Iyo US neUK's Submarine Deal Inoyambuka Nuclear Red Lines neAustralia

By Prabir Purkayastha, World BEYOND War, Kurume 17, 2023

Chibvumirano chenguva pfupi yapfuura cheAustralia, US, uye UK $ 368 bhiriyoni pakutenga zvombo zvenyukireya zvakanzi naPaul Keating, aimbove mutungamiriri weAustralia. “Chibvumirano chakaipisisa munhoroondo yose.” Inopa Australia kutenga ngarava dzepasi pemvura dzine zvombo zvenyukireya dzinozounzwa mukutanga kwema2040. Izvi zvichange zvichibva pamagadzirirwo matsva ekugadzira nyukireya achiri kuzogadzirwa neUK. Zvichakadaro, kutanga kubva kuma2030, "yakamirira kubvumidzwa kubva kuUS Congress, United States inotarisira kutengesa Australia matatu ekirasi yeVirginia ngarava dzepasi pemvura, ine mukana wekutengesa kusvika kune maviri mamwe kana zvichidikanwa” (Trilateral Australia-UK-US Kudyidzana paNuclear-Powered Submarines, Kurume 13, 2023; kusimbisa yangu). Zvinoenderana neruzivo, zvinoita sekunge chibvumirano ichi chinopa Australia kutenga kubva kuUS zvisere zvitsva zvepasi penyukireya, kuti zviunzwe kubva kuma2040 kusvika pakupera kwema2050. Kana nyukireya dzepasi pemvura dzaive dzakakosha kuchengetedzeka kweAustralia, kwairi yakatyora chibvumirano chayo chepasi pegungwa chedhiziri neFrance, chibvumirano ichi hachipi mhinduro dzechokwadi.

Kune avo vanga vachitevera nyaya dzekuwanda kwenyukireya, chibvumirano chinosimudza mureza mutsvuku wakasiyana. Kana submarine nuclear reactor tekinoroji uye zvombo-giredhi (yakanyanya kupfumiswa) uranium yakagovaniswa neAustralia, Kutyorwa kweNuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) iyo Australia inosaina sesimba risiri renyukireya. Kunyangwe kupihwa kwemareactor enyukireya akadai neUS neUK kungave kutyora kweNPT. Izvi zvinodaro kunyangwe ngarava dzepasi pemvura dzakadaro dzisina kutakura zvombo zvenyukireya asi zvakajairika sezvakataurwa muchibvumirano ichi.

Saka nei Australia yakasiya kondirakiti yayo neFrance, yaive yekutenga ngarava gumi nembiri dzedhiziri kubva France pamutengo we67 bhiriyoni, chikamu chiduku chemari yayo yakawanda $368 bhiriyoni inobata neUS? Chii chinowana, uye chii chinowana iyo US nekutsamwisa France, imwe yepedyo NATO vanobatana?

Kuti tinzwisise, tinofanira kuona kuti US inotarisa sei geostrategy, uye kuti Maziso mashanu-US, UK, Canada, Australia, neNew Zealand-anopinda sei mumufananidzo uyu mukuru. Zviri pachena, US inotenda kuti musimboti wemubatanidzwa weNATO iUnited States, United Kingdom, neCanada yeAtlantic neUnited States, United Kingdom, neAustralia yeIndo-Pacific. Vamwe vese vanobatana navo, NATO vanobatana muEurope neJapan neSouth Korea muEast neSouth Asia, vari kutenderedza iyi Eyes Eyes core. Ndosaka United States yaida kugumbura France kuti itengese chibvumirano neAustralia.

Chii chinopihwa neUS kubva muchibvumirano ichi? Pachivimbiso chezvikepe zvisere zvenyukireya izvo zvichapihwa kuAustralia makumi maviri kusvika mana emakore pasi pemutsara, US inowana mukana kuAustralia kuti ishandiswe sechigadziko chekutsigira ngarava dzayo dzehondo, mauto emhepo, uye kunyange mauto eUS. The mazwi anoshandiswa neWhite House ndeaya, "Kare muna 2027, United Kingdom neUnited States vakaronga kumisa kuvapo kwekutenderera kweimwe UK Astute class submarine uye kusvika kune ina US Virginia class submarines kuHMAS. Stirling pedyo nePerth, Western Australia.” Mashandisirwo emazwi okuti "kuvapo kwekutenderera" kupa Australia shizha remuonde kuti haisi kupa US base base yehondo, sezvo izvo zvinotyora chinzvimbo cheAustralia chenguva refu chekusave nemabhesi ekunze paivhu rayo. Zviripachena, zvese zvimiro zvekutsigira zvinodikanwa pakutenderera kwakadaro ndizvo zvine mauto ekunze, saka anozoshanda semabhesi eUS.

Mubatanidzwa weAUKUS ndiani? Izvi zvakajeka mune zvose zvinyorwa pamusoro penyaya uye zvakataurwa nevatungamiri vose veAUKUS: iChina. Mune mamwe mazwi, ichi chidimbu chemutemo weChina neSouth China Sea uye Taiwanese Strait senzvimbo dzakakwikwidziridzwa dzemakungwa. Kuisa ngarava dzeUS dzemugungwa kusanganisira nyukireya dzepasi pemvura dzakashongedzerwa nezvombo zvenyukireya kunoita kuti Australia ive nyika yepamberi muzvirongwa zveUS zvekutakura China. Pamusoro pezvo, zvinokonzeresa kudzvanyirira nyika zhinji dzeSoutheast Asia dzinoda kusabuda mumakwikwi akadai eUS neChina ari kuitwa muSouth China Sea.

Nepo kukurudzira kweUS kunyora Australia senyika yekumberi vachipokana neChina kunonzwisisika, chinonetsa kunzwisisa ndechekuti Kuwana kweAustralia kubva pakurongeka kwakadaro. China haisiriyo chete mutengesi mukuru wezvinhu zveAustralia, asiwo mutengesi wayo mukuru. Mune mamwe mazwi, kana Australia iri kunetseka nezve chengetedzo yekutengeserana kwayo kuburikidza neSouth China Sea kubva kukurwisa kweChina, chikamu chikuru chekutengeserana uku chiri neChina. Saka nei China ingapenga zvekuda kurwisa kutengeserana kwayo neAustralia? KuUS zvine musoro kuwana kondinendi yese, Australia, kuti itore mauto ayo padyo neChina pane 8,000-9,000 mamaira kure muUS Kunyangwe ichitova nemabhesi muHawaii neGuam muPacific Ocean, Australia neJapan inopa. mapoinzi maviri, imwe kuchamhembe uye imwe kumaodzanyemba mudunhu rePacific Ocean yekumabvazuva. Mutambo uyu mutambo wechinyakare wekuchengetera zvinhu, uyo wakatamba neUS neNATO, Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO), uye Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation (SEATO) mibatanidzwa yemauto mushure meHondo Yenyika II.

Dambudziko riripo neUS nhasi nderekuti kunyangwe nyika dzakaita seIndia, dzine nyaya dzadzo neChina, hadzisi kunyorerana neUS mumubatanidzwa wemauto. Kunyanya, seUS ikozvino muhondo yehupfumi ine nhamba yenyika, kwete Russia neChina chete, dzakadai seCuba, Iran, Venezuela, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, neSomalia. Nepo India yaida kupinda muQuad — iyo US, Australia, Japan, neIndia — uye kutora chikamu mumitambo yemauto, yakadzokera kubva kuQuad kuita mubatanidzwa wemauto. Izvi zvinotsanangura kumanikidzwa kweAustralia kuti idyidzane neUS muchiuto, kunyanya muSoutheast Asia.

Ichiri kutadza kutsanangura zvirimo kuAustralia. Kunyangwe shanu dzeVirginia kirasi yenyukireya dzepasi pemvura dzinogona kutorwa neAustralia dziri pasi pemvumo yeUS congressional. Avo vanotevera zvematongerwo enyika veUS vanoziva kuti US parizvino chibvumirano hachigone; harina kubvumira chibvumirano chimwe chete panyaya kubva pakudziya kwepasi kusvika kumutemo wemakungwa mumakore achangopfuura. Mamwe masere akanaka makore 20-40 kure; ndiani anoziva kuti nyika ingaratidzika sei kure zvakadaro.

Sei, kana kuchengetedzwa kwechikepe chaive chinangwa chayo, Australia yakasarudza iffy chibvumirano chenyukireya chepasi pemvura neUS pamusoro pekuwanikwa kwechokwadi-kupfurwa kwezvikepe zveFrance zvepasi pemvura? Izvi a mubvunzo kuti Malcolm Turnbull naPaul Keating, veAustralia Labor Party vaimbove PMs, vakabvunza. Zvine musoro chete kana tikanzwisisa kuti Australia ikozvino inozviona senge cog muUS vhiri redunhu rino. Uye chiono cheUS chikepe chemagetsi fungidziro mudunhu iro nhasi Australia inogovera. Chiratidzo ndechekuti masimba evapambi vekoloni uye ekare-e-G7-AUKUS-vanofanira kunge vari ivo vanoita mitemo yehurongwa hwepasi rose huripo. Uye kuseri kwehurukuro yekurongeka kwenyika kune chibhakera chakatumirwa cheUS, NATO, uye AUKUS. Izvi ndizvo zvinonyatsorehwa nechibvumirano chenyukireya cheAustralia.