Makore anopfuura makumi matatu apfuura, muna Gumiguru 1986, vatungamiriri veUnited States neSoviet Union vakasangana kumusangano wenhoroondo muguta guru reIceland, Reykjavik. Musangano wacho wakatangwa nemutungamiriri weSoviet panguva iyoyo Mikhail Gorbachev, aidavira kuti “kuparara kwekuvimbana” pakati penyika mbiri idzi inogona kumiswa nekutanga nhaurirano nemutungamiri weUS, Ronald Reagan, pamusoro pezvinhu zvakakosha, pamusoro pezvose pamubvunzo wezvombo zvenyukireya.

Makumi matatu emakore zvichienda mberi, sezvo vatungamiriri veRussia neUnited States vachigadzirira musangano wavo wekutanga kubva musarudzo dzeUS 2016, musangano we1986 uchiri kuita. (Chikwata cheMutungamiriri wenyika, VaDonald Trump, charamba mishumo yevatori venhau yekuti musangano uyu ungatoitwa muReykjavik.) Kunyangwe pasina kana chibvumirano chimwe chakasainwa naGorbachev naReagan, kukosha kwenhoroondo yemusangano wavo kwakakura. Pasinei nekutadza kusinganzwisisike kwemusangano wavo, mutungamiri wenyika Reagan akadaidza "evil empire” uye purezidhendi wemuvengi asingachinji wegadziriro yechiKomonisiti akazarura nzira itsva muukama pakati pemasimba enyukireya.

Kutanga I Kubudirira

MuReykjavik, vatungamiri vemasimba makuru maviri vakatsanangura nzvimbo dzavo kune mumwe nemumwe uye, nekuita kudaro, vakakwanisa kutora kusvetukira kunoshamisa panhau dzenyukireya. Kwangopera gore, muna Zvita 1987, United States neUSSR dzakasaina chibvumirano chekubvisa zvombo zvepakati uye zvipfupi. Muna 1991, vakasaina yekutanga Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I).

Nhamburiko dzakaitwa mukunyora zvibvumirano izvi dzakanga dzakakura. Ndakatora chikamu mukugadzirira zvinyorwa zvezvibvumirano izvi pamatanho ese ehurukuro dzakapisa, mune izvo zvinodaidzwa kuti Small Five uye Big Five mafomati - pfupi kune akasiyana masangano eSoviet ane basa rekugadzira mutemo. KUTANGA Ndakatora makore anenge mashanu ebasa rakaoma. Peji imwe neimwe yeichi chinyorwa chakareba yakaperekedzwa namakumi emashoko omuzasi airatidzira mirangariro inopokanidzana yamativi maviri. Kubvumirana kwaifanira kuwanikwa papfungwa yese. Nomuzvarirwo, kwaizova kusingabviri kusvika pakubvumirana uku pasina kuda kwezvematongerwe enyika pamwero wakakwirira.

Pakupedzisira, chibvumirano chakanga chisati chamboitika chakarongeka uye chakasainwa, chimwe chinhu chinogona kuramba chichionekwa semuenzaniso wehukama pakati pevadzivisi vaviri. Zvakabva pachikumbiro chekutanga chaGorbachev chekudzikisa zvombo zvine hungwaru ne50 muzana: mapato akabvumirana kudzikisa zvombo zvenyukireya zvinenge zviuru gumi nezviviri imwe neimwe kusvika 12,000.

Hurongwa hwekuona chibvumirano hwaive hwechimurenga. Ichiri kubhuya fungidziro. Izvo zvaisanganisira zvingangoita zana zvakasiyana-siyana zvekugadzirisa pachimiro chemaitiro ezvombo zvinogumbura, akawanda ekuongorora-nzvimbo, uye kuchinjana kwedatha yetelemetry mushure mekutangwa kwega kwega kweintercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) kana submarine-yakatangwa ballistic missile (SLBM). Rudzi urwu rwekubudirana pachena muchikamu chakavanda rwakanga rusinganzwikwe pakati pevaimbova mhandu, kana kunyange muhukama pakati pevadyidzani vepedyo vakaita seUnited States, United Kingdom, neFrance.

Hapana mubvunzo kuti pasina START I, pangadai pasina START Itsva, iyo yakasainwa nemutungamiri weAmerica panguva iyoyo Barack Obama uye mutungamiri weRussia Dmitry Medvedev muna 2010 muPrague. START Ndakashanda sehwaro hweNew START uye ndakapa ruzivo rwakakosha pachibvumirano, kunyange zvazvo gwaro iri raifungidzira kuongorora gumi nesere chete pa-saiti (ICBM mabhesi, mabhesi epasi pemvura, uye mabhesi emhepo), makumi mana nembiri mamiriro ekugadzirisa, uye mashanu telemetry. data kuchinjana kweICBMs uye SLBMs pagore.

Maererano ne iyo yazvino data kuchinjanisa pasi peNew START, Russia parizvino ine mazana mashanu nesere akaiswa ICBMs, SLBMs, uye anorema mabhomba ane 508 warheads, uye United States ine 1,796 ICBMs, SLBMs, uye anorema mabhomba ane 681 warheads. Muna 1,367, mativi maviri aya anofanirwa kunge asingapfuure mazana manomwe akaiswa mabhomba uye mabhomba uye asingapfuure 2018 warheads. Chibvumirano ichi chicharamba chichishanda kusvika 700.

The START I Legacy Inoparadza

Zvisinei, nhamba idzi hadzinyatsoratidza mamiriro chaiwo ehukama pakati peRussia neUnited States.

Dambudziko nekushaikwa kwekufambira mberi mukutonga kwezvombo zvenyukireya hazvigone kupatsanurwa kubva pakuparara kwakanyanya muhukama pakati peRussia neWest kunokonzerwa nezviitiko muUkraine neSyria. Zvakadaro, muchikamu chenyukireya, dambudziko rakatanga kunyange zvisati zvaitika, nguva pfupi mushure megore ra2011, uye harisati ramboitika mumakore makumi mashanu kubva nyika mbiri idzi dzakatanga kushanda pamwe chete panyaya idzi. Munguva yakapfuura, mushure mekusaina chibvumirano chitsva, mapato anobatanidzwa angadai akatanga kubvunzana kutsva pamusoro pekuderedza zvombo. Nekudaro, kubvira 2011, hapana kubvunzana. Uye kana nguva yakawanda ichipfuura, kazhinji vakuru vakuru vanoshandisa izwi renyukireya mune zvavanotaura.

Muna Chikumi 2013, vari muBerlin, Obama akakoka Russia kuti isaine chibvumirano chitsva chine chinangwa chekudzikisira zvombo zvemapato zvakanyanya nechikamu chimwe muzvitatu. Pasi pezvikumbiro izvi, zvombo zveRussia neUS zvinogumbura zvingangogumira kune 1,000 warheads uye mazana mashanu akaiswa mota dzenyukireya.

Imwe pfungwa yakaitwa neWashington yekuwedzera kudzikiswa kwezvombo yakaitwa muna Ndira 2016. kukumbira vatungamiri venyika mbiri idzi nevezvematongerwo enyika vanozivikanwa uye masayendisiti kubva kuUnited States, Russia, neEurope, kusanganisira aimbova senator weUS, Sam Nunn, aimbova vatungamiriri vekudzivirira veUS neUK William Perry naLord Des Browne, mudzidzi Nikolay Laverov, aimbova mumiriri weRussia kuUnited States Vladimir Lukin. , mumiriri weSweden Hans Blix, aimbova mumiriri weSweden kuUnited States Rolf Ekéus, nyanzvi yefizikisi Roald Sagdeev, chipangamazano Susan Eisenhower, nevamwe vakati wandei. Kukwidzwa uku kwakarongwa pamusangano wakabatanidzwa weInternational Luxembourg Forum on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe uye Nuclear Threat Initiative muWashington pakutanga kwaZvita 2015 uye yakaunzwa pakarepo kuvatungamiriri vakuru venyika mbiri idzi.

Ichi chikarakadzo chakamutsa mhinduro yehasha kubva kuMoscow. Hurumende yeRussia yakanyora zvikonzero zvakati kuti sei yakaona nhaurirano neUnited States sezvisingabviri. Vaisanganisira, chekutanga, kukosha kwekuita zvibvumirano zvemarudzi akawanda nedzimwe nyika dzenyukireya; chechipiri, kuenderera mberi kwekutumirwa kweEurope neUnited States zvombo zvekudzivirira pasi rose; chechitatu, kuvapo kwekutyisidzira kunogona kuitika kwekuramwa kwekubvisa zvombo nehunyanzvi hwakajairika hwepamusoro-soro kurwisa mauto enyukireya eRussia; uye chechina, kutyisidzira kwemauto emuchadenga. Pakupedzisira, nyika dzekuMadokero, dzichitungamirwa neUnited States, dzakapomerwa mhosva yekutevedzera mutemo wezvirango zvakanyanya kuRussia nekuda kwemamiriro ezvinhu muUkraine.

Zvichitevera kudududza uku, zano idzva rakaiswa pamberi neUnited States kuti riwedzere KUTANGA Idzva kwemakore mashanu, danho rinogona kududzirwa sechirongwa chekuchengetedza kana pasina chibvumirano chitsva chakabvumiranwa. Iyi sarudzo inosanganisirwa muzvinyorwa zveNew START. Kuwedzera kwakakodzera zvakanyanya kupihwa mamiriro.

Nharo huru yekuwedzera ndeyekuti kushaikwa kwechibvumirano kunobvisa START I kubva kumutemo wepamutemo, izvo zvakabvumira mapato kuti adzore nekuvimbika kuita kwezvibvumirano kwemakumi emakore. Iyi dhizaini inosanganisa kutonga kweiyo nyika 'zvombo zvehurongwa, rudzi uye kuumbwa kwezvombo izvozvo, maficha enzvimbo dzemakomba, huwandu hwemotokari dzekutakura dzakaiswa uye misoro yehondo pazviri, uye huwandu hwemotokari dzisina kutumirwa. Hurongwa hwemutemo uhwu hunobvumirawo mapato kuti aise hurongwa hwenguva pfupi.

Sezvambotaurwa pamusoro apa, kwave nekuongorora kunosvika gumi nesere pakuonana pagore kubva muna 2011 yenzvimbo yega yega yepasi, gungwa, uye mhepo yezvitatu zvenyukireya uye zviziviso makumi mana nembiri pamusoro pemhando yemauto avo enyukireya. Kushaikwa kweruzivo pamusoro pemauto erumwe rutivi kunowanzokonzera kuwedzeredza kwehuviri hwehuwandu uye hwemhando yesimba reanopikisa, uye nesarudzo yekusimudzira kugona kwako kuitira kuti uvake kugona kwakakodzera kwekupindura. Iyi nzira inotungamira yakananga kumujaho wemaoko usingadzoreki. Zvine ngozi zvikuru kana zvichisanganisira zvombo zvenyukireya zvine hurongwa, sezvo zvichizokonzera kukanganisa kwekugadzikana kwazvaiitwa pakutanga. Ndosaka zvakakodzera kuwedzera KUTANGA Idzva kwemamwe makore mashanu kusvika 2026.

mhedziso

Zvisinei, zvingatova nani kusaina chibvumirano chitsva. Izvi zvinobvumira mapato kuti arambe aine hurongwa hwakatsiga asi achishandisa mari shoma pane yaizodiwa kuchengetedza mazinga ezvombo anotsanangurwa neNew START. Urongwa uhwu hwaizonyanya kubatsira kuRussia nekuti chibvumirano chinotevera chakasainwa, senge START I uye chibvumirano chiripo, chingangosanganisira kudzikiswa kwemauto enyukireya eUS uye kubvumira Russia kudzikisa mutengo wekuchengetedza chibvumirano chazvino. sekugadzira nekuvandudza mamwe marudzi ezvombo zvinokandwa.

Zviri kuvatungamiriri veRussia neUnited States kutora matanho anogoneka, anodiwa, uye ane musoro. Musangano weReykjavik kubva makore makumi matatu apfuura unoratidza zvinogona kuitwa kana vatungamiriri vaviri, vane nyika dzinonzi vavengi vasingagone, vakatora mutoro uye kuita kusimudzira kugadzikana kwepasirese uye kuchengetedzeka.

Sarudzo dzerudzi urwu dzinogona kutorwa nerudzi rwevatungamiriri vechokwadi avo, zvinosuruvarisa, vari kushomeka munyika yanhasi. Asi, kudimikira chiremba wepfungwa wekuAustria Wilhelm Stekel, mutungamiri akamira pamapfudzi ehofori anogona kuona kupfuura hofori yacho pachayo. Havafaniri kudaro, asi vaigona. Chinangwa chedu chinofanira kunge chiri chekuti vatungamiriri vemazuvano vanogara pamapfudzi ehofori vatarise kutarisa kure.