Scientific American: Iyo US Inofanira Kutsvaga Kupedza Hondo Dzese

Musoja weAfghanistan anomira akachengetedza mauto eUS achiongorora imba yakasiiwa mudunhu reKandahar. Chikwereti: Behrouz Mehri Getty Images

NaJohn Horgan, Scientific American, May 14, 2021

Pane 3 nzvimbo dzichiri kuwanikwa mukirabhu yebhuku raJohn riri kuuya online

Vazhinji vevadzidzi vangu vakazvarwa mushure mehondo yeUS kuAfghanistan yanga yatoenderera. Zvino Mutungamiri Joe Biden akazoti: Zvakwana! Achizadzisa kuzvipira kwakaitwa naakafanotangira (uye achiwedzera nguva yekupedzisira), Biden akavimbisa dhonza mauto ese eUS kubva kuAfghanistan naGunyana 11, 2021, makore makumi maviri chaiwo mushure mekurwiswa kwakamutsa kupinda.

Pundits, zvakafanotaurwa, vakashoropodza danho raBiden. Vanoti kubvisa kweUS kuchadaro kukuvadza vakadzi veAfghan, kunyangwe hazvo, sekutaura kwemutori wenhau Robert Wright, Afghanistan inogarwa neUS yatove "pakati penzvimbo dzakaipisisa pasi rose kuve mukadzi. ” Vamwe vanoti kubvumidzwa kweUS kukundwa kuchaita kuti zviomere kuhwina rutsigiro rwekupindira kwemauto mune ramangwana. Ini zvirokwazvo ndinovimba kudaro.

Biden, uyo akatsigira kupinda yeAfghanistan, haigone kudaidza hondo kuti kukanganisa, asi ndinogona. Iyo Mariro yeHondo Project paYunivhesiti yeBrown vanofungidzira kuti hondo, iyo yaiwanzodira muPakistan, yauraya vanhu vari pakati pe238,000 ne241,000, vanodarika 71,000 vacho vaive vanhuwo zvavo. Vazhinji vanhuwo zvavo vakatera ku "hosha, kurasikirwa kwekuwana chikafu, mvura, zvivakwa, uye / kana mimwe mhedzisiro yehondo."

IUS yarasikirwa nemazana maviri nemakumi mana nemaviri emazana emauto nemazana matatu nemakumi mapfumbamwe nemakumi matatu nematanhatu, uye yashandisa $ 2,442 trillion kuhondo. Mari iyoyo, Zvinodhura zveHondo zvinoratidzira, haisanganisiri "kuchengetwa kweupenyu hwevarwi vemuAmerica" ​​vehondo pamwe ne "mubhadharo wenguva yemberi yemari yakakweretwa kutsigira hondo." Uye chii chakaitwa nehondo? Izvo zvakaita kuti dambudziko rakaipa riwedzere. Pamwe chete ne kupinda kweIraq, Hondo yeAfghan yakadzora tsitsi dzepasirese kuUS mushure mekurwiswa kwe9 / 11 uye yakaparadza hunhu hwayo.

Panzvimbo pokubvisa hugandanga hweMuslim, veUS vakawedzera nekuuraya zviuru zvevanhu vechiMuslim. Funga nezvechiitiko ichi cha2010, chandinodoma mubhuku rangu Kuguma kweHondo: maererano ne New York Times, Mauto akasarudzika eUS vakapamba musha weAfghan vakapfura vakauraya vanhu vashanu, kusanganisira vakadzi vaviri vane nhumbu. Vakapupura vakati varwi veAmerica, vaona kukanganisa kwavo, "vakachera mabara mumitumbi yevafi vachiedza kuvanza zvainge zvaitika."

Zvakanaka zvinogona kunge zvichiri kuuya kubva pachiratidzo ichi chinotyisa kana chikatiita kuti titaure nezve magadzirisiro atingaite hondo dzese pakati penyika uye kwete chete "hondo yezuva," sesangano remumiriri World Beyond War anozviisa. Chinangwa cheiyi hurukuro chingave chekuumba rakakura, bipartisan rugare kufamba kunosanganisira maDemocrat nemaRepublicans, vakasununguka nevachengetedza, vanhu vekutenda nevasingatendi. Isu tese tichava takabatana mukuziva kuti rugare rwepasi rose, kure nekuva chiroto chepombi, chinhu chinodiwa pamwe nehunhu hunodiwa.

Sevadzidzi vakaita saSteven Pinker wacherekedza, nyika yatove shoma kuita sehondo. Zvinofungidzirwa kufa-zvine chekuita nehondo zvinopesana zvichienderana nekuti unotsanangura sei hondo uye kuverenga vakaurayiwa. Asi fungidziro zhinji dzinobvumirana kuti kufa kwegore negore zvine chekuita nehondo mukati memakumi maviri emakore apfuura zvakaderera zvakanyanya- nematanho angangoita maviri ehukuru-kupfuura mune yakazadzwa neropa-yekutanga hafu yezana ramakore rechi20. Uku kuderera kunoshamisa kunofanira kutiita chivimbo chekuti tinogona kupedza hondo pakati penyika kamwechete uye zvachose.

Isu tinofanirwawo kutora moyo kubva kutsvagurudzo nenyanzvi senge anthropologist Douglas P. Fry weYunivhesiti yeNorth Carolina kuGreensboro. MunaNdira, iye nevamwe vasere vakaburitsa chidzidzo mu muzvarirwo sei "Masangano ari mukati merunyararo masisitimu anodzivirira hondo uye anovaka hukama hwakanaka hwehukama, ”Sekutaura kunoita musoro webepa. Vanyori vanoona akawanda anonzi "masystem erunyararo," anotsanangurwa se "masumbu enharaunda dzakavakidzana dzisingarwisane." Masisitimu erunyararo anoratidza kuti, zvinopesana neizvo vanhu vazhinji vanotenda, hondo irikunzi isingadzivisike.

Kazhinji, runyararo masisitimu anobuda kubva kwenguva refu yekurwira. Mienzaniso inosanganisira mubatanidzwa wemadzinza eNative America anozivikanwa sehurongwa hweIroquois; madzinza emazuva ano mubheseni reBrazil kumusoro kweXingu; nyika dzeNordic dzekuchamhembe kweEurope, idzo dzisina kurwa dzichipesana kweanopfuura mazana maviri emakore; makandoni eSwitzerland nehumambo hweItari, izvo zvakabatana mumarudzi avo muzana re19th century; uye European Union. Uye ngatirege kukanganwa nyika dzeUnited States, idzo dzisina kushandisa simba rinouraya kubva kune mumwe nemumwe kubva muna 1865.

Boka raFry rinoratidza zvinhu zvitanhatu zvinosiyanisa runyararo nemaitiro asina rugare. Izvi zvinosanganisira “kuzivikanwa kukuru; kubatana kwakabatana munharaunda; kudyidzana; tsika dzisiri-dzehondo nemitemo; ngano dzisiri dzehondo, tsika, uye zviratidzo; uye hutungamiriri hwerunyararo. ” Chinhu chakanyanya kuwanda, Fry, et al., Yakawanikwa, kuzvipira kwakagovaniswa ku "zvisiri zvehondo tsika uye hunhu," izvo zvinogona kuita hondo mukati mehurongwa. “Zvisingafungidzike. ” Tatsveyamisa mabhii. Sekutaura kunoita boka raFry, kana Colorado neKansas vakapinda mukakava pamusoro pekodzero dzemvura, "vanosangana mudare kwete panzvimbo yehondo."

Zvaakawana zvinotsigira mhedzisiro yandakasvika ndichinyora Kuguma kweHondo: chinonyanya kukonzera hondo ihondo. Semunyori wechiuto John Keegan akazviisa, Hondo inotangira kwete kubva hunhu hwedu sehondo or makwikwi ezve zviwanikwa asi kubva ku "kutanga kwehondo." Nekudaro kuti tibvise hondo, isu hatifanirwe kuita chero chinhu chinoshamisa, sekubvisa capitalism nekuumba hurumende yepasi rose yemagariro, kana kudzima "varwi majini”Kubva kuDNA yedu. Isu tinongoda kuramba zvechiuto semhinduro kumagakava edu.

Izvo zviri nyore kutaura pane kuzviita. Kunyangwe hondo yakadzikira, chiuto chinoramba chiripo yakadzika midzi mutsika yemazuva ano. "Iye zviito zvevarwi vedu hazvife mumazwi evanyanduri vedu," anthropologist Margaret Mead akanyora muna 1940. "[T] matoyi evana vedu anoenzanisirwa nezvombo zvemusoja."

Nyika dzenyika dzakapedza inenge $ 1.981 trillion pa "kudzivirira" muna 2020, kukwira 2.6 muzana kubva pagore rapfuura, sekureva kweStockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Kuti vafambe kupfuura zvehondo, nyika dzinofanirwa kuona nzira yekudzora mauto nema arsenals nenzira inosimbisa kuchengetedzeka uye kuvaka ruvimbo. IUS, iyo inoverengera makumi matatu nemapfumbamwe muzana emashandisirwo emauto epasirese, inofanirwa kutungamira nzira. IUS inogona kuratidza kutendeka kwakanaka nekuvimbisa kucheka bhajeti rayo rekudzivirira nepakati, iti, 39. Kana iyo Biden manejimendi ikatora danho iri nhasi, bhajeti rayo raizoramba richidarika iro reChina neRussia rakabatanidzwa nemuganho une hutano.

Achiona kuti vaimbova mhandu vaiwanzove vabatsiri mukupindura kutyisidziro yakagovaniswa, Fry, et al., Vanonongedza kuti nyika dzese dzinotarisana nenjodzi dzekuputika uye shanduko yemamiriro ekunze. Kupindura pamwe chete mukutyisidzira uku kunogona kubatsira nyika kukudziridza "rudzi rwekubatana, kushandira pamwe, uye runyararo maitiro anozivikanwa ehurongwa hwerunyararo." Hondo pakati peUS neChina, Pakistan neIndia uye kunyangwe Israel nePalestine zvinogona kunge zvisinga fungidzike sezvazviri nhasi pakati peColorado neKansas. Kana dzimwe nyika dzisingachavhunduki, dzinenge dziine zviwanikwa zvekushandisa mukutarisira hutano, dzidzo, girinhi nezvimwe zvinoda kukurumidza, zvichiita kuti kusagadzikana kwevanhu kuve kushoma. Kungofanana nehondo inobereka hondo, rugare runobereka rugare.

Ini ndinoda kubvunza vadzidzi vangu: Tinogona here kupedza hondo? Chaizvoizvo, ndiwo mubvunzo usiri iwo. Mubvunzo wakakodzera ndewokuti: sei tinopedza hondo here? Kupedza hondo, iyo inoita zvikara zvedu, Inofanirwa kuve yehunhu hunodiwa, sekugumisa uranda kana kudzorwa kwevakadzi. Ngatitangei kutaura izvozvi nezve maitirwo azvo.