Iyo US Ikudzoreredza Yayo Nhema Dzenhema NezveI Iraq Ku Target Iran

NaNicolas JS Davies, January 30, 2020

Makore gumi nematanhatu mushure mekupinda muUS Iraq muIraq, vanhu vazhinji vekuAmerican vanonzwisisa kuti yaive hondo isiri pamutemo yakavakirwa panhema pamusoro pezvisiri "zvombo zvekuparadza vanhu vazhinji." Asi hurumende yedu zvino yave kutyisidzira kutikokera kuhondo yeIran ine hwakafanana. "Nhema huru" nezve chisipo chezvombo zvenyukireya zvombo chirongwa, kwakavakirwa mune zvematongerwo enyika kungwara kubva kuzvikwata zvakafanana zveCIA zvakaburitsa mawebhu enhema kuratidza chikonzero chekupinda muUS Iraq mu2003. 

Muna 2002-3, vakuru veUS uye makambani enhau emakambani akadzokorora akadzokorora kuti Iraq yakanga iine zvombo zvezvombo zvekuparadza zvakakomba kutyisidzira nyika. ICIA yakaburitsa reams yehungwaru hwenhema kutsigira kufora kuenda kuhondo, uye cherry-yakatora nhoroondo dzinonyengedza dzeMunyori weNyika. Colin Powell kuunza UN Security Council muna Kukadzi 5th 2003. Muna Zvita 2002, Alan Foley, mukuru weCIA Weapons Intelligence, Nonproliferation and Arms Control Center (WINPAC), akaudza vashandi vake, "Kana mutungamiri wenyika achida kuenda kuhondo, basa redu ndere kutsvaga ungwaru hwekumubvumira kudaro."

Paul Pillar, mukuru weCIA aive weNational Intelligence Officer weEastern East neSouth Asia, akabatsira kugadzirira gwaro rine mapeji makumi maviri nemashanu rakapihwa kunhengo dzeCongress se "pfupiso" yeNational Intelligence Estimate (NIE) pa Iraki. Asi iro gwaro rakanyorwa mwedzi isati yasvika iyo NIE iyo yainoti ipfupikise uye yaive nezvakanaka zvirevo izvo zvaisavepo kuwanikwa muNIE, senge iyo iyo CIA yaiziva yenzvimbo dzinosvika mazana mashanu nemashanu muIraq umo makemikari nemakemikari zvombo zvakachengetwa. Mazhinji maNhengo anoverenga chete pfupiso yekunyepedzera, kwete iyo chaiyo NIE, uye vakavhotera vasingafungi zvehondo. Sezvo Shongwe yakazoreururwa kumaPBS Frontline, "Chinangwa chaive kusimbisa nyaya yekuenda kuhondo neruzhinji rweAmerica. Zvakakodzera here kuti nharaunda yehungwaru ibudise mapepa nechinangwa icho? Handifunge kudaro, uye ndinozvidemba kuti ndakava nebasa. ”

WINPAC yakagadzwa muna 2001 kutsiva CIA's Nonproliferation Center kana NPC (1991-2001), uko vashandi vevatsoropodzi zana veCIA vakaunganidza humbowo hunogoneka hwezvombo zvenyukireya, zvemakemikari uye zvombo zvehutachiona kutsigira US ruzivo rwehondo, masanctions uye pakupedzisira hutongi shanduko. mazano pamusoro peIraq, Iran, North Korea, Libya nevamwe vavengi veUS.

WINPAC inoshandisa iyo satellite yeUS, satellite kuongorora uye epasi rese spy network kugadzira zvinhu zvekupa kune veUN masangano seUNSCOM, UNMOVIC, Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) uye International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), vari kupomerwa mhosva kutarisa kusapararira kwezvombo zvenyukireya, zvemakemikari uye zvombo. Izvo zvinhu zveCIA zvakachengeta ma agency aya uye vaongorori vakabatikana nerukova rusingaperi rwemagwaro, mifananidzo yesatelite uye zvirevo zvevatapwa kweanoda kusvika makore makumi matatu. Asi kubvira Iraq payakaparadza zvese zvombo zvakarambidzwa muna 30, havana kuwana humbowo hunosimbisa kuti Iraq kana Iran yakatora matanho ekuwana zvombo zvenyukireya, zvemakemikari kana zvoutachiona.

UNMOVIC neIAEA vakaudza UN Security Council muna2002 kuti havagone kuwana humbowo hwekutsigira vachipomerwa mhosva yekuUnited States yekugadzira zvombo zvisiri pamutemo. IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei akafumura maCIA Niger yero keke gwaro sekunyepedzera mune imwe nguva yemaawa. Kuzvipira kwaElBaradei kurusununguko uye kusasarura kwesangano rake kwakakunda ruremekedzo rwepasi rose, uye iye pamwe nesangano rake vakapiwa mubatanidzwa Mutengo Worugare weNobel muna 2005.    

Kunze kwekunyepedzera chaiko uye nechinangwa nemaune humbowo kubva kumapoka evatapwa saAhmad Chalabi Iraqi National Congress (INC) uye Iranian Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK), zvizhinji zvezvinhu izvo CIA nevabatsiri vayo zvakapa kumasangano eUN zvakabatanidza hunyanzvi hwekushandisa-huviri, hunogona kushandiswa muzvirongwa zvezvombo zvakarambidzwa asi zvakare hune imwe nzira inoshandiswa zviri pamutemo. Basa rakawanda reIAEA muIran rave rekuona kuti chimwe nechimwe chezvinhu izvi chave kuchishandiswa nerunyararo kana kugadziridza zvombo kwete panzvimbo yechirongwa chenyukireya. Asi sezvazvakaita muIraq, kuunganidzwa kweusinga tsanangurike, humbowo husina kutsigirwa hwechirongwa chinokwanisika chezvombo zvenyukireya chakashanda sechombo chakakosha chezvematongerwo enyika kugutsa vezvenhau neruzhinji kuti panofanirwa kunge paine chinhu chakasimba kuseri kwehutsi nemirazi.    

Semuenzaniso, muna 1990, iyo CIA yakatanga kubata Telex meseji kubva kuSharif University kuTehran neIran yeFizikiki Yekutsvagisa Center nezve maodha emagineti emagetsi, fluoride nemidziyo yekubata fluoride, muchina wekuyera, mutserendende wemagetsi nemidziyo yekutsvaira, zvese izvi zvinogona kushandiswa mukuvandudza uranium. Kwemakore gumi nemanomwe akatevera, iyo CIA's NPC neWINPAC vakaona aya maTelexes sehumwe humbowo hwavo hwakasimba hwechirongwa chakavanzika chezvombo zvenyukireya muIran, uye vakadanwa saizvozvi nevakuru vakuru veUS. Yakanga isiri iyo kusvika 17-2007 apo hurumende yeIran yakazotevera zvinhu zvese izvi paSharif University, uye vaongorori veIAEA vakakwanisa shanyira yunivhesiti uye simbisa kuti ivo vari kushandiswa pakutsvagisa uye kudzidzisa, sezvakaudzwa Iran yavo.

Mushure mekupinda kweUSA muIraq muna 2003, basa reIAEA kuIran rakaenderera, asi hutungamiriri hwese hwakapihwa neCIA nevabatsiri vayo zvakaratidza kunge zvakagadzirwa, zvisina mhosva kana zvisingawirirane. Muna 2007, masangano ehungwaru eUnited States akaburitsa nyowani yeNational Intelligence Estimate (NIE) kuIran kwavakabvuma kuti Iran yakanga isina chirongwa chemaoko enyukireya. Kuburitswa kwe 2007 NIE yaive danho rakakosha mukudzivirira Hondo yeUS kuIran. Sekunyora kwakaita George W Bush memoirs ake, "… Mushure meNIE, ndingazogona sei kutsanangura kushandisa mauto kuparadza zvivakwa zvenyukireya zvenyika inonzi nevasori haina hurongwa hwezvombo zvenyukireya?"  

Asi kunyangwe kushayikwa kwehumbowo hunosimbisa, iyo CIA yakaramba kushandura "ongororo" kubva kune yayo 2001 ne2005 NIEs yekuti Iran ingangodaro yaive nehurongwa hwezvombo zvenyukireya pamberi pa2003. Izvi zvakasiya musuwo wakazaruka wekuenderera mberi kwekushandisa zvirevo zveWMD, kuongorora uye masanctions sezvombo zvine simba zvematongerwo enyika muhutongi hweUS shanduko mutemo kuenda kuIran.

Muna 2007, UNMOVIC yakaburitsa a Kuwedzera kana mushumo wekupedzisira wezvidzidzo zvakadzidzwa kubva mukukanganisa muIraq. Chimwe chidzidzo chakakosha ndechekuti, "Kuzvimiririra kwakazara chinhu chinodiwa kusangano rekuongorora reUN," kuitira kuti basa rekuongorora risazoshandiswa, "kungave kutsigira mamwe ajenda kana kuchengetedza bato rakaongororwa mukusasimba kwekusingaperi." Chimwe chidzidzo chakakosha ndechekuti, "Kuratidza zvakashata ndiyo nzira yekutsungirira matambudziko uye kuongororwa kusingaperi."

The 2005 Komisheni yaRobb-Silberman kukundikana kwehungwaru hweUS muIraq kwakasvika pamhedzisiro yakafanana, senge iyo, "… vaongorori vakanyatsochinja mutoro wehumbowo, vachida humbowo hwekuti Iraq haina zvirongwa zvinoshanda zveWMD pane kuda humbowo hwekuti varipo. Nepo hurongwa hweUS hwaive hwekuti Iraq yaive nebasa rekuratidza kuti haina kurambidza zvirongwa zvezvombo, mutoro weIntelligence Community wehumbowo waifanirwa kunge wakanyanya ... Nokusimudza mutoro wehupupuriro wakakwira kwazvo, vaongorori vakamisikidza nzira yekuongorora kusimbisa yezvavanofunga pakutanga - kuti Iraq yakanga iine zvirongwa zvinoshanda zveWMD. ”

Mubasa rayo kuIran, iyo CIA yakaenderera mberi nekukanganisa kuongorora uye maitiro anoonekwa neUNMOVIC Compendium uye neRobb-Silberman mushumo weIraq. Iko kumanikidzwa kwekuburitsa hunyanzvi mune zvematongerwo enyika hunotsigira zvirevo zveUS zvinoramba zviripo nekuti ndiyo basa reuori kuti masangano ehungwaru eUS anotamba mumutemo weUS, kupenengura pane dzimwe hurumende, kuita coups, kupomhodza nyika uye kugadzira hunyanzvi hwezvematongerwo enyika uye hunyengeri kuti vagadzire mabatirwo ehondo. 

Sangano repamutemo renyika rezvehungwaru raizopa ongororo yehungwaru iyo vagadziri vemitemo vangashandisa sehwaro hwesarudzo dzemitemo. Asi, sekureva kweUNMOVIC Compendium, hurumende yeUS haina hunhu mukushandisa zvisina kufanira pfungwa yehungwaru nemasimba emasangano epasirese akaita seIAEA "kutsigira dzimwe ajenda," kunyanya chishuwo chayo chekuchinja hutongi munyika dzepasi rose.

"Dzimwe chirongwa" cheUS kuIran chakawana mubatsiri akakosha apo Mohamed ElBaradei akarega basa kubva kuIAEA muna2009, akatsiviwa naYukiya Amano wekuJapan. A State Dhipatimendi tambo kubva munaChikunguru 10, 2009 yakaburitswa naWikileaks yakatsanangura VaAmano se "murume akasimba" kuUS zvichibva pa "hukuru hwakanyanya hwekubatana pakati pezvaanokoshesa pamwe nehurongwa hwedu kuIAEA." Chiitiko ichi chakaratidza kuti US inofanira "kuumba mafungiro aAmano zvirongwa zvake zvisati zvasangana neIAEA Secretariat Bureaucracy." Munyori wememo aive Geoffrey Pyatt, uyo akazowana mukurumbira wepasirese semumiriri weUS kuUkraine akafumurwa pazvakabuda pachena. kurekodhwa kuronga mubatanidzwa wa2014 muUkraine neMunyori Munyori weMatunhu Victoria Nuland.

Kutonga kwaObama kwakapedza nguva yavo yekutanga kutevera kwakundikana "Mbiri-track" nzira kune Iran, umo dhipatimendi rayo rakakanganiswa nekukoshesa kukuru kwayakapa kune yakafanana nzira yekuwedzera zvirango zveUN. IBrazil neTurkey pavakapa Iran nehurongwa hwechibvumirano chenyukireya chakange chataurwa neUS, Iran yakazvibvuma. Asi iyo US yakaramba izvo zvakange zvatanga sekukumbira kweUS nekuti, panguva iyoyo, ingadai yakagadzirisa kuyedza kwayo kukurudzira UN Security Council kuti iise zvirango zvakaomarara kuIran. 

Sekutaura kwakaita mukuru weDhipatimendi reHurumende akaudza munyori Trita Parsi, dambudziko chairo raive rekuti US haina kutora "Hongu" mhinduro. Yakanga iri chete temu yechipiri yaObama, mushure mekunge John Kerry atsiva Hillary Clinton saMunyori weHurumende, ndipo US payakazotora "Hongu" mhinduro, zvichitungamira kuJCPOA pakati peIran, US nemamwe masimba makuru muna 2015. Saka yakanga isiri masanctions akatsigirwa neUS akaunza Iran patafura, asi kutadza kwezvirango zvakaunza US patafura.  

Zvakare muna 2015, iyo IAEA yakapedza basa rayo pa “Nyaya Dzakanaka” nezve zviitiko zvekare zvine hukama nenyukireya zveIran. Pane yega yega nyaya yekutsvagisa-kushandisa kana tekinoroji kupinza, IAEA haina kuwana humbowo hwekuti dzaive dzakabatana nezvombo zvenyukireya pane kungoita zvechiuto kana zvechivanhu. Pasi pehutungamiriri hwaAmano nedzvinyiriro yeUS, IAEA ichiri "kuyedza" kuti "zviitiko zvakasiyana zvine chekuita nekugadzirwa kwechombo chenyukireya chakaitwa muIran kusati kwapera 2003," asi izvo "zviitiko izvi hazvina kufambira mberi zvichikwanisika zvidzidzo uye kuwanikwa kwehunhu hwakakodzera hwehunyanzvi uye kugona. ”

JCPOA ine rutsigiro rwakakura muWashington. Asi gakava rezvematongerwo enyika reUS pamusoro peJCPOA rakanyatso kufuratira mhedzisiro yebasa reIAEA muIran, chinokanganisa chikamu cheCIA mairi uye nekuwanda kwakaita iyo CIA kudzokorora kusarongeka kwenzvimbo, kusimbisa kwekufungidzira, kunyepedzera, kuita zvematongerwo enyika. uye huori ne "mamwe ajenda" ayo aifanirwa kugadziriswa kudzivirira chero kudzokororwa kweiyo WMD fiasco muIraq. 

Vezvematongerwo enyika vanotsigira JCPOA ikozvino vanoti yakamisa Iran kuwana zvombo zvenyukireya, nepo avo vanopikisa JCPOA vachiti ichabvumidza Iran kuzviwana. Ivo vaviri vakakanganisa nekuti, sekugumisa kwakaita IAEA uye kunyangwe Mutungamiri Bush vakabvuma, Iran haina chirongwa chinoshanda chezvombo zvenyukireya. Zvakaipisisa izvo IAEA inogona kutaura zviri pachena ndezvekuti Iran inogona kunge yakaita ongororo dzakanangana nezvombo zvenyukireya imwe nguva pamberi pa2003 - asi zvekare, pamwe haina kudaro.

Mohamed ElBaradei akanyora mune memoir yake, Iyo Zera Rekunyengera: Nuclear Diplomacy muNyengori Nguva, kuti, kana Iran yakamboita kunyangwe nekutsvagisa zvombo zvenyukireya, aive nechokwadi chekuti yaive panguva yeHondo yeIran neIraq chete, iyo yakazopera muna 1988, apo iyo US nemubatanidzwa wayo akabatsira Iraq kuuraya vanosvika zviuru zana zveIran vane zvombo zvemakemikari. Dai fungidziro dzaElBaradei dzaive dzechokwadi, dambudziko reIran kubva panguva iyoyo raizove rekuti raisakwanisa kubvuma basa iri muma100,000 risina kusangana nekusavimbana kukuru uye ruvengo kubva kuUS nemubatanidzwa wayo, nekuisa njodzi kuIraq. 

Zvisinei nekusava nechokwadi pamusoro pezviito zveIran muma1980, danidziro yeUS kurwisa Iran yakatyora iyo zvidzidzo zvinonyanya kukosha Vakuru veUS neUN vanoti vakadzidza kubva ku fiasco pamusoro peIraq. Iyo CIA yakashandisa fungidziro dzayo dzinenge dzisina hwaro pamusoro pezvombo zvenyukireya muIran senzira dzekunyepedzera "kutsigira dzimwe ajenda" uye "kuchengeta bato rakaongororwa munzvimbo yekushaya simba zvachose," chaizvo UNMOVIC Kuwedzera yambiro nezvekuitazve kune imwe nyika.

MuIran sekuIraq, izvi zvakakonzera hutongi husiri pamutemo hwe utsinye masanctions, pasi pazvo zviuru zvevana zviri kufa kubva kuzvirwere zvinodzivirirwa uye kushaya chikafu zvinovaka muviri, uye nekutyisidzira kweimwezve zvisiri pamutemo hondo yeUS ingazadza Middle East nepasi rose mumhirizhonga yakatokura kupfuura iyo CIA yakagadzira kuIraq.