NaChas Freeman Jr., UnHerd, January 4, 2024
Mabatiro akaita vezvenhau veAmerica neHondo yeUkraine zvinounza kundangariro zvakataurwa kuna Mark Twain: “Ongororo yevatsinhi vakawanda yakatoisa rima rakawanda panyaya iyi, uye zvinokwanisika kuti, kana vakaramba, tichaziva munguva pfupi. hapana zvachose nezvazvo."
Icho chirevo chezwi rechiito chechirevo chinozivikanwa zviri nani: muhondo, chokwadi ndicho chekutanga kufa. Inowanzo kuperekedzwa nemhute yenhema dzepamutemo. Uye hakuna mhute yakadaro yakambove yakakora semuhondo yeUkraine. Nepo mazana ezviuru zvevanhu vakarwa uye vakafa muUkraine, michina yekuparadzira mashoko muBrussels, Kyiv, London, Moscow neWashington yakashanda nguva yakawandisa kuona kuti tinotora mativi ane shungu, kutenda zvatinoda kutenda, uye kupa mhosva chero munhu anobvunza. rondedzero yatakapinda mukati. Migumisiro kune vose yave yakaipa. KuUkraine, vanga vari njodzi. Sezvatinopinda mugore idzva, kufunga patsva kwegwara nevose vane chekuita kwakanonoka.
Izvi mhedzisiro yeidi rekuti hondo yakazvarirwa mukati uye yakaenderera mberi nekuda kwekukanganisa nemativi ese. United States yakaverenga kuti kutyisidzira kweRussia kuenda kuhondo pamusoro pekusarerekera kweUkraine aive mabluffs anogona kudziviswa nekutsanangura nekuzvidza zvirongwa zveRussia. Russia yaifunga kuti United States yaizoda nhaurirano kuhondo uye yaizoda kudzivirira kupatsanurwa kweEurope kuita mabhururu ane hutsinye. MaUkraine akaverengera kuMadokero kudzivirira nyika yavo. Apo kuita kweRussia mumwedzi yekutanga yehondo kwakaratidza kushomeka, Madokero akagumisa kuti Ukraine inogona kuikunda. Hapana kana imwe yekuverenga uku yakaratidza kuti ndeyechokwadi.
Zvakangodaro, propaganda yepamutemo, yakakwidziridzwa neakadzikama uye magariro enhau, akapwisa vazhinji kuMadokero kuti kuramba chibvumirano cherunyararo chisati chapinda uye kukurudzira Ukraine kurwisa Russia neimwe nzira "pro-Ukrainian". Tsitsi yehondo yeUkraine inonzwisisika zvachose, asi, seHondo yeVietnam yaifanira kunge yakatidzidzisa, demokrasi inorasikirwa apo cheerleading inotsiva kusarongeka mukuzivisa uye hurumende dzinosarudza ivo pachavo propaganda kune chokwadi chezviri kuitika munhandare yehondo. Saka chii chiri kuitika panhandare yehondo? Uye vatori vechikamu muHondo yeUkraine vari kuita sei maererano nekuzadzisa zvinangwa zvavo?
Ngatitange neUkraine. Kubva 2014 kusvika 2022, hondo yevagari muDonbas akatora upenyu hunoda kusvika 15,000 XNUMX. Vangani vakauraiwa muchiito kubva pakatanga hondo yevamiriri veUS/Nato-Russia muna Kukadzi 2022 hazvizivikanwe, asi zvirimo. mazana anoverengeka ezviuru. Nhamba dzevakakuvadzwa dzakavanzwa nehondo yemashoko yakanyanyisa. Ruzivo rwega kuMadokero nezvevakafa nevakakuvadzwa yanga iri manyepo kubva kuKyiv ichiti nhamba huru yeRussia yakafa ichiburitsa zvishoma nezvevakakuvara vekuUkraine. Asi kunyange nezhizha rapfuura, zvaizivikanwa izvozvo 10% yevaUkraine vaibatanidzwa nemauto, apo 78% yaive nehama kana shamwari akanga aurayiwa kana kukuvadzwa. Zvinofungidzirwa kuti pakati 20,000 uye 50,000 maUkraine vava kugurwa gumbo. (Nekuda kwechirevo, 41,000 maBritish aifanira kudimburwa mitezo muHondo Yenyika Yokutanga, apo muitiro wacho waiwanzova ndiwo chete waivapo kudzivirira rufu. Vashoma pane varwi ve2,000 veUS vekuAfghanistan neIraq vakadimburwa maoko.)
Pakatanga hondo, Ukraine yaiva nevanhu vanenge mamiriyoni 31. Nyika yakabva yarasika chikamu chimwe muzvitatu chavanhu vayo. Vanopfuura mamiriyoni matanhatu vakapotera kuMadokero. Mamirioni maviri mamwe ane akaenda kuRussia. Imwe mamiriyoni masere eUkraine akadzingwa kubva kumisha yavo asi voramba vari munyika. Zvivakwa zveUkraine, maindasitiri, uye maguta akaparadzwa uye hupfumi hwayo hwakaparadzwa. Sezvinowanzoitika muhondo, huwori - hwakareba hwakakurumbira mune zvematongerwo enyika dzeUkraine - hwakatekeshera. Democracy yekutanga yeUkraine haisisiri, ine mapato anopikisa, vasingadzoreki nhepfenyuro, uye kupesana kwakarambidzwa. Kune rimwe divi, chisimba cheRussia chakabatanidza vanhu vekuUkraine, kusanganisira vazhinji vanotaura chiRussian, kusvika pamwero usati wamboonekwa. Moscow nekudaro yakasimbisa nekusaziva chiziviso cheUkraine chakasiyana icho ngano dzeRussia uye Mutungamiri Putin vakatsvaga kuramba. Izvo Ukraine yakarasika munharaunda yayakawana mukubatana kwekuda nyika zvichibva mukupokana nemoyo wese kuMoscow.
Iyo flipside yeiyi ndeyekuti veUkraine vanotaura chiRussian vanoparadzanisa vakave vakasimbisa chitupa chavo chekuRussia. Parizvino hapana mukana wekuti vatauri veRussia vagamuchire chinzvimbo muUkraine yakabatana, sezvazvaive zvakaita pasi peMinsk Accords. Uye, nekutadza kwe "counteroffensive" yeUkraine, hazvigoneke kuti Donbas kana Crimea ichazombodzokera kuhutongi hweUkraine. Sezvo hondo ichienderera mberi, Ukraine inogona kurasikirwa neimwe nzvimbo, kusanganisira kupinda kwayo kuBlack Sea. Izvo zvakarasika panhandare yehondo uye mumoyo yevanhu hazvigone kuwanikwa zvakare patafura yekutaurirana. Ukraine ichabuda muhondo iyi yakaremara, yakaremara, uye yakaderedzwa zvakanyanya munharaunda uye nehuwandu hwevanhu.
Uyezve, iko zvino hapana tarisiro yechokwadi yenhengo yeUkraine yeNATO. Sezvo NSC Advisor Jake Sullivan ataura, munhu wese "inoda kutarisisa chokwadi” izvo zvinobvumira Ukraine kujoina Nato panguva ino “zvinoreva hondo neRussia”. Nekudivi rake, Munyori Mukuru weNato, Jens Stoltenberg, akataura kuti chinodiwa kuti uve nhengo yeUkraine muNATO chibvumirano cherunyararo pakati payo neRussia. Asi hapana chibvumirano chakadaro chiri pamberi. Mukuenderera mberi nekusimbirira kuti Ukraine ichava nhengo yeNato kana hondo yapera, nyika dzekumavirira dzakakurudzira Russia kusabvuma kupedza hondo. Mukupedzisira, Ukraine ichafanirwa kuita rugare rwayo neRussia, zvakanyanya kunyanya maererano neRussia.
Chero chipi zvacho chingave chiri kuwanikwa nehondo, saka, hazvina kunaka kuUkraine. Nzvimbo yayo yekutengeserana vau-à-vis Russia yakaderedzwa zvakanyanya. Asi zvadaro, mafambiro aKyiv agara ari echinyakare mumatanho emitemo yeUS. Washington yakatsvaga kushandisa hushingi hweUkraine kurova Russia, kusimbisa Nato, uye kusimbisa hukuru hweUS muEurope. Uye haina kutora nguva chero ipi zvayo kufunga nezvekudzoreredza rugare kuEurope.
Nekudaro, kana Russia, maererano nezvinangwa zvayo zvehondo, haina kubudirira kudzinga pesvedzero yeAmerica kubva kuUkraine, yakamanikidza Kyiv kutaura kusarerekera, kana kudzoreredza kodzero dzevatauri veRussia muUkraine. Chokwadi, chero mugumisiro wehondo, kuvengana kwakadzima ngano yeRussia yehukama hweRussia-Ukrainian hwakavakirwa pamavambo akafanana muKyivan Rus. Russia yaifanira kusiya mazana matatu emakore ekuedza kuonana neEurope uye pachinzvimbo ichienda kuChina, India, nyika yechiIslam neAfrica. Kuyananiswa neEuropean Union yakaparadzaniswa zvakanyanya hakuuye nyore, kana zvachose. Russia inogona kunge isina kurasikirwa munhandare yehondo kana kuneteswa kana kuparadzaniswa zvine hungwaru, asi yakaunza mari yemukana wakakura.
Asi kunyange kana hondo yakanganisa Russia, hazvisi pachena kuti yakabatsira United States. Muna 2022 chete, iyo US yakabvumidza $113 bhiriyoni mukubatsira kuUkraine. Iyo bhajeti yekudzivirira yeRussia ipapo yaive hafu yazvo, uye kubvira ipapo zvakapetwa kaviri. Maindasitiri ekudzivirira eRussia akavandudzwa, achibatsira nyika munguva pfupi yapfuura kukunda Germany kuti ive yechishanu-yakapfuma hupfumi hwenyika uye hukuru muEurope maererano nekutenga simba parity. Zvisinei nekudzokororwa kwekutaura kwekuMadokero kuti Russia yaishaya zvombo uye ichirasikirwa nehondo yekurwisa muUkraine, hazvina kudaro. Zvichakadaro, kutyisidzira kweRussia kuMadokero, yaimbova nharo ine simba yekubatana kweNATO, yakarasikirwa nekuvimbika. Mauto eRussia aratidza kuti haakwanise kukunda Ukraine, zvichiri pasi peEurope yese.
Hondo yakafumurawo mafissure ari pachena pakati penhengo dzeNato. Sezvakaratidzwa nemusangano wegore rapfuura muVilnius, nyika dzenhengo dzinosiyana pakudiwa kwekubvuma Ukraine. Kubatana kwazvino uku kunoratidzika kunge kusingabviri kukunda hondo. Izvi zvechokwadi zvinobatsirawo kutsanangura kuti sei vazhinji veAmerica vekuEurope vanobatana vachida kupedza hondo nekukurumidza sezvinobvira. Hondo yeUkraine yakanyatso kubhadharwa kune iyo post-Soviet era muEurope, asi haina kuita kuti Europe ive yakachengeteka. Izvo hazvina kusimudzira mukurumbira wenyika dzeAmerica kana kubatanidza hukuru hweUS. Hondo yakatowedzera kubuda kweiyo post-American multipolar world order. Chimwe chinhu cheichi i-anti-American axis pakati peRussia neChina.
Kunetesa Russia, United States yanga ichivharira kutengeserana pakati penyika dzisina chekuita neUkraine kana hondo iripo nekuti havazosvetukira kuUS bandwagon. Kushandiswa uku kwezvematongerwo enyika nehupfumi kumanikidza dzimwe nyika kuti dzienderane nehurongwa hwayo hwekupokana neRussia neChina hwakadzosera kumashure. Yakakurudzira kunyange vaimbove nyika dzevatengi vekuUS kutsvaga nzira dzekudzivirira kupindira mukupokana kweAmerica mune ramangwana uye hondo dzeproxy dzavasingatsigire, sezvakaita muUkraine. Kure nekutsaura Russia kana China, kumanikidzana kweAmerica kwakabatsira Moscow neBeijing kusimudzira hukama muAfrica, Asia, neLatin America izvo zvinoderedza pesvedzero yeUS vachifarira yavo.
Muchidimbu, mutemo weUS wakonzera kutambura kukuru muUkraine uye kuwedzera bhajeti redziviriro muno uye muEurope, asi yatadza kunetesa kana kutsaura Russia. Zvakawanda zvakafanana hazvingaite chimwe cheizvi zvinogara zvichitaurwa zvinangwa zveAmerica. Russia, panguva ino, yakadzidziswa nzira yekurwisa masisitimu ezvombo zveAmerica uye yakagadzira macounter anoshanda kwavari. Yakasimbiswa muhondo, kwete kuneteswa.
Kana chinangwa chehondo chiri chekuunza rugare rwuri nani, hondo iyi haisi kuita izvozvo. Ukraine iri kubviswa paatari yeRussophobia. Panguva ino, hapana anogona kufanotaura nechivimbo kuti ingani yeUkraine kana kuti vangani veUkraine vachasara kana kurwa kwamira kana kuti riini uye sei. Kyiv iri kutotambura kuzadzisa zvinangwa zvayo zvekupinza vanhu basa. Kurwisa Russia kusvika kuUkraine yekupedzisira yaigara iri zano rinosemesa. Asi apo Nato yava kuda kupera vanhu vokuUkraine, haisi kungoshora; haisisiri sarudzo inoshanda.
Gore rino, yave nguva yekuisa pamberi kuchengetedza zvakanyanya sezvinobvira kweUkraine, iyo hondo iyi yave iripo. Ukraine inoda kutsigirwa nedhipatimendi kugadzira runyararo neRussia kana kuzvipira kwayo kwemauto kwaisazove pasina. Iri kuparadzwa. Inofanira kuvakwazve. Chinokosha chekuchengetedza zvakasara kupa simba uye kudzorera Kyiv kugumisa hondo nenzira yakanakisisa yainogona kuwana, kufambisa kudzoka kwevapoteri vayo, uye kushandisa nzira yekupinda muEU kusimudzira shanduko dzakasununguka uye kutanga hurumende yakachena pasina kwayakarerekera. Ukireni.
Nehurombo, sekumira kwezvinhu, zvese zviri zviviri Moscow neWashington zvinoita sekunge zvakatsunga kuenderera mberi mukuparadza kweUkraine. Asi chero zvichazoitika muhondo, Kyiv neMoscow pakupedzisira vachafanira kuwana hwaro hwekugarisana. Washington inoda kutsigira Kyiv mukupikisa Russia kuti ione zvese huchenjeri uye kukosha kwekuremekedza kusarerekera kweUkraine uye kuvimbika kwenzvimbo.
Chekupedzisira, hondo iyi inofanirwa kumutsa kufunga kwakadzikama muWashington neMoscow nezve mhedzisiro yedhipatimendi-isina, mauto ekunze mutemo. Dai United States yakabvuma kutaura neMoscow, kunyange dai yakaramba ichiramba zvakawanda zvaidiwa neMoscow, Russia ingadai isina kupinda muUkraine sezvayakaita. Dai nyika dzekuMadokero dzisina kupindira kudzivirira Ukraine kuti irege kubvumidza chibvumirano vamwe vakaibatsira kuti ibvumirane neRussia pakutanga kwehondo, Ukraine yaizove yakasimba uye ine rugare. Hondo iyi yaisafanira kuitika. Uye bato riri rose kwairi rakarasikirwa zvikuru kupfuura zvarakawana.
Ichi chinyorwa chakagadziriswa chekutaura kwaChas Freeman kuEast Bay Citizens for Peace.
