswa neFederation of American Scientists (FAS), sangano rinoronda matura ezvombo zvenyukireya. Zvine 1,500 4,477 zveizvi zvakapera kana kuti zvakamirira kuparadzwa. Pakati pevasara 1,588, FAS inotenda kuti 812 yakaiswa pazvombo zvehunyanzvi (576 pazvombo zvinokandwa, 200 pazvikepe zvepasi pemvura zvinokandwa, uye mazana maviri pazvigadziko zvebhomba). Zvombo zve977 uye zvimwe 1,912 zvombo zvakachengetwa.
Iyo FAS inofungidzira kuti US ichave ne5428 zvombo zvenyukireya. Sekureva kweFAS, 1,800 yezvese 5,428 zvombo zvenyukireya zvakaiswa muzvombo zvine hunyanzvi, 1,400 yacho yakaiswa pamissile yeBallistic, 300 pazvigadziko zvebhomba muUS, uye zana pane zvigadziko zvemhepo muEurope. 100 dzinofungidzirwa kuti dziri mudura.
Pamusoro pezvo, vanenge 1,720 vakapera basa vanochengetwa muhusungwa hweDhipatimendi reMagetsi uye vakamirira kuparadzwa, sekureva kwemishumo.
Mushure meRussia neUS, China ndiyo ine murwi mukuru wezvombo zvenyukireya, iine mazana matatu nemakumi mashanu ehondo dzenyukireya. China ine 350 land-launch ballistic missiles, 280 sea-launch ballistic missile uye 72 nuclear gravity mabhomba kuti vashandise. Asi kune zvakare mishumo yekuti China iri kukurumidza kuwedzera zvombo zvayo zvenyukireya. Maererano neshumo ye20 nePentagon, China inoronga kuwedzera zvombo zvayo zvenyukireya kusvika 2021 ne700 uye 2027 ne1,000.
Pamwe chete neUS, France inoonekwa seyakanyanya kujeka nyika nezvezvombo zvenyukireya. Murwi weFrance wezvombo zvenyukireya zvinenge 300 zvave zvimire kwemakore gumi apfuura. Aimbove Mutungamiriri François Hollande akataura muna 2015 kuti France yakatumira zvombo zvenyukireya pazvikepe zvepasi pemvura zvinokandwa uye masisitimu ekutakura eASMPA.
France yakanga ine zvombo zvenyukireya zvinenge 540 muna 1991-1992. Vaimbove mutungamiri weFrance, VaNicolas Sarkozy, vakati muna 2008 zvombo zvenyukireya zvino mazana matatu ihafu yeCold War.
Britain ine zvombo zvenyukireya zvinenge mazana maviri nemakumi maviri neshanu. Anenge zana nemakumi maviri eaya agadzirira kuiswa pazvombo zvinokandwa zvinokandwa nepasi pemvura. Iyo FAS yakafungidzira nhamba iyi zvichienderana neruzivo rwunowanikwa pachena uye hurukuro nevakuru veUK.
Hukuru chaihwo hwenyukireya hweUK hausati hwaburitswa, asi muna 2010 uyo aive Munyori Wezvekune dzimwe nyika panguva iyoyo, William Hague, akati huwandu hwakazara hweramangwana haufanire kudarika 225.
Pane fungidziro yakawanda pamusoro pehuwandu hwenyukireya hweIsrael, asi zvinotendwa kuve pakati pe75 ne400 zvombo zvenyukireya. Zvisinei, fungidziro yakavimbika zvikuru isingasviki zana. Maererano neFAS, kune zvombo zvenyukireya makumi mapfumbamwe. Asi Israeri haina kumbobvira yaedza, kuziviswa pachena, kana kunyatso kushandisa nyukireya.
North Korea yakafambira mberi zvikuru mukugadzira zvombo zvayo zvenyukireya. Asi veFAS vanopokana kuti North Korea yakakwanisa kugadzira chombo chenyukireya chinoshanda zvakakwana chinogona kuiswa pachombo chenguva refu. North Korea kusvika pari zvino yaita bvunzo nhanhatu dzenyukireya uye kuyedza mabhomba anokandwa.
Vanofungidzira kuti North Korea inogona kunge yakagadzira zvinhu zvinokwana kugadzira zvombo zvenyukireya makumi mana kusvika makumi mashanu, uye inogona kugadzira gumi kusvika makumi maviri.
Zvakadaro, FAS pachayo iri pachena kuti nhamba chaiyo yezvombo zvenyukireya zvine nyika imwe neimwe chakavanzika chenyika uye kuti nhamba dzaburitswa dzinogona kunge dzisiri dzechokwadi.
Zvinonziwo vatungamiri venyika mbiri idzi vari kutyira kuti kunetsana kwezvematongerwo enyika kweIndia nePakistan kunogona kuita hondo yenyukireya, izvo zviri kutyisa munhuwo zvake. India nePakistan dzine zvombo zvenyukireya zana nemakumi mashanu imwe neimwe. Pakazosvika 150, nhamba yavo inenge inosvika 2025 imwe neimwe. Zvinofungidzirwa kuti kana paine hondo pakati pavo, matani 250 kusvika 1.6 crore esoot (madiki kabhoni particles) anopararira mumhepo.
Zvombo zvenyukireya zvinokwanisa kuwedzera kupisa kwemhepo. Mushure memazuva mushure mekuputika kwavo, 20 kusvika 25% yakaderera mwaranzi yezuva inorova pasi. Nekuda kweizvozvo, pachava nekudzikira kwemadhigirii maviri kusvika ku2 mukupisa kwemuchadenga. 5 kusvika 5% yezvipenyu zvegungwa uye 15 kusvika 15% yemiti yevhu ichafa.
Zvinogona kusimbiswa kuti kana nyika mbiri idzi dzine mabhomba enyukireya ane simba re15 kilotons zvichienzaniswa nematani anopfuura zana anoshandiswa muHiroshima, 100 kusvika ku50 mamiriyoni evanhu vachafa kana vakashandisa zvombo zvenyukireya.
Russia, nyika ine simba renyukireya rekutanga pasi rose, yakavaka gwenya remagetsi enyukireya rekutanga pasi rose. Ngarava ine urefu hwemamita 140 uye yakafara mamita makumi matatu inogona kugadzira 30 megawatts emagetsi.
Nepo nharaunda yeArctic kazhinji iri mudambudziko rezvakatipoteredza, gwenya remagetsi enyukireya riri kuyangarara munharaunda yacho rava kumwe kutyisidzira. Masayendisiti akakurumbira anotya kuti kana gwenya remagetsi enyukireya rikakundikana munzira ipi neipi, zvaizoparira mamiriro ezvinhu akaipa muArctic kupfuura Chernobyl.
Uye hurumende yeRussia haigamuchire kuti kuwedzera kwemigodhi munharaunda yeArctic nerubatsiro rwechirimwa kuchawedzera kuomesa chiyero chedunhu.
Vatungamiri ava havabvume kuti nzira dzakatorwa neIndia, Pakistan, US neRussia mundima yenyukireya dzine kukanganisa kukuru kune zvakatipoteredza. Vatungamiri venyika vanofanira kuuya kuzogadzirisa maonero avo panyaya iyi.
Nepo nyika dziri kuedza kana kuyedza kuita masimba enyukireya, kufa nekuda kwenzara kuri kuramba kuchiwedzera, kunyanya munyika dzemuAfrica.
Nokudaro, ndinokurudzira vatungamiriri venyika kuti vaunganidze nhamba huru yemabhomba ezvokudya, ayo achabvisa nzara munyika dzenyu, panzvimbo pokuunganidza zvitsama zvikuru zvezvombo zvenyukireya. Zvakare ndinokumbira vatungamiriri vese vepasirese kusaina chibvumirano chekurambidza zvombo zvenyukireya kuchengetedza pasi redu sezvo tiine pasi rimwe chete.
