Ndagara ndichifarira kutsigira kwangu nhaurirano dzorugare, idzo dzave dzichiregeredzwa kazhinji kazhinji mukurwisana kwomukati nomunyika yose. Asi zviri pachena kuti musangano wepasi rose weSyria wakaita musangano wavo wekutanga muVienna muna Gumiguru 30 imusangano wesham usingakwanisi kuunza chero nhaurirano dzerunyararo, uye kuti hutungamiriri hwaObama hwakaziva izvozvo chaizvo kubva pakutanga.
Utungamiri hwaive huchitaura chokwadi chekuti Iran yakakokwa kuti itore chikamu mumusangano uyu, kusiyana nemusangano wakapfuura wakatsigirwa neUnited Nations kuSyria muna Ndira naKukadzi 2014. Musangano unosuwisa uyu wakanga wabvisa Iran pakusimbirira kweUnited States nevatsigiri vayo veSunni. kunyangwe nyika dzakati wandei dzisina kana hudiki hwekupa chero chinhu murunyararo - pamwe neVatican - vaive pakati pevakapinda makumi mana vasiri veSyria vakakokwa.
Kupinda kweIran mumusangano weVienna kunomiririra danho rakanaka. Zvakangodaro, musangano uyu wakaratidzirwa nekutonyanya kukosha kupusa: hapana kana mumwe wemapato eSyria kuhondo akakokwa. Hurukuro dze2014 dzinenge dzaive nevamiriri vehutongi hweAssad nevamwe vevanopikisa vane zvombo. Zviripachena zvinorehwa nesarudzo iyi ndezvekuti vatsigiri vekunze vemapato eSyria - kunyanya Russia, Iran neSaudi Arabia - vanotarisirwa kuenda kugwaro rekugadzirisa uye voshandisa hukama hwavo nevatengi kumanikidza kugamuchirwa kwechibvumirano.
Muenzaniso weVietnam
Pfungwa yekusvetuka pamusoro pemapato eSyria kune kunetsana nekuita kuti kunze kwesimba kutaurirane chibvumirano cherunyararo pachinzvimbo chevatengi vayo inonzwisisika mune iyo abstract. Nyaya yemhando yepamusoro yehurongwa hwakadai inhaurirano yeUS yeChibvumirano cheParis neNorth Vietnamese muna Ndira 1973 yekupedza hondo yeUS muVietnam. Hutongi hweThieu hunotsigirwa neUS hwakazara nerubatsiro rweUS uye huremu hwemauto eUS muVietnam hwakaita kuti Thieu abvume hurongwa uhu.
Asi zvinofanirawo kucherechedzwa kuti gadziriro haina kupedza hondo. Hurumende yeThieu yakanga isingadi kutevedzera kumisa pfuti kana kugadzirisa zvematongerwo enyika, uye hondo yakaenderera mberi kwemamwe makore maviri hondo huru yekuNorth Vietnam isati yapera muna 1975.
Chinonyanya kukosha maererano nekushanda kwemuenzaniso kuHondo yeSyria musiyano wakakura pakati pekufarira kweUS mukutaurirana pamusoro pemutengi wayo weVietnamese uye zvido zveIran neRussia maererano nehurumende yeSyria. United States yakanga ichitaurirana kuti ibude muhondo yesarudzo yayakatanga, seIraq, mukutenda kusina kururama kuti simba rayo guru rakavimbisa kutonga kwemamiriro ezvinhu uye kwayakamanikidzwa kupera nekumanikidzwa kwezvematongerwo enyika. Iran, kune rumwe rutivi, iri kurwa hondo muSyria iyo inoona yakakosha kuchengetedzeka kwayo. Uye zvido zveRussia zvezvematongerwo enyika uye zvekuchengetedza muSyria zvinogona kunge zvisina kujeka, asi zvakare haina kukurudzira kubvumirana kugadzirisa kunogona kukanganisa kukunda kwehugandanga muSyria.
Kunyura kwevapikisi vari pakati nepakati
Tarisiro yekuendesa mauto eAssad mukugadzirisa yakatoipa. Kana mauto anopikisa anotsigirwa neUS akatarisana nehutongi hweSyria nevamiriri vayo vekune dzimwe nyika vaine simba rakakwana rekutyisidzira hurumende inogona kunge iri hwaro hwenhaurirano dzerunyararo. VaObama manejimendi vakaedza kuumba pfungwa yekuti mauto "ane mwero" - zvichireva kuti avo vanoda kushanda neUnited States - ndivo vanopikisa mauto kuhurumende yeAssad. Muchokwadi, zvakadaro, mauto aya "ane mwero" angave akatorwa kana kuti akabatana nemajihadist eal-Nusra Front nevabatsiri vayo.
Iko kushanduka kunoshamisa kwechimiro chekupikisa kwemauto kuAssad kwakatanga kuoneka munaSeptember 2013. Ndiyo apo matatu makuru e "moderate" Islamist brigades. tisingatarisiri akabatanidzwa pamwe nevabatsiri veal-Nusra Front vachipokana neSyria National Coalition, iyo yakange yaumbwa muDoha muna Mbudzi 2012 pasi pekumanikidzwa kubva kuUnited States pamwe nemubatanidzwa wayo weGulf.
Shanduko yekutonga kwejihadist yehondo yekurwisa hutongi hweAssad yakawedzera pakati paNovember 2014 naKurume 2015 apo Syrian Revolutionaries Front uye Harakat al-Hazm mapoka, mapoka maviri makuru evapanduki anga achiwana zvombo kubva kuCIA kana maSaudis, akarwiswa uye akanyanya kutorwa neal-Nusra Front.
Kuchinja ikoko kune zvakunoreva zviri pachena pamukana wekugadzirisa kwenhaurirano. Pamusangano weUnited Nations wenhumwa Lakhdar Brahimi kuGeneva II muna Ndira 2014, mapoka ega anopikisa aive patafura aive aya anomiririrwa neUS-inotsigirwa neSyria National Coalition, iyo hapana akaitora zvakanyanya sekumiririra chero kutyisidzira kwemauto kuhurumende. Asipo pamusangano uyu aizviti Islamic State uye al-Qaeda franchise muSyria, al-Nusra Front nevamwe vayo, izvo zvaimiririra kutyisidzira kwakadaro.
Kuvenga kutaura kwaNusra
Asi kana veIslamic State kana veNusra-Front-inotungamirwa maIslamist vanga vachifarira zvishoma mumusangano werunyararo. Mukuru wemauto weIslam Front, inotongwa nemubatanidzwa wepedyo we al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, akataura kuti aizofunga kutora chikamu kwemauto ese evapanduki muhurukuro dzerunyararo se "kupandukira".
Chii VaObama vanoti inoda kuona kubuda kubva kumusangano weVienna "mepu yemugwagwa" yekuchinja kwesimba. Hutongi hwakajekesa, zvakare, kuti hunoda kuchengetedza masangano ehurumende yeSyria, kusanganisira chimiro chemauto eSyria. Asi zvese zveIslamic State nemubatanidzwa unotungamirwa neAl-Qaeda masangano echiSunni ane mhirizhonga asina kuvanza chinangwa chavo chekutsiva hutongi hweAssad nenyika yechiIslam iyo isina zvisaririra zvehurumende iripo.
Hurumende yeAssad sezviri pachena haina kurudziro, saka, kutaura chero kushanduka kwekuda kwekubva kwaAssad kubva kuSyria, kana ichiziva kuti hapana mukana wekumisa kurwa kana kugadzirisana neIslam State uye al-Nusra Front. Saizvozvo, havasi veRussia kana maIran vanogona kumanikidza ruoko rwaAssad panyaya iyi kungotaurirana nechinhu chisina kusimba mukupikisa.
Nhoroondo yenhema yeUS paSyria
Vagadziri vemitemo yehutongi hwaObama zvakadaro vanoratidzika kunge vakatsunga kusatendera zvinhu zvisingafadzi kuti zvikanganise mutsara wavo wekunyepa paSyria, izvo zviri kuRussia neIran kuti vagadzirise dambudziko iri neimwe nzira yekukanganisa chibvumirano kubva kuhurumende yeAssad. Secretary of State John Kerry yakakurudzira mubvunzurudzo neKazak TV chiteshi mazuva mashomanana mushure mokunge musangano weVienna wasangana kuti "nzira yekugumisa hondo ndeyokukumbira Mr Assad kuti vabatsire nekuchinja kune hurumende itsva". Russia yakakundikana kuita kudaro, uye pachinzvimbo "iripo kungotsigira hutongi hweAssad," akadaro Kerry, achiwedzera kuti "vanopikisa havazoregi kurwisa Assad".
Hazvina chokwadi kuti Kerry anokanganisa chinzvimbo chakadaro chekuparadzira kune zvakanyanya kusagadzikana zveSyria zvezvematongerwo enyika-zvehondo. Asi hazvina kunaka mune zvematongerwo enyika kubvuma chokwadi ichocho. Izvi zvaizokoka mibvunzo isingadikanwi nezve danho rehutongi muna 2011 rekuenzanisa mutemo waro neveSyria hawks muRiyadh, Doha neIstanbul avo vaive vakatsunga kushanduka kwehutongi muSyria zvekuti vaisangove nehanya nekuvakwa kwejihadist muSyria asi vakazviona sekudaro. chishandiso chinobatsira pakubvisa Assad.
Ikozvino mutengo weiyo inofarisa yezvematongerwo enyika-dhipatimendi raObama musangano wesham werunyararo unotsausa nyika yese nezvekushaikwa kwemhinduro chaiyo yehondo.
- Gareth Porter mutori wenhau akazvimirira uye anohwina mubairo we2012 Gellhorn wekutapa nhau. Iye ndiye munyori weiyo ichangobva kuburitswa Yakagadzirwa Dambudziko: Iyo Isingaverengeki Nyaya yeIran Nuclear Scare.
