Hondo yeUkraine Inotariswa kubva kuGlobal South

NaKrishen Mehta, Komiti yeAmerica yeChibvumirano cheUS-Russia, February 23, 2023

Muna Gumiguru 2022, inenge mwedzi misere mushure mekutanga kwehondo muUkraine, Yunivhesiti yeCambridge kuUK yakawiriranisa ongororo dzakabvunza vagari venyika zana nemakumi matatu nenomwe nezvemaonero avo kuMadokero, Russia, neChina. Zvakawanikwa mu chidzidzo chakabatanidzwa dzakasimba zvekuda kutarisisa kwedu.

• Pavanhu mabhiriyoni matanhatu nemazana matatu vanogara kunze kwekuMadokero, makumi matanhatu nenhanhatu kubva muzana vanonzwa zvakanaka kuRussia, uye makumi manomwe muzana vanonzwa zvakanaka kuChina.

• 75% yevakapindura muSouth Asia, 68% yevakapindura  muFrancophone Africa, uye 62% yevakabvunzwa muSoutheast Asia vanotaura kunzwa zvakanaka kuRussia.

• Maonero eruzhinji eRussia anoramba akanaka muSaudi Arabia, Malaysia, India, Pakistan, neVietnam.

Izvi zvakawanikwa zvakakonzera kushamisika uye kunyange kutsamwa kuMadokero. Zvakaomera vatungamiri vepfungwa dzekuMadokero kuti vanzwisise kuti zvikamu zviviri muzvitatu zvehuwandu hwepasi rose hazvisi kungoenderana neveMadokero mukukonana uku. Zvakadaro, ndinotenda kuti pane zvikonzero zvishanu nei Global South isiri kutora divi rekuMadokero. Ini ndinokurukura zvikonzero izvi mune pfupi chinyorwa pazasi.

1. Global South haitendi kuti nyika dzekuMadokero dzinonzwisisa kana kunzwira tsitsi matambudziko ayo.

Gurukota rinoona nezvekunze kweIndia, S. Jaishankar, rakakupfupisa mubvunzurudzo ichangobva kupfuura iyi: “Europe inofanira kukura kubva mumurangariro wokuti zvinetso zveEurope zvinetso zvenyika, asi zvinetso zvenyika hazvisi zvinetso zveEurope.” Nyika dzichiri kusimukira dzakatarisana nematambudziko akawanda, kubva mumashure medenda, kudhura kwechikwereti, uye dambudziko remamiriro ekunze riri kuparadza nharaunda dzadzo, kusvika kumarwadzo ehurombo, kushomeka kwechikafu, kusanaya kwemvura, uye mitengo yakakwira yemagetsi. Zvakadaro Madokero haana kumbopa basa remuromo kune kukomba kwezvizhinji zvezvinhu izvi, kunyangwe achisimbirira kuti Global South ijoine nayo mukuranga Russia.

Iyo Covid denda muenzaniso wakakwana. Zvisinei neGlobal South yakaramba ichiteterera kuti igovane pfuma yehungwaru pamajekiseni nechinangwa chekuponesa hupenyu, hapana nyika yekuMadokero yanga ichida kuzviita. Africa inoramba iri iyo kondinendi isina kubayiwa zvakanyanya pasi rose. Nyika dzemuAfrica dzine simba rekugadzira kugadzira mishonga yekudzivirira, asi pasina ruzivo rwakakosha, vanoramba vachivimba nekutenga kunze kwenyika.

Asi rubatsiro rwakabva kuRussia, China, neIndia. Algeria yakatanga chirongwa chekudzivirira muna Ndira 2021 mushure mekunge yawana batch yayo yekutanga yekudzivirira yeSputnik V yekuRussia. Egypt yakatanga majekiseni mushure mekuwana mushonga wekuChina weSinopharm panguva imwe chete, ukuwo South Africa yakatenga miriyoni yemadhora eAstraZeneca kubva kuSerum Institute of India. MuArgentina, Sputnik yakava musana wechirongwa chekudzivirira chenyika. Izvi zvese zvakaitika apo Madokero aishandisa mari yawo kutenga mamirioni emadhora pachine nguva, uye kazhinji achiaparadza kana apera. Mharidzo kuGlobal South yaive pachena - denda riri munyika dzenyu idambudziko renyu, kwete redu.

2. Nyaya dzenhoroondo: ndiani akamira kupi munguva yekoloni uye mushure mekusununguka?

Nyika zhinji dziri muLatin America, Africa, neAsia dzinoona hondo yeUkraine neimwe lenzi yakasiyana neyeMadokero. Vanoona masimba avo ekare echikoloni akaunganidzwa senhengo dzemubatanidzwa wekuMadokero. Mubatanidzwa uyu - kazhinji, nhengo dzeEuropean Union neNATO kana vadyidzani vepedyo veUS mudunhu reAsia-Pacific - vanoumba nyika dzakatendera Russia. Mukupesana, nyika zhinji muAsia, uye dzinenge nyika dzose dziri kuMiddle East, Africa, uye Latin America, dzakaedza kuramba dzichiwirirana ne zvose zviri zviviri Russia neWest, vachinzvenga zvirango zveRussia. Izvi zvingadaro here nokuti vanoyeuka nhoroondo yavo pakuguma kwekugamuchira kwemitemo yekoloni yekuMadokero, kushungurudzika kwavachiri kurarama nako asi iyo Madokero akanyanya kukanganwa?

Nelson Mandela aigarotaura kuti itsigiro yeSoviet Union, yehunhu nenyama, yakabatsira kukurudzira zvizvarwa zveSouth Africa kuti zvipidigura hutongi hwehudzvanyiriri. Nekuda kweizvi, Russia ichiri kutariswa nenzira yakanaka nenyika zhinji dzemuAfrica. Uye pakangowana rusununguko nokuda kweidzi nyika, yakanga iri Soviet Union yaidzitsigira, pasinei zvapo nepfuma yayo imene yakaganhurirwa. Dhamu reEgypt reAswan, rakapedzwa muna 1971, rakagadzirwa neMoscow-based Hydro Project Institute uye rakapihwa mari muchikamu chikuru neSoviet Union. Iyo Bhilai Steel Plant, imwe yemapurojekiti makuru ekutanga muIndia ichangobva kuzvimiririra, yakavambwa neUSSR muna 1959.

Dzimwe nyika dzakabatsirwawo nerutsigiro rwezvematongerwo enyika nehupfumi rwakapihwa neyaimbove Soviet Union, dzinosanganisira Ghana, Mali, Sudan, Angola, Benin, Ethiopia, Uganda, neMozambique. Musi waFebruary 18, 2023, pamusangano weAfrican Union muAddis Ababa, Ethiopia, gurukota rezvekunze kweUganda, Jeje Odongo, akataura izvi: "Takatorwa nechisimba uye takakanganwira avo vakatidzora. Iye zvino makoroni ari kutikumbira kuti tive vavengi veRussia, vasina kumbotitonga. Ndizvo here? Kwete kwatiri. Vavengi vavo vavengi vavo. Shamwari dzedu ishamwari dzedu.”

Zvakarurama kana zvisizvo, Russia yanhasi inoonekwa nenyika zhinji dziri muGlobal South semutsivi wepfungwa kune yaimbova Soviet Union. Vachiyeuka zvakanaka rubatsiro rweUSSR, vava kuona Russia nenzira yakasiyana uye inowanzova yakanaka. Tichifunga nhoroondo inorwadza yehukoloni, tingavapa mhosva here?

3. Hondo muUkraine inoonekwa neGlobal South kunyanya nezveramangwana reEurope pane remangwana renyika yose.

Nhoroondo yeHondo Yemashoko yakadzidzisa nyika dzichiri kusimukira kuti kupinda mumagakava makuru emasimba kune ngozi huru asi kunodzorera mibayiro mishoma, kana iripo. Nekuda kweizvozvo, vanoona iyo Ukraine proxy war seimwe inonyanya nezveramangwana reEuropean chengetedzo pane remangwana renyika yese. Kubva pamaonero eGlobal South, hondo yeUkraine inoita seinodhura kuvhiringa nyaya dzayo dzinonetsa. Izvi zvinosanganisira kukwira kwemitengo yemafuta edzimotokari, kukwira kwemitengo yechikafu, kukwira kwemitengo yezvikwereti, uye kuwedzera kwemitengo yezvinhu, izvo zvese zvakatemerwa zvirango zvekuMadokero kuRussia zvakatowedzera.

Ongororo ichangobva kuitika yakabudiswa neNature Energy inoti vanhu vanosvika mamiriyoni 140 vanogona kupinda muurombo hwakanyanya nekukwira kwemitengo yemagetsi kwakaonekwa mugore rapfuura. Mitengo yemagetsi yakakwira haingokonzerese mabhiri emagetsi - zvakare inotungamira kune kukwira kwemitengo pamwe chete nemaketani ekupa uye pakupedzisira pazvinhu zvevatengi, zvinosanganisira chikafu nezvimwe zvinodiwa. Uku kukwira kwemitengo kunokanganisa nyika dzichiri kusimukira zvakanyanya kupfuura kuMadokero.

Nyika dzekuMadokero dzinogona kutsigira hondo "chero nguva yazvinotora." Ivo vane zviwanikwa zvemari uye misika mikuru kuita kudaro, uye hongu ivo vanoramba vakaisa mari zvakanyanya mune ramangwana reEuropean chengetedzo. Asi Global South haina humbozha hwakafanana, uye hondo yeramangwana rekuchengeteka muEurope ine mukana wekuparadza kuchengetedzwa kwenyika yose. Global South inotya kuti nyika dzekumavirira hadzisi kutevedzera nhaurirano dzinogona kuunza hondo iyi kumagumo, kutanga nemukana wakarasika muna Zvita 2021, apo Russia yakaronga zvibvumirano zvezvekuchengetedza zveEurope izvo zvingadai zvakadzivirira hondo asi zvakarambwa. kuMadokero. Nhaurirano dzerunyararo muna Kubvumbi 2022 muIstanbul dzakarambwawo nevemadokero muchikamu kuti "dzishaye simba" Russia. Ikozvino, nyika yese - asi kunyanya nyika dzichiri kusimukira - iri kubhadhara mutengo wekupindirwa uko vezvenhau vekuMadokero vanoda kudaidza kuti "isina kucheneswa" asi iyo inogona kunge yakadziviswa, uye iyo Global South yagara ichiona seyenzvimbo kwete. kurwisana kwenyika dzakawanda.

4. Hupfumi hwenyika hahuchatongwi neAmerica kana kutungamirwa nenyika dzekumavirira. Iyo Global South ikozvino ine dzimwe sarudzo.

Nyika dzakati kuti muGlobal South dziri kuramba dzichiona remangwana radzo rakabatana nenyika dzisisiri muchikamu chekuMadokero chesimba. Kunyangwe maonero aya achiratidza maonero echokwadi ekuchinja kwesimba kana kufunga kweshuviro mubvunzo une simba, saka ngatitarisei mamwe mametrics.

Chikamu cheUS chekubuda kwepasirese chakadzikira kubva pamakumi maviri nerimwe muzana muna 21 kusvika pagumi neshanu muzana muna 1991, ukuwo chikamu cheChina chakakwira kubva pa15% kuenda pa2021% panguva imwe cheteyo. China ndiyo inonyanya kutengeserana mudyidzani kune mazhinji epasi, uye GDP yayo mukutenga simba parity yatopfuura iyo yeUS. Iyo BRICS (Brazil, Russia, China, India, neSouth Africa) yaive neGDP yakabatanidzwa muna 4 yemadhora makumi mana nemaviri emadhora, zvichienzaniswa nemadhora makumi mana nerimwe emadhora muG19 inotungamirwa neUS. Huwandu hwavo hwe2021 bhiriyoni hunodarika ka42 huwandu hwevanhu vakabatanidzwa hwenyika dzeG41, hunomira pamamiriyoni mazana manomwe.

BRICS haisi kutemera Russia zvirango kana kupa zvombo kudivi rinopikisa. Russia ndeimwe yevatengesi vakuru vesimba uye chikafu cheGlobal South, nepo China yeBelt and Road Initiative ichiramba iri mupi mukuru wemari nezvivakwa zvezvivakwa. Kana zvasvika pamari, chikafu, simba, uye zvivakwa, Global South inofanirwa kuvimba zvakanyanya neChina neRussia kupfuura kuMadokero. Global South iri kuonawo sangano reShanghai Cooperation Organisation richiwedzera, nyika dzakawanda dzichida kupinda muBRICS, uye dzimwe nyika dzava kutengeserana nemari dzinodzibvisa padhora, Euro, kana kumavirira. Zvichakadaro, dzimwe nyika muEurope dziri panjodzi yekubvisa maindasitiri nekuda kwemitengo yemagetsi yakakwira. Izvi zvinoratidza kusamira zvakanaka kwehupfumi kuMadokero kwanga kusiri pachena hondo isati yatanga. Sezvo nyika dzichiri kusimukira dzine musengwa wokuisa fariro dzavagari vadzo dzimene pakutanga, kunoshamisa here kuti dzinoona nguva yemberi yadzo yakabatanidzwa zvikuru nenyika dziri kunze kweMadokero?

5. Iyo "mitemo-based international order" iri kurasikirwa nekuvimbika uye mukuderera.

Iyo yakashongedzwa "mitemo-yakavakirwa pasi rose kurongeka" ndiyo nhare yekusununguka mushure meHondo Yenyika II, asi nyika zhinji muGlobal South dzinoiona seyakatorwa neWest uye yakatemerwa unilaterally kune dzimwe nyika. Ishoma kana dzisiri nyika dzekuMadokero dzakambosaina kune iyi odha. Maodzanyemba haapikisane nemirairo-yakavakirwa kurongeka, asi kune zvirimo zvemitemo iyi seyakaumbwa neWest.

Asi munhu anofanirawo kubvunza, ko iyo mitemo-yakavakirwa pasi rose kurongeka inoshanda kunyangwe kuMadokero?

Kwemakumi emakore ikozvino, vazhinji muGlobal South vaona Madokero seane nzira nenyika pasina hanya zvakanyanya nekutamba nemitemo. Nyika dzinoverengeka dzakapindirwa pamadiro, kazhinji pasina mvumo yeUnited Nations Security Council. Izvi zvinosanganisira yaichimbova Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, neSyria. Nyika idzodzo dzakarwiswa kana kuparadzwa pasi pe“mitemo” ipi, uye hondo idzodzo dzaitsamwiswa here kana kuti dzisina kutsamwiswa? Julian Assange ari kuomerwa mutirongo uye Ed Snowden anoramba ari muhutapwa, zvese nekuve nehushingi (kana kuti pamwe hushingi) hwekufumura chokwadi chiri kumashure kweizvi nezvimwe zviito.

Kunyange nanhasi, zvirango zvakatemerwa nyika dzinopfuura makumi mana nenyika dzekuMadokero zvinoisa kuoma kukuru nekutambura. Pasi pemutemo upi wepasi rose kana kuti "mitemo-based order" iyo nyika dzekuMadokero dzakashandisa simba rayo rehupfumi kuisa zvirango izvi? Nei zvinhu zveAfghanistan zvichiri chando mumabhanga ekuMadokero apo nyika yakatarisana nenzara nenzara? Nei goridhe reVenezuela richiri kubatwa muUK nepo vanhu veVenezuela vachigara panhanho dzekurarama? Uye kana kufumurwa kwaSy Hersh kuri kwechokwadi, pasi pei 'mitemo-based order' iyo West yakaparadza mapaipi eNord Stream?

Kuchinja kweparadigm kunoratidzika kunge kuri kuitika. Tiri kubva kuWestern-inodzorwa kuenda kune imwe nyika ine nyika dzakawanda. Hondo muUkraine yaita kuti zvive pachena kusiyana kwepasirese kuri kutyaira shanduko iyi. Zvimwe nekuda kwenhoroondo yayo, uye pamwe nekuda kwemamiriro ehupfumi ari kubuda, Global South inoona nyika ine mativi mazhinji semhedzisiro inodiwa, iyo iyo izwi rayo rinonyanya kunzwika.

Mutungamiri Kennedy vakapedzisa kutaura kwavo kuAmerican University muna 1963 nemashoko anotevera: “Tinofanira kuita chikamu chedu kuvaka nyika ine runyararo umo vasina simba vakachengeteka uye vakasimba vari vakarurama. Isu hatisi vasina rubatsiro pamberi pebasa iroro kana vasina tariro yekubudirira kwaro. Tine chivimbo uye tisingatyi, tinofanira kushanda nesimba takananga kune imwe nzira yerunyararo. " Zano iroro rorugare ndiro rakanga riri denho pamberi pedu muna 1963, uye richiri denho nokuda kwedu nhasi. Mazwi erunyararo, kusanganisira aya eGlobal South, anoda kunzwikwa.

Krishen Mehta inhengo yeBhodi yeAmerican Committee yeUS Russia Accord, uye Senior Global Justice Fellow paYale University.