From History News Network
Nyaya yekupindira kwevanhu yakaratidza kushungurudza imwe yezvematongerwo enyika yakasara munguva yepashure peCold War. Mumhirizhonga yakawandisa muRwanda, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Darfur, Libya, neSyria, vazhinji vakasiyiwa vakasiya kupesana kwavo muchiuto uye vakapokana nekupindira kwemauto neUnited States nevatsigiri vayo kupedza matambudziko aya. Vatsoropodzi vakapokana mukupindura kuti kupindira kwaizopedzisira kwawedzera matambudziko chaiwo aifanirwa kugadzirisa. Idzi nyaya dzakakurukurwa munguva pfupi yapfuura kuOxford Union Society kuOxford University munaKurume 4, 2019. Vadzidzi vacho ndiMichael Chertoff - aimbova Secretary of Homeland Security panguva yemutungamiri waGeorge W. Bush uye coauthor weUSA Patriot Act - uyo akapa akakodzera kudzivirira kupindira kwevanhu; uye neni pachangu, uyo akapokana nemuitiro uyu.
Mumakore apfuura, pandakaitirana nharo pamusoro penyaya iyi, ndakabatwa nepfungwa yekushingairira kwechitendero kwakaratidza kutsigira kupindira. "Tinofanira kuita chimwe chinhu!" ndiyo yaive yakajairwa kurega. Avo vakapa kushoropodza - kusanganisira ini - vakakandwa sevanyengeri. Zvisinei, kukundikana kwakadzokororwa kwekupindira kwandino cherekedza pazasi vatora mutero uye vakashanda kuenzanisa inzwi. Pakati pehurukuro yeOxford, ndakaona kusavapo kunoshamisa kwemanzwiro. Ini ndakauya kubva pachiitiko ndichifunga kuti, nepo vamwe vachiri kudzivirira kupindira kwevanhu, nharo dzavo hadzina toni yekurwisa yaive yakakosha munguva yakapfuura. Ini ndinonzwa kuti rutsigiro rweveruzhinji rwekupindira rwuri kutanga kupera.
Izvo zvinotevera ndezvinyorwa zvinyorwa zvezvinyorwa zvizere zvangu naVaChristoff, pamwe chete nemhinduro dzedu kumibvunzo yakakonzerwa nomutongi uye nhengo yevateereri. Nokuda kwezvikonzero zvehupfupi, ndakasiya vakawanda vevateereri mibvunzo, pamwe chete nemhinduro. Vaverengi vanofarira vanogona kuwana mharo yakakwana paOxford Union Youtube site.
Daniel Wilkinson, Oxford Union President
Saka, nyanzvi, chirevo ndechekuti: "Imba iyi inofunga kuti kupindira kwevanhu kunopesana nemashoko." Uye Purofesa Gibbs, mhinduro yako yemaminitsi gumi inogona kutanga apo iwe wagadzirira.
Purofesa David Gibbs
Waita hako. Zvakanaka, ndinofunga kuti kana munhu akatarisa kupindira kwevanhu, munhu anofanira kutarisa zvinyorwa zvezvakanyatsoitika uye kunyanya kupindira kukuru kwekupedzisira kubva muna 2000: Kupindira kweIraq muna 2003, kupindira kweAfghanistan muna 2001, uye Libya kupindira kwa2011. Uye izvo zvitatu izvi zvakafanana, ndezvekuti vese vatatu vakaruramiswa kanenge muchikamu pane zvikonzero zvevanhu. Ndiri kureva, maviri ekutanga chikamu, chechitatu chakangoita chete chakaruramiswa nezvikonzero zvekubatsira. Uye ese matatu akaburitsa njodzi dzevanhu. Izvi zviri pachena chaizvo, ndinofunga kune chero munhu anga achiverenga pepanhau kuti kupindira uku hakuna kuenda zvakanaka zvachose. Uye kana uchiongorora nyaya hombe yekupindira kwerubatsiro, munhu anofanirwa kutanga atarisa izvo zvakakosha zvinhu, izvo zvisingafadzi. Rega ndiwedzere kuti zvinondishamisa kwazvo munzira dzakawanda dzekuti pfungwa yese kupindira kwevanhu hakuna kungo nyadziswa zvizere nezviitiko izvi, asi hazvisi.
Tichine mafoni emamwe mapindiro, kusanganisira muSyria, kunyanya. Zvakare, kune zvinowanzo fanirwa shanduko yehutongi, kunyanya kupindira, muNorth Korea. Ini handinyatso kuziva kuti chii chichaitika mune ramangwana neNorth Korea. Asi kana United States ikaita shanduko yehutongi muNorth Korea, ndichaisa njodzi mifanidzo miviri: Imwe, zvingangoita zvicharuramiswa muchidimbu sekupindira kwerubatsiro kwakagadzirirwa kusunungura vanhu veNorth Korea kubva kumudzvanyiriri asina kunaka. uye maviri, ichaburitsa ingangove njodzi hombe yerubatsiro kubva muna 1945. Mumwe wemibvunzo ndewekuti: Sei tisiri kudzidza kubva mukukanganisa kwedu?
Chiyero chekutadza mune idzi nhatu dzakapfuura nzira dziri munzira dzakawanda dzinoyevedza. Nezve Iraq, pamwe ndiyo yakanyanya kutadza kunyorwa, ndingati. Tine 2006 Lancet kudzidza. Epidemiologically inotarisa kufa kwakawandisa muIraq, iyo panguva iyoyo yaifungidzirwa kuva vakafa zviuru mazana mashanu nemakumi matanhatu. (560,000) Izvi zvakaburitswa muna 1. Saka, zvinofungidzirwa kuti zvakakwirira zvakanyanya pari zvino. Pakave paine kumwe kufungidzira, kunyanya kuchienderana neicho icho. Uye ichi chinhu chinonetsa. Zvirokwazvo, zvinhu zvaityisa pasi paSaddam Hussein, izvo hazvirambike, sezvo vaive pasi peTaliban, sezvavaive vari pasi paMuammar Gaddafi, sezvavari parizvino vari pasi paKim Jong Un kuNorth Korea. Uye saka, takapinda tikabvisa pasimba iwo manhamba matatu rimwe nerimwe (kana ndinofanira kuti pamwe neTaliban, hwaive hutongi hukuru, Mullah Omar achitungamira hutongi hukuru, uye zvinhu zvakakurumidza kuwedzera. Izvo zvaiita kunge zvisina kuitika kune vanogadzira mutemo kuti zvinhu zvinogona kunyanyisa, asi ndizvo zvavakaita.
Chimwe chiitiko chakakosha kucherechedza ndicho chandingati rudzi rwekudzikamisa matunhu. Izvi zvinonyanya kushamisa mune nyaya yeLibya, iyo yakadzikamisa nzvimbo zhinji dzekuchamhembe kweAfrica, zvichikonzera hondo yechipiri yevagari vemo muMali muna 2013, iyo yakanangana nekukanganiswa kweLibya. Izvi zvaida kupindira kwechipiri, neFrance panguva ino, kurwisa zvakanyanya kusagadzikana kuri kuitika munyika iyoyo, zvakare kwakaruramiswa kanenge muchikamu nekuda kwezvikonzero zvevanhu.
Zvirokwazvo, chimwe chezvinhu munhu chaanogona kutaura maererano nemhedzisiro yekupindira kwevanhu, ndechekuti kana iwe uine kufarira kupihwa mukana uye icho chinhu chauri kutsvaga, iri zano rakanakisa nekuti chipo chinongoramba chichipa. Iyo inoramba ichidzikamisa matunhu, ichigadzira nyonganiso dzevanhu, nokudaro ichipembedza kupindira kutsva. Izvi ndizvo chaizvo zvakaitika mune zvakaitika kuLibya uyezve Mali. Zvino kana iwe uchifarira kubatsira kwevanhu, zvakadaro mamiriro acho haatarise kunge akanaka. Iyo haina kutaridzika kunge yakanaka zvachose.
Chinhu chinotyisa pano kushaikwa kwekurasikirwa kwekuvimbika. Ini ndakabayiwa moyo nenyaya yekuti vanhu vakabatsira kupokana nekuda kweizvi zvitatu kupindira - uye neizvozvo ini handingoreve vanogadzira marongero, asiwo vadzidzi uye vakadzidza seni. Ini pachangu handina kuvarwira, asi vazhinji vevandaishanda navo vakadaro. Uye zviri nani kunoshamisa kwandiri kuti hapana kutaura kwekuzvidemba kana kubvuma kuti vakaita chero chinhu chakashata mukukakavara kwekupindira uku. Kana kuti hapana kuedza kudzidza kubva mukukanganisa kwedu uye kuyedza uye kudzivirira kupindira mune ramangwana. Pane chimwe chinhu chisina basa zvakanyanya nezvehunhu hwekukurukura pamusoro penyaya iyi, kana tikatadza kudzidza kubva pane zvakapfuura zvikanganiso.
Dambudziko repiri nenyaya yekupindira kwekubatsira nderimwe rakanzi nevamwe "maoko akasviba" dambudziko. Tiri kuvimba nenyika uye vamiririri venyika idzo dzisina zvinyorwa zvakanaka kwazvo zvebasa revanhu. Ngatitarisei kuUnited States uye nhoroondo yayo yekupindira. Kana munhu akatarisa izvo, nhoroondo yekupindira kweUS, tinoona United States sesimba rekupindira yaive honzeri huru yematambudziko erubatsiro kare. Kana munhu akatarisa semuenzaniso pakupidigurwa kweMossadegh kuIran muna 1953, kupidigurwa kweAllende muChile muna 1973. Uye ini ndinofunga muenzaniso unonyanya kushamisa, risingazivikanwe zvakanyanya, iIndonesia muna 1965, uko CIA yakabatsira mainjiniya coup uye ipapo yakabatsira kuronga kuuraya kwevanhu kwakatungamira kune vangangoita mazana mashanu ezviuru vakafa. Ndo kumwe kwekuuraya kukuru post-500,000, hongu zvirokwazvo, pachiyero chezvakaitika muRwanda, angangoita angangoita. Uye icho chaive chimwe chinhu chakakonzerwa nekupindira. Uye mumwe anogona zvakare kupinda muchinyorwa cheHondo yeVietnam otarisa semuenzaniso paPentagon Mapepa, zvakavanzika Pentagon kudzidza nezve Hondo yeVietnam, uye mumwe haanzwisise United States sesimba rakapfava kana kunyanya anobatsira Poshi. Uye mhedzisiro yacho yaive isiri yerubatsiro mune chero eizvi zviitiko.
Pane nyaya hombe pamwe yekutyorwa kwekodzero dzevanhu nemasangano ehurumende anobatanidzwa mukupindira muUnited States. Isu tave kuziva kubva kumagwaro akaparadzaniswa kuti vese vakapfeka yunifomu mauto neCIA vaive nebasa muma50s uye kutanga 60s mukuitisa radiation radiation kune vanhu vasingafungire; kuita zvinhu sekufamba-famba uye kuva navanachiremba vanoshandira mauto vachipinza vanhu maisotopu ane radioactive uye vozoteedzera miviri yavo nekufamba kwenguva kuti vaone mhedzisiro yazvakaita uye nemhando dzipi dzezvirwere zvakavakonzera - vasina kuvaudza hongu. Iyo CIA yaive nekuvhiringidza kwakanyanya kuyedza-kudzora kuyedza, kuyedza nzira nyowani dzekubvunzurudza pane vanhu vasingafungire, zvine mhedzisiro inokuvadza. Mumwe wemasayendisiti akapinda muzvidzidzo zvemwaranzi akataura ega, zvekare izvi zvinobva mugwaro rakaziviswa, kuti zvimwe zvaaiita zvaive nezvaakadaidza kuti "Buchenwald", uye takaona zvaaireva. Uye iwo mubvunzo uri pachena zvakare ndewekuti: Sei pasi pano isu tichizoda kuvimba nemasangano anoita zvinhu seizvi kuti aite chimwe chinhu chinobatsira iye zvino? Iyi ndiyo nzira yekare kare. Asi chokwadi chekuti isu ikozvino toshandisa izwi rekuti "kupindirana kwevanhu" hachiite ichi chirevo chemashiripiti uye hachidzime mashiripiti nhoroondo yakapfuura, inoenderana uye inofanirwa kutariswa. Ini handidi kutarisa zvakanyanya pasirese nyika yangu mushure mezvose. Dzimwe nyika dzakaita zvimwe zvinhu zvinovhiringidza. Mumwe anogona kutarisa nhoroondo yeBritain neFrance, ngatitii, pamwe nekolonial uye postcolonial kupindira. Mumwe haatore mufananidzo wezve rubatsiro rwevanhu; zvakapesana ndingati, kungava mukufunga kana mukuita.
Iye zvino ndinofunga imwe yenyaya dzinopedzisira dzafanirwa kucherechedzwa mutengo wekupindira kwevanhu. Ichi chinhu chisinga fanirwe kutariswa, asi pamwe chinofanirwa kutariswa, kunyanya sezvo rekodhi yemhedzisiro yakaipa kwazvo maererano nekubatsira kwevanhu. Huye, chiuto chinowanzo taura chinodhura zvakanyanya. Kuunganidza masimba akaenzana, kuatumira mhiri kwemakungwa kwenguva yakareba hakugone kuitwa kunze kwekushandisa zvakanyanya. Panyaya yeHondo yeIraq, izvo zvatiinazvo ndizvo zvakanzi "iyo trillion-dollars yehondo." Joseph Stiglitz weColumbia naLinda Bilmes vanofungidzirwa muna2008 mutengo wenguva refu weIraq Hondo pamadhora mazana matatu emadhora. (3) Iwo manhamba echokwadi haachashandi, nekuti apfuura makore gumi apfuura, asi $ 2 trillion yakawanda kwazvo kana iwe uchifunga nezvazvo. Muchokwadi, yakakura kupfuura iyo yakasanganiswa yakazara yemukati chigadzirwa cheGreat Britain panguva ino yazvino. Uye mumwe anoshamisika kuti ndeapi mhando yemapurojekiti erubatsiro atingave takaita ne $ 3 tiririyoni, pane kuiparadza muhondo isina chaakaita kunze kwekuuraya mazana emazana ezviuru zvevanhu uye kugadzirisa nzvimbo.
Uye idzi hondo hadzisi pamusoro pezve chero Libya, kana Iraq, kana Afghanistan. Afghanistan yave pedyo nekupera kwemakumi gumi emakore ehondo uye yechipiri gumi yekupindira kweUS. Izvi zvinogona kumhanya chaizvo kuva hondo yakarebesa munhoroondo yeUS, kana zvisiri izvo. Zvinoenderana nekuti unotsanangura sei hondo refu, asi zviri kukwira kumusoro uko. Uye mumwe anogona kufunga nezve ese marudzi ezvinhu izvo zvaigona kunge zvakaitwa neimwe yemari iyi, semuenzaniso, kubaiwa kwevana, avo vari pasi-jekiseni. (Maminitsi maviri ndizvo here? Miniti imwe.) Mumwe anogona kufunga nezvevanhu vasina mishonga yakakwana kusanganisira munyika yangu yeUnited States, uko vanhu vazhinji vanoenda vasina mishonga yakakodzera. Sezvo vezvehupfumi vachiziva, iwe une mukana wemari. Kana iwe ukashandisa mari pachinhu chimwe, ungangodaro usina kuiwanira chimwe. Uye ini ndinofunga izvo zvatave tichiita kupamhidzira kupindira zvakare pasina chakakosha mibairo yerubatsiro kana mashoma kwazvo andinogona kuona. Ndinofungidzira ndakanakidzwa nekufananidzwa kwekurapa kuno uye kusimbiswa kwechiremba, saka ndizvozvo ndosaka ndakatumidza bhuku rangu "Kutanga Usakuvadza." Uye chikonzero ndechekuti mukurapa haungo enda unovhiya murwere nekuti murwere ari kutambura. Unofanirwa kuita ongororo chaiyo yekuti oparesheni yacho ichave yakanaka here kana kuti yakaipa. Kuvhiya kunogona zvirokwazvo kukuvadza vanhu, uye mukurapa dzimwe nguva chinhu chakanakisa kuita hapana. Uye pamwe pano, chinhu chekutanga chatinofanira kuita nematambudziko ekubatsira vanhu hachisi kuita kuti vawedzere, zvinova ndizvo zvatakaita. Ndatenda.
Wilkinson
Ndinokutendai, Purofesa. Michael, mharidzo yako yemaminitsi gumi inogona kutanga kana wagadzirira.
Michael Chertoff
Chirevo apa ndechekuti kupindira kwevanhu kwakapesana nemazwi, uye ndinofunga mhinduro kune izvo kwete. Dzimwe nguva hazvina kurairwa zvakanaka, dzimwe nguva, zvinokurudzirwa zvakanaka. Dzimwe nguva hazvishande, dzimwe nguva zvinoshanda. Izvo hazviite zvinoshanda zvakakwana, asi hapana muhupenyu chinoita. Saka, regai nditange ndatanga kutaura nezvemienzaniso mitatu yakapihwa napurofesa: Afghanistan, Iraq, neLibya. Ndiri kuzokuudza iwe Afghanistan yanga isiri kupindira kwevanhu. Afghanistan yaive mhedzisiro yekurwiswa kwakaitwa kuUnited States kwakauraya vanhu zviuru zvitatu, uye zvaive pachena uye nemaune kuyedza kubvisa munhu akatanga kurwisa kubva mukukwanisa kuzviitazve. Kana iwe uchifunga kuti zvaisakosha, ini ndinokuudza kubva pane zvakaitika kwauri: Patakaenda kuAfghanistan, takawana marabhoritari eAl Qaeda aishandisa kuyedza makemikari uye vamiririri vezvipfuyo pamhuka, kuti vagone kuendesa avo kurwisa vanhu vari Madokero. Dai isu tisina kuenda kuAfghanistan, tingave tichifemera avo izvozvi sezvatinotaura. Izvi hazvisi zvekubatsira nenzira yekuda kubatsira. Urwu ndirwo rudzi rwekutanga, chengetedzo yepakati iyo nyika dzese dzinokwereta vagari vayo.
Iraq zvakare ndinofunga mumaonero angu kwete kunyanya kupindira kwevanhu. Tinogona kukakavadzana mumakakatanwa akasiyana chii chakaitika nehungwaru, uye kunyangwe zvaive zvisiri izvo zvachose kana zvishoma zvisizvo, maererano nekugona kwezvombo zvekuparadza kukuru muIraq. Asi zvirinani ndiko kwaive kufunga kukuru kwaipinda. Zvinogona kunge zvakakanganisa, uye kune mhando dzese dzekupokana kuti nzira yaiitwa nayo haina kuitwa zvakanaka. Asi zvakare, yakanga isiri yerubatsiro. Libya yaive kupindira kwevanhu. Uye dambudziko neLibya ndinofunga chikamu chechipiri cheizvo zvandiri kuda kutaura, izvo zvisiri zvese zvekupindira kwevanhu zvakanaka. Uye kuti uite sarudzo yekupindira, iwe unofanirwa kufunga nezvezvakakosha zvinhu zvezvauri kutarisana nazvo. Ndeipi zano rako uye chinangwa chako, une kujekerwa nezvazvo here? Chii chako kuziva nezve izvo mamiriro ari munzvimbo yauri kupindira mairi chaizvo? Ndeapi kugona kwako uye kuda kwako kuzvipira kuona zvinhu kusvika kumagumo? Uyezve, kune chiyeroi iwe chaunowana rutsigiro kubva kunharaunda yepasi rose? Libya muenzaniso wenyaya apo, nepo chishuwo chingave chaive chekubatsira, zvinhu izvi hazvina kunyatsofungidzirwa. Uye kana ndikakwanisa kutaura kudaro, Michael Hayden neni takagadzira pfungwa iyi mune oped nguva pfupi mushure mekunge maitiro aya atanga. (3) Kuti chikamu chiri nyore chaive chiri kubvisa Gaddafi. Chikamu chakaomarara chaizove icho chinoitika mushure mekubviswa kwaGadaffi. Uye saka pano ndinobvumirana napurofesa. Dai mumwe munhu akatarisa zvinhu zvina zvandataura, vangadai vakati: "Haa unoziva, isu hatinyatso kuziva, hatina kunyatsoziva kuburikidza nezvinoitika pasina Gaddafi?" Chii chinoitika kune vese vanonyanyisa vari mutirongo? Chii chinoitika kune vese mamenari aakabhadharirwa, ndiani zvino asiri kubhadharwa futi? Uye izvo zvakatungamira kune mamwe emhedzisiro yakaipa. Iniwo ndinofunga paive nekutadza kunzwisisa kuti kana iwe uchibvisa mudzvanyiriri, une mamiriro asina kugadzikana. Uye sekutaura kwaColin Powell, kana iwe ukaityora iwe wakazvitenga. Kana iwe uchizobvisa mudzvanyiriri, iwe unofanirwa kuti uve wakagadzirira kuisa mari mukugadzikana. Kana iwe usina kugadzirira kuita iyo mari, iwe hauna bhizinesi rekumubvisa.
Nenzira yemuenzaniso kune rimwe divi, kana iwe ukatarisa semuenzaniso kupindira muSierra Leone neIvory Coast. Sierra Leone yaive 2000. Paive neUnited Front iyo yaifambira mberi kuguta guru. VaBritish vakapinda, vakavadzinga. Vakavatyaira kudzokera. Uye nekuda kweizvozvo, Sierra Leone yakakwanisa kudzikama, uye ivo pakupedzisira vakakuvadza kuita sarudzo. Kana kuIvory Coast, iwe wanga uine munhu aripo akaramba kugamuchira kuti akundwa sarudzo. Akatanga kushandisa chisimba kuvanhu vake. Paive nekupindira. Akazopedzisira asungwa, uye ikozvino Ivory Coast ine democracy. Saka zvekare, pane nzira dzekubatsira rubatsiro dzinogona kubudirira, asi kwete kana iwe ukasateerera kune izvo zvina hunhu zvandakataura nezvazvo.
Zvino, rega ndikupe muenzaniso kubva kune chimwe chinhu chatiri kutarisana nacho nhasi, uye ndizvo zviri kuitika muSyria. Uye ngatibvunzei mubvunzo kana makore akati wandei apfuura, maRussia asati abatikana zvakanyanya, maIran vasati vabatanidzwa zvakanyanya, kana kupindira kwaizoita mutsauko pakuponesa chaiwo makumi ezviuru zvevanhu kubva kuurawa, vanhu vasina mhosva nemabhomba. uye zvombo zvemakemikari, pamwe nedambudziko hombe rekutama. Uye ini ndinofunga mhinduro ndeiyi: Dai tanga taita muSyria zvatakaita kuchamhembe kweIraq mu1991, takagadzira nzvimbo isina kubhururuka uye isina-go zone yeAssad nevanhu vake, uye dai takazviita kare, isu tingave akadzivisa izvo zvatinoona zvichiitika uye zvichiramba zvichiitika mudunhu. Saka, ikozvino ndave kuzozvitarisa kubva kune imwe lenzi: Chii chinoitika kana iwe ukasapindira, sezvandinokurudzira kuti tingave takaita muSyria? Zvakanaka kwete chete iwe une dambudziko revanhu, iwe une dambudziko rekuchengetedza. Nekuti semhedzisiro yekusanyatso simbisa chero yemirawo yandakambotaura nezvayo uye zvisinei nenyaya yekuti Mutungamiri Obama vakati paive nemutsara mutsvuku nezve zvombo zvemakemikari uye ipapo mutsetse wakanyangarika pakashandiswa zvombo zvemakemikari. Nekuda kwekuti isu hatina kumanikidza aya matanho ekubatsira, isu takanga tisina chete nerufu rwakawanda, asi isu takave nemhirizhonga iyo yasvika mumoyo weEurope. Chikonzero icho EU ikozvino yave nedambudziko rekutama inyaya yekuti, uye pamwe nechinangwa, maRussia pamwe nevaSyria vakaita nemaune kudzinga vanhu kunze kwenyika uye kuvamanikidza kuenda kumwe kunhu. Vazhinji vavo vava muJoridhani uye vari kuisa kuJorodhani, asi vazhinji vavo vari kuedza kupinda muEurope. Uye handina chokwadi chekuti Putin akanzwisisa kana kukurumidza kuzivikanwa, kunyangwe dai chaisave chinangwa chake chepakutanga, kuti kana iwe uchinge wagadzira dambudziko rekutama, urikugadzira kusagadzikana uye kusawirirana mukati memudzivisi wako mukuru, inova Europe. Uye izvo zvine simba rekudzikamisa, mhedzisiro yatinoramba tichiona nhasi.
Uye saka, chimwe chezvinhu zvandiri kuda kutaura kuti kuva akatendeseka, ndipo patinotaura nezve kupindira kwevanhu, panowanzo kuve nekusagadzikana kwazviri, asi kutaura chokwadi pane zvakare kuzvifarira. Nzvimbo dzekusagadzikana idzo nzvimbo dzinoshanda magandanga, uye iwe waona Isis kusvika nguva pfupi yadarika yaive nenharaunda munzvimbo dzeSyria nedzimwe nzvimbo dzeIraq dzisina kutongwa zvakanaka. Iyo inogadzira matambudziko ekufambisa uye matambudziko akafanana, ayo anozove nekukanganisa kugadzikana uye kurongeka kwakanaka kwenyika yese. Uye zvakare zvinogadzira zvichemo uye zvishuwo zvekubhadhara izvo zvinowanzo kukonzera mhirizhonga inoramba ichienderera ichidzokorora, uye unozviona izvo muRwanda.
Saka, mhedzisiro yangu ndeiyi: Haasi ese mapindiro erubatsiro anofanirwa, kwete ese mapindiro erubatsiro anofungidzirwa zvakanaka uye akaitwa nemazvo. Asi nechiratidzo chimwe chete, havasi vese vari kukanganisa kana kuurayiwa zvisina kukodzera. Uye zvakare, ini ndinodzokera kuna 1991 uye iyo isina-kubhururuka nzvimbo uye no-go zone muKurdistan semuenzaniso weiyo yakashanda. Iko kiyi ndeiyi: Jekesa kuti sei urikupinda; usarerutse mutengo wezvauri kuita; uve nekwaniso uye kuzvipira kuona kuti unokwanisa kubata izvo zvinodhura uye kuzadzisa mhedzisiro yawakazvisarudzira. Ita shuwa kuti iwe unoziva nezve mamiriro ari pasi, saka iwe unoita zvine musoro kuongorora. Uye pakupedzisira tora rutsigiro rwekunze, usazviende wega. Ini ndinofunga mumamiriro ezvinhu aya, kupindira kwerubatsiro hakugone kubudirira chete, asi kunogona kuponesa hupenyu hwakawanda uye kuita kuti nyika yedu ive yakachengeteka. Ndatenda.
Mubvunzo (Wilkinson)
Ndinokutendai, Michael. Ndinokutendai mose nekuda kwemashoko okutanga. Ini ndichabvunza mubvunzo mumwe chete, uye ipapo tichaenda kumibvunzo kubva kuvateereri. Mubvunzo wangu ndeiyi: Imi mose makataura mienzaniso yezvakaitika kare. Asi iwe ungati here kuongororwa kwakanaka kunowanzoita dambudziko ndechokuti hapangambovi nepurogiramu yakareba yenguva refu, zvinangwa zvakakwana zvakakwana, zvinokurudzira zvakakwana, kana kuongororwa-kukwana kwakakwana kunopesana nekuti masangano ega nemasangano epasi rose zvinokanganisa. Uye ivo vachagara vachiita zvikanganiso. Uye kukanganisa kwemapoka iwayo kunoreva kuti kupindira kwebatsiri kunofanira kupesana nemashoko. Saka, Michael, kana uchida kupindura.
Pindura (Chertoff)
Mhinduro yangu ndeiyi: Kusaita chiito. Vamwe vanhu vanofunga kana iwe usingaite chimwe chinhu icho chiri munzira yekurega. Asi kana ukasaita chimwe chinhu, chimwe chinhu chichaitika. Saka, semuenzaniso Franklin Roosevelt anga afunga kusabatsira maBritish muna 1940 neLend Lease, nekuti "handizive kuti ndiri kukanganisa here kana kuti kwete," izvo zvingadai zvakakonzera mhedzisiro yakasiyana nekuremekedza World. Hondo II. Handifunge kuti tinenge tichiti "zvakanaka asi kwaive kusaita, saka zvaive zvisina basa." Ini ndinofunga kusaita inzira yekuita. Uye pese paunoratidzwa nesarudzo, iwe unofanirwa kuyera mhedzisiro kusvika paunogona kuzviratidza, kubva kune vaviri kuita chimwe chinhu uye kurega kuita chimwe chinhu.
Mhinduro (Gibbs)
Zvakanaka, ini ndinofunga kuti hongu kusaita inzira yekuita, asi onus inofanira kugara iri pamunhu inotsigira kupindira. Nekuti isu ngatinyatso kujekesa pane izvi: Kupindira chiito chehondo. Kupindira kwerubatsiro kungori kutuka. Patinotsigira kupindira kwevanhu, tiri kukurudzira hondo. Sangano rekupindira ibato rehondo. Uye zvinoita sekunge kwandiri avo vanotsigira kurwisa hondo havana mutoro pavari weuchapupu. Mutoro weuchapupu unofanirwa kunge uri kune avo vanotsigira kushandiswa kwemhirizhonga, uye chaizvo zviyero zvinofanirwa kunge zvakakwirira pakushandisa mhirizhonga. Uye ini ndinofunga tinogona kuona kuti yakashandiswa zvakanyanyisa zvisina basa munguva yakapfuura kusvika padanho rinoshamisa.
Uye dambudziko rakakosha rauinaro mune zvishoma zvidiki - semuenzaniso 1991 isina-kubhururuka nzvimbo pamusoro peIraq - zvinhu izvi zvinoitika munyika chaiye, kwete mune yekunyepedzera nyika. Uye munyika chaiye iyoyo, United States inozviona sesimba guru, uye panogara paine mubvunzo wekuvimbika kweAmerica. Uye kana iyo US ikaita hafu yezviyero, senzvimbo isina kubhururuka, pachagara paine kumanikidza kuUnited States kubva kumapoka akasiyana siyana mubumbiro rezvekunze kutora danho rakawanda rekugadzirisa dambudziko iri zvachose. Nekudaro kudiwa kweimwe hondo neIraq mu2003, ichiunza njodzi huru. Ndinonetseka zvikuru pandinonzwa vanhu vachikurukura "ngatingoitai kupindira kushoma, zvinongomira ipapo," nekuti kazhinji hazvigumiri ipapo. Iko kune iyo quagmire mhedzisiro. Iwe unopinda mune iyo quagmire, uye iwe unowedzera kudzika uye wakadzika mukati meiyo quagmire. Uye pachagara paine avo vanotsigira kudzika nekudzika kupindira.
Ini ndinofungidzira imwezve poindi: Ini ndaida kupindura kune chikumbiro icho chinowanzoitika kuti iyo Iraq neAfghanistan hondo dzaisave chaizvo nzira dzekubatsira. Ichokwadi kuti izvi zvaive kune imwe nhanho, zvese kupindira zvaive pamwe chikamu chechinyakare kufarira nyika, realpolitik, nezvimwe zvakadaro. Asi kana iwe ukatarisa kumashure kuchinyorwa, zviri pachena kuti zvese zviri zviviri zvakaruramiswa muchidimbu senzira yekubatsira, zvese neBush manejimendi pamwe nevazhinji vadzidzi. Ndine pano pamberi pangu vhoriyamu rakapepetwa rakaburitswa neUniversity yeCalifornia Press, uye ndinotenda gore ra2005, rakadanwa Nyaya yeChinodiwa: Mhirizhonga yeHindu yeHondo muIraq. "(4) Ingo tsvaga neGoogle pane" nharo dzevanhu dzehondo muIraq, "uye ichi chaive chikamu chikuru chemufananidzo. Ini ndinofunga chinguva chekunyorazve nhoroondo kutaura kuti kupindira kwerubatsiro kwanga kusiri chinhu chakakosha munharo dzehondo muIraq kana Afghanistan. Vakanga vari chikamu chikuru chehondo mbiri idzi. Uye ini ndingati mhedzisiro iyi inoshoresa zano rekupindira kwevanhu.
Mubvunzo (Vateereri)
Ndatenda, saka imi mese mataura nezve mimwe mienzaniso yezvakaitika uye ndinoda kunzwa maonero enyu ese nezve mamiriro ari kuenderera mberi muVenezuela. Uye hutongi hwaTrump uye zvirongwa nemishumo zvabuda kuti vangave nehurongwa hwekushandisa simba remauto ipapo uye kuti ungazviongorora sei maererano nemaonero ese awakagovana.
Pindura (Chertoff)
Nekudaro, ini ndinofunga zviri kuitika muVenezuela kutanga kwezvose ndinoreva kuti pane pachena hutongi hwezvematongerwo enyika. Uye sekutaura kwandaita handifunge kuti zvematongerwo enyika nyaya chikonzero chekupindira muchiuto. Kune zvakare chinhu chekubatsira pano. Vanhu vari kufa nenzara. Asi ini handizive isu tiri padanho redambudziko revanhu ratakamboona mune zvimwe zviitiko. Saka, mhinduro yangu ipfupi ichave iri: Handifunge kuti tasangana pachikumbaridzo chekuva nehurukuro chaiyo pamusoro pekupindira kwerubatsiro muchiuto.
Izvi hazvireve kuti hapana nzira dzisiri dzechiuto dzekupindira, kungova pachena kuti titendese mufananidzo kunze. Kune akawanda maturusi mubhokisi rematurusi paunosangana nekupindira. Kune masanctions, economical sanctions. Iko kune kungatove kushandiswa kwecyber maturusi senzira yekuve nekukanganisa pane zviri kuitika. Iko kune mukana mune dzimwe nguva dzezviito zvepamutemo, semuenzaniso International Criminal Court kana chimwe chinhu. Saka, zvese izvi zvinofanirwa kutorwa sechikamu chebhokisi rekushandisa. Dai ndaive ndakatarisa kuVenezuela, ndichifungidzira kuti yakaita, iyo yandinosimbisa haina, kusvika padanho rekupindira kwerubatsiro, iwe unofanirwa kubva waenzanisa zvinhu zvakaita sekuti: Pane endgame yatinoona here kana zano ratinoona kuti ribudirire? Tine masimba ekuzviita here? Tine rutsigiro rwekunze? Ini ndinofunga vese avo vangangopokana nazvo. Izvi hazvireve kuti hazvigone kuchinja, asi zviyero zveizvi handifunge kuti zvasvika padanho rekuti chiuto chinonzwisisika kana chingangoitika.
Mhinduro (Gibbs)
Zvakanaka, chinhu chakanyanya kukosha chaunoda kuziva nezveVenezuela ndechekuti ihwo hupfumi husingazivikanwe hwekutengesa mafuta, uye pange paine donhwe mumutengo wemafuta kubvira 2014. Ini zvechokwadi ndinopa kuti zvakawanda zviri kuitika izvozvi imhosva Maduro nezviito zvehutongi zvaanga achitora, pamwe nekutadza kutonga zvakanaka, huwori, zvichingodaro. Zvizhinji zvezvange zvichiitika nekuverenga kwakaringana, nechero kuverengwa kune ruzivo, zvinokonzerwa nemitengo yemafuta yakaderera.
Inonongedzera kune ini ndinofunga nyaya hombe, ndiyo nzira iyo matambudziko ehupenyu anowanzo kukonzerwa nematambudziko ezvehupfumi. Nhaurirano dzeRwanda dzinenge dzisingambotaure nezvekuti kuuraya rudzi - uye ndinofunga kuti kwaive kuuraya vanhu muRwanda - kuurayiwa kwakaitwa vaHutu nevaTutsi kwakaitika panguva yedambudziko rakakura rehupfumi rakakonzerwa nekuparara kwekofi mitengo. Zvekare, hupfumi husinga tsanangurike hwaive hwakavimbika kanenge kofi chete. Kofi mitengo inodonha, iwe unowana dambudziko rezvematongerwo enyika. Yugoslavia yaive nedambudziko rakakura rezvehupfumi nyika isati yapararira ikadzika mugehena. Isu tinoziva nezve kuburukira kugehena, vanhu vazhinji havazive nezve dambudziko rehupfumi.
Nechimwe chikonzero vanhu vanoona economics ichinetsa, uye nekuti iri inofinha uye kupindira kwemauto kunoratidzika kunge kunonakidza, isu tinofunga kuti mhinduro ndeyekutumira mune iyo 82nd Airborne Division. Ipo pamwe zvingadai zvakave nyore uye zvakachipa zvakanyanya uye zvakapusa uye zvirinani kubva pakuona kwevanhu kubatsira kugadzirisa dambudziko rehupfumi; kukoshesa kwakanyanya kunoiswa pakuomarara muhurongwa hwepasi rose hwehupfumi uye zvinokanganisa zvakanyanya zvematongerwo enyika kusagadzikana kune nyika zhinji. Nhoroondo yezvakaitika inodikanwa pano: Kune zvese zvinogara zvichitaurwa, zvinodzokororwa kuTatu Reich uye kuHondo Yenyika II, izvo zvatinonzwa kakawanda uye zvakare uye zvakare, vanhu vanowanzo kanganwa kuti chimwe chezvinhu zvakatiunzira Adolph Hitler chaive Chikuru Kushungurudzika. Chero kuverenga kunonzwisisika kwenhoroondo yeWeimar Germany kungave kuti pasina Kushungurudzika, iwe ungadai usina kuwana kusimuka kweNazi. Nekudaro, ini ndinofunga kugadziriswa kukuru kwenyaya dzehupfumi munyaya yeVenezuela - Kunyangwe dai United States yaizopidigura Maduro nenzira dzipi nedzipi vodzitsiva neumwe munhu, kuti mumwe munhu angadai achizobata nenyaya yemafuta mashoma. mitengo nemhedzisiro inokuvadza pahupfumi, izvo zvingaramba zvisina kugadziriswa nekupindira kwevanhu, kunyangwe tichizvidaidza izvozvo kana chimwewo chinhu.
Ini ndinofungidzira imwe pfungwa nezve United States neVenezuela ndeyekuti United Nations yakatumira mumiriri pasi ipapo ndokushora zvirango zveUS sekusimbisa zvakanyanya dambudziko revanhu. Nekudaro, kupindira kuri kuitwa neUnited States - hupfumi panguva ino zvakanyanya, pane kuita zvechiuto - kuri kuita kuti zvinhu zviwedzere, uye izvo zviri pachena kuti zvinofanirwa kumira. Kana isu tichifarira kubatsira vanhu veVenezuela, zvirokwazvo United States yaisazoda kuita kuti zviwedzere.
David N. Gibbs ndiye Purofesa weNhoroondo, Yunivhesiti yeArizona, uye yakabudisa zvikuru pamusoro pehukama hwepasi pose hweA Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, uye yekare Yugoslavia. Iye zvino ari kunyora bhuku rake rechitatu, pakusimuka kweUnited States conservatism munguva ye1970s.
(1) Gilbert Burnham, et al, "Kufa mushure me 2003 Kurwiswa kweIraq: Muchinjikwa Chikamu Chikamu Chekuongorora Sumbu Sample Ongororo," Lancet 368, no. 9545, 2006. Cherechedza kuti Lancet'Kufungidzira kwakanyanya kwekufa kwakanyanyisa nekuda kwekupinda kwacho kwakanyanya kupfuura kwandataura pamusoro. Nhamba chaiyo ndeye 654,965, pane iyo 560,000 yandakapa.
(2) Linda J. Bilmes naJoseph E. Stiglitz, The Three Trillion Dollar War: The True Cost of Iraq Conflict. New York: Norton, 2008.
(3) Michael Chertoff naMichael V. Hayden, "Chii Chinoitika mushure mekubviswa kwaGadaffi?" Washington Post, April 21, 2011.
(4) Thomas Cushman, ed., Nyaya yeChinodiwa: Mhirizhonga yeHindu yeHondo muIraq. Berkeley: Yunivhesiti yeCalifornia Press, 2005.
