NaHyun Lee, Zvakashata, December 29, 2020
Kwemakumi emakore, vanogadzira mutemo veUS vakabvunza, "Tinoita sei kuti North Korea ipe zvombo zvenyukireya?" uye vauya vasina chinhu. Sezvo manejimendi weBiden ari kugadzirira kutora chigaro, pamwe yave nguva yekubvunza mumwe mubvunzo: "Tinosvika sei kurugare neNorth Korea?"
Heino dambudziko rakatarisana neWashington. Kune rimwe divi, iyo US haidi kubvumira North Korea kuve nezvombo zvenyukireya nekuti izvo zvinogona kukurudzira dzimwe nyika kuti dziite zvakafanana. (Washington yatove mubishi kuyedza kumisa chishuwo chenyukireya cheIran, ukuwo nhamba inowedzera yemanzwi ekuchengetedza muJapan neSouth Korea iri kudawo kuti iwane yavo nukes.)
IUS yakaedza kuita kuti North Korea ipe zvombo zvenyukireya kuburikidza nekumanikidza uye masanctions, asi nzira iyoyo yakadzorera kumashure, ichiomesa kutsunga kwaPyongyang kwekugadzira tekinoroji yenyukireya uye missile. North Korea inoti nzira chete yaichasiya zvombo zvenyukireya ndeyekuti US "ikasiya mutemo wayo une hasha," - mune mamwe mazwi, inotora matanho ekudzora maoko - asi kusvika parizvino, Washington haina kana danho kana kuratidza chero chinangwa kufambira kune icho chinangwa. Muchokwadi, hutongi hwaTrump hwakaramba huchienda kuitisa zvakabatana zvehondo zvidzitiro neSouth Korea uye yakasimbiswa kuita yezvirango zvakanangana neNorth Korea kunyangwe hazvo kuzvipira muSingapore kuita rugare naPyongyang.
Pinda Joe Biden. Chikwata chake chichagadzirisa sei dambudziko iri? Kudzokorora nzira imwechete yakatadza uye kutarisira mhedzisiro yakasiyana kungave - hazvo, iwe unoziva mafambiro anoita chirevo.
Vanachipangamazano vaBiden vari muchibvumirano chekuti hutongi hwaTrump "hwese kana chisipo" nzira - vachida kumberi kuti North Korea ipe zvombo zvayo zvese - yakundikana. Panzvimbo iyoyo, ivo vanokurudzira "mawoko ekudzora maoko": kutanga kuomesa North Korea plutonium uye uranium mashandiro emagetsi uyezve kutora matanho akawedzera akananga kuchinangwa chekupedzisira chekuzadza nyukireya.
Iyi ndiyo nzira yakasarudzika yemunyori wezvematongerwo enyika akasarudzwa Anthony Blinken, uyo anotsigira chibvumirano chepakati chekutora zvombo zvenyukireya zveNorth Korea kutenga nguva yekuita chibvumirano chenguva refu. Anoti isu tinofanirwa kutora vanobatana neChina mubhodhi kumanikidza North Korea:svina North Korea kuti uiise patafura yekutaurirana. ” "Tinofanira kubvisa nzira dzayo dzakasiyana siyana uye kuwana zviwanikwa," anodaro, uye anotsigira kuudza nyika dzine vashandi vekuNorth Korea kuti vadzosere kumba. Kana China ikasabatira pamwe, Blinken anoratidza kuti iyo US inoityisidzira neyakawedzera-yakatumirwa missile kudzivirira uye kurovedza kwemauto.
Chirevo chaBlinken chakatosiyana neicho chakakundikana maitiro ekare. Icho chichiri chirevo chekumanikidza uye kuzviparadzanisa kuenda kuchinangwa chekupedzisira chokubvisa zvombo muNorth Korea unilaterally - musiyano chete ndewekuti maneja weBiden anoda kutora nguva yakawanda kuti asvike ikoko. Mune ino kesi, North Korea inogona kuramba ichienderera kumberi pazvombo zvenyukireya uye kugona kwemissile. Kunze kwekunge iyo US yakachinja zvakanyanya chinzvimbo chayo, kukakavara patsva pakati peUS neNorth Korea hakudzivisike.
Panzvimbo pekuisa tarisiro pamaitiro ekuita kuti North Korea ipe ma nuks, kubvunza maitiro ekuwana runyararo rusingagumi muKorea kunogona kutungamira kune yakasarudzika uye yakakosha seti yemhinduro. Mapato ese - kwete North Korea chete - vane basa rekutora matanho ekuderedza maoko.
Mushure mezvose, iyo US ichine mauto makumi maviri nemasere muSouth Korea, uye kusvika nguva pfupi yadarika, yaigara ichiitisa zviito zvehondo zvakakura zvaisanganisira zvirongwa zvekuratidzira kwekutanga kuNorth Korea. Zvekare zvakabatanidzwa zvehondo zvidziro zvaisanganisira kubhururuka B-28,000 mabhomba, ayo akagadzirirwa kukanda mabhomba enyukireya uye anodhura vateresi veUS vangangoita $ 2 paawa kuti vabhururuke. Kunyangwe iyo US neSouth Korea vakadzora kudzidzira kwavo kubva kumusangano weTrump-Kim muna 130,000, Mutungamiriri wemauto eU.S. Korea, Gen. Robert B. Abrams, ane akadana Zvekutangazve kwemahombekombe ehondo akabatanidzwa.
Kana iyo Biden manejimendi ichienderera kumberi nehondo inodzika muna Kurume unotevera, zvaizomutsiridza nenjodzi yemauto kuKorea Peninsula uye zvinokuvadza chero mukana wekudyidzana neNorth Korea munguva pfupi iri kutevera.
Maitiro Ekuenda Kurunyararo paKorea Peninsula
Kuti kuderedze kutyisidzira kwehondo yenyukireya neNorth Korea uye kuchengetedza sarudzo yekutangazve hurukuro mune ramangwana, iyo Biden manejimendi inogona kuita zvinhu zviviri mumazuva ayo ekutanga zana: imwe, ramba uchimisa iyo huru-yakakura US-South Korea yakabatana hondo chibooreso; uye maviri, tanga ongororo yehurongwa hweNorth Korea mutemo unotanga nemubvunzo, "Tinosvika sei kurunyararo rwechigarire paKorea Peninsula?"
Chikamu chakakosha chekumisikidza runyararo rwechigarire kupedza Hondo yeKorea, iyo ine yakaramba isina kugadziriswa kwemakore makumi manomwe, uye kutsiva armistice (kugumisa kwenguva pfupi) nechibvumirano cherunyararo. Izvi ndizvo zvakabvumiranwa nevatungamiriri vaviri veKorea kuita mumusangano wavo wePanmunjom Summit muna2018, uye pfungwa iyi inotsigirwa nenhengo makumi mashanu neshanu dzeUS Congress dzakatsigira House Resolution 52, vachidaidzira kuti Hondo yeKorea ipere. Makore makumi manomwe ehondo isina kugadziriswa haina kungomutsa nhangemutange yezvombo isingagumi pakati pemapato ekurwisana, zvakare yakagadzira muganho usingapindike pakati pevaKorea vaviri uyo wakachengetedza mamirioni emhuri akapatsanurana. Chibvumirano cherunyararo chinosungira mapato ese kuita zvishoma nezvishoma nzira yekuisa maoko pasi chingaita mamiriro erunyararo kuti maKorea maviri atangezve kubatana pamwe nekubatanidza mhuri dzakaparadzana.
Vanhu vazhinji muUS vanofunga kuti North Korea haidi rugare, asi kutarisa kumashure kune zvayakataura zvakapfuura zvinoratidza zvimwe. Semuenzaniso, zvichitevera Hondo yeKorea, iyo yaive yapera muchiuto muna 1953, North Korea yaive chikamu cheGeneva Conference, yakasangana neVane Masimba - United States, yaimbova USSR, United Kingdom neFrance - kuzokurukura ramangwana. yeKorea. Sekureva kwemushumo wakadzikiswa neUthunywa hweUS, Gurukota rezvekunze kuKorea panguva iyoyo Nam Il akataura pamusangano uyu kuti "Basa guru riri kuzadzisa kubatana kweKorea nekushandura [chiuto] kuva kubatana kunogara murunyararo kweKorea nemitemo yedemokrasi." Akapomera US “pamusoro pemabasa eparutivi rweKorea pamwe nekuita sarudzo dzakasiyana pasi pe'kumanikidzwa nemapurisa. '” (Vakuru veUS, Dean Rusk naCharles Bonesteel vaive vapatsanura Korea nenzira yechi 38 muna 1945 vasina kubvunza maKorea. US yakanga yakurudzira sarudzo yakasarudzika kumaodzanyemba kunyangwe vazhinji maKorea vaishuvira Korea yakabatana, yakazvimirira.) Zvakadaro, Nam akaenderera mberi, "1953 armistice ikozvino yakavhura [nzira] yekubatana murunyararo." Akakurudzira kubviswa kwemauto ese ekunze mukati memwedzi mitanhatu uye "chibvumirano pasarudzo dzese-dzeKorea dzekugadza hurumende inomiririra nyika yese."
Musangano weGeneva zvinosuruvarisa kupera pasina chibvumirano paKorea, nekuda kwechikamu chikuru kupokana neUS kuchisarudzo chaNam. Nekudaro, iyo Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) pakati peKorea yakaomarara kuita muganho wepasi rese.
Chinzvimbo chekuchamhembe kweKorea - chekuti mauto anofanirwa kutsiviwa nechibvumirano cherunyararo icho "chinovhura nzira yekubatana murunyararo" - anga achienderana kwemakore makumi manomwe apfuura. Ndozvakakurudzirwa nesangano reSupreme People's Assembly yekuNorth Korea kuSeneti yeUS kumashure muna 70. Ndozvakange zvakanyorwa mutsamba yekuNorth Korea yakatumwa nevaimbove mutungamiri weSoviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev kumutungamiri weUS Ronald Reagan mumusangano wavo muWashington muna 1974. Izvi zvakare izvo zvakadzokororwa nevaNorth Korea mukukurukurirana kwavo kwenyukireya naBill Clinton naGeorge W. Bush manejimendi.
Vatungamiriri veBiden vanofanirwa kutarisa kumashure - uye vobvuma - zvibvumirano izvo US yatosaina neNorth Korea. IUS-DPRK Joint Communique (yakasainwa neClinton administration muna 2000), iyo Six-Party Joint Statement (yakasainwa neBush administration muna 2005) neSingapore Joint Statement (yakasainwa neMutungamiri Trump muna 2018) vese vane zvibodzwa zvitatu zvakafanana. : simbisa hukama hwakajairika, gadzira runyararo runyararo paKorea Peninsula uye nyukireya yeKorea Peninsula Chikwata cheBiden chinoda mepu yemugwagwa inoratidza zvakajeka hukama pakati pezvinangwa zvitatu zvakakosha izvi.
Mutungamiri weBiden anotarisana nenyaya dzakawanda dzinoda kuti dzionekwe nekukurumidza, asi kuona kuti hukama hweUS-North Korea haudzokere kumashure kune brinkmanship iyo yakatiunza kumucheto kwegomba rakadzika renyukireya mu2017 inofanira kuve pekutanga.
